要通胀了，房价将在一段时间后大跌
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This is in Canada. no sunprime, if u can't pay at least 25% downpayment, you have to pay the house mortgage insurance. that is the main factor why the house market is more stable than that in US.
Ottawa house price is still much cheaper than other big cities (Toronto, Van) while the family income is higher or closer to those cities.
房价将在一段时间后大跌 never ever happened in Ottawa
FromVancouver
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Average income in Ottawa is "higher" than that in Van(because number of people never report their income from oversea) and Toronto, but the marketing is different. Here most are the mid-class people and it is difficult to afford over 500,000 price, but in Vancouver, local working (even working couple) people just buy appartment/townhouse or house far from city (like Kanata). Some rich people (not small number) from China, Taiwan, Indian, US, all of the world use cash to buy BMW, over $800,000 house. It is totally different from any city in Canada.
Look at the cars in street of van and Ottawa, u will know why the house price in Van is much higher than that in Ottawa.
So if the price in Ottawa go over 500,000, who buy it, can u afford that?, I cannot even if my family income is close to top 10% of Canadian family income (base on 2006 census, that was 140,000/year). It is not just house price, it has also higher property tax (much higher than that in Vancouver)
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My point is the house price in Ottawa is lower comparing other cities, it is impossible see 房价将在一段时间后大跌, not who can afford a house.
this is a good article to read.
House Price Survey | Toronto Condo and Real Estate Blog
Ottawa vs Washington, D.C. March 2009 (vs 2008)
• Prices are strong in both Ottawa and Washington, D.C., but Ottawa’s prices are trending up, while Washington’s prices are trending down. Price levels are significantly lower in Ottawa than Washington; however, it takes more than twice as long to sell a home in Washington than in Ottawa. Average prices in March 2009 were $302,131 in Ottawa, compared with $519,030 in Washington. Median prices in March 2009 were $277,250 in Ottawa, compared with $380,000 in Washington. Ottawa’s average and median prices increased 1% and 3% respectively, while Washington’s average and median prices declined 3% and 5% respectively.
• Average prices in the suburbs and nearby communities varied significantly, however selling time is much longer in Washington suburbs than Ottawa suburbs. In the Ottawa suburb of Kanata, the average price increased 1% to $277,995 while the median price declined 3% to $249,900. In Orleans, the average price increased 1% to $277,860 and the median price increased 14% to $273,000. In the Washington suburb of Boonsboro, the average price increased 10% to $321,480 and the median price increased 26% to $315,000, while in the suburb of Hagerstown the average price declined 24% to $169,959 and the median price declined 12% to $167,495
• Prices are significantly higher and the market much stronger in Toronto than in Chicago. In Toronto, the average price declined 4% to $394,099 and the median price dipped 2% to $325,000. In Chicago, the average price fell 34% to $249,901 and the median price dropped 39% to $180,000. It took an average of 37 days to sell a house in Toronto, compared to 168 days in Chicago.
• In the suburbs, Toronto suburbs performed similarly to Toronto, while Chicago suburbs were much stronger than Chicago itself
Vancouver vs Seattle March 2009 (vs 2008)
• Prices are significantly higher in Vancouver than Seattle. The average price was $636,785 in Vancouver compared with $426,825 in Seattle. The median price was $482,228 in Vancouver, compared with $367,000 in Seattle. However, Vancouver and Seattle had similar declines in average prices (-15% and -12% respectively) and median prices (-12% and -11%).
• All Vancouver and Seattle suburbs surveyed had declining prices, but price levels varied significantly. The Fraser Valley city of Langley, 30 minutes from Vancouver, had the strongest market with an average price decline of 14% to $383,631 and a median price decline of 13% to $338,500. Weakest of the four suburb markets surveyed was Tacoma, where the average price dropped 24% to $206,681 and median price declined 19% to $183,500.
this is a good article to read.
House Price Survey | Toronto Condo and Real Estate Blog
Ottawa vs Washington, D.C. March 2009 (vs 2008)
• Prices are strong in both Ottawa and Washington, D.C., but Ottawa’s prices are trending up, while Washington’s prices are trending down. Price levels are significantly lower in Ottawa than Washington; however, it takes more than twice as long to sell a home in Washington than in Ottawa. Average prices in March 2009 were $302,131 in Ottawa, compared with $519,030 in Washington. Median prices in March 2009 were $277,250 in Ottawa, compared with $380,000 in Washington. Ottawa’s average and median prices increased 1% and 3% respectively, while Washington’s average and median prices declined 3% and 5% respectively.
• Average prices in the suburbs and nearby communities varied significantly, however selling time is much longer in Washington suburbs than Ottawa suburbs. In the Ottawa suburb of Kanata, the average price increased 1% to $277,995 while the median price declined 3% to $249,900. In Orleans, the average price increased 1% to $277,860 and the median price increased 14% to $273,000. In the Washington suburb of Boonsboro, the average price increased 10% to $321,480 and the median price increased 26% to $315,000, while in the suburb of Hagerstown the average price declined 24% to $169,959 and the median price declined 12% to $167,495
• Prices are significantly higher and the market much stronger in Toronto than in Chicago. In Toronto, the average price declined 4% to $394,099 and the median price dipped 2% to $325,000. In Chicago, the average price fell 34% to $249,901 and the median price dropped 39% to $180,000. It took an average of 37 days to sell a house in Toronto, compared to 168 days in Chicago.
• In the suburbs, Toronto suburbs performed similarly to Toronto, while Chicago suburbs were much stronger than Chicago itself
Vancouver vs Seattle March 2009 (vs 2008)
• Prices are significantly higher in Vancouver than Seattle. The average price was $636,785 in Vancouver compared with $426,825 in Seattle. The median price was $482,228 in Vancouver, compared with $367,000 in Seattle. However, Vancouver and Seattle had similar declines in average prices (-15% and -12% respectively) and median prices (-12% and -11%).
• All Vancouver and Seattle suburbs surveyed had declining prices, but price levels varied significantly. The Fraser Valley city of Langley, 30 minutes from Vancouver, had the strongest market with an average price decline of 14% to $383,631 and a median price decline of 13% to $338,500. Weakest of the four suburb markets surveyed was Tacoma, where the average price dropped 24% to $206,681 and median price declined 19% to $183,500.
You are a little under-estimate the purchasing power in Capital region.
I never lived in Vancouver, but I was living in TO, MO and OT each for a few years. A few co-workers in TO was driving fancy cars and I don't believe they got much higher salary than myself. I found one of reason that you do not see fancy cars often is because of large base of government employee who are more conservative instead of show-off. It is related to tax money psychology.
Have you seen the communities in Mooney's Bay/Hog's back. The average price is around 68k. Actually the phase II started a while ago and the price was well above 70K then and well received by buyers. Phase I was developped by Richcraft and only two lots left. Another example is Westboro, new single homes on former Church site costs about 800K and sold out in a short time.
True, OT population is much smaller than those cities. With negative picture of long winter season and limited employment opportunities for immigrants, the demand is not high compared to cities like Vancouver, but I still feel you are under-estimating the purchasing power in Capital Region.
I never lived in Vancouver, but I was living in TO, MO and OT each for a few years. A few co-workers in TO was driving fancy cars and I don't believe they got much higher salary than myself. I found one of reason that you do not see fancy cars often is because of large base of government employee who are more conservative instead of show-off. It is related to tax money psychology.
Have you seen the communities in Mooney's Bay/Hog's back. The average price is around 68k. Actually the phase II started a while ago and the price was well above 70K then and well received by buyers. Phase I was developped by Richcraft and only two lots left. Another example is Westboro, new single homes on former Church site costs about 800K and sold out in a short time.
True, OT population is much smaller than those cities. With negative picture of long winter season and limited employment opportunities for immigrants, the demand is not high compared to cities like Vancouver, but I still feel you are under-estimating the purchasing power in Capital Region.
FromVancouver
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Everywhere there are rich people, You gave me some individul examples in Ottawa, sure, I believe, but look at data provided by the friend Xiaomin (he gave a nice paper with strong argument, not just feeling), average price was $636,785 in Vancouver compared that 302,231 in Ottawa.
I just do my best guess, concluding that Price in Ottawa will increase because there is still a room, but not that high because this is only a local reasonable marketing. Average family income in Ottawa <80,000, what the house price can be afforded with high property tax and high utility fee/month? Sure there are some rich families but very small population (just 10% of total family income was over 140,000 in 2006 cross Canada, incluing Haber), they are mostly local rich man, not internationa rich. How many investment immigrants in canada/year? most are staying in Van, the price in Van is not support by Canadian dollars, it is supported by International money.
Price under 200,000 is very easy lifted to 400,000, then, there is a celling there, for most working class family, 500,000 is a big celling (except people who already bough cheaper house before 2004). The house price in westboro is increased this year (still cheaper comparing house in Downtown), it has big lot,but will touch the celling soon. next area will be carlinwood area, still cheap now.
regarding car, some people does show off, but people over 35 years age want safe, reliable, easy drive, also fancy if possible, and... If I have enough money, I will buy BMW, but I only have two car (one is Civic, one is Honda CRV (my wife is working in Gov too and want buy BMW X3), because Japan. car are cheaper, way more cheaper maintain fee, gas than BMW.
My several Chinese colleagues (all working in Fed gov, me too)like BMW, benz but.... I can afford a BMW, but I have to give up vacation trip...... so that is about money, after tax net money, not just show off.
I have some white friends (colleagues) in my Dept, seems most of them like BMW than Toyot, but they are even more "poor" than me.
Just discuss with you, it is only my personal opinion , I wish the price up, so I can sell my house in Vancouver, by the way, House in Ottawa town is not cheap as u think because of too old.
The price in Toronto is high, I guess because of huge immigrants come into this city.
I do know the reason for price up in Victoria (second or third high in Canada): lots of retired US seniors came to buy the house there. I had a white colleague working in Victoria as senior IT guy (BC gov) only bought a townhouse there, and run a very old second hand BMW 3xx (he is a car fan).
FromVancouver
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Thanks, a good paper. US has a big problem since last year, so, seems not make sense to compare with them, (price is droped more than 15%, because it was increased too fast before last year).
small population, stable gov working employees, but high income tax, property tax, utility fee, cold weather, less immigrants, going down IT, high tech industry, make Ottawa housing marking a local marketing, and price stable. First buyers usually feel not happy to buy a house over 400,000, confortable price is between 200,000 (single working man)-350,000 (family). That is why I guess the house price in Ott will not increase a lot (only follow the inflation rate) after touch the celling.
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good insight.
I agree with you that Ottawa house market is sort of local market and Van is kind of international market. Once the high tech is booming, more money and poeple will flow into ottawa, then the price will jump dramatically.
