精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

ＧＮＷ

这是今年的一块心病，我是赚了几分跑了几元呀。有了ＢＡＣ后，觉得Ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌｓ就缺ｉｎｓｕｒａｎｃｅ了，比来比去选了它，还真涨了点，卖了；又买又涨了点又卖了。算是顺利吧？Ｓｈｉｔ，赚了几分跑了几元呢！

本来我是做过拉倒，不会再去想了。但ＧＮＷ是个例外，也是我不追涨的经典败笔，可ＢＣＲＸ和ＮＶＡＸ又是很少追涨的两次违反自己做法的败笔。咳，想也想不透，说也说不清的。

狂涨但我没有的股票今年见了多了，一点也没动过心。但ＧＮＷ却令我到今天不能释怀，因为自己在中途改变原定的做法致使仓中的一条猛牛溜了。又是一大学费！

 

[加京游子]

今年到此要记录的就以上这些了

Ｔｈｅ　２ＱＥＲ　ｓｅａｓｏｎ　ｉｓ　ａｒｏｕｎｄ　ｔｈｅ　ｃｏｒｎｅｒ．Ｉ　ｈａｖｅ　ｇｏｏｄ　ｆｅｅｌｉｎｇｓ　ｆｏｒ　ｔｈｅ　ｂａｎｋｉｎｇ　ｓｅｃｔｏｒ　（ｉ．ｅ．，ｍｙ　ＢＡＣ）．Ｇｉｖｅｎ　ｔｈｅ　ｓｔｏｃｋ　ｍａｒｋｅｔ＇ｓ　ｂｉｇ　ｒｕｎｕｐ，　Ｍｅｒｒｉｌｌ＇ｓ　ｃｏｍｐｏｎｅｎｔ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｈａｖｅ　ｄｏｎｅ　ｗｅｌｌ；　ｍｏｒｔｇａｇｅ　ｒａｔｅｓ　ｗｅｒｅ　ｌｏｗ　ｉｎ　Ａｐｒｉｌ　ａｎｄ　Ｍａｙ　ａｎｄ　ｒｅ－ｆｉｎａｎｃｉｎｇ　ａｃｔｉｖｅ，　Ｃｏｕｎｔｒｙｗｉｄｅ＇ｓ　ｐｏｒｔｉｏｎ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｈａｖｅ　ｄｏｎｅ　ｗｅｌｌ；Ｂｌａｃｋｒｏｃｋ　ａｎｄ　ＣＣＢ　ｄｉｄ　ｗｅｌｌ　ｔｏｏ．Ｔｈｅ　ｏｒｉｇｉｎａｌ　ＢＡＣ　ｃｏｍｐｏｎｅｎｔ　ｗｉｌｌ　ｄｅｆｉｎｉｔｅｌｙ　ｓｕｆｆｅｒ　ｃｒｅｄｉｔ－ｃａｒｄ　ｌｏｓｓｅｓ　ａｎｄ　ｌｏａｎ　ｌｏｓｓｅｓ．Ｉｆ　ｃｒｅｄｉｔ－ｃａｒｄ　ａｎｄ　ｌｏａｎ　ｌｏｓｓ　ｐｒｏｖｉｓｉｏｎｓ　ａｒｅ　ｎｏｔ　ｇｏｉｎｇ　ｔｏ　ｂｅ　ａｓ　ｂａｄ　ａｓ　ｄｏｏｍ－ａｎｄ－ｇｌｏｏｍｅｒｓ　ｈａｖｅ　ｔｏｕｔｅｄ，Ｉ　ｅｘｐｅｃｔ　ＢＡＣ　ｔｏ　ｒｅｐｏｒｔ　ａ　ｇｏｏｄ　ｑｕａｒｔｅｒ．

Ｉ　ａｍ　ｌｏｏｋｉｎｇ　ｆｏｒｗａｒｄ　ｔｏ　ｔｈｅ　ｎｅｘｔ　２－３　ｗｅｅｋｓ．

Ｂｅｓｔ　ｏｆ　ｌｕｃｋ　ｔｏ　ａｌｌ！　　　

 

[timmy]

be careful.

眼下入股BAC都要小心的话，我认为市场上已很难找到无风险的股票了。另外，非常感谢大侠游子的评论！

 

[colonel]

Ｔｈａｎｋ　ｙｏｕ，　ｔｈａｎｋ　ｙｏｕ　ｖｅｒｙ　ｍｕｃｈ，ｆｏｒ　ｙｏｕｒ　ｇｏｏｄｗｉｌｌ　ａｎｄ　ｇｏｏｄ　ａｄｖｉｃｅ！

no problem. BAC is on the way back to $5 imo.

 

[加京游子]

no problem. BAC is on the way back to $5 imo.

If I were you, I would short as much as I can then --- after all, a man moves in what he believes, right? Why stop at 5? Why not 4, 3, 2, 1 and bang, 0, huh?

Well, dude (dudette): I don't know on what your opinion is based and I can't care less. I know on what my decision of owning "a truckload" of commons, August calls and LEAP calls is based and that is good enough for me. In fact, I may even add some August calls to my already over-sized collection for a 2QER play.

BAC will see 50 before 5, jmho!

Good luck!

 

[加京游子]

Putting my money where my mouth is

It was a bad bad day for me in the market. My holdings took a huge haircut today. As a result, some of my positions are deeply under water now. But I am mostly not a day or short-term trader and I do not live or die around every ticker moment at every nano second.

As planned, I bought a little BAC August calls at the 13 strike this afternoon. By definition, this addition is for a 2QER play.

 

[挺傻]

BAC的ER是哪天？

 

[ccc]

善于总结是做好股票的好习惯之一。这是楼主的优势。祝你好财运！

 

[加京游子]

BAC的ER是哪天？

July 17，I just got the confirmation from IR today. It happens to be also OE. Not knowing the exact ER date back in early June, I bought my $15 calls for August (already traded one hand for some handsome profits). After today's confirmation, I bought some $13 August calls rather than adding to my $15 position. BAC has treated me well. I have traded short-term calls for the "M2M" accounting rule change hearing, "Uptick" short-sale rule hearing, 1QER, and the "stress test results". The 1QER was stellar (beating street estimates by a wide margin) yet the market reacted very badly. It took quite a few days after the ER to recover. As such, short-term calls are for the strong stomaches only. Don't attempt them if you are not prepared to lose all. I am fully prepared for my August calls to expire worthlessly because 1) 2QER may not be as good as I expect; 2) market reactions may not be good even with a good 2QER, like the case of 1QER.

On the other hand, I will unload them prior to ER should there be a forceful pre-ER run up or a good run following a pre-announcement by one of the major banks as I expect (WFC did it last time around).

AA will kick off the season Wed. after the closing bell.

 

[加京游子]

善于总结是做好股票的好习惯之一。这是楼主的优势。祝你好财运！

衷心感谢！也祝你好运！

 

[加京游子]

I am a buyer today

Swapped some BEAT and FRPT for more YDMAC Today. BEAT and FRPT were bought for a technical bounce which has not materialized yet and could be dad money for a long period. I was very much surprized that FRPT did not run yesterday with the $70M contract award. So, I lightened my load of both with a small loss.

To my amazement, I was the only buyer of YDMAC today, all 300 contracts. Geeze, I am becoming pretty lonely with YDMAC now. There have been quite a few days since I started to load YDMAC in which I was the only market of YDMAC. I do not intend to corner it. I am very confident that MGM will have a good run in the next few months. Near-term news about Genting partership or asset sales shoud send her up and up. 2QER (expected in August) may surprise upwards too.

 

[colonel]

If I were you, I would short as much as I can then --- after all, a man moves in what he believes, right? Why stop at 5? Why not 4, 3, 2, 1 and bang, 0, huh?

Well, dude (dudette): I don't know on what your opinion is based and I can't care less. I know on what my decision of owning "a truckload" of commons, August calls and LEAP calls is based and that is good enough for me. In fact, I may even add some August calls to my already over-sized collection for a 2QER play.

BAC will see 50 before 5, jmho!

Good luck!

your money, your decision.

 

[加京游子]

Closed my BEAT and FRPT positions this AM with losses

Rationale: bought for a technical rebound after a heavy decline, added the next day to average down; bailed as they both moved against my expectations and my pre-set cut loss points were both triggered.

After the closing bell, AA beats street estimates with a loss of 47 cents per share on revenues of $4.24 billion. Excluding restructuring charges, the loss would have been 26 cents per share. The street expected it to lose 38 cents per share on revenues of $3.93 billion. AA did not provide guidance. Its stock is surging in heavy AH trading.

 

[加京游子]

BAC all the way down to $11.27 today?

In meetings all afternoon and did not watch the trading. Wow, that was very violent shakings of the tree for cheap shares and accumulation, indeed. With AA beating the street, the next couple of weeks are shaping up to be exciting, to say the least, and hopefully profitable too!

 

[加京游子]

A week in review and preview

Last week was not good at all for the overall market. It was also very bad for my brokerage account. AA beat street expectations and GM exited from bankruptcy protection. But these failed to ignite a rally after the market has corrected quite significantly from the mid-June high. Dictated by the overmall market conditions and individual stock movements in my portfolio, I sold my trading positions at loss and added some BAC August calls and MGM 2010 January calls.

Going forward, the market certainly has a huge week ahead of itself: a slew of significant data to be released, from jobless claims to new housing starts; many heavy-weight ERs are also due out: GS, INTL, JNJ, GOOG, IBM, JPM, BAC, GE ... These are market-influencing top guns. Their ERs and more importantly, guidances, will undoubtedly dictate how the market will perform in the short term and the long term.

My expections for next week: GS will report a banner Q on Tuesday and thus carry the market, especially financials, upwards; BAC will report a stellar Q on Friday, beating street estimates by a wide margin. Given its recent upgrade on the economy and GS, I expect it to guide higher too. But the catch is its credit-card and loan loss provisions due to its traditional banking services (GS is an investment bank and hence doesn't have the headaches of commercial banking like JPM, WFC and BAC).

My plans for next week and the week after: unload 1/2 of BAC August calls Wed. morning should GS ER spark a forceful rally; unload the remaining BAC August calls and 1/3 BAC LEAP calls early next week following BAC ER. Should my plans carry out, proceeds will be deployed to load DNDN and its LEAP calls. If my expectations are wrong and my plans fail to materialze, I will hold BAC August calls to maturity, expiring worthless or not. Come hell or high water.

Disclaimer: I have been deadly wrong many times before and I am sure I will be wrong time and again. I make my moves according to how I feel.