精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
Day's recap
I opened the ELNHH (ELN's August 8 calls) pit today at the 0.3 ask. By the time I managed to sell some DVAX, the ask shot up to 0.4 and the bid at 0.3. I went in in between and it took 3 hours to get filled, tripping my initial acquisition. This is an impulse short-term play, aiming for a 5-10 bagger in a month (reminisenses of the 1700% shotup one day in BAC May calls upon the street test results --- 0.03 to .51, and it doubled again the next day, I got in at 0.05 and got out at .99 for 500 contracts, the best ever! I will take some BAC to my grave or leave that with my surviving wife(?)/kids!) and here is why: BIIB reported Tysabri (Did I mention that Tysabri is a 50-50 franchise between ELN and BIIB before?) 2Q sales of $254M, amounting to over 25% growth from 2Q last year for $200M, which is on track to regain the once street-touted blockbuster status this year after the PML scare. The just concluded AGM went well, all resolutions were passed, and the mood was rather upbeat. CEO stated that ELN is no longer trying to sell its nano drug delivery technology franchise, a money making machine for the company. ELN will report 2Q results next Tuesday. I am expecting a double-digit PPS within the next month. Over the longer term, BAP (AAB-001) final results are expected to be available 2H2010, maybe at the next ICAD in Haiwaii. Should AAB-001 meet end points, it will be an instant blockbuster and I won't be surprised that ELN PPS returns to last year's high of mid-30s and even moves higher from there (25% rather than 50% of BAP now, JNJ took the other 25%) --- keep ELN 2011 15 calls --- what if ELND005 moves to Phase III (50-50 with TTH.TO)!
Disclaimer: short-term options are gambling bets. They can make or break, be prepared to lose all.
Now turn to today's ERs and economic data. JPM beat before the opening bell; IBM beat both earnings and revenues estimates and guided higher; GOOG beat but provided no guidance as usual.
Jobless claims dipped bigger than expected; the most famed bear, “Dr. Doom", Nouriel Roubini, economics professor of New York University, went to CNBC and declared that the recession will be over by year's end, which sparked a late-session rally.
Personal judgment: whether the recession is over by 3Q or year's end, yours truly strongly believe the March low is the absolute bottom of this cycle given my conviction that stock indexes lead the real economy by 6-9 months.
How about BAC's trading today? I am speechless! If you observe WS long enough, there is nothing else to say but to sigh that what a textbook manipulation for OE/ER positioning on low volume, aided by Paulson's testimony on the BAC-ML merger and media bad-mouthing (they always do that after missing a good run). What do I expect from BAC ER tomorrow? Expect the unexpectable --- let the market take its course one way or another! In my mind, there are 3 unexpectables: 1) The amount of credit-card and loan loss provisions; 2) If BAC is to guide; and 3) If BAC is to announce the timing of TARP repayment. I shall know by market opening.
A note to people who trade options: option pricing is usually dictated by the underlying stock but there may be a delay of a day or two. Watch BAC and options for this week, you will probably know exactly what I mean; MGM has moved up over 1 buck from the low of 5.5s yet MGMAC (2010 Jan. 15 calls. This is the new ticker, which was changed last Tuesday) saw no trade at all, still at .20. Today's ELN LEAP experienced the same fate. The reason is very simple: the bid-ask spread is so large that sellers are not willing to sell at the bid and buyers at the ask. Exercise your patience if you choose this style or you will be extremely frustrated.
Best of luck!
I opened the ELNHH (ELN's August 8 calls) pit today at the 0.3 ask. By the time I managed to sell some DVAX, the ask shot up to 0.4 and the bid at 0.3. I went in in between and it took 3 hours to get filled, tripping my initial acquisition. This is an impulse short-term play, aiming for a 5-10 bagger in a month (reminisenses of the 1700% shotup one day in BAC May calls upon the street test results --- 0.03 to .51, and it doubled again the next day, I got in at 0.05 and got out at .99 for 500 contracts, the best ever! I will take some BAC to my grave or leave that with my surviving wife(?)/kids!) and here is why: BIIB reported Tysabri (Did I mention that Tysabri is a 50-50 franchise between ELN and BIIB before?) 2Q sales of $254M, amounting to over 25% growth from 2Q last year for $200M, which is on track to regain the once street-touted blockbuster status this year after the PML scare. The just concluded AGM went well, all resolutions were passed, and the mood was rather upbeat. CEO stated that ELN is no longer trying to sell its nano drug delivery technology franchise, a money making machine for the company. ELN will report 2Q results next Tuesday. I am expecting a double-digit PPS within the next month. Over the longer term, BAP (AAB-001) final results are expected to be available 2H2010, maybe at the next ICAD in Haiwaii. Should AAB-001 meet end points, it will be an instant blockbuster and I won't be surprised that ELN PPS returns to last year's high of mid-30s and even moves higher from there (25% rather than 50% of BAP now, JNJ took the other 25%) --- keep ELN 2011 15 calls --- what if ELND005 moves to Phase III (50-50 with TTH.TO)!
Disclaimer: short-term options are gambling bets. They can make or break, be prepared to lose all.
Now turn to today's ERs and economic data. JPM beat before the opening bell; IBM beat both earnings and revenues estimates and guided higher; GOOG beat but provided no guidance as usual.
Jobless claims dipped bigger than expected; the most famed bear, “Dr. Doom", Nouriel Roubini, economics professor of New York University, went to CNBC and declared that the recession will be over by year's end, which sparked a late-session rally.
Personal judgment: whether the recession is over by 3Q or year's end, yours truly strongly believe the March low is the absolute bottom of this cycle given my conviction that stock indexes lead the real economy by 6-9 months.
How about BAC's trading today? I am speechless! If you observe WS long enough, there is nothing else to say but to sigh that what a textbook manipulation for OE/ER positioning on low volume, aided by Paulson's testimony on the BAC-ML merger and media bad-mouthing (they always do that after missing a good run). What do I expect from BAC ER tomorrow? Expect the unexpectable --- let the market take its course one way or another! In my mind, there are 3 unexpectables: 1) The amount of credit-card and loan loss provisions; 2) If BAC is to guide; and 3) If BAC is to announce the timing of TARP repayment. I shall know by market opening.
A note to people who trade options: option pricing is usually dictated by the underlying stock but there may be a delay of a day or two. Watch BAC and options for this week, you will probably know exactly what I mean; MGM has moved up over 1 buck from the low of 5.5s yet MGMAC (2010 Jan. 15 calls. This is the new ticker, which was changed last Tuesday) saw no trade at all, still at .20. Today's ELN LEAP experienced the same fate. The reason is very simple: the bid-ask spread is so large that sellers are not willing to sell at the bid and buyers at the ask. Exercise your patience if you choose this style or you will be extremely frustrated.
Best of luck!
I am very glad to meet a fellow BAC holder here! Apart from heart-feelingly congradulating you for getting into the absolute bottom of BAC and C last March (being good or lucky? I feel both myself), I don't offer any counsel one way or another. Trading/investing is, after all, the most personal matter on earth (next to sex, I suppose, haha). I am in BAC for a very long time (very deep in the LEAP calls and intend to exercise 1/10th on maturity of my Jan. 2011 30 LEAP for rich dividend re-instatement). Regarding C, I traded 3 times, won twice and lost one. I have wiped it out from my watch list.
Best of lucks!
Best of lucks!
thanks. indeed I bought both at the bottom. reason? Personally I like both of them very much and when i saw the price at that time I can't help myself buying them. so got 10k each , just for fun, now it turns to both of them make some good money. I should keep both that is from my guts and i should let them go , at least at this time ,that is from my mind.
What a fxxking good/lucky son of a bitch you are! If I were you, I would without any hesitation dump all C at open tomorrow and never look back. When the treasury is on your back, you simply can't get business done. US ownership is just too large for C to be run effectively as a business even in a recovery/boom. For the exact reason, I don't own AIG, FNM or FRE, with the latter two I made quite a bit changes last year in fact. I wanted to short AIG right ofter the 20-1 RS but could not get my hand to cash and missed that. I wanted to short it again at 16 after the two-day surge from the low of 8's. I am keep it on my watch list for a possible short play.
Can Mr. Lewis announce with conviction that BAC pay back the $45B TARP tomorrow, even in two tranches, with certain dates? If he does, I bet BAC flying to high 10's/low 20's instantly, and that may be enough to make me a millionaire, with a little momentum run from there. My first dream of a million started with ELN, and my message board username was ELNnaire, which went down the pipe on March 28, 2005. My second million-dollar dream rested with DNDN and my message board username was Dendreonnaire. I did realize and exceede that dream on paper just a few months into it, which was flushed down the toilet May 10, 2007, my own greed to blame --- even my then 10-year-old daughter advised me to take some off the table! Only if I had listened. Honey: just for that smart advice, Daddy will make it and then some for myslef, for you and for your big brother! Jesse Livermore made it big after 3 personal bankcruptcies; Benjamin Graham made it big after 3 personal bankcruptices. I have a secure day job, Honey, don't you ever worry! And Daddy promises: I will only fail twice!
As of now, I am dreaming about a BAC millionaire, a DNDN millionaire, an ELN millonaire, a MGM millionaire, ...... I will quit or turn professional after $20M! BAC and DNDN are sure winners now. I just started my MGM endeavour last month and restarted my ELN franchise upon the JNJ deal news. As a rule of thumb, I only keep winners in my holdings! I am currently deeply under water with MGM. DVAX is a stock with which I just can't lose money.
Best of lucks to all!
Can Mr. Lewis announce with conviction that BAC pay back the $45B TARP tomorrow, even in two tranches, with certain dates? If he does, I bet BAC flying to high 10's/low 20's instantly, and that may be enough to make me a millionaire, with a little momentum run from there. My first dream of a million started with ELN, and my message board username was ELNnaire, which went down the pipe on March 28, 2005. My second million-dollar dream rested with DNDN and my message board username was Dendreonnaire. I did realize and exceede that dream on paper just a few months into it, which was flushed down the toilet May 10, 2007, my own greed to blame --- even my then 10-year-old daughter advised me to take some off the table! Only if I had listened. Honey: just for that smart advice, Daddy will make it and then some for myslef, for you and for your big brother! Jesse Livermore made it big after 3 personal bankcruptcies; Benjamin Graham made it big after 3 personal bankcruptices. I have a secure day job, Honey, don't you ever worry! And Daddy promises: I will only fail twice!
As of now, I am dreaming about a BAC millionaire, a DNDN millionaire, an ELN millonaire, a MGM millionaire, ...... I will quit or turn professional after $20M! BAC and DNDN are sure winners now. I just started my MGM endeavour last month and restarted my ELN franchise upon the JNJ deal news. As a rule of thumb, I only keep winners in my holdings! I am currently deeply under water with MGM. DVAX is a stock with which I just can't lose money.
Best of lucks to all!
thanks. indeed I bought both at the bottom. reason? Personally I like both of them very much and when i saw the price at that time I can't help myself buying them. so got 10k each , just for fun, now it turns to both of them make some good money. I should keep both that is from my guts and i should let them go , at least at this time ,that is from my mind.
I am getting very hungry. Care to take me out for dinner with your BAC/C profits? 255-6006. Or, I can take you out for dinner and the cognac is on me too!
thanks. indeed I bought both at the bottom. reason? Personally I like both of them very much and when i saw the price at that time I can't help myself buying them. so got 10k each , just for fun, now it turns to both of them make some good money. I should keep both that is from my guts and i should let them go , at least at this time ,that is from my mind.
hey, calm down, 中国的股票哪个不是垃圾? 我4.95买了10万股,准备今天再买10-20万股,你都知道是卷商在抄,那我买的理由你也应该懂了
郑重声明
我起这帖的时候是把它当作自己副业的记录，我还指望几年后整理成书呢。我很高兴大家来这里看帖子同时也贴帖子！如果你看了帖子后得到启发，经过自己的研究而做出决定，我预祝你发财并为你感到无比的高兴！但我千万恳求你们不要在这里推荐任何股票，也不要发生任何争吵。股票买卖乃极端个人的事，我的原则是既不推荐也不评论（以前推荐过，觉得是好心，结果帮了不少人也害了不少人 --- 跟我做ELN和DNDN的人不在少数，早卖的都赚了很多但跟我坚持到底的都赔惨了）。我每做一个股票都是花心血尽我所能先做分析的。推荐股票或争吵，你们请另外开帖。谢谢！这是公开的空间，我没任何权利要求你们不发表自己的看法，但恳求你们尊重我开帖的原意，再次感谢，磕头！
我热烈欢迎大家把自己的交易情况和买卖理由也贴出来，仅是为了探讨但不推荐。我也希望得到启发，谢谢！
我起这帖的时候是把它当作自己副业的记录，我还指望几年后整理成书呢。我很高兴大家来这里看帖子同时也贴帖子！如果你看了帖子后得到启发，经过自己的研究而做出决定，我预祝你发财并为你感到无比的高兴！但我千万恳求你们不要在这里推荐任何股票，也不要发生任何争吵。股票买卖乃极端个人的事，我的原则是既不推荐也不评论（以前推荐过，觉得是好心，结果帮了不少人也害了不少人 --- 跟我做ELN和DNDN的人不在少数，早卖的都赚了很多但跟我坚持到底的都赔惨了）。我每做一个股票都是花心血尽我所能先做分析的。推荐股票或争吵，你们请另外开帖。谢谢！这是公开的空间，我没任何权利要求你们不发表自己的看法，但恳求你们尊重我开帖的原意，再次感谢，磕头！
我热烈欢迎大家把自己的交易情况和买卖理由也贴出来，仅是为了探讨但不推荐。我也希望得到启发，谢谢！
A note to my son and daughter before I call off the night
Dear son/daughter: I should have listened to you guys back in 2007. But in the market, there is no shoulda,woulda or coulda. Whatever happened has happened and has been water under the bridge for a long time now. Daddy don't need to make money in the market to survive but Daddy see himself as a piece of that material. Banjamin Graham went bankrupt three times before making it big; Jesse Livermore was broke three times before making it big. Daddy was wiped out twice before but this is what Daddy can promise: I will only fail twice!
The motivation for Daddy to do this so persistently and perseverely is first and foremost, myself --- my sense of being and my pride; however important you guys are to me, the best you guys can be comes next, the secondary. The very most you guys can hope for is a million each if I do reach my goal. The rest will be totally irrelevant to you.
Daddy are always in the state of mind being fully ready to offer help but everyone has to earn his/her own living. A good life doesn't fall from the heaven nor grow under the ground. I am very proud of both of you. Let the Lin's try our best, successfully or otherwise.
Love, Dad
Dear son/daughter: I should have listened to you guys back in 2007. But in the market, there is no shoulda,woulda or coulda. Whatever happened has happened and has been water under the bridge for a long time now. Daddy don't need to make money in the market to survive but Daddy see himself as a piece of that material. Banjamin Graham went bankrupt three times before making it big; Jesse Livermore was broke three times before making it big. Daddy was wiped out twice before but this is what Daddy can promise: I will only fail twice!
The motivation for Daddy to do this so persistently and perseverely is first and foremost, myself --- my sense of being and my pride; however important you guys are to me, the best you guys can be comes next, the secondary. The very most you guys can hope for is a million each if I do reach my goal. The rest will be totally irrelevant to you.
Daddy are always in the state of mind being fully ready to offer help but everyone has to earn his/her own living. A good life doesn't fall from the heaven nor grow under the ground. I am very proud of both of you. Let the Lin's try our best, successfully or otherwise.
Love, Dad
