精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

What happen to SIGA tomorrow ? Just a procurement announcement ?

No one really knows about FDA decision - that is the fairness. Sure,, people can manipulate etc. But they may not have true advantage.

 

[lazycatcat]

DCTH

Glad to learn you got out "whole". Today's action again proves that bio field is a good field for speculation.

March option pricing for DCTH definitely didn't count this in, although it was obvious to me (I may be fooling myself) that the pricing for volatility wasn't rational.

I don't know why those sold options allowed a hedged bets on DCTH with high probability of profit. I think bio is fertile for this type of mispricing.

Thanks again for sharing interesting bio companies. Hopefully you will find another one soon....

 

[lazycatcat]

DCTH

Sept 30, 2011 seems to be the new date now. Let's keep an eye on it.

ITMN is also on my list. If it gets rejected in Europe, ITMN will be interesting. I am not sure about DNDN since there is only hard work left to actually produce profits. Illusion is without boundary and this is how I view bio speculation. There must be illusions...

Let's find out another company with significant events. I know you are long on SIGA but let's find binary events. Win or lose, FDA decides !

I find clues in news under DCTH, ITMN etc....

By the way, volatility is returning to market now. I guess this is not too bad ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Bio Calendar

Here is the link to bio calendar in 2011:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11016605/3/biotech-calendars-2011-fda-drug-approvals.html

Any thoughts ? HGSI has a significant event on March 10th. However, there aren't any holes in option pricing.

 

[Aldan]

After reading Liar's Poker, I don't really want to read another of his books. He wasn't involved too deep in WS and wasn't objective.

There are plenty of good books about the recent crash: Paulson's book of On the Brink, House of Cards on Bears, another book on Paulson the hedge fund manager, the book on Lehman etc... Previously, the book on Enron, the book on Long Term Capital etc. Also, the book on Goldman. All these books are really nice to read.

Plus, the book of The Quants ........... It is not natural to be short on stocks. A lot of work is required to be really successful.

Jia's specialty of bio is rather interesting. I believe everyone in the game doesn't have real advantage or information over others. So, it is probably a fairest game possible on WS.

Thanks for the recommendation-you see I am new in the field.

 

[lazycatcat]

Buffett's Letter

Buffett's letter was out this morning. I have read almost all available materials on him, including letters, books, interviews etc. Even though many statements in the letters were repeated many times dating back to 1977 or earlier, they are still refreshing and inspiring.

His performance in this round of crisis is both surprising and predictable. Surprising in the outstanding performance of financial results. Predictable in the way he manages assets, prepares for unknown crisis and decisiveness in striking when opportunities come.

Also, Buffett's ideas and practices also apply to many aspects of life...

 

[newer]

Read this
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5ef1fe0901017jxh.html
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5ef1fe0901017k6d.html

He may not be the person like what you think.

Buffett's letter was out this morning. I have read almost all available materials on him, including letters, books, interviews etc. Even though many statements in the letters were repeated many times dating back to 1977 or earlier, they are still refreshing and inspiring.

His performance in this round of crisis is both surprising and predictable. Surprising in the outstanding performance of financial results. Predictable in the way he manages assets, prepares for unknown crisis and decisiveness in striking when opportunities come.

Also, Buffett's ideas and practices also apply to many aspects of life...

 

[lazycatcat]

Buffett

I think I have followed Buffett closely to have some judgment on him.

The article was too cynical and unfair in evaluating Buffett. Buffett is an investor and will take advantage of the market inside legal and ETHICAL framework. The ethical part is what differentiates Buffett from many others. I can't think of an instance where Buffett made huge profit in unethical way. This is a high standard.

As an example, if you are familiar with the book Barbarians at Gate, Buffett actually made more money than KKR in the Nabisco deal by arbitraging when the deal was announced. The events were like below:

1. Buffett understood the tobacco business of Reynolds was a good business and was undervalued. He didn't want to own the company, however, due to reputation and ethical related matters.

2. As soon as management buyout deal was announced at about $70 per share, Buffett loaded up the stocks as a type of M&A arbitrage.

3. The deal eventually went through at over $100 and Buffett made around $33 M in a short period of time.

How are you going to judge this ? Buffett is a capitalist but with high ethical standard. After all, he donated most of his fortune to a foundation.

It is childish to accuse Buffett of using insider information etc. There is simply no evidence. Also, he is not responsible for greedy people trying to ride his tails. One can hardly blame others for one's stupidity powered by one's greed, right ?

Plus, Buffett made a lot of mistakes in his career. I think if one does his hardwork of reading books etc, one shall have a better opinion....

 

[lazycatcat]

Buffett on China

I can't find a better summary of China's progress than Buffett's summary. He said to the effect that China's reform made Chinese people realize their potentials. What else can you say ?

As to his investment in China, here is a quick summary.

1. Petro China

Buffett sold his positions a few months before market capitalization of Petro China reached $1 trillion (based on my memory) and before Shanghai index reached 6,000.

There was an attack on PetroChina for China Petro (PetroChina's parent) operation in Sudan. Buffett let Berkshire shareholder vote on PetroChina holdings with his position that PetroChina did nothing wrong. The vote supported Buffett's view with a majority and thus didn't require divestiture of the position.

2. BYD

BYD was Munger's idea from Li Lu (one of 89 leader turned investor). For 10% ownership currently worth $1 B, it is hardly significant in BRKA's portfolio.

However, in this year's annual meeting, BYD electric car will be displayed along with Netjet planes and Burlington trains. Berkshire is helping BYD big time in pushing for the electric car in US market.

I don't how much more difficult BYD will be in opening up US market without such help. Just look at Korean car makers etc ...

 

[lazycatcat]

ITMN

ITMN came through today. Pity didn't make big profit from it. Its option wasn't priced rationally late last year.

I think all bio's spotted by you experienced high volatility and that was really nice.

I am sure there will be more coming ...

 

[lazycatcat]

I don't quite get it. You mean buying ITMN April $40 put today ?

I would think HGSI probably is better chance for high volatility either way ...

 

[lazycatcat]

You might be right on ITMN eventually. However, it is hard to fight against trend. There is no angle to play on ITMN I think except frontal attack, which is always risky.

CSCO is becoming more and more interesting but it is not that volatile ...

 

[lazycatcat]

SIGA

Thanks for mentioning SIGA again. Could you please share a bit information ?

1. What is special with Smallpox anti-viral ? We had this injection when were young. This should be a mature technology. Why SIGA is special ?

2. When is approximately the decision time ?

The vaccine seems to be rather expensive at $500 M for 1.7 M shots. With option of 12 M shots, the deal could be worth a few billions. The stock is selling at $750 M market cap, it seems SIGA is undervalued (on speculation basis).

 

[lazycatcat]

SIGA and PIP

Got some ideas on these two now. I guess main volatility will be in SIGA. Most likely outcome is a settlement with PIP maybe below $100 M ?

Again, I think SIGA needs to be hedged. Its $10 June put doesn't seem to be expensive. If no grant, it probably will go down to $5. If only 1.7 M shots, it will drop a bit on today's price. If all RFC, it will probably pop to over $20 for a market cap of $1.0B ........

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for being generous in recounting SIGA story. I thought it was a vaccine and thus didn't pay too much attention.

It seems SIGA June $20 call is still relatively cheap if the contract is entirely awarded to SIGA. PIP suit probably will drag on for a while ...