精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

Don't understand CCME posting. Share price is at $13. What do you mean by putting at $6.6 ?

 

[挺傻]

Don't understand CCME posting. Share price is at $13. What do you mean by putting at $6.6 ?

He sold 7.5 put at 0.9, so if the share keep on dropping, he will execute the put and purchase the share at the price of 6.6.

BTW, when you sold the put at 0.9,游子?

 

[terry890]

My brokerage account doens't cover commodity yet. I really think Ghadafi's days are numbered and so is oil's rally, back to 80-85. Anyone knows an oil EFT? Please advise, thanks in advance! I want to buy some oil EFT puts.

HOD is what you buy if you think oil is going down, and HOU is oil bull

don't hold these stock for too long, generally these are for day traders.

 

[newer]

DTO(==HOD.TO). Good luck!

Thank you very much for your generous info and advice! My cash is currently in USD and at this exchange rate, I don't want to buy Canadian dollars as I expect oil to drop and Canadian dollars to follow suit. Buying Canadian dollars to short oil may cancel each other out in the end. I am looking for American oil stocks/ETFs.

Thank you very much again and the very best of lucks to you!

 

[lazycatcat]

HGSI just got FDA approval. We will see how this translates to stock action tomorrow.

 

[lazycatcat]

I agree with you that SIGA action is not rational. This type of sell off provides betting opportunities. We will see what will happen in coming days....

 

[lazycatcat]

You are definitely courageous. For SIGA, all-in for upside is probably not too bad in terms of odds (provided all stated facts on the cure are true). Initial contract of $500 M alone probably translates to $100 M profit (pro-forma to some degree). Given SIGA's market cap of $400 M (today's close), it should have big upside if $2.5B future stream is also present.

However, with a large positional bet, I always think using 10% of funds to guard against downside makes sense too. Bio is so volatile that one can afford 10% overhead ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Sorry for the posting. Sure, l will focus on facts and refrain from any positioning discussions. I didn't mean those to be "advices" but rather strategy discussions.

Sometimes, the option pricing needs to be looked from all angles to find a perceived edge - perceived as different people have different perspectives. Anyway, let's focus on facts from now on.

I believe SIGA is a good battle field and we will see what happens ...

 

[lazycatcat]

DNDN is in spot light today.

 

[lazycatcat]

Still kicking in the market ?

 

[lazycatcat]

It is by accident that I posted the last one yesterday and just saw what DNDN was doing today. Hope everything is fine with you.

 

[lazycatcat]

It was MDVN yesterday, trial halted at the interim peek for efficacy! There was no warning of this at all. Sold today.

[media]http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MDVN&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=[/media]

CLSN jumped violently in the last 30-minute trading today with exploding volume. Is this a forewarn for news forthcoming regarding interim peek results or simply traders's speculation? Was tied up and did not manage to sell covered calls. Can HEAT also be halted for efficacy and Mr. Market make it two in as many weeks for me? That would surely be nice! waiting......

[media]http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLSN&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=[/media]

Let me WARN again: watch for what you play with. Nobody else is responsible for the financial consequences of your speculation but yourself!

Welcome back ! Best wishes to your revitalization in the stock market ! I am sure you will be successful if you could combine your passion with neapan_01's nimbleness and some caution.

Hope three of us can join one day in an elephant hunting.

 

[nepean_01]

It would be nice, Cat.

I used to play VVUS,ARNA,OREX. All were failed on FDA approval. I did quit bio-stocks after that.

:blowzy:

 

[lazycatcat]

I think the main reason for failure is unprotected directional bets. The key to bet on FDA decision is based on huge volatility on either side.

There were times when option was not priced rationally. Basically the steps I followed were as follows:

1. Look at Jia's analysis and also the news on the company.
2. Check out option pricing just after the FDA announcement.
3. The option pricing must be such that failure in selected direction can mostly be recovered in the other direction.
4. If 3 is possible, do it. Otherwise, give up.

In the case of VVUS or one of the obese drugs, it was very obvious FDA wouldn't approve the drug due to previous rejection on similar drugs. Yet the market was still betting a success.

Same opportunity existed for ITMN. I recall ARNA had about $2.5 cash per share yet its put premium at $2.5 was substantial....

Not sure what will happen to DNDN. I will take a look at its debt structure and see how it may perform.

When DNDN was at $9.00, there was a chance to bet on the positive side with downside protection at $3.00 out in 2013. Essentially, one can buy bet on its total failure at small cost and then establish a long position ....

Bio is still a fun area ... But now we have 3 x bear or bull and thus that area is also exciting ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing these two bios. For MDVN, would you like to share your insights, especially in comparison with DNDN ?

It valuation is rather modest in comparison with DNDN, which was at $5B at one point.

Does DNDN still have value in light of a string of prostate cancer drugs are going to be on line ?

As to CLSN, it seems market expectation is rather low. Is it correct to assume it may fail completely if progress result is not good ? That result is due by the end of this quarter.

If that result is good, this stock shall have support till end of 2012 for PIII results.

Is this a correct estimate of this company ?