精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

Nice to read your new postings. You definitely made it before and I am sure you will make it again.

VVUS and ARNA will be interesting next week...

The broad market is recovering and my personal view is that a more normalized market shall return in the next decade or so. For investment oriented capital, more stable companies or indexes are probably the place to go.

As you mentioned, for capitals one can afford to lose, any fields may present opportunities and no other fields are more exciting than bio.

Envy is a big enemy in investing or speculation. It is very difficult to control. I think this board is probably more suitable for sharing ideas.

As to what companies I have faith in, Berkshire is definitely the one. Good US banks like wfc and usb shall also provide decent returns. Intel is the high tech company that is probably very difficult for competitors. Fairfax Financials is also good but probably is of lower caliber than brka. Suncore is also well positioned for long-term growth if oil price is stable around $100. Broad index like spy and xic probably should be the foundation.

 

[lazycatcat]

VVUS just got strong recommendation. Next date is April 17th for final decision. ARNA and VVUS shall be very interesting in the next few months !

We will see how the hedged play work out in the next few days. The short squeeze probably will be huge.

 

[lazycatcat]

Are you following AMRN ? Its event is also in July. It seems to have good news from FDA but its shares tank... Any insights or thoughts ?

From valuation point of view, ARNA should catch up to around $500 to $600 M market cap unless the tumor issue is a big concern ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Yes and no. I was watching it running up from low 2's to close to 20 on the data release. Made nickles, dimes and quarters with it but that was quite some time ago. It is way too late to that party. Its tanking driver was patent expiration. Approval won't save that sinking ship. I deleted it from my watchlist many moons ago.

Watch CHTP's tomorrow ADCOMM --- it may provide a comeback play (I am looking at an entry a little above cash value) --- any comeback play requires extreme patience, not on a day-to-day basis.

The patent decision will be made in mid March of 2012. Do you think it will lose the patent fight ? What happens if it wins ?

 

[lazycatcat]

Back to 20 and waiting for the FDA decision. This patent fight is also a binary event. But it is very different from conventional patent infringement litigations. This fight is about extending patent expiration --- a law re-writing is required.

Do you mind sharing a bit more on the patent fight ? It was rejected last year and the upcoming one is due to appeal. The reason for reject was double patenting...

The implied volatility is low for April. It seems to be non-eventful. What will happen if patent is rejected but FDA approval is secured ? How may years of exlusivity the company has to the patent before expiration ?

Maybe I shall dig into 10K's...

 

[lazycatcat]

Sorry, I can't say anything further after stopping following it for a long time now. Besides, my plate is rather full with pressing needs to build a position in ONTY and add to AEZS.

Thanks for sharing ONTY. I was wondering if it makes sense to buy April put of VVUS tomorrow....Just a thought for tail risk events if it is cheap enough ... April 17th happens to be a few days before the 3rd Friday...

 

[lindamy]

给你们讲个笑话吧，我刚来潜水几天，没有任何知识，还不懂空 多 short pull push 这些词。看到楼主推荐VVUS，就开了一个模拟账户，共买了5个每个50股，以便比较，开了两天以后，就这个VVUS亏得最多，12买的，马上就是10，今早一开市，就跑到21了，真是好玩。我刚买了VVUS后，也不知它是个啥，想去看一下历史，结果怎么都找不到，后来才知道因为我输入的是WUS，不是VVUS。太无知了，玩模拟还不够格。

 

[lazycatcat]

The hedged play of down on VVUS and up on ARNA was wiped out today. So, it is probably a bad idea and a vertical play on VVUS is better.

The bio field may become the something like tech in 80's and 90's. Your pioneering work on this board and sharing of everything is much appreciated.

ARNA and VVUS is not done yet and there will be sequels. ONTY and AMRN are both interesting.

I will dig into AMRN 10-K's and share what I find. I am good at reading 10-K's and let me know if you have interesting findings and we can probably work together ...

Bio is a fertile field and some day there will be huge rewards ...

 

[lazycatcat]

VVUS April PDUFA decision first: in light of the 20:2 AdComm vote and discussions and comments at the AdComm, my own prediction for the April decision is a "conditional approval". VVUS won't be allowed to sell Qnexa until two conditions are met: 1) the completion of the design of VVUS's own proposed 12,000-patient post-approval CV study. I would venture that the FDA requires concrete evaluable milestones. 2) A highly restrictive REMS in place. VVUS's own earlier proposed target population exclusion of all child-bearing-age women was shot down by the FDA. Putting these two in place likely requires 6-9 months. In other words, I don't expect Qnexa to be on the market until late fall/early next year in case of an approval on April 17.

PPS prediction? No, I don't do that but expect volatility. Longs will pump; shorts and late-to-the-party comers bash. Some of the weekend talks have to be around VVUS. Large sums of money will be made/lost.

A few events need to be watched with vigour, nonetheless. 1) Possible EMA March 16 announcement. 2) FDA March 27-28 conference on obesity and CV. 3) April 17 Qnexa PDUFA date. 4) April 29 Anavafil PDUFA date. Two unexpectable considerations: capital raise/secondary offering and buyout.

The market potential is huge and the management team is top notch in marketing. Everybody is talking about breathtakiing top-dose efficacy yet when asked by the FDA, VVUS answered in its own words the recommended dosage is mid dose. What a marvellous marketing genius!

To ARNA now. The PDUFA date is June 27 with the AdComm date yet to be officially announced. FDA calendar followers have it on May 10. I built my ARNA position prior to the VVUS AdComm, expecting a sectoral effect, which only lasted in the AH/PM. I could not even participate with options. I added significantly when ARNA fell off the PM cliff at the open, only to watch it going down and down and down. What a heart breaker! It is still early and I am confident that new developments will emerge. I expect ARNA's MC to be around 750M heading into the AdComm. Adam Feustein and Matt Herper can bash ARNA as much as they want with their evil-minded tactics and they do indeed have followers. It is Wall Street, after all.

In my mind, the following events to be watched: March 2 --- EMA filing, may not have much impact; March 27-28 --- FDA conference; May 10 --- the AdComm; May 7/8 --- the BD's release; June 27 --- Lorcaserin's PDUFA date.

Suppose Lorcaserin also wins approval, it can still be the first to market, long before Qnexa. The target polulation can also be much bigger. Efficacy seems to be the centre of interest, but Lorcaserin is comparable to Qnexa efficacy at the mid dose, plus a long list of benefits for comorbidities. When can the media and WS wake up?

I operate following my own feelings. Do your own DD's if you have a hand/interest in these.

Thanks for sharing these thoughts, which are very insightful.

Any comments on the tumor/cancer related issues on ARNA ?

For AMRN, I have done two 10Q's and no interesting information there. Started 10K and will share once done - key focus is on the patent.

Based on what I have read so far, the core ingredient is EPA, which a highly pure fish oil. The GLX drug is EPA plus HDA. AMRN has little HDA in it.

So, neither Glaxo nor AMRN has new molecules in the drug yet Glaxo xan claim exlusivity. Same for VVUS, the two molecules are not new yet they also have exclusivity. Any thoughts on that ?

 

[lazycatcat]

Last VVUS stock offering is around Aug. 24th, 2011. The offering price is $6.65 per share with total of $45.8 M raised.

For AMRN, an interesting question is what will happen if the patent application is rejected. It seems it can still have 5 to 8 years exclusivity. Given the $1 B sale volume, it can afford to pay royalty and still make a profit.

What do you think ? Based on option pricing, market doesn't take patent rejection as significant (based on March and April option prices). It seems the next event is really the FDA decision.

I read the ARNA article from SA before VVUS decision. I personally feel it is biased. Any hint of breast cancer is significant, regardless of safety margin. Do you know if there are any conclusions in this regard, in terms of trial result etc ?

 

[lazycatcat]

I held a small amount of ARNA March calls. Will wait till expiration to see what to do....

 

[lazycatcat]

So, we are co-owners in ARNA now. In my mind, people without chips on the table just offer lip service and I don't enjoy conversing with those who don't have skin in the game, regardless of which side of the trade. I actually like to listen to arguments from both sides just in case I leave stones untouched.

Good luck to us in this venture!

A tiny one in onty too...

AMRN is probably interesting as well...if valuation is a bit lower...

 

[lazycatcat]

My patience ran out today. Pulled the trigge. We are now also co-owners of ONTY. Hoping to wake up one of these mornings in the near future to the headline "Stimuvax Phase III Pivotal Clinical Trial Is Halted for Efficacy"!

One old stock I was wondering if you are still following. BAC.

BAC's tangible book value is around $12. If it can make even for the next few quarters, it probably will command some premium over its tangible book.

I don't have BAC stocks but long-term calls at $10 seems to be under priced for a full recovery this year ...

 

[lazycatcat]

My patience ran out today. Pulled the trigge. We are now also co-owners of ONTY. Hoping to wake up one of these mornings in the near future to the headline "Stimuvax Phase III Pivotal Clinical Trial Is Halted for Efficacy"!

Let's see what will happen. I guess this could be $50 stock if it hits ?

 

[lazycatcat]

I hope you haven't given up on DNDN, since you followed it for so long.

DNDN's debt is convertible at $50 common and DNDN has the option to pay in commons or cash. Total debt is around $550. Therefore, DNDN's current valuation is really $500.

What is your view on valuation of DNDN ? Long-term value at $500 M ?