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精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
加京游子,
Please don't bet big on it. With the VVUS approved, ARNA has very limited upside. But I could be wrong. Please reduce your position or buy some put to protect your position. I just worry about your size! It will be okay if your position size is small.
Nepean_01
This is a good idea but may be difficult to carry out. May $2.5 put is for $0.90 and the share price is probably $0.50 to $1.00 on rejection ... So ...
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
Bio is an all or nothing game. It is probably better to bet on a direction or no bet at all ...
This is a good idea but may be difficult to carry out. May $2.5 put is for $0.90 and the share price is probably $0.50 to $1.00 on rejection ... So ...
两年后我还是不明白减肥药怎么会吃出癌来。真是千古奇冤!
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
两年后我还是不明白减肥药怎么会吃出癌来。真是千古奇冤!
Some people said it was fabricated... I was also confused by conflict posting... I think the drug is off if there is remote possibility of causing tumor...
What are you doing lately ? Still shorting ? Summer is always down time, most of the time ...
加京游子,
Please don't bet big on it. With the VVUS approved, ARNA has very limited upside. But I could be wrong. Please reduce your position or buy some put to protect your position. I just worry about your size! It will be okay if your position size is small.
Nepean_01
nepean_01:
Thank you so very much for your goodwill and advice! I think I have done all the work I can do and known all the arguments brought forward by ARNA's enemies since 2010. The rest is up to the FDA. On ARNA and VVUS, I disagree with a lot of people. For me, the risk/reward is simply too compelling to pass on. AH May 10 or PM May 11 will tell all, only a few days away. One side will be proven very wrong! At this price and the premium, it is not worth of buying puts (40% insurance is simply too high) and I really don't want to increase my cost basis. My bet is already wagered and there is no looking back!
The issue is the AdComm outcome. I see a tripple upon an overwhelmingly positive AdComm and that is what I bet on. The ultimate judgement is just a week away.
Thank you very much again!
三分侠气 + 一点素心 = Jia...
三分侠气 + 一点素心 = 我那朋友...
此人(可惜身在米国) 技术分析一流，但奇怪的是跟您持一样的观点，我昨天把你对FA/TA的观点告诉我朋友，我朋友大笑不已，表示完全赞同。我朋友跟您一样从不拘泥于图，我较古板。呵呵。
三分侠气 + 一点素心 = 我那朋友...
此人(可惜身在米国) 技术分析一流，但奇怪的是跟您持一样的观点，我昨天把你对FA/TA的观点告诉我朋友，我朋友大笑不已，表示完全赞同。我朋友跟您一样从不拘泥于图，我较古板。呵呵。
哥们：衷心感谢你的祝福！ 大事件面前，TA是那样的苍白无力！前不久的HGSI，THLD，ECYT，昨天的GMCR，今天的大市都是明证！图形能告诉你以前发生了什么，却没法预测将要发生什么！
nepean_01
既然我们同做DANG，讨论讨论吧。
除了图形外，你对DANG的短期、中期、长期前景怎么看？跟国内几个朋友聊了聊，据说现在网购很火爆。
我个人认为，影响DANG近期走势的因素除了大市外主要是季报和新的CFO什么时候上班。我现在手上有点股票，还卖了点5月$7定价的puts.
我打算近日内加仓，卖9月$8定价的puts，所得合同费用于买同月同价的calls. 如果跌的话，这个策略相当于9月$6左右买DANG；如果涨，收益不封顶。手上的一点股票用于做短期新闻波动。你觉得怎么样？
另外，你没有提及RENN. 我有RENN（股票和卖出的5月$6定价的puts），其近期走势除受大市影响外主要是14日的季报和18日的FB IPO. 我手上的仓位已经相当重，不然我会卖7月$7的puts，同时买等价的calls. 我也可能卖掉部分股票，同时卖5月7P和买9月7/8/9C， 如果这样做，我就可以卖6、7、8、9的covered calls了 --- calendar bull spreads.
意在跟你讨论，你怎么做千万别受我影响。我不推荐股票，更不推荐具体做法！
也欢迎大家讨论！
既然我们同做DANG，讨论讨论吧。
除了图形外，你对DANG的短期、中期、长期前景怎么看？跟国内几个朋友聊了聊，据说现在网购很火爆。
我个人认为，影响DANG近期走势的因素除了大市外主要是季报和新的CFO什么时候上班。我现在手上有点股票，还卖了点5月$7定价的puts.
我打算近日内加仓，卖9月$8定价的puts，所得合同费用于买同月同价的calls. 如果跌的话，这个策略相当于9月$6左右买DANG；如果涨，收益不封顶。手上的一点股票用于做短期新闻波动。你觉得怎么样？
另外，你没有提及RENN. 我有RENN（股票和卖出的5月$6定价的puts），其近期走势除受大市影响外主要是14日的季报和18日的FB IPO. 我手上的仓位已经相当重，不然我会卖7月$7的puts，同时买等价的calls. 我也可能卖掉部分股票，同时卖5月7P和买9月7/8/9C， 如果这样做，我就可以卖6、7、8、9的covered calls了 --- calendar bull spreads.
意在跟你讨论，你怎么做千万别受我影响。我不推荐股票，更不推荐具体做法！
也欢迎大家讨论！
两年后我还是不明白减肥药怎么会吃出癌来。真是千古奇冤!
I strongly believe the FDA will right the wrong it committed to the co and shareholders back in 2010. I will hold my current position into the AdComm and will significantly add if a bear raid materializes upon the public release of the BD Tuesday morning. Big money is made or lost during moments like this. Rewards are always tied to risks!
RENN vs ZNGA for a FB IPO play
nepean_01:
There are many FA reasons why I would choose RENN over ZNGA for a FB IPO trade (one can always own both, I suppose, if one believes both are going to run up) but I won't get into the details. And my RENN ownership will go way beyond the FB IPO. Briefly, if everyone says ZNGA should run to 20, then chances are it won't. RENN had a great day last Friday, it went up nicely in a very bad market. Now, the YMB posters (mostly kids, probably) are going crazy, spewing numbers out like 12, 14, 20 ...... by Monday, Tuesday ...... I wish I could have some of what they are smoking! This gets me concerned.
Like ZNGA, everybody thought it would be $20 before FB IPO, but it was down to $8-9...:blowzy:
nepean_01:
There are many FA reasons why I would choose RENN over ZNGA for a FB IPO trade (one can always own both, I suppose, if one believes both are going to run up) but I won't get into the details. And my RENN ownership will go way beyond the FB IPO. Briefly, if everyone says ZNGA should run to 20, then chances are it won't. RENN had a great day last Friday, it went up nicely in a very bad market. Now, the YMB posters (mostly kids, probably) are going crazy, spewing numbers out like 12, 14, 20 ...... by Monday, Tuesday ...... I wish I could have some of what they are smoking! This gets me concerned.
