精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

By the way, coffee business is a bit interesting. The only way to make a company successful seems to be retailing, Starbucks, Tim Horton and Doughnut.

GMCR is the only one that seems to be able to make a coffee business from selling premium-branded coffee. The aid is Keurig. GMCR without Keurig is still a commodity business and now this try seems to be tanking.

Coffee as brand is very different from Monster as brand for HANS or UUG for DECK. Brand recognition in coffee business seems to be very hard to establish...

 

[加京游子]

By the way, coffee business is a bit interesting. The only way to make a company successful seems to be retailing, Starbucks, Tim Horton and Doughnut.

GMCR is the only one that seems to be able to make a coffee business from selling premium-branded coffee. The aid is Keurig. GMCR without Keurig is still a commodity business and now this try seems to be tanking.

Coffee as brand is very different from Monster as brand for HANS or UUG for DECK. Brand recognition in coffee business seems to be very hard to establish...

This is brand new for me. I only know Tim and Starbucks doing well. I am still listening to the CC. All numbers are not that bad to my eyes and ears but the stock losing 50% AH --- seems way overdone but that is WS. I still remember buying LVS at 1.4 and BAC at 2.9 back in March 2009! Unfortunately, I did not time the good exit points. The only great exit I made was DNDN at 55 (from 2.8) but my re-entry into the LEAPS burnt all the profits. Being a humble student of Mr. Market, there is new things to learn everyday!

 

[lazycatcat]

Just did some digging around on GMCR. This is probably a company that will have a lot of trouble down the road. It may become a scandal ...

1. GMCR was predicting 40% earning/revenue increase. This is insane given upcoming patent expiry of Keurig.

2. Tilson, a long-term Berkshire investor, has been shorting the stock for two years. This guy has some creditability and suspects GMCR has also accounting problems.

3. GMCR's fundamental business model is selling commodity as a commodity. Once the shrine of Keurig is gone, it is an ugly commodity business like JVA. If this turns out to be right, the justifiable P/E is probably 10 and its true earning power won't be revealed till accounting dust settles down.

Remember Krispy Kreme story (KKD) ? GMCR is still worth some premiums but its way down is probably not finishing soon. Maybe the founder will take over someday ...

 

[加京游子]

Just did some digging around on GMCR. This is probably a company that will have a lot of trouble down the road. It may become a scandal ...

1. GMCR was predicting 40% earning/revenue increase. This is insane given upcoming patent expiry of Keurig.

2. Tilson, a long-term Berkshire investor, has been shorting the stock for two years. This guy has some creditability and suspects GMCR has also accounting problems.

3. GMCR's fundamental business model is selling commodity as a commodity. Once the shrine of Keurig is gone, it is an ugly commodity business like JVA. If this turns out to be right, the justifiable P/E is probably 10 and its true earning power won't be revealed till accounting dust settles down.

Remember Krispy Kreme story (KKD) ? GMCR is still worth some premiums but its way down is probably not finishing soon. Maybe the founder will take over someday ...

This is brand new to me. I am still listening to the CC. I won't pull my trigger without watching. Can you dig into PWRD? This is truly a gross undervalued to me outside biotech if there is no book cooking but that is what I am very fearful. I dared to pull the trigger at 6.5 for DNDN when I sensed the margin-forced sale was about done.

 

[加京游子]

Got into CLDX today!

Don't ask me why --- the data won't change whether it is presented at ASCO or co's webcast conference call. WS can behave really in unbelievable ways! The disadvantage by this administrative/technical error is that the news will miss the industry's premier event of the year (mecca of oncology as someone once labelled it) but the advantage is the co can present it in details and answer questions rather than being sandwiched by many presentations in the same session, and more importantly, investors get to hear it a full week ahead than otherwise.

I have no idea what technical error was committed that caused this being rejected for a poster presentation by the ASCO and I don't usually give credence to YMB posters but the following sounds reasonable.

Submission category revisited

3-May-12 01:47 am

Heard from 2 different sources that CLDX tried for late-breaking abstract, but the Program Committee was inflexible and would not make exception to policy of PIII's only. So I take back my "belle of the party" post and actually give credit to CLDX for being aggressive and trying to arrange the best opportunity for the presentation of 011 results.

Plan B of having a webcast featuring the lead investigator for the PIIb may provide a better forum to discuss 011 results and implications, than being sandwiched between a dozen other PII presentations in the Breast cancer session as per standard ASCO assignment. Like I said the other day, this is going to be interesting...

 

[加京游子]

Pick and bet on ASCO 2012 winner(s), I have done mine

[media]http://www.asco.org/ASCOv2/Department%20Content/IMedia/OPP/2012%20Express%20Prints/By%20Track/CentralNervousSystemTumors_ASCO_ExpressPrint12.pdf[/media]

 

[nepean_01]

游子，

最主要是您前一段都不怎么贴，我就没怎么上来了。真心谢谢您的帖子。我们经历有点相似。我深深理解您的痛苦。我现在操作都比较小心。停损一般都设得很近。而且不再赌业绩，不赌FDA投票，等等。怎么安全怎么来。我已经很久都没做空了。呵呵。

我有时确实比较郁闷，这个论坛有的人实在让你无语，我们分享我们的想法，纯粹是互相帮助，实在出于一片好心，不知要图什么，当我看到有的帖子实在伤人，就很不愿意浪费时间贴东西了。但想想您一直坚持，真得让人感动。

我可能很快要离开小渥村了，可能会去纽约，不少美国朋友都想要我过去。
HGSI暴涨翻倍时，几个美国朋友都在一大早挂来电话道谢，那感觉比自己赚钱还快乐。呵呵。我的朋友基本都在美国。

再次谢谢。
Nepean_01

 

[nepean_01]

明天大盘的卖压会非常重。今天花街道机构疯狂卖出。不过他们也常常做反。呵呵。

我越来越觉得操作要反其道而行之才能赚钱。随大流一般都是送钱的。像ZNGA就是个经典得例子，所有人都认为它会在FB上市前狂飙到$20，它就走个大熊。呵呵。机构$12增发全部被套。:blowzy:

 

[lazycatcat]

游子，

最主要是您前一段都不怎么贴，我就没怎么上来了。真心谢谢您的帖子。我们经历有点相似。我深深理解您的痛苦。我现在操作都比较小心。停损一般都设得很近。而且不再赌业绩，不赌FDA投票，等等。怎么安全怎么来。我已经很久都没做空了。呵呵。

我有时确实比较郁闷，这个论坛有的人实在让你无语，我们分享我们的想法，纯粹是互相帮助，实在出于一片好心，不知要图什么，当我看到有的帖子实在伤人，就很不愿意浪费时间贴东西了。但想想您一直坚持，真得让人感动。

我可能很快要离开小渥村了，可能会去纽约，不少美国朋友都想要我过去。
HGSI暴涨翻倍时，几个美国朋友都在一大早挂来电话道谢，那感觉比自己赚钱还快乐。呵呵。我的朋友基本都在美国。

再次谢谢。
Nepean_01

Hope you will continue to visit this site. You are closer to Wall Street now. All the best !

 

[nepean_01]

All the best to you.

 

[加京游子]

All the best wishes --- nepean_01!

Apart from wishing you all the very best, I can have no advice for you whatsoever! Being contrarian isn't a bad idea albeit being difficult. Whenever I chase a stock up, I am either trapped or sell for loss. I only make money when I buy dropping stocks.

Thanks for your heads up on ZNGA, I had the patience to wait for 8 and I made 10% in two days. I will stay with what I feel I do best. And that is the only advice I can give you --- stay with what you do best!

Again, all the very best wishes!

 

[lazycatcat]

This is brand new to me. I am still listening to the CC. I won't pull my trigger without watching. Can you dig into PWRD? This is truly a gross undervalued to me outside biotech if there is no book cooking but that is what I am very fearful. I dared to pull the trigger at 6.5 for DNDN when I sensed the margin-forced sale was about done.

PWRD is a Chinese company. From my experience with SPU, Sino Forest, it is impossible to rely on the financials... So I think it is better to pass...

If you have other US or CND companies outside bio, I can take a look.

I think GMCR is worth following. At certain point, this company shall be worth something...;

 

[加京游子]

PWRD is a Chinese company. From my experience with SPU, Sino Forest, it is impossible to rely on the financials... So I think it is better to pass...

If you have other US or CND companies outside bio, I can take a look.

I think GMCR is worth following. At certain point, this company shall be worth something...;

I read the ER very carefully and listened to the CC very attentively. My conclusion is that today's market reaction can only be explained in the book cooking scenario. Of course, margin-forced sale cannot be ruled out like I said in my post last night. I watched this type of falls enough time to have learnt something, hopefully.

 

[nepean_01]

I might added more HZNP soon. I had fairly small at 4.00. I expected a lot on this baby.:blowzy:

 

[加京游子]

I might added more HZNP soon. I had fairly small at 4.00. I expected a lot on this baby.:blowzy:

Best of lucks, I will add to my cldx.