精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

Sorry, I will stop here. I really want to learn some bio-info from you...:blowzy:

你想学东西？好像怎么看怎么不像呢！从你的帖子看，我怎么觉得只有跟你做才对你的路呢？

1）买卖记录和理由都明记在这里，我一个败军之将，没有任何可以让别人可学的东西！

2）你的帖子不多，但前言不对后语比闲得慌实在是有过之而无不及！CFC的人买卖几股能影响股价吗？哈哈，鄙人白天是不看帖的。

3）从你的帖子里，我不仅看不出你是要学东西的而且是要教别人做什么并且要以你认同的价位成交。不然，就是对不起你好心的分享。你一家之见，自己可以觉得准若神明，但请允许别人不这样看！毕竟，脑袋是长在别人肩膀上的嘛！更何况，交易账户也是别人的！

4）把账户关了，再也不涉足华尔街了，所有的都是你的了。否则，只是暂时存你账上而已！

 

[lazycatcat]

Let's discuss objectively...

Nepean_01, I think you are well intentioned. We can just present facts and views and then let others decide on their actions...

You have been focusing on high-quality issues before and I really hope you will spend some time/energy on that category since you have a lot of time.

In my opinion, companies in bio and speculative state are good for betting small probability events. This way, loss is limited but gains could be significant. Lacking such feature, any involvement is arguable...

 

[加京游子]

ARNA: final day of positioning for tomorrow's AdComm

Contrary to what was widely expected, the BD was rather positive (very rare) except the statistician's ultraconservative remarks.

Trading will be halted all day tomorrow. I may still have a little repositioning to do today. All that can be done is done --- data studied and re-studied, sleep lost, positioning and repositioning. After today's close, it is entirely in the hands of the AdComm members. Final judgement is less than two days away.

Best of lucks if you have chips on the table!

 

[加京游子]

Today's repositioning

1) Sold ARNA shares

2) Sold CLDX June 4P and 3P and bought 5C

3) 2X ECYT

 

[lazycatcat]

1) Sold ARNA shares

2) Sold CLDX June 4P and 3P and bought 5C

3) 2X ECYT

Interesting on your ARNA move ... It is probably a smart move ... will see tomorrow.

 

[加京游子]

Interesting on your ARNA move ... It is probably a smart move ... will see tomorrow.

There was nothing particular about my ARNA shares sale yesterday. I was simply implementing a long-conceived plan. From my 1st post onwards, I have consistently made it clear that I would actively trade prior to the AdComm and try to have my AdComm position paid for by the house. And that I won't hold shares into the AdComm to reduce my exposure.

I was fully aware that I may miss out big pushing that sale button but the FDA being the FDA, I no longer want my WS participation ability to be decided by a single binary event. After all the hard work, I want to have a hand to benefit but I don't want a stake big enough to ruin my ability to continue to participate should things turn out contrary to expectations. It is a game of probability and I truly believe the risk-reward profile is strongly in ARNA's favour. We will know by this evening. Stock price would be a lot higher after the PDUFA approval (if and when it is approved) but a lot safer to buy too, and for many, better to buy then.

I have also consitently made it clear that my commitment doesn't go beyond this AdComm. I will evaluate ARNA after this evening and then chart out a course of actions going forward.

 

[antimachine]

Recommended approval by Adcom 18-4-1 yes, no and abstention. Very happy!

 

[加京游子]

Congratulations!

Recommended approval by Adcom 18-4-1 yes, no and abstention. Very happy!

Yes, a friend who was watching the AdComm phoned me about the voting outcome. It was a hard-fought battle over the last couple of months. It is both sweet and bitter. PDUFA ruling is now in play.

It is my second AdComm win but at the last minute, I followed my long-conceived plan and sold my shares, giving up a gold mine. It takes money and guts to go for this kind of binary events. I consider myself a weak hand this time around. After many disastrous wipeouts, I was determined to follow a strategy for come back plays --- getting in early and low, playing the expectation game, and getting out at the last minute before the big event. Although I miss the big money train this time, I feel this strategy has merits and shall follow religiously!

Will be working hard again to find the next DNDN/ITMN/ARNA for a third AdComm/PDUFA win (DNDN and ITMN were my two PDUFA wins, one with calls and the other with puts).

By the way, how and where did you find ARNA? Please share if you have possible candidates in sight!

Congratulations and enjoy!

 

[lazycatcat]

Congratulations !

It will be interesting to see its price tomorrow. My guess is $8 per share with $10 top...

 

[lazycatcat]

For bio, I think the bet should be firm till the end. Otherwise, the risk is probably not worthwhile....

This is always my view ... Stick to the end ... Otherwise, the risk is not worthwhile...

 

[加京游子]

Congratulations !

It will be interesting to see its price tomorrow. My guess is $8 per share with $10 top...

Thank you very much！

Let me say this to you one more time: there is nothing more stupid to give a specific price guess for a heavily manipulated stock with a binary event result. Any number guess is as good as any other --- I can pull a number out of my hair too! Do you know how many hedge funds went BK with DNDN in 2010? With 41 million shares shorted just two weeks ago, I am sure quite a few hedge funds will file for BK tomorrow at open! Never underestimate the power of short squeeze/margin call. Let me recommend to you to check out VW a couple of years ago if you are interested. ARNA's float is big and I expect volume topping 100M tomorrow --- two or three days after, all shareholders will be brand new --- it takes time for owners from 2010 and earlier to get out (some may have cost basis of 1.21-1.3). I won't commit myself as a long-term investor until I see the approval letter. ARNA is very different from DNDN and I will be a long-term investor after approval.

Any guesswork is no different from reading the chart tea leave --- charts can be a highly useful tool in regrads to companies with earnings but they are abso-fxxking-lutely trash in the case of pre-approval pre-earnings biotechs! This kinds of plays take more than money and guts! If you want to ask me, let me refer to you the letter sent to the FDA by the congress last September regarding novel drugs for obesity, the speech Michele Obama gave last October about obesity and costs to the healthcare systerm and the American economy, the changing labelling of obesity from "life choice" to a highly costly disease by the FDA last December --- changing political wind is the cue, and I posted that very early in my post above ARNA. The one and only legendary Jesse Livermore has said, weather patterns were his cue when he was playing crops futures, not the chart!

You need a "lose-all" heart and stomach plus a nose that can smell the political wind for this kind of play! I had the latter but not the former in this case!

 

[加京游子]

This is always my view ... Stick to the end ... Otherwise, the risk is not worthwhile...

You are surely entitled to your view/operations! Since the ARNA 2010 AdComm disaster, I have taken a different approach and so far, it is working very well --- I may miss the big payout but my capital is safe and growing, see the post above! My pain this going around with ARNA is that I took profits too aggressively --- haven't done the calculations but my cost basis is probably quite a few dollars negative --- I had one trade too many and that killed my gold mine!

 

[加京游子]

Good night everyone!

I got a couple of CC's to listen to.

I shall stop posting my analysis here but only trades like everyone else. Any discussion will need to be done in person and I demand a good drink!

 

[加京游子]

Say thank you and offer to buy me a cognac if you got in thanks to my postings!

I strongly wish one!

 

[nepean_01]

Congratulations from my bottom of my heart.

My friend holds her position too. I really share you guys' joy and happiness.

It is a bit mixed feeling for me, I have spent about 100 hours on studying VVUS, ARNA and OREX over last 3+ years. But I missed the final joyful moment. :blowzy:

But, hey, my best friend and you are holding till the finish line. What a joyful moment!