精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

你坚守不做FDA的铁的纪律是对的! 我自己在最后3天也心慌手软了，等了近两年却错过了一次翻身的机会！最多的时候我有3C，3.5C，4C，5C和6C各500加股票5000， -July1.5P100呢。这种重手法的赌，只有不想要了才能下得了手的。昨晚睡不着，想了还后怕呢。这一错过大概不下百万吧？真有点不好的感觉但还得去上班。

错过比错好，不怎么赚但不亏!

我今天可能把剩的卖掉，等批了再买回来做长期投资 --- 可能比现在贵不少但风险小很多的。

我实在没什么可学的。见个面，认识认识，喝一杯，聊聊天，挺好！电话跟我联系吧。我虽然年纪一大把但还是老顽童一个，有些笑话和重话，别往心里去！

祝好运！

Still, congratulations to this heavy hit ! With 200K in options, the gain is still sizable. Bio fields are full of speculative opportunities and there is always next time ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Personally, I don't think Nepean_01's strategy on bio works. Bio is about playing FDA rules. The trick is how to build a sustainable position, early.

Without betting on FDA event, one may win a few and then may lose big. I don't think the risk is worthwhile ...

 

[lazycatcat]

你坚守不做FDA的铁的纪律是对的! 我自己在最后3天也心慌手软了，等了近两年却错过了一次翻身的机会！最多的时候我有3C，3.5C，4C，5C和6C各500加股票5000， -July1.5P100呢。这种重手法的赌，只有不想要了才能下得了手的。昨晚睡不着，想了还后怕呢。这一错过大概不下百万吧？真有点不好的感觉但还得去上班。

错过比错好，不怎么赚但不亏!

我今天可能把剩的卖掉，等批了再买回来做长期投资 --- 可能比现在贵不少但风险小很多的。

我实在没什么可学的。见个面，认识认识，喝一杯，聊聊天，挺好！电话跟我联系吧。我虽然年纪一大把但还是老顽童一个，有些笑话和重话，别往心里去！

祝好运！

By the way, facing a truck is very difficult. I always think certain downward protection is probably needed to stick it out....The downward protection is a sacrifice on success and a recovery of say 70% of capital on failure ...

 

[hooper]

我最近好好回顾了2-3年前的交易，吓我自己一跳:

ELN4。95进的，5。5全出了，好几千股，现在12!

JAZZ进出25回以上，基本都在8-10! 都是小赚，现在50+! 最多时有好几千股!

MDVN (好像是个荷南的华侨办的公司, not sure, long time ago, cannot remember exactly) 大约两年多从50暴跌到10+时，买了几千，就赚

了几毛钱就跑了。现在80!!!!!!!!!!



还有很多。所以我很想重新回到医药股上，花时间好好研究，看看有什么机会。而

且我基本总结了一套炒药股的方法，很想跟您当面请教一下，因为我深知我对药股

的知识太过肤浅，很想从您身上多学点。:blowzy:

Sell winning stocks too soon and keep losing stocks too long. ----- Behavioral Finance

Do not be upset. After all, the average professional investment managers can only beat the index by a couple of percentages per year.

 

[加京游子]

Still, congratulations to this heavy hit ! With 200K in options, the gain is still sizable. Bio fields are full of speculative opportunities and there is always next time ...

I thought I was done posting here but feel compelled to respond to this.

1) Thank you very much for your goodwill!

2) I don't know from where you got your mistaken impression. I simply want to make it clear that at no point I committed $200K into ARNA this go round, leaving alone into options.

3) I sold off my measly AdComm position today at open (it is a pain to wait until 9:30am as there is no PM for options). The only exposure I have to ARNA at the moment is the naked shorted July 1.5P, which I had no intention to buy to close at the moment they were sold.

4) A lot of work and reflecton to do before the next move is made. I need a brief break both physically and mentally.

5) Developmental-stage pre-earnings biotech is genenrally speaking 90% landmines. Only about 1 in 10 makes it to the finish line and eventual profitability. That is the only reason why hedge funds dare to blatantly short undiscirminatorily. Some do go belly up but most deep-pocketed ones survive in the worst case scenario and they make their shorting loss back with reserving their position (covered and going long) (Stevie Cohen is one of the most notorious and CNBC's Cramer worked for him, for whom Adumb Fraustein is still working). A selected few can be gold mines but stepping into this pit, one really needs a making-a-lot-or-losing-all risk taking stomach. The risk is huge and real. One heavy wipeout may finish one's WS participation once and for all! Don't be lured into it by the rare overnight double --- it doesn't happen often and you can take my words for that!

If this space is chosen, one has to be highly selective in picking the battle fields with a warrior mentality, giving it all one can give. When I was with ELN, I dared to say that I knew everything Kelly Martin knew apart from insider info (I bought in 3 days after he became the CEO). When I was with DNDN, I dared to say I knew everything Mitch Gold knew apart from insider info. My attachment with ARNA will be long should it gain the FDA final nod and I hope I will be able to say the same thing about it as about ELN and DNDN. I have yet to meet with Jack Lief face to face.

If I can be of any advice, this is probably the only piece I will offer to everyone who asks for it.

6) I wish each and everyone the very best for whatever sandbox you choose to play and how to play it.

 

[lazycatcat]

I thought you said you held 500 call contracts each for 4 strike prices (3, 3.5, ...). So that is 200K underlying shares. Each share costs around $1.00 and this where the number is from ...

 

[加京游子]

I thought you said you held 500 call contracts each for 4 strike prices (3, 3.5, ...). So that is 200K underlying shares. Each share costs around $1.00 and this where the number is from ...

You did not read with attention. No need to say anything further.

 

[加京游子]

nepean_01:

Please help me set up the blog as you mentioned and teach me how to use it. I may need to put down some thoughts shortly. Thanks a lot in advance!

 

[lazycatcat]

Seems you are leaving too ? Maybe you can post the link to your blog ...

 

[加京游子]

Putting them down here before the blog is set up

ECYT: shares. Best value ever seen in the space, cash rich and big partner, full of short-, medium- and long-term catalysts: resumption of doxil supply and thus P3 enrollment; EMA filing for conditional approval; initiation of new trials and associated milestone payments from MRK. Cash position is very similar to MDVN after the Alzheimer trial failed but the pipeline is a lot richer.

CLDX: shares, June 5C, -June 4P, -June 3P. 011 Phase 2b topline results out May 23 via webcast; 110 Phase 2 Abstract presentation at ASCO.

RENN: shares, -May 6P. Big next week, ER and FB IPO.

DANG: -May 7P. ER next week; new CEO but when?

ARNA: -July 1.5P --- pretty tired and will take a brief break before re-entering. PDUFA June 27; CHMP opinion; EMA decision on MAA. Won't play July options as whether or not there will be an REMS requirement is not yet clear. A delay will kill both calls and puts like VVUS did to April options.

CLSN: July 1.5C, -July 2C (haven't done any re-alignment on this one for a long time). Thermodox for primary liver cancer Phase 3 registrational trial, topline results by year end.

DNN: shares. Recovery of the industry and uranium price.

AEZS: shares. Close to cash value but dead money until a catalyst is triggered.

 

[lazycatcat]

It will be pretty bad for you to leave. What about asking Riven for a special blog here ?

 

[加京游子]

nepean_01

不知道你是否还空着RENN，明天盘后出季报。这种时候做空的风险实在不值得冒。现在充满着各种猜测，如果用户达2亿的消息属实，礼拜2开始空家够喝一壶了。从逻辑和常理看，没有公司提前出季报是为了向市场通报坏消息吧？你我都受不了大的错了，宁愿少赚或不赚也不要再受大的损失了。 一次大毁灭一辈子都很难恢复得过来！

http://bolt.jebe.renren.com/introduce.htm

http://telecom.chinabyte.com/330/12331330.shtml

朋友还发来了这个：

http://news.imeigu.com/a/1336709584231.html

 

[nepean_01]

不知道你是否还空着RENN，明天盘后出季报。这种时候做空的风险实在不值得冒。现在充满着各种猜测，如果用户达2亿的消息属实，礼拜2开始空家够喝一壶了。从逻辑和常理看，没有公司提前出季报是为了向市场通报坏消息吧？你我都受不了大的错了，宁愿少赚或不赚也不要再受大的损失了。 一次大毁灭一辈子都很难恢复得过来！

http://bolt.jebe.renren.com/introduce.htm

http://telecom.chinabyte.com/330/12331330.shtml

I did cover my short. You are so kind, unlike most people in this town.......

 

[加京游子]

I did cover my short. You are so kind, unlike most people in this town.......

中国人民银行降低50个基本点的银行储备金标准！中国股近来被空得够呛，但愿这是一个转折点的催化剂！

出于不信任，我一直没碰中国股。今年年初开始碰DANG和RENN，前者两碰两队；后者对了一次但让大头溜了，这次挺错但没卖，反正买时就想做长期的，鹿死谁手还没定论。我对DANG和RENN的看法跟你相差挺大，可以详谈 （做假账是我最担心的，但对这两家我心里比较踏实，当然都是猜测）。

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...additional-liquidity/articleshow/13110784.cms

 

[加京游子]

Anybody buying/adding RENN today?

In light of what is already known and a possible earnings beat, I am adding today.