精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

In light of what is already known and a possible earnings beat, I am adding today.

1) Germany to the rescue and a rebound seems in the offering
2) In RENN for the FB IPO, early ER was a surprise. It beats topline and bottomline; FB to increase the pricing range thanks to strong demands. Let's see what the next few days will bring. To be blunt, I am terribly disappointed and frustrated with RENN. The two pieces of big news, 200M users and NeDA partnership, are nowhere to be found in the ER nor to be heard in the CC. RENN is going against my expectations.

 

[加京游子]

Stranger things have happened before!

Why ARNA's management tries to kill the pps is beyond me, honest to my brokerage account!

Announcement of a secondary offer without the size/pricing? First time for yours truly! The news makes extra work for me to dig up prior SEC filing. I thought my break could be a lot longer than this. No stranger place than WS!

Back in April 2010, ITMN exploded from 12 to 50 in a matter of days following its overwhelmingly positive AdComm outcome. I was expecting a secondary offer and bought April 45 and 40 puts, the expected never materialized and my puts were killed.

After the CRL in May, the company ended up selling their Phase 2 Hep. C drug candidate to its partner, raising 160M cash. That thing could have been worth of 1.6B today, I suppose.

What ARNA did today was simply the norm --- have seen quite a few going to secondary after good news/pps explosion.

 

[加京游子]

I was a seller and buyer of ARNA yesterday

Sold Jan. 2013 7.5P to fund the purchase of Jan. 2013 7.5C at the ratio of 1:2 with a credit of 30/put sold.

 

[加京游子]

You seem to be very long on ARNA...

Indeed! This is where I really want to be, come hell or high water. I over traded into the AdComm and ended up largely missing the big fat payout. Now that the first and biggest hurdle has spectacularly come down, I want to have a significant position and sit tight to the end. More often than not, my sitting has made/lost me far more money than active trading. Trading for 5-10% over a couple of days is great but I don't have the time, energy and savvy to achieve that on a consistent basis. I am mounting a comeback effort and a forceful comeback can only happen with sitting tight. This strategy can, of course, dig me into a deeper hole. I missed the AdComm at the 11th hour simply because I did not want to risk my capital at the time. After the vote, I am willing to wager like I did about DNDN in 2010.

I planned my re-entry around 6 either today or Monday after Op. Ex. around 6. The secondary made it earlier and cheaper than I have expected. As such, I moved without any hesitation/reservation. The risk now is attempting to time a few cents going down here and there but end up missing the big payout in dollars when the big move arrives and I don't have a position. For this type of plays, penny-smartness often turns out to be pound-foolishness. In my book, ARNA at 5.7 or 5.9 makes no difference whatsoever at this stage of the game. What matters is where it shall be 2 months (the PDUFA is only about 40 days away), 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years ... from now. This is one of those I strongly believe that can be had for a long time.

What I have gotten is about 3/5 of my planned core holding. In addition to topping that 2/5 up, I shall get some trading shares in the next few days once getting some of the dogs out of my account.

 

[加京游子]

For those who are concerned about me, thank you!

Just want to let you know that I am not hurt by RENN's and DANG's spectacular falls of the cliff the last couple of days. My sold puts were bought to close last Wed. and I sold off my RENN shares today at the open at a heavy loss, offset by the DANG profits earlier. All in all, I did not get hurt but I did not make any money off them by buying extra puts either.

It has been a pretty bad week and month --- largely missing the ARNA AdComm and also letting a large CLDX paper profit disappear --- what hurts badly is that when you don't sell while speculating with near confidence that it is going significantly lower --- while allowing a huge ECYT paper loss to show up at the account balance --- this is not a hindsight reflection, I am not cutting loss with ECYT even if it drops to 5/4/3.

After selling RENN, I bought ARNA shares and also sold Jan. 5P, going extra extra long.

To close out the post, here is my post to the ARNA YMB today. The responses are so active and lengthy that cut and paste take too much effort, so go to read it if you are interested. I may resort to write for Seeking Alpha and I will let you know if and when I do.

Finally, I shall be very grateful if anybody is willing to help me set up a blog and teach me how to use it.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/S...=tm&bn=1339&tid=314554&mid=314554&tof=2&frt=2

 

[加京游子]

Hope nobody owns DNDN and this post goes into the waste basket

I was hurt like no other by DNDN in 2007, and will likely never recover to the level I was at ever.

Provenge remains a revolution and milestone in the medical history book but the DNDN stock failed to get where it was widely expected to for 3 reasons: 1) the greedy CEO, Mitch Gold, did not want to share the pie with a big pharma back in 2005 by pounding the table and walking away from the negotiation table with DNA after being informed about 9902b's interim results, which burned the bridges and made big pharma and investment banks bitter adversaries; 2) roll out and ramp up costs are simply prohibitively high; and 3) logistics are simply too complex.

At the iTRADE dinner party last Wed. night (by invitation only), somebody happened to mention that he owns a ton of DNDN shares and hopes it will go up big and soon. I did not say a word but wishes him good luck in my heart. Then, I asked him why he bought it and he replied that it has fallen so much. Voila! John Johnson replaced Mitch Gold and Mr. Market gave a sympathy rally all way up to 15 because MG was so much hated. That was probably the last best selling opportunity Mr. Market offered. I dared to load up DNDN at 2.7 in Feb. 2009 for a comeback play because 9902b final result was in play. When Nuevenge changed from the P1 indication of breast cancer to P3 bladder cancer, my attachment with DNDN was completely cut off. I bought a little number of shares at 6.5 just for the fun of trading, see posts in this thread. I feel so sorry for the great number of friends who kept buying on the way down. I stopped following DNDN once my shares were sold at 15 but for reading, I occasionally check the ticker. John Johnson tried hard to sell SVNT when it was 25 but there was no taker. He was brought in to sell DNDN too but there doesn't appear to be a taker either. There is no telling how low the pps is going with this legal issue. No advice just like people buying RIMM!

A bold prediction: VVUS since 2009 tried to find a marketing partner but there is none up to this date. Why? That is the question to ask! Qnexa will be approved. The issue is what will come after approval! 9-12 months post approval, 5-10 kids will be born with cleft chin and 10-15 Qnexa users will die of heart attack. The FDA will yank Qnexa off the shelf. Ambulance chasers will sue VVUS's pants off. End of story! It took 2 cases of PML back in Feb. 2005 for ELN to tank from 36 to 3! Sell the AdComm or FDA's approval if you are playing with biotech --- yours truly thinks he knows about the sh*t after losing millions of dollars chiefly with ELN, DNDN, and ARNA! Don't apply TA in pre-approval pre-earings biotech --- the driving force is the story/AdComm/PDUFA! No medicine can be used without any side effect! Poor PFE did not make a penny off VIAGRA for the last 10 years not because of poor sales but because of expensive law suit settlements!

 

[colonel]

Just want to let you know that I am not hurt by RENN's and DANG's spectacular falls of the cliff the last couple of days. My sold puts were bought to close last Wed. and I sold off my RENN shares today at the open at a heavy loss, offset by the DANG profits earlier. All in all, I did not get hurt but I did not make any money off them by buying extra puts either.

It has been a pretty bad week and month --- largely missing the ARNA AdComm and also letting a large CLDX paper profit disappear --- what hurts badly is that when you don't sell while speculating with near confidence that it is going significantly lower --- while allowing a huge ECYT paper loss to show up at the account balance --- this is not a hindsight reflection, I am not cutting loss with ECYT even if it drops to 5/4/3.

After selling RENN, I bought ARNA shares and also sold Jan. 5P, going extra extra long.

To close out the post, here is my post to the ARNA YMB today. The responses are so active and lengthy that cut and paste take too much effort, so go to read it if you are interested. I may resort to write for Seeking Alpha and I will let you know if and when I do.

Finally, I shall be very grateful if anybody is willing to help me set up a blog and teach me how to use it.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/S...=tm&bn=1339&tid=314554&mid=314554&tof=2&frt=2

It is simple.

这个 网站 上 就 有 blog. 虽然 不 好看.

往上看, 在 控制 面 版 的 右面.

您 也 可以 去 文学 城建 一个 帐号.

在 blog 上 文, 和 写 回贴 差 不 多, 写 完 按 "发表" 按钮 就 可以了.

 

[加京游子]

It is simple.

这个 网站 上 就 有 blog. 虽然 不 好看.

往上看, 在 控制 面 版 的 右面.

您 也 可以 去 文学 城建 一个 帐号.

在 blog 上 文, 和 写 回贴 差 不 多, 写 完 按 "发表" 按钮 就 可以了.

我基本上是个机盲，什么blog，group弄不明白也不想弄明白。我只想搞一个兴趣讨论小组，互相交流选股、看法等。在这里我基本上是唱独角戏，得不到多少有益的探讨，也浪费别人的时间。一个朋友已经在google帮我建了个group，过几天我大概就熟悉了，就可以在那里小范围地讨论了。等我熟悉了，再发帖请有兴趣的朋友参加摸索。

 

[加京游子]

Have you set up the new blog yet ? This summer could be interesting...a replay of last summer is not impossible...

I will concentrate on the few biotech I think I know, nothing of interest to most people, anyway.

Anything is possible in WS --- just look at the FB hype, all those dollars were suckered in. Also, today's late session comeback is so forceful, amazing!

 

[加京游子]

Have you set up the blog yet ? Hope I can be on the invitation list ...

Being occupied by stuff and did not get around to it yet. Thanks for your interest and you will be invited when it gets off the ground.

Like I said, I won't venture much out of biotech. I park a pile of cash on ECYT, the most grossly undervalued I have ever come across. A lot was had around 7. Another good chunk was bought around 6.5 and only a little was picked up at 6.1. At 6.1-6.3, I would have gone in a lot deeper if my hand was not tied up with CLDX. I am currently significantly under water but don't worry one bit about this. I will wait patiently for this to take off. It is just one catalyst away from a double-digit pps. No idea when the catalyst will be triggered but feel rather safe at this ridiculously-valued level. The options are striked at 2.5 intervals, very hard to employ my usual strategy to play around.

CLDX's 011 data were out. The way I see it, the data were great but the stock have been going sideways, wiping out both calls and puts. I bought back my sold 4P and 3P just before the data release and ended up not making much off it. This was simply executing my plan --- could not handle all those shares that would have been put to me in case of a miss. Hindsight, selling options (covered calls and naked writing puts) make a killing. I am sticking to my strategy --- selling puts only to reduce cost basis or buy at discount price in a future day, not to make huge profits off selling puts. And I don't sell covered calls during big events.

I have also built a core position in ARNA (long 7.5C, short 7.5P and 5P, all Jan. 2013) and wait close to the PDFUA date to get my traders. I don't believe there will be an REMS and delay but want to guard against it and hence only about 50% in.

Hesitated a couple of days ago to pull the trigger for AMRN at 10 and it appears I will miss this wave of runup.

DNDN is getting interesting for an ASCO play. Its own data are only part of the story, those from JNJ and MDVN will greatly affect its pps. I feel a big move either way is about to take place. I may go for a straddle but have not finally decided yet. Options pricing is not very rich and hence tradable. ARNA killed all puts holders as they were so richly priced before the AdComm.

ONTY becomes ownable again as it is about 10% lower than the secondary pricing --- I love to get in at cheaper prices than the big boys.

 

[加京游子]

Have you set up the blog yet ? Hope I can be on the invitation list ...

You claim to be good at reading financials. Please read ECYT's latest filing and tell me what you find. I know what it is and this is the final test of your DD ability. You will never get to talk to me again if you get it wrong with ECYT. I don't want to waste any more time, period. I only want to talk to people with whom I share common straits. You score big on picking up ARMN. By the way, DCTH is diluted at 1.5 + .25 warrant per share exercisable at 1.76. I hate myself very much for sticking to my rule of not shorting. But I will stick to that rule to the end.

 

[加京游子]

This is a rather interesting bio company. Just a quick cap on liquidity (and later on ownership). Its cash holding will be $240 M (including $120 from Merk) with its debt load negligible. The company is selling at its cash value.

Quarterly burn-rate is at $10 M and thus the company is sufficiently capitalized.

Currently it is at Phase III trial (just started). Assuming it takes two years to complete (haven't digged into 10Q yet), total cash need is around $100 M.

Now, the question is why the market doesn't recognize this ?

I am new to the company and maybe you know the history better...

Wall Street is not rational at times, and ECYT is one of those crazy stocks. It has $257M cash in the bank with $9.7 commitment in rental lease. It has about a total of 37M shares outstanding and fully diluted (no warrant nor options outstanding). Future milestone payment commitment from MRK is about $880M, not to mention the royalty. It has responsibilities to complete the two ongoing trials but MRK will reimburse the costs. MRK covers any future developmental costs in relation to 045 for the possibility of up to 6 more indications. With the cash on hand, never a worry about capital raise and dilution, the first and ever the last I will ever find in baby biotech. I can never stress enough about the importance of cash in developmental stage biotech after seeing so many being diluted to the brink of BK.

As good as I feel about ARNA going forward, I pile cash on ECYT as it is safer!

Occasionally, I may come up with a gold mine or two, and I really feel I have found them in ECYT and ARNA at the present time. I love to share if there are sharp eyes out there. Like I repeatedly said, I don't want to waste my time any more. I gave out ARNA when it was trading between 1.7-1.8 and I gave out ECYT when it was trading around 7. These are the two biotech I have significant positions in. I have a hand in CLDX too but they are in June 5C and may very well expire worthless. Any further discussion will need to be had in the context of position. There is no point in talking to anyone without a stake involved.

AMRN shall be my next big target if I can get my hand on it. I try very hard to find emerging leaders to play with, not the current leaders. I see both ECYT and ARNA in double digits by year's end --- a minimum of a double, sell in May and go away or not . And I have no found any other stocks with that potential, biotech or otherwise.

Any further discussion will require you to disclose a position. You are very good in paper games but I don't play that.

 

[加京游子]

Quickly checked news last November. Obviously, Phase II results were not well regarded. I guess this is why the current valuation.

The market is not willing to put too much value on the drug under Phase III trial....

You tend to catch yesterday's news most of the time! Listen to the most recent CC! That piece of news was about the P2B trial for platinum-resistent ovarian cancer, For which the stock lost over 1/2 of its value. But the company will file for EMA conditional MAA in Q3 with the blessing from MRK and after repeated discussions with the EMA. The P3 trail for lung cancer enrolment was suspended because of the doxil supply shortage, which the FDA has allowed it to reverse-import from Europe for the trial purpose, and JNJ is about to resume doxil supply shortly. The trial enrolment is about to resume and that is exactly the kind of catalyst that will kick off the violent runup.

Biotech speculation is about the future, not yesterday's news,. The current market valuation is exactly where one can find the edge, which you constantly talk about but always fail to take advantage. I find you a good candidate to talk to but if you are playing paper games, I will have to disappoint you --- I have no interest in paper game or paper game players. Only when one puts chips on the table does the game mean something! You can talk all you want when you don't have chips on the table and you have done that more than once. If everything is fairly valued by the market, how can you find the edge to play with?

 

[加京游子]

Quickly checked news last November. Obviously, Phase II results were not well regarded. I guess this is why the current valuation.

The market is not willing to put too much value on the drug under Phase III trial....

You pissed me off many times before with your constant Buffett BS and current market valuation BS. Using your own argument, Buffett never buys stocks that he sees as fairly valued by the current market!

The reason I am still in conversation with you is sometimes you come up with questions as stupid as they get and that inspire me to think and dig deeper!

FB was valued at 38 by the market because of hype and went to 45 minutes after open. Shorts make a killing thanks to market valuation! I will cease to talk to you ever again if you don't even see that! The current market should be viewed as a servant not a master!!!

I failed big time before because I did not get out for huge profits and the big events turned out to devastate me in the end. I am a loser not because of lack of vision. Rather, I have caught on with a few medical revolutions and paid the price for being the pioneer. I tend to be biased towards the positivity of things and life. That is what keeps me going and going. When I tried to correct that biase, I tended to over do. It is very hard to find a balance. And this trait is probably given by parents, not by learning! Time shall be the ultimate judge. The game I am playing doesn't end next Tuesday, Wed., ... the end of 2012/2013.

I don't see myself as the material for quick trading. I don't see myself as the material for long-term investing either. In my book, there is no such thing as investment, only speculation! And I speculate on the future with big events/catalysts that I can see forthcoming. And I view my big-time miss with ARNA's AdComm as an ultimate failure for one and one reason only --- I was not willing to take the risk of being hit hard again at the 11th hour. Probably the safest way to play but I still feel very bad about bailing out a big bet in the last minutes. That is why I don't care about getting back into ARNA at 5.6 or 6 any more. I simply don't want to miss out again. The way I see it, the risk is no longer of suffering some downside with owning but rather of missing huge gains with no ownership

 

[加京游子]

The contract with ECYT and Merck is interesting then. I will check out the 10Q ...

Personally, I don't think any questions regarding a company is stupid. Stock investment and speculation is in the context of incomplete information. Therefore, examination from multiple angles is required.

Speculation is at the mercy of strangers. So, some understanding of market reaction is warranted. Taking ARNA as an example, you had the experience to point out that the price at $1.7 was artificially low and I had the same feeling at that time. However, due to the controlling position of these speculators, others are at their mercy. Fighting against them took a lot of guts...

This is very different from investment like in USB or WFC. The earning power is there and if payout dividend ratio is at historical level, the dividend rate will be at 5 or 6% at current stock price. In other words, they are able to put on the table for people to grab them...

Even in that area, one has to examine from different angles. Taking WFC and JPM as examples. Buffett has been praising the CEO of both companies and also personally took position in JPM. By reading biographies, I traced Jamie Dimon's career and there is no doubt he is an outstanding CEO. However, the amount of notional value on JPM's book is so huge and one has to wonder if it is possible to manage at all.

So, by examining from different angles, one will probably convict on WFC but just follow on JPM.

For DNDN, same situation here. I took a small bet on DNDN's approval but dumped the position at the first instance. It is not that I had doubt on the product of DNDN. Rather, a venture company is very different from an operational company. The people and risk profiles are all different....

So hopefully the questions and postings I put here are helpful in some way ...

Putting real dollars on the table will make one a better student! Lip service is free!

I had an opinion and I backed it up with a position. It is your money, you do whatever you want. I am not interested in talking without a position (bull or bear), as simple as that.