看来房价是要跌了。。。。。

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看来房价是要跌了, 迹象如下:

1. Richcraft 在riverside 五个月总共才卖了六个single houses.
2. 市场上的房子越来越多(grapevine, mls). 就是这个论坛上的房for sale的椰干着多了起来了。
3. food price, energy, gas expenses this year will increase by 7% this year worldwide, our salary are not expected to increase by such much, this means that we earn much less money than before. Less money will be left to purchase houses any more. Also due to inflation, bank interest will increase soon I guess.
4. If the house prices keep rising, Canada will gradually lose its priority for immigration and livings. If we need to work hard for the whole life only for a house, why we come here, for what? so bad weather, no access to our lifestyles we already got used to, so high tax.
5. Check how they build the house, what materials they use, and how much they paid for the land, you will know that a house is not worth that much in value. The cost to build a 2000 square feet house is around 150K I guess. The price now is too much overpriced. It is not healthy, it is a bubble, sooner or later it will break, it is kind of stock (although a bit different).
6. In ottawa, chinese population counts for about maybe 5%, but check what percentage of houses were sold to chinese now, 40%? I guess. Why? Because of the traditional concept and also many chinese believe that the house price will keep rising, buy a house is kind of investment, some even buy two or more.
7. Most local residents cannot afford purchasing any houses, the sale of houses mainly rely on rich investment immigrants now.
8. Builders accumulated lots of money in recent years, so they have the capability to keep the market a bit longer, 硬撑着。。。

Typed these things in a few minutes, lots of errors I guess, haha...
 
要考虑一个因素,就是今天3月雨雪太多,这个影响很多房子的销售。有一个魁北克这边的中介说他和他的同事都注意到今年的市场season比往年晚很多。
 
LZ的身份是?打算最近卖房还是卖房还是抄低?或者是路过打酱油?
 
Well, 多伦多跟温哥华上个月刚刚达到了当地房价的新高。
渥太华上涨了2%

此外政府400k+的新房子有税,2手房子没有税的
 
Well, 多伦多跟温哥华上个月刚刚达到了当地房价的新高。
渥太华上涨了2%
看跌房价的人已经近乎绝望了. :D

经济数据不停的好转, 现在咱村好多雇主都找不着人. 人要有份正经工作, 谁怕房价涨?

其实咱村的房价涨幅比起多伦多温哥华温和得多了. 中国的投资购房者迟早是要杀到咱村的. 资本总是朝逐利的方向移的. 多伦多温哥华房市赢利空间已经很小了.

我去年就说今年初房价必然反弹, 贴子还在. 现在Kanata Lakes连最小的二手的Townhouse都几乎没有30万以下的了. 去年这时候几乎没有上30万的.

还在指望暴跌? 慢慢等吧, 也许会有那一天, 但决不是今年或者明年.

另外回LZ: 咱村现在这房价水平, 比起中国北上广深等一线城市那是Nothing. 国内很多二线乃至三线城市的房价换成加元都贵过咱村. Why Chinese people keep coming to Canada? 因为你卖掉北京一套三环内你只有几十年使用权的二手公寓可以到咱村买一栋你拥有永久产权的全新Single.
 
另外回LZ: 咱村现在这房价水平, 比起中国北上广深等一线城市那是Nothing. 国内很多二线乃至三线城市的房价换成加元都贵过咱村. Why Chinese people keep coming to Canada? 因为你卖掉北京一套三环内你只有几十年使用权的二手公寓可以到咱村买一栋你拥有永久产权的全新Single.

北京一套三环内公寓=~$1m big house here:)
 
LZ接着"看"哈
 
看来房价是要跌了, 迹象如下:

3. food price, energy, gas expenses this year will increase by 7% this year worldwide, our salary are not expected to increase by such much, this means that we earn much less money than before. Less money will be left to purchase houses any more. Also due to inflation, bank interest will increase soon I guess.

Typed these things in a few minutes, lots of errors I guess, haha...

如果通货膨胀厉害的话,更应该买房,因为房产保值。
 
这里的新房子建筑成本是$140/平尺。供大家参考

If the building permit value is the cost of building the house, then I think the cost is about $70 per sqft. e.g. a 3500 sqft house, building permit value is about $250k
 
If the building permit value is the cost of building the house, then I think the cost is about $70 per sqft. e.g. a 3500 sqft house, building permit value is about $250k

I can't help but to correct you, the building cost use to be $100/sqf, since the increase of the building materials. now people use $140-$170/sqf when calculating the cost, and don't forget the cost of the lot.
 
.............楼上说的都是single house的计算方法吧
townhouse没那么贵哈......
 
不知道楼主是留学生还是老移民,写出来的英文让我读起来很费劲。不是错误的问题,是基本语法和表达的问题。希望楼主能多多注意。我自己也是英文很差,不知道哪位大侠能告知提高英文的方法。


哎,已经是老移了。。。

wrote those stuff within a few minutes, so more like oral english la...
 
咱就着个人观点小侃一个

1. Richcraft 在riverside 五个月总共才卖了六个single houses.
咱们不能只看一个builder的,而且也不能只看single house的,此外你这个数据哪里来的。 房市是new construction+used的销售,里头房子还分不同类别的

2. 市场上的房子越来越多(grapevine, mls). 就是这个论坛上的房for sale的椰干着多了起来了。
有一定的买家是在赶3月18号新mortgage rule,以后就没有35年的term了.

3. food price, energy, gas expenses this year will increase by 7% this year worldwide, our salary are not expected to increase by such much, this means that we earn much less money than before. Less money will be left to purchase houses any more. Also due to inflation, bank interest will increase soon I guess.
bank interest的升值对于variable rate的mortgage owner是个压力,还有refinance房子或者(HELOC)的家庭是个负担,但是这个应该单独拿出来算一点,跟grocery不是一个问题

4. If the house prices keep rising, Canada will gradually lose its priority for immigration and livings. If we need to work hard for the whole life only for a house, why we come here, for what? so bad weather, no access to our lifestyles we already got used to, so high tax.
房价一直在涨,这个理由跟移不移民你不应该混淆的.你看看20年前甚至10年前的房价,再看看移民的数量,一直在增加. 此外高福利国家必然是高税收的.可能我们觉得是bad weather,不过很多人会觉得4季分明,喜欢可以滑雪的日子,所以这个是要看个人的.

5. Check how they build the house, what materials they use, and how much they paid for the land, you will know that a house is not worth that much in value. The cost to build a 2000 square feet house is around 150K I guess. The price now is too much overpriced. It is not healthy, it is a bubble, sooner or later it will break, it is kind of stock (although a bit different).
市场决定了价格,而且之前的金融危机更是推动了固定资产市场的扩张,现在inflation上去了,各种原料的花销也增加了. builder一定是赚钱的,这个不容置疑.但是渥太华的泡沫各种数据来看,没有温哥华跟多伦多的大,那头的本地人有多少买的起房子的.渥太华平均家庭收入,各个人多地区怎么也有8万-12万吧,一个房子多少钱,为啥买不起?很多时候只是个人生活习惯决定的.有些人不买房就是因为觉得买房收拾麻烦.

6. In ottawa, chinese population counts for about maybe 5%, but check what percentage of houses were sold to chinese now, 40%? I guess. Why? Because of the traditional concept and also many chinese believe that the house price will keep rising, buy a house is kind of investment, some even buy two or more.
我不知道这2个百分比的数据怎么来的.不过我知道投资着东西看个人心理承受能力,华人更倾心于固定资产的投资,因为风险小.

7. Most local residents cannot afford purchasing any houses, the sale of houses mainly rely on rich investment immigrants now.
楼主你把渥太华跟温哥华跟多伦多混淆了吧?

8. Builders accumulated lots of money in recent years, so they have the capability to keep the market a bit longer, 硬撑着。。。
我个人认为现在是政府宏观在调控,要让builder从一脑子新房建设的热潮中拉出来(08,09的时候他们真的是疯了),要把暂时没有还贷能力的人从房市里头拉出来.
 
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