十一月八日盘后，十一月九日瞎猜计划

[nepean_01]

INHX, Inhibitex Starting to look for a swing trade on the SHORT
side the next 1-3 days and will also be a good day trading stock
both on the long and short sides. See focus chart

 

[nepean_01]

BTU is a good buy 41.70!!!!!!!!!!!:blowzy:

 

[nepean_01]

I am holding a lot SIFY, could go again if dapan is up!

 

[nepean_01]

REDF

If it breaks 11.20, then momentum will kick in.:blowzy:

 

[lazycatcat]

Any comments on today's market action ?

 

[nepean_01]

Any comments on today's market action ?

Most likely, the down trend will be developed over next few days because of the following news.

【快讯：美股重挫】在德国的商业日报Handelsblatt报道称，德国总理默克尔的执政党希望使欧洲国家退出欧元区成为可能之后，美国股市尾盘跌幅扩大。

 

[nepean_01]

Any comments on today's market action ?

Cat,
I do think you might be right for the current market situation because the TA is not working right now... So many unknown problems come from 欧洲. I do expect the worse is yet to come!!!!!!!!!!

Be careful. But my SODA is up 10% in the open today and still up 6% in the end. Most other longs are getting beaten down pretty hard!:flaming:

 

[lazycatcat]

Cat,
I do think you might be right for the current market situation because the TA is not working right now... So many unknown problems come from 欧洲. I do expect the worse is yet to come!!!!!!!!!!

Be careful. But my SODA is up 10% in the open today and still up 6% in the end. Most other longs are getting beaten down pretty hard!:flaming:

I don't know much about TA. Do you know a bit more details on SODA's business ? I know it sells SODA machine but not sure why people like it.

For market trend, I think checking out FFH.TO's annual and quarterly report might be useful.

Personally, I think it is very difficult to find a good solution on European debt. There must be shocks in order to make a democracy move. What could that shock be ? The other extreme of democracy is nobody cares and nobody wants to make hard decision.

Italy's currency was always a problem and it was magic that it became a 'saint' once joining Euro.

GMCR is in spot light tonight. So will JVA I guess.

Any good ideas ?

 

[nepean_01]

S&P Plunges 3.7% as Italian Bond Yields Reach 'Point of No Return'
Written by Scott Redler
November 9, 2011 05:39pm
The market was hammered Wednesday, with all major indices selling off more than 3% amid fears regarding Italian debt. The Nasdaq was hit hardest, selling off 3.88%. The Italian 10-year bond yield spiked after margins were raised, surging past the 7% threshold that is considered the point of no return. Measures need to be taken quickly to lower borrowing costs in Italy, Europe's third largest economy.

Today was definitely a "day to take notice of" in the market. The last one of these highly significant days was back on October 4th when the market put in an outside bullish reversal. Short interest and pessimism had reach climactic levels, setting the stage for a powerful bounce after the reversal. The bounce over the last two days occurred on paltry volume, which made today's harsh sell-off possible.

The October 4th reversal produced a 17% rally, and I am by no means opining that today's reversal will take us all the way back down. My point is that you have to respect today's significance. I would not hold trading longs at this level, even though it would be painful to sell into such weakness. I came into the day with several longs, but today's action got me flat before noon.


*DISCLOSURES: Scott Redler has no positions

 

[nepean_01]

Wow, GMCR!!!!!!!!!

My friend bet on SHORTING GMCR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow, happy for my friend!!!!!!!!!!!!

I do not bet on ER!

 

[lazycatcat]

S&P Plunges 3.7% as Italian Bond Yields Reach 'Point of No Return'
Written by Scott Redler
November 9, 2011 05:39pm
The market was hammered Wednesday, with all major indices selling off more than 3% amid fears regarding Italian debt. The Nasdaq was hit hardest, selling off 3.88%. The Italian 10-year bond yield spiked after margins were raised, surging past the 7% threshold that is considered the point of no return. Measures need to be taken quickly to lower borrowing costs in Italy, Europe's third largest economy.

Today was definitely a "day to take notice of" in the market. The last one of these highly significant days was back on October 4th when the market put in an outside bullish reversal. Short interest and pessimism had reach climactic levels, setting the stage for a powerful bounce after the reversal. The bounce over the last two days occurred on paltry volume, which made today's harsh sell-off possible.

The October 4th reversal produced a 17% rally, and I am by no means opining that today's reversal will take us all the way back down. My point is that you have to respect today's significance. I would not hold trading longs at this level, even though it would be painful to sell into such weakness. I came into the day with several longs, but today's action got me flat before noon.


*DISCLOSURES: Scott Redler has no positions

You are definitely very nimble. I guess that is important for short-ter too m trading. Doing day-trading is too stressful for me.

It would be nice for Greece to go default. Europe needs an example of distress to be pulled out. My personal take is US market won't be qualitatively changed by situation in Europe. In other words, there shouldn't be huge panic like Lehnman.

Therefore, the more stressful it is, the more opportunities. It is always easier to do investment in a low market than in a high market.

So, the lower the better. FAZ has the probability of going down all the way to 0. If it goes sharply high again, certain low probability bet can probably be done very cheaply.

I checked out GMCR's option due tomorrow yesterday. It was very expensive either way. So, not any chance for me ...

 

[lazycatcat]

One are of speculation with measured risk is M&A arbitrage. This is an interesting business that many famous investors specialized in.

Current two examples are x.to and yahoo. 'x.to' has an outstanding bid at $50 per share. Its structure is a bit complicated - around $40 will be paid in cash and rest in stocks. It is still pending regulation approval. If one believes in long-term future of x.to, it is worth considering although a bit late.

The net profit margin of x.to is close to 35% after tax and this has been the case since a few years ago.

Yahoo is probably a bit speculative. However, its April 2012 put at $10 was at $0.10. If it is sold, it is probably reasonable to expect a price at around $20. So, taking some measured risks is probably worth considering.

M&A arbitrage requires some study but probably not too extensively...

 

[nepean_01]

Cat,
YAHOO will be taken over, it is just the matter of when!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its call is very reasonable to me.

 

[nepean_01]

義大利成歐債危機新引爆點

November 09, 2011 06:00 AM |
在希臘總理巴本德里歐迫於壓力，8日要求內閣總辭，向下台邁出一步，債務危機解決有望後，義大利已取代希臘，成為歐債危機中的新焦點。據估算，目前義大利國內債務的總額已達希臘的五倍之多。
報導說，義大利的債務總額高達1兆9000億歐元，占歐元區整體的債務的20%以上，西班牙、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭三國的債務總額相加，都沒有義大利一個國家多。

 

[nepean_01]

高盛對意大利敞口為23億美元

(11/9/2011 12:25:26 PM CFN)


彭博援引一份SEC文件稱，高盛(GS)披露了該公司截止9月30日對意大利政府，金融機構以及公司的信用敞口為23.2億美元，用對沖方式抵消風險後凈資金敞口為7億美元。其他銀行對意大利的凈敞口包括：摩根士丹利(MS)為17.9億美元，摩根大通(JPM)為55億美元，美國銀行(BAC)為65.4億美元，這些都是截止9月底的數據。