Cat,
I keep almost ALL in CASH over the weekend.
Only index got pushed, this is a totally FAKE snap back rally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MM are cheating on indexes!!!!!!!!!!
Be careful!
It is definitely wise to be cautious. It is quite difficult to predict where this market is going, given the politicians are in the driving seats.
My personal feeling is biased towards up side. The debt situation is controllable as long as there is political will. ECB could buy up 20 to 30% of Italian debt as long as Italian government has the will to implement the austerity plan.
As to Greece, the best approach is really for it to default. However, this doesn't seem to happen.
So, near-term there may not be surprises.
One interesting observation is action of gold and oil. Gold seems to say that any stabilization will come at the cost of inflation and huge devaluation of currency.
Stock price of oil companies is indicating to downward trend of oil price. Not sure how this will play out. At $100 per barrel, oil sand companies could be quite profitable.
Not sure if you have any access to paid research. Based on a very rough estimate, it seems capital requirement for 1 barrel per day capacity of oil sand is at $10,000. Suncore is managing to reduce cash expense of 1 barrel to $35.
So, at $100, gross profit is at $65 per day. This translates to $23,000 gross profit per year !
One trick on oil sand is to figure out how much capital has been invested and how much is needed in the future.
For the former, what is the discount at current share price ? For the latter, what is per barrel capital expenditure.
One advantage of oil sand is the reserve is very predictable and economy of scale is easier to achieve.
For instance, Suncore has 17 B barrel proven and contigent reserves. At 0.6 M barrel per day (currently at 0.3 M barrels per day), annual output is ~200 M barrels. Life of reserve will be close to 100 years.
It is probably a good time to do some study on the oil sands and the piplelines ....
全部清空了!!!!! 观望下!
