- 注册
- 2008-03-06
- 消息
- 352
- 荣誉分数
- 156
- 声望点数
- 103
Can not agree more.
I think there are high possiblity that it will be continuing going up this year. And be cautious, but we always be cautious in the market.
大盘见顶了吗?
- 主题发起人 nepean_01
- 开始时间
Can not agree more.
I think there are high possiblity that it will be continuing going up this year. And be cautious, but we always be cautious in the market.
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
Another topping day,,,
shemozhuben
新手上路
- 注册
- 2010-07-31
- 消息
- 786
- 荣誉分数
- 31
- 声望点数
- 0
Market goes up 75% of the time. The odds of going down is even worse than flipping a coin... It's futile to short the market.
Stay on the long side & control your size over the weekend
The market keeps rising and the S&P 500 hit over 1400
level today, the highest in 4 years. We are starting to see
the media tell the mainstream population about the rise
in the stock market and we have been seeing money
cycle out of bonds and into stocks. This trend can
continue for quite some time and with the positive news
in economic news in the USA, we should see stocks
continue moving up.
We are in a situation where we know this is a longer bull
run than normal and stocks may be “over bought” by
some metrics but it we should keep riding this wave until
signs the market is topping out. But so far, nothing yet.
What it looks like is high volatility usually with a big drop
on some news, indicating the market is nervous. Or
some fundamental news event that could change the
trend. But we have had good economic data, more
confirmation that the Federal Reserve will support a very
low interest rate environment and Obama keeps having
the Fed pump money into the system to help his reelection
chances.
Stay on the long side and we have not seen any good
short ideas.
The Dow30 was up 0.44%, Nasdaq Composite was up
0.51%, the S&P 500 was up 0.60% and the Russell 2000
was up 0.98%. The CBOE Volatility Index which is a gauge
used to measure fear in the market place was up 0.65%.
In economic news, Jobless Claims dropped more than
expected to 351K compared to the 355K that was
anticipated. Empire Manufacturing rose to 20.2 which was
higher than the 15.0 that was expected. Also the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% which was slightly less than
expected.
Financial stocks were strong today as BAC, Bank of America was up 4.5% at the close Thursday, GS, Goldman Sachs was
up 2.2%, C, Citigroup was up 3%, WFC, Wells Fargo was up 2.1%, and JPM, JPMorgan was up 2.5%.
In earnings news, GES, Guess was down 10.1% at the close on Thursday after reporting weak earnings that did not meet
expecations.
RVSN, Radvision was up 4.4% after news they were being bought by Avaya in a deal worth $230 million.
The market keeps rising and the S&P 500 hit over 1400
level today, the highest in 4 years. We are starting to see
the media tell the mainstream population about the rise
in the stock market and we have been seeing money
cycle out of bonds and into stocks. This trend can
continue for quite some time and with the positive news
in economic news in the USA, we should see stocks
continue moving up.
We are in a situation where we know this is a longer bull
run than normal and stocks may be “over bought” by
some metrics but it we should keep riding this wave until
signs the market is topping out. But so far, nothing yet.
What it looks like is high volatility usually with a big drop
on some news, indicating the market is nervous. Or
some fundamental news event that could change the
trend. But we have had good economic data, more
confirmation that the Federal Reserve will support a very
low interest rate environment and Obama keeps having
the Fed pump money into the system to help his reelection
chances.
Stay on the long side and we have not seen any good
short ideas.
The Dow30 was up 0.44%, Nasdaq Composite was up
0.51%, the S&P 500 was up 0.60% and the Russell 2000
was up 0.98%. The CBOE Volatility Index which is a gauge
used to measure fear in the market place was up 0.65%.
In economic news, Jobless Claims dropped more than
expected to 351K compared to the 355K that was
anticipated. Empire Manufacturing rose to 20.2 which was
higher than the 15.0 that was expected. Also the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% which was slightly less than
expected.
Financial stocks were strong today as BAC, Bank of America was up 4.5% at the close Thursday, GS, Goldman Sachs was
up 2.2%, C, Citigroup was up 3%, WFC, Wells Fargo was up 2.1%, and JPM, JPMorgan was up 2.5%.
In earnings news, GES, Guess was down 10.1% at the close on Thursday after reporting weak earnings that did not meet
expecations.
RVSN, Radvision was up 4.4% after news they were being bought by Avaya in a deal worth $230 million.
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
Hm... LZ just got converted ?
According to 5th Fibanacci, the convexity is very deep and 3rd derivatives look steep. According to butter-fly theory, this is typical in the middle Elliot wave.
Therefore, the chance of going up is probably positive but protection on the downside is also warranted ...
According to 5th Fibanacci, the convexity is very deep and 3rd derivatives look steep. According to butter-fly theory, this is typical in the middle Elliot wave.
Therefore, the chance of going up is probably positive but protection on the downside is also warranted ...
I am standing on the long side. I did sell a lot of long position to control the overall size, such as: selling of PCX, BTU, SINA, PCLN. But still holds FSLR, TVIX (as hedge somehow), HGSI, ERX, TSL, CSIQ.
Good luck on short!
Overall, long will outperform short until we see the FIRST big drop. There is always a sign to tell the topping which has not happened yet.
DON'T GUESS THE TOPPING!
ALWAYS TRADE BASED ON WHAT YOU SAW NOT WHAT YOU GUESS OR HOPE OR WISH!!!!!!:blowzy:
Good luck on short!
Overall, long will outperform short until we see the FIRST big drop. There is always a sign to tell the topping which has not happened yet.
DON'T GUESS THE TOPPING!
ALWAYS TRADE BASED ON WHAT YOU SAW NOT WHAT YOU GUESS OR HOPE OR WISH!!!!!!:blowzy:
more money will chase the gains
US stocks end up with a big week with S&P 500 up 2.43%
this week alone and Dow30 and Nasdaq also turning in
2.24 and 2.4% gains. The Nasdaq has had an overall
17.2% year to date gain so far with a big gun from that
October 4th low. I still think there is a very good chance
that:blowzy: we have been
seeing in the market. There will be more pressure for
money managers to obtain higher returns and they will
be the first to cycle out of yield performing bonds and
into stocks and then the retail customers. It is almost a
peer pressure event at this point and my suggestion is to
continue to ride this bullish wave and stay on long
positions until there is clear evidence the cycle has
ended.
What has been performing well is to cycle into shorter
term swing trades that move up within days or a couple
of weeks and cycling out into newer ones when the move
up stalls. The longer term stocks that have performed
well are a steady gradual uptrend such as MNST or CMG
on this report but most are shorter term swing trades
that seem to be getting 7-15% gains within a couple of
weeks.
We are still scanning for short ideas but nothing looking
good yet, everything pointing up so far. Don’t get greedy
or complacent because at some point the market will turn down from this record breaking bull run we have seen.
The Dow30, Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 all had virtually no change Friday. The CBOE Volatility
index which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place was down 6.1% making a lower low and finishing below
15 at the close. The Vix hit 13.76 intraday on Friday which is the lowest reading in five years.
In economic news, Industrial Production came in unchanged for February which was less than expected. The Consumer
Price Index (CPI), the most widely used inflation indicator, rose 0.4% which was in line with expectations.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 74.3 for March which was slightly less than the 75.8 that was
expected.
Home builders were for the most part down on Friday. DHI, DR Horton was down 1.7%, LEN, Lennar was down 1.1%,
PHM, Pulte Homes was down 3.3%, and TOL, Toll Brothers was down 0.7%.
In merger and acquisition news (M&A's) UPS, UPS reported being in talks again to acquire TNT Express. The last proposal
from UPS was for $6.4 billion for the Dutch competitor
US stocks end up with a big week with S&P 500 up 2.43%
this week alone and Dow30 and Nasdaq also turning in
2.24 and 2.4% gains. The Nasdaq has had an overall
17.2% year to date gain so far with a big gun from that
October 4th low. I still think there is a very good chance
that:blowzy: we have been
seeing in the market. There will be more pressure for
money managers to obtain higher returns and they will
be the first to cycle out of yield performing bonds and
into stocks and then the retail customers. It is almost a
peer pressure event at this point and my suggestion is to
continue to ride this bullish wave and stay on long
positions until there is clear evidence the cycle has
ended.
What has been performing well is to cycle into shorter
term swing trades that move up within days or a couple
of weeks and cycling out into newer ones when the move
up stalls. The longer term stocks that have performed
well are a steady gradual uptrend such as MNST or CMG
on this report but most are shorter term swing trades
that seem to be getting 7-15% gains within a couple of
weeks.
We are still scanning for short ideas but nothing looking
good yet, everything pointing up so far. Don’t get greedy
or complacent because at some point the market will turn down from this record breaking bull run we have seen.
The Dow30, Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 all had virtually no change Friday. The CBOE Volatility
index which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place was down 6.1% making a lower low and finishing below
15 at the close. The Vix hit 13.76 intraday on Friday which is the lowest reading in five years.
In economic news, Industrial Production came in unchanged for February which was less than expected. The Consumer
Price Index (CPI), the most widely used inflation indicator, rose 0.4% which was in line with expectations.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 74.3 for March which was slightly less than the 75.8 that was
expected.
Home builders were for the most part down on Friday. DHI, DR Horton was down 1.7%, LEN, Lennar was down 1.1%,
PHM, Pulte Homes was down 3.3%, and TOL, Toll Brothers was down 0.7%.
In merger and acquisition news (M&A's) UPS, UPS reported being in talks again to acquire TNT Express. The last proposal
from UPS was for $6.4 billion for the Dutch competitor
shemozhuben
新手上路
- 注册
- 2010-07-31
- 消息
- 786
- 荣誉分数
- 31
- 声望点数
- 0
I don't understand how the current market level is record breaking bull.
TSX is down 8.61% compared to a year ago. It's still down 2.59% compared to 5 years ago. (Excluding dividend) IMHO, many stocks are still undervalued in historical sense within the past 10 years.
The bond yield is trending up but not high enough to justify a big allocation to bond. My bond allocation is only 2-3% of the portfolio.
Anyone in accumulation stage should take advantage of market down turn rather than trying to get away from it. To do that, it's important to keep your powder dry.
TSX is down 8.61% compared to a year ago. It's still down 2.59% compared to 5 years ago. (Excluding dividend) IMHO, many stocks are still undervalued in historical sense within the past 10 years.
The bond yield is trending up but not high enough to justify a big allocation to bond. My bond allocation is only 2-3% of the portfolio.
Anyone in accumulation stage should take advantage of market down turn rather than trying to get away from it. To do that, it's important to keep your powder dry.
"Market participants using any time frame have a lot to be happy about! RRSP investors- Stock pickers- Momentum traders- etc.
Those who are not stubborn were able to get back involved when we closed back above the 10day moving average on March 9th.
We are near 1404-1407 resistance zone- (a nice spot to take off some long exposure as there are many extended stocks)
The More macro area of resistance is 1420-1440
Support 1396-1398 then 1388 area
Big Support is 1376-1378 .
ENJOY THE WEEKEND—especially if you celebrate St. Patrick’s day. Go find some trouble!
"
Watch out tonight when you drive , Cops may stop you at any time.
Those who are not stubborn were able to get back involved when we closed back above the 10day moving average on March 9th.
We are near 1404-1407 resistance zone- (a nice spot to take off some long exposure as there are many extended stocks)
The More macro area of resistance is 1420-1440
Support 1396-1398 then 1388 area
Big Support is 1376-1378 .
ENJOY THE WEEKEND—especially if you celebrate St. Patrick’s day. Go find some trouble!
"Watch out tonight when you drive , Cops may stop you at any time.
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
Any examples of deeply undervalued stocks ?
One interesting company is BAC. This may be the most undervalued large company in the market ...
- 注册
- 2002-10-02
- 消息
- 9,389
- 荣誉分数
- 257
- 声望点数
- 193
“I did sell a lot of long position to control the overall size” .
--- YOU TRADED BASED ON YOU GUESS OR HOPE OR WISH!!
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
Did you find the chance to buy back ?
Technical analysis is purely waste of time. Of course, if it is taken a type of entertainment, then it is a different story.
It is simply weird that so many people can look at same chart and make money. What does that make sense ? Any enlightening insights ?
shemozhuben
新手上路
- 注册
- 2010-07-31
- 消息
- 786
- 荣誉分数
- 31
- 声望点数
- 0
Nothing is deeply undervalued at curent level except some stocks with special situation.
I think Canadian banks are currently undervalued by roughly ~20%.
Be careful of value trap.Its earning still too unstable/unpredictable. I don't like American banks.
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
- 消息
- 1,111
- 荣誉分数
- 15
- 声望点数
- 0
Not sure how deep you studied Canadian banks. If you open up an annual report of any Canadian big six banks, search for Notional and see the derivative exposures. You may start with the smallest one, National Bank and then also check out Royal.
Then, you can use the same method to check out JPM and BAC.
You will find they are in same category in terms of derivative exposure.
At same time, you can open up USB and WFC and see what their exposure is.
Of course, if you are comfortable with derivative exposures, then you are really really really a guru analyst....
shemozhuben
新手上路
- 注册
- 2010-07-31
- 消息
- 786
- 荣誉分数
- 31
- 声望点数
- 0
There're all sorts of risk with investing.
I just look at their earnings. It's all about earnings.
Finantial is part of my sector allocation and I prefer to invest in Canadian banks than US banks. Canadian banks have long history of uninterrupted dividend. I trust the management's ability to continue to perform.
I just look at their earnings. It's all about earnings.
Finantial is part of my sector allocation and I prefer to invest in Canadian banks than US banks. Canadian banks have long history of uninterrupted dividend. I trust the management's ability to continue to perform.
