大盘见顶了吗?

[闲得慌]

Did you find the chance to buy back ?

Technical analysis is purely waste of time. Of course, if it is taken a type of entertainment, then it is a different story.

It is simply weird that so many people can look at same chart and make money. What does that make sense ? Any enlightening insights ?

No, I am waiting for a new bottom

 

[nepean_01]

The beat goes on according to Sonny and Cher as well
as to the bulls who are long this market. This bull run
really started at the bottom of the October 4th low when
the SP-500 was at 1,074 and now we closed at 1,409 for
over a 31% run. Let’s start using the analogy that we
must “walk on the rice paper carefully Grasshopper”
when it comes to riding this bull market. More upside is
likely but don’t assume this is a stairway to heaven. This
bull run will end, it is just a matter of when.
Another possible catalyst was the weekend news that
China’s soon to be premier Li Keqiang is using terms
like “changing its economic model . . . . reforms . . . . we
will make policies more targeted, flexible and forwardlooking
to maintain relatively fast economic growth . . .”

The Dow30 had virtually no change while the Nasdaq
Composite was up 0.75%, the S&P 500 was up 0.40% and
the Russell 2000 was up 0.91%. The CBOE Volatility index which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place was
up 4.2%.
In economic news, the NAHB Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 28 which was less than the 31 that was
expected. This weighed heavily on home builder stocks. KBH, KB Home was down 6.8%, TOL, Toll Brothers was down
1.2%, and PHM, Pulte Home was down 1.4%.
ADBE, Adobe reported weaker than expected earnings during after market hours on Monday and shares dropped nearly
5%.
In merger and acquisition news (M&A's) UPS, UPS was up 3.4% Monday after TNT Express accepted their $6.9 billion
takeover offer.
In other news:
AAPL, Apple was up 2.6% Monday and closed at an all time high over $600 after announcing a dividend of $2.65 per share
as well as a $10 billion stock repurchase program.

 

[闲得慌]

Did you find the chance to buy back ?

Technical analysis is purely waste of time. Of course, if it is taken a type of entertainment, then it is a different story.

It is simply weird that so many people can look at same chart and make money. What does that make sense ? Any enlightening insights ?

As I said before, the chart is result. You act based on your prediction or lose.

 

[lazycatcat]

As I said before, the chart is result. You act based on your prediction or lose.

So you look at past in order to foresee the future ?

 

[lazycatcat]

The beat goes on according to Sonny and Cher as well
as to the bulls who are long this market. This bull run
really started at the bottom of the October 4th low when
the SP-500 was at 1,074 and now we closed at 1,409 for
over a 31% run. Let’s start using the analogy that we
must “walk on the rice paper carefully Grasshopper”
when it comes to riding this bull market. More upside is
likely but don’t assume this is a stairway to heaven. This
bull run will end, it is just a matter of when.
Another possible catalyst was the weekend news that
China’s soon to be premier Li Keqiang is using terms
like “changing its economic model . . . . reforms . . . . we
will make policies more targeted, flexible and forwardlooking
to maintain relatively fast economic growth . . .”

The Dow30 had virtually no change while the Nasdaq
Composite was up 0.75%, the S&P 500 was up 0.40% and
the Russell 2000 was up 0.91%. The CBOE Volatility index which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place was
up 4.2%.
In economic news, the NAHB Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 28 which was less than the 31 that was
expected. This weighed heavily on home builder stocks. KBH, KB Home was down 6.8%, TOL, Toll Brothers was down
1.2%, and PHM, Pulte Home was down 1.4%.
ADBE, Adobe reported weaker than expected earnings during after market hours on Monday and shares dropped nearly
5%.
In merger and acquisition news (M&A's) UPS, UPS was up 3.4% Monday after TNT Express accepted their $6.9 billion
takeover offer.
In other news:
AAPL, Apple was up 2.6% Monday and closed at an all time high over $600 after announcing a dividend of $2.65 per share
as well as a $10 billion stock repurchase program.

In long-term, stock market is ALWAYS a bull market. Ever since fiat money is adopted, chronic inflation is inevitable. The direction is upward and therefore the stock market, which is denominated in fiat money.

This is the cynical reason. The more realistic reason is human creativity. When the stock market represent innovation that may turn sand into iPad, that is value creation. Value here means people's willingness to give up their time and effort for something.

One more reason is the so called Fed put. Fed proved once again that it would save the fiat money system no matter the cost. This means people don't have to be afraid of severe consequences. And this means next crisis will be bigger. Again, Fed will step in. This hidden guarantee is also the reason for the long-term bull in stock market.

The key question is what is long-term ...

 

[uglyducking]

And how long the long term would be before the next crisis?

 

[闲得慌]

So you look at past in order to foresee the future ?

Yes, look at past, feel the sentiment, foresee the future.

 

[shemozhuben]

There's economic crisis every 5 to 7 years. The next one maybe happen in 2015? just kidding.

If one can accurately predict the market bottom and top every time, fully engage
resources at the bottom, and get out at the top, one can double evey 5 to 7 years. But think about it, that's just annual return of 10 to 14 %.

What if you miss the bottom? What if you are afraid to fully invest at the bottom? What if you miss the top and it continues to go up? What about trading fees? Too many variables to achieve 10- 14% / year.

By investing without jumping in and out of the market, the TSX returned 10% annually over the past 40 years. If you invest in quality companies, buy low and hold for long term, it should perform better than the TSX because The market includes garbage and gold and because the market doesn't buy itself during the low period.

Timing the market just provide an phychological comfort knowing your capital is not fluctuating but market fluctuation is just other people's opinion anyway or even opinion of machines thanks to algorithmic trading. Just for example, they can say the real estate I am holding is worth only 50% but I am still collecting the same rent every month or I am living at the same place providing me the same comfort of living.

Yes
maybe the economic is not at full capicity but it's no where close to what the market is thinking. The market may drop 50% but 90% of people still have a job. During bear market, the market drop is always servere than the reality. The efficient market theory is BS.

 

[闲得慌]

There's economic crisis every 5 to 7 years. The next one maybe happen in 2015? just kidding.

If one can accurately predict the market bottom and top every time, fully engage
resources at the bottom, and get out at the top, one can double evey 5 to 7 years. But think about it, that's just annual return of 10 to 14 %.

。。。

.

不想跟你争论，但是又不想有人让你误导。下图是过去12年TSX的走势：

 

[nepean_01]

continue to trend up but reduce your long positions -- 谨慎做多

No follow through today on US stocks after a big move
up yesterday on Bernanke’s comments. Today Bernanke
threw cold water on the market by cautioning that high
gas prices could lead to rising inflation and a slowdown
on growth. Other comments he added was the 8.3%
unemployment rate is too high and is “far too early to
declare factory” on economic recovery.

Investors made the assumption that Bernanke’s
comments on Monday opened the door for another
round of easing/stimulus but some investors might be
feeling like it’s the morning after syndrome. There was
clarification today that 40% of the unemployed have
been out of work for more than 6 months so these
comments cooled the market from moving higher for the
time being.
My guess is stocks will continue to trend up but the
easing pickings of low hanging fruit have been already
picked so don’t be leveraged your account in any one
direction or sector. As stock prices move up, reduce
your long positions.
The Dow30 was down 0.33%, Nasdaq Composite had
virtually no change, the S&P 500 was down 0.28% and the
Russell 2000 was down 0.60%. The CBOE Volatility Index
which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place
was up 8.7%.

In economic news, the Case-Shiller 20 City Index was down 0.8% which was better than the 3.8% drop that was expected.
Consumer Confidence dropped to 70.2 which was in line with expectations.
LEN, Lennar reported earnings that exceeded expectations and shares were up 4.6% at the close on Tuesday. WAG,Walgreen was up 1.2% after announcing better than expected earnings.

BBY, Bestbuy, and RIMM, Research in Motion are just a couple of the more notable companies scheduled to release earnings this week.

Financial stocks pulled back Tuesday after Monday's gains. GS, Goldman Sachs was down 1.3%, MS, Morgan Stanley
was down 2.1%, USB, US Bancorp was down 1.3%, WFC, Wells Fargo was down 1.1%, and C, Citigroup was down 1.7%
at the close.

 

[lazycatcat]

Yes, look at past, feel the sentiment, foresee the future.

When people drive, people normally look at the wind shields of the front window. I haven't come across anyone that drives by staring at back window while driving forward.

So, there must be something special with chart investing...

 

[lazycatcat]

No follow through today on US stocks after a big move
up yesterday on Bernanke’s comments. Today Bernanke
threw cold water on the market by cautioning that high
gas prices could lead to rising inflation and a slowdown
on growth. Other comments he added was the 8.3%
unemployment rate is too high and is “far too early to
declare factory” on economic recovery.

Investors made the assumption that Bernanke’s
comments on Monday opened the door for another
round of easing/stimulus but some investors might be
feeling like it’s the morning after syndrome. There was
clarification today that 40% of the unemployed have
been out of work for more than 6 months so these
comments cooled the market from moving higher for the
time being.
My guess is stocks will continue to trend up but the
easing pickings of low hanging fruit have been already
picked so don’t be leveraged your account in any one
direction or sector. As stock prices move up, reduce
your long positions.
The Dow30 was down 0.33%, Nasdaq Composite had
virtually no change, the S&P 500 was down 0.28% and the
Russell 2000 was down 0.60%. The CBOE Volatility Index
which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place
was up 8.7%.

In economic news, the Case-Shiller 20 City Index was down 0.8% which was better than the 3.8% drop that was expected.
Consumer Confidence dropped to 70.2 which was in line with expectations.
LEN, Lennar reported earnings that exceeded expectations and shares were up 4.6% at the close on Tuesday. WAG,Walgreen was up 1.2% after announcing better than expected earnings.

BBY, Bestbuy, and RIMM, Research in Motion are just a couple of the more notable companies scheduled to release earnings this week.

Financial stocks pulled back Tuesday after Monday's gains. GS, Goldman Sachs was down 1.3%, MS, Morgan Stanley
was down 2.1%, USB, US Bancorp was down 1.3%, WFC, Wells Fargo was down 1.1%, and C, Citigroup was down 1.7%
at the close.

I guess when one bikes, one needs to look up and forward rather than look downward and mine each step...

There is an easy measure of US banks like USB and WFC. A quick look at their financials shall convince the reader that per share earning at $3.00 and $3.60 shall be achievable near-term.

A 40% to 50% dividend payout is reasonable for commercial banks if well capitalized. At $1.50 per share dividend, a 5% dividend ratio shall give share price at $30 and 4% dividend ratio shall give price at $40.

This doesn't include any potential growth etc...

Going forward, there might be a very likely scenario that previously regarded toxic mortgages start to become assets. It won't be strange to see junkiest banks (yet sustainable) rise again from dust ... BAC may be a primary example (with $12 per share tangible book value)...

 

[lazycatcat]

There is an interesting workout situation with KMI and EP. KMI and EP has agreed to a merge deal with following details:

1. Each share of EP gets $14.65 in cash
2. 0.4187 KMI shares
3. 0.64 KMI warrants at strike price of $40 with 5-year term

KMI is selling around $39 and therefore each share of EP shall be worth $30.97 without counting the warrant. EP is selling at around $29.80.

What is interesting is the CEO of KMI. He was COO of Enron and left a few years before Enron implosion. A very interesting figure ... that knows the pipeline business well....

 

[nepean_01]

多头基本都清了。

大盘有想跳水的冲动! 小心了。

 

[lazycatcat]

大盘有想跳水的冲动! 小心了。

Flashing red, red, red ....