中美贸易战:13轮磋商无果 改成“阶段性”方式继续磋;特朗普和刘鹤于1月15日在白宫签署第一阶段经贸协议 (附中英文版本)

阿土仔

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本来倒是可以从中获取点儿的,不过到现在是毛也没捞着,还惹一身骚
只能怪土豆不聪明,应该给老床来个阳奉阴违 ......:D
 

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中国那边尚没任何动静....


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upload_2019-12-12_21-17-16.png
 

lindamy

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好像现在只是川普批准了美国的谈判计划,离协议还有距离。
 

向问天

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好像现在只是川普批准了美国的谈判计划,离协议还有距离。

哪里有傻到把谈判计划向全世界公开的事?
 

小 篆

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只能怪土豆不聪明,应该给老床来个阳奉阴违 ......:D
那碗粥的事情,发生了也就发生了,被下绊子也好,无辜受牵连也好,反正无法改变,但土豆政府近期的表现,实在是太弱。
前几天中国恢复进口加拿大猪肉,几个部长忙着报喜表功,好像为挽回中加关系做出了多大成绩一样。其实中国因为受贸易战、非洲猪瘟和环保一刀切硬性取缔大批养猪场的几大因素影响,猪肉供应缺口之大,就算从美加翻倍进口都弥补不了。这种情况下,中国对于恢复从加拿大进口猪肉本来就比加拿大的出口需求急切得多。土豆政府不利用这个形势好好谈谈被抓的“间谍”案子不说,连附带恢复油菜籽出口的条件都没要,就欢天喜地同意出口猪肉了。。。真是恨其不争。
 

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那碗粥的事情,发生了也就发生了,被下绊子也好,无辜受牵连也好,反正无法改变,但土豆政府近期的表现,实在是太弱。
前几天中国恢复进口加拿大猪肉,几个部长忙着报喜表功,好像为挽回中加关系做出了多大成绩一样。其实中国因为受贸易战、非洲猪瘟和环保一刀切硬性取缔大批养猪场的几大因素影响,猪肉供应缺口之大,就算从美加翻倍进口都弥补不了。这种情况下,中国对于恢复从加拿大进口猪肉本来就比加拿大的出口需求急切得多。土豆政府不利用这个形势好好谈谈被抓的“间谍”案子不说,连附带恢复油菜籽出口的条件都没要,就欢天喜地同意出口猪肉了。。。真是恨其不争。
你能指望这么个二货出什么菜?:D
 

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美议员批特朗普全面投降

但是,对于特朗普宣布的中美协议,美国国内有人感到不满意。美国参议院少数党领袖舒默(Chuck Schumer)13日在推特上说,特朗普因为中国购买一些大豆的临时且不可靠的承诺出卖了自己的原则。这再一次证明,不能指望特朗普总统为美国工人和企业做正确的事情。

美国参议员墨菲(Chris Murphy)在推特上说,正如预测的那样,协议似乎是一场全面投降。贸易战让美国失去了30万个工作岗位,作为交换,在这个“协议”中,中国对结构性改革的承诺几乎为零。 他还说,协议是一场灾难。

美国会重量级议员鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)一天前也在推特上说,白宫应该考虑这样一种风险,即与中国达成短期协议可能导致美国失去在最重要问题上与中方达成更广泛协议所需的关税筹码,这些问题包括中国政府对国内企业的补贴、强制技术转让以及阻止美国企业进入关键行业。
http://news.dwnews.com/global/news/2019-12-13/60160842.html
 

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中美就第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致——五部门有关负责人介绍中美经贸磋商有关进展
2019-12-14 03:59:25 来源: 新华网

  新华社北京12月13日电 题:中美就第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致——五部门有关负责人介绍中美经贸磋商有关进展

  新华社记者

  中方关于中美第一阶段经贸协议的声明13日晚对外发布。声明说,经过中美两国经贸团队的共同努力,双方在平等和相互尊重原则的基础上,已就中美第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致。

  当晚国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会,国新办副主任郭卫民主持,国家发展和改革委员会副主任宁吉喆,中央财经委员会办公室副主任、财政部副部长廖岷,外交部副部长郑泽光,农业农村部副部长韩俊,商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文介绍了中美经贸磋商有关进展情况。

  王受文首先发布了中方关于中美第一阶段经贸协议的声明,五部门负责人随后回答了中外媒体提问。

  在回答中央广播电视总台央视记者关于中美双方扩大贸易合作对两国有何积极意义、是否会影响中国和其他贸易伙伴关系的提问时,宁吉喆说,近期中美两国就扩大贸易合作问题进行了深入沟通。双方都认识到,扩大中美贸易合作有利于两国资源优化配置和经济结构调整。中美贸易发展到今天规模,源于中美经济有很强的互补性。而从两国超大规模经济和市场看,中美贸易还有很大潜力。从满足中国人民不断增长的消费需求和推动经济高质量发展出发,中国欢迎优质、有竞争力的美国产品和服务进入中国市场。

  扩大中美贸易合作对美国同样具有积极意义。中国是美国农产品第二大出口市场,是美国大豆第一大出口目的地、棉花第二大出口目的地,扩大中美能源领域合作也是美国的现实选择。

  需要强调的是,扩大贸易合作必须基于市场化原则和WTO规则,美方需要保障供给能力、提高产品质量和价格竞争力、满足中国相关监管要求。中美两国都是市场经济国家,只要美国的产品和服务适销对路,能满足中国老百姓需求,扩大自美进口是我们乐意看到的。同时,中国国内市场庞大,对质优价廉的商品和服务需求不断增加,欢迎各国企业在中国市场上平等竞争,扩大中美贸易合作不会影响其他贸易伙伴的利益。

  在回答路透社记者关于第一阶段协议是否包含中国明年自美进口500亿美元农产品、双方是否相互取消50%的现有加征关税等问题时,廖岷说,取消关税是中方在经贸磋商中的核心关切,双方就此问题达成了一致。随着双方达成第一阶段协议,美方已经承诺将取消部分对华拟加征和已加征的关税,并且会加大对中国输美产品关税豁免的力度,推动加征关税的趋势从上升转向下降。中方希望美方能够切实履行承诺,中方也将相应考虑不实施原计划在12月15日生效的拟对美方进口产品加征关税措施。这是双方在第一阶段协议中就关税问题达成的共识。

  宁吉喆说,中国将增加采购优质和具有市场竞争力的美国农产品,但目前第一阶段协议文本正在履行审核程序,涉及协议具体内容和数据今后再发布。

  在回答经济日报记者关于中国自美进口农产品若大幅增加会否对国内产业带来冲击问题时,韩俊说,这次中美双方达成的第一阶段经贸协议将是一个平等互利、合作共赢的协议。协议的实施,将有利于扩大中国农产品对美国的出口。谈判过程中,中方始终坚持自身合理诉求,经过反复磋商,美方近期先后公布了允许中国自产熟制禽肉、鲶鱼产品输美的最终规则,中国成为继加拿大、墨西哥、智利等国之后能向美国出口自产原料熟制禽肉的国家,也是目前全世界可向美国出口鲶鱼的三个国家之一。

  此外,美方还同意公布中国的香梨、柑橘、鲜枣输美监管通报程序,允许这些产品向美国出口,并在协议中就尽快解除中国输美水产品自动扣留等作出了积极承诺。这其中一些谈了十多年的问题终于有了实质性突破,这些成果将会对我国相关产品的输美产生积极影响,有助于我国农业行业扩大对美国的出口,为我国农民和产业界争取到实实在在的利益。

  实施这个协议,会大幅增加我国自美进口农产品。中国现在已是全球最大的农产品进口国。随着人民生活水平的提高,我国对优质农产品的需求强劲,进口会进一步扩大。中美同为农业大国,两国农业互补性非常强,是天然的农业合作伙伴,具有广阔的合作空间。在经贸摩擦之前的正常年份,中国自美农产品进口一直稳定在很高规模上。受加征关税影响,2018年中国自美农产品进口减少到162.3亿美元,同比下降了32.7%。今年1至10月份,中国自美农产品进口达到104亿美元,同比下降了30.8%。协议的达成和实施,将会解决两国在农产品和食品贸易方面存在的一些突出问题,消除很多分歧,也会为解决两国长期关切奠定很好基础。

  协议实施以后,我国大幅度增加自美国农产品进口,这有利于填补我国国内农产品供求缺口。我国85%左右的大豆要靠进口,一年大豆进口量在9000万吨左右。今后我国还会从美国扩大进口一些当前国内市场急需的农产品,比如猪肉、禽肉等,这些产品的进口不会对我们的国内农业产生冲击。协议实施以后,我们会从美国进口一部分小麦、玉米、大米,数量严格控制在关税配额范围之内。中国自国际市场进口小麦、玉米和大米,主要还是适度调节国内余缺。

  总之,我们会坚守谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全,把饭碗牢牢地端在自己手里,而且要装自己的粮食,要守住国家粮食安全的底线。第一阶段协议中食品和农产品章节充分贯彻了两国元首在阿根廷和大阪会晤达成的重要共识,体现了平等互利、合作共赢原则。协议的实施,将进一步深化中美农业合作,强化农业在双边关系中的重要支柱作用。

  在回答彭博新闻社记者关于中方取消相应加征关税的计划以及协议签署时间和地点等问题时,廖岷说,这是市场非常关心的一个问题。关于关税的内容,美方已经承诺,一是取消部分对华拟加征和已加征的关税;二是加大对中国输美产品的关税豁免力度。中方也会相应作出一些安排,双方对此已达成一致。

  关于协议的签署,目前双方还需要完成各自的法律审核、翻译核对等一些必要程序,然后再商定时间、地点和形式来签署这份协议。目前双方工作层正在就此协商,中方也非常愿意听取美方的意见。如果有进一步的消息,我相信商务部、外交部会及时发布。

  在回答新华社记者关于双方在知识产权领域取得哪些共识和具体内容问题时,王受文说,中美双方就加强知识产权保护进行了深入讨论,并在几个方面达成共识,包括商业秘密保护、与药品相关的知识产权问题、专利有效期延长、地理标志、打击电子商务平台上存在的盗版和假冒、打击盗版和假冒产品的生产和出口、打击商标恶意注册,以及加强知识产权司法执行和程序。

  我想强调的是,双方相向而行所达成的上述共识,符合中方关于加强知识产权保护的改革方向,有利于保护创新,有利于国外知识产权更多地进入中国,符合推动经济高质量发展的需要。实际上,长期以来,中国政府一直高度重视知识产权保护,我们的知识产权保护水平也在不断提高,这是我们改革的需要,也是中国经济自身发展的需要。

  下一步,中方将继续按照既定的步伐和节奏,稳步改革完善知识产权保护体系,不断强化知识产权保护水平。与此同时,落实双方在这方面达成的共识。

  在回答中国日报记者关于中方对协议总体印象和评价的问题时,廖岷说,这份协议是中美双方在平等和相互尊重原则基础上达成的,历时22个月。对于这份协议和共识,中方有以下几点看法:

  第一,这份协议符合中美两国人民和世界人民的利益。我们与美方达成这份协议的初心,是从维护中美两国人民和世界人民根本利益的大局出发。我们相信,这份协议将对全球经贸、投资和金融市场产生积极的影响。

  第二,这份协议总体上符合中国深化改革的大方向,也符合中国自身推动经济高质量发展的内在需求。同时,协议的落实既有助于更好地维护所有在华中外资企业的合法权益,也有利于更好地保护中方企业和投资者在美经贸活动中的合法权益。

  第三,随着中国国内市场潜力的不断挖掘和市场容量的不断扩大,在华企业,包括国企、民企和外资企业,会按照世贸组织规则,遵循市场化、商业化原则,来扩大中美双边贸易合作,这可以让中国成千上万的消费者和生产者享受不同特色的产品和服务,更好地满足中国人民日益增长的美好生活需要。

  第四,协议的签署以及未来的落实,将有利于促进中美两国的经贸合作,管控和解决经贸分歧,促进中美经贸关系稳定发展。中方也愿意和美方一道,为双边经贸关系的发展多做有益的、积极的事情。

  协议好不好,这得由企业说了算,得由市场说了算。这两天国内外资本市场的积极反应已经给出了清晰的回答。金融市场的反应是最灵敏的。我相信,这种积极的、正面的效果还会逐步在更多的经济、经贸、金融等领域不断显现,这也符合我们签署这份协议的初衷。

  在回答美国有线电视新闻网记者关于协议文本的一些具体内容问题时,廖岷说,双方对于协议中的一些共识都会分别作一些发布。当务之急是把第一阶段协议签下来、落实好,发挥好协议的三个作用:一是促进双边经贸合作;二是增进中美两国和全球人民的福祉;三是稳定全球市场的预期。有关后续磋商什么时候开始、什么时候进行,都有待双方工作层继续商量。

  在回答凤凰卫视记者关于美方承诺取消关税有无具体时间表等问题时,郑泽光说,协议的达成,有利于中国,有利于美国,有利于世界。关于中美关系,我们的立场是一贯的、明确的。中方致力于同美方一道努力,实现不冲突不对抗,相互尊重、合作共赢。同时,我们坚定捍卫国家主权、安全、发展利益。

  经过建交40年的发展,中美利益深度交融,需要合作应对的全球性挑战越来越多,这也包括全球经济、金融的稳定和发展。另一方面,中美之间也存在一些必须重视和妥善处理的深层次问题。对于美方的错误言行,中方已经并将继续表明我们的严正立场,作出必要、坚决回应。

  40年中美关系给予人们最大的启示是:中美合则两利、斗则俱伤,合作是唯一正确的选择;相互尊重、求同存异才是中美两国的相处之道。过去一年多两国经贸磋商的历程也充分说明了这个道理。

  我们希望美方同中方相向而行,按照两国元首达成的重要共识,在相互尊重的基础上管控分歧,在互惠互利的基础上拓展各领域合作,共同推进以协调、合作、稳定为基调的中美关系。

  在回答日本经济新闻记者关于中方除农产品外还会扩大哪些美国产品进口规模问题时,宁吉喆说,由于中美经济具有很强的互补性,两国在很多领域有扩大贸易合作的潜力。除农产品外,按照市场化原则和WTO规则,中美双方将共同努力,帮助和促进中国企业作为市场主体,按照需要,在能源、制成品、服务等领域扩大自美进口的规模。

  这场发布会于13日23时举行,持续约40分钟。
 

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中方关于中美第一阶段经贸协议的声明
2019-12-13 23:07:10 来源: 新华网

  新华社北京12月13日电 经过中美两国经贸团队的共同努力,双方在平等和相互尊重原则的基础上,已就中美第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致。协议文本包括序言、知识产权、技术转让、食品和农产品、金融服务、汇率和透明度、扩大贸易、双边评估和争端解决、最终条款九个章节。同时,双方达成一致,美方将履行分阶段取消对华产品加征关税的相关承诺,实现加征关税由升到降的转变。

  中方认为,中美两国作为全球最大经济体,处理两国经贸关系必须从大局出发,达成经贸协议有利于中美两国人民和世界人民的根本利益,将在经贸、投资、金融市场等方面产生积极效应。本协议总体上符合中国深化改革开放的大方向,以及自身推动经济高质量发展的内在需要。协议相关内容的落实,将有助于强化知识产权保护,改善营商环境,扩大市场准入,更好维护包括外国企业在内的各类企业在华合法权益,也有利于保护中方企业在对美经贸活动中的合法权益。随着中国国内市场的扩大,中方企业按照世贸组织规则和市场化、商业化原则,增加从包括美国在内的各国进口优质、有竞争力的产品和服务,有助于顺应国内消费升级的趋势,满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要。本协议有利于中美两国加强经贸领域的合作,有效管控和解决经贸领域的分歧,促进中美经贸关系稳定发展。在当前全球经济面临下行压力的背景下,本协议有利于增强全球市场信心,稳定市场预期,为正常的经贸和投资活动创造良好环境。

  双方约定,下一步双方将各自尽快完成法律审核、翻译校对等必要的程序,并就正式签署协议的具体安排进行协商。

  协议签署后,希望双方能够遵守协议约定,努力落实好第一阶段协议相关内容,多做有利于双边经贸关系发展和全球经济金融稳定的事情,维护世界和平与繁荣。
 

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国务院关税税则委员会关于暂不实施对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税措施的公告
2019-12-15 12:20:48 来源: 新华网

  新华社北京12月15日电 国务院关税税则委员会15日发布关于暂不实施对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税措施的公告,全文如下:

  为落实中美双方近日关于经贸问题的磋商结果,根据《中华人民共和国海关法》《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》《中华人民共和国进出口关税条例》等法律法规和国际法基本原则,国务院关税税则委员会决定,暂不实施对原产于美国的部分进口商品的加征关税措施。有关事项如下:

  一、自2019年12月15日12时01分起,对《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的部分进口商品(第三批)加征关税的公告》(税委会公告〔2019〕4号)附件2商品暂不实施税委会公告〔2019〕4号所规定的加征关税措施。即:对税委会公告〔2019〕4号附件2第一部分所列749个税目商品、第二部分所列163个税目商品,暂不征收税委会公告〔2019〕4号所加征10%的关税;对附件2第三部分所列634个税目商品、第四部分所列1815个税目商品,暂不征收税委会公告〔2019〕4号所加征5%的关税。实施时间另行通知。

  二、自2019年12月15日12时01分起,暂不实施《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的汽车及零部件恢复加征关税的公告》(税委会公告〔2019〕5号)。即:自2019年12月15日12时01分起,对《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的汽车及零部件暂停加征关税的公告》(税委会公告〔2018〕10号)附件1所列28个税目商品,继续暂停征收《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国500亿美元进口商品加征关税的公告》(税委会公告〔2018〕5号)所加征25%的关税;对税委会公告〔2018〕10号附件2所列116个税目商品,继续暂停征收《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国约160亿美元进口商品加征关税的公告》(税委会公告〔2018〕7号)所加征25%的关税;对税委会公告〔2018〕10号附件3所列67个税目商品,继续暂停征收《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国约600亿美元进口商品实施加征关税的公告》(税委会公告〔2018〕8号)所加征5%的关税。实施时间另行通知。
 

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A so-called Phase 1 trade deal between the U.S. and China ensures the dispute between the two countries won't escalate — at least for now.

While the agreement addresses some of their outstanding issues — specifically China agreeing to buy more American agricultural products — what's perhaps even more significant are the thorny issues that remain unresolved.

Some analysts warn that any celebrations declaring it a "historic breakthrough" may be premature.

Stock markets have jumped every time such progress has been rumoured — and it's been rumoured off and on for months now.

"It never ceases to amaze me how investors can continue to react to the same piece of news," David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff wealth management in Toronto, said in a note to clients.

Many of the details of the partial deal haven't been released, but here's a look at what we know so far.

What is in the deal
The global economy has been held back as the dispute between the U.S. and China has ebbed and flowed since 2018. Any step away from the brink is good for everyone.

Many were worried about the impact of the next round of tariffs, which would have hit American consumers just ahead of Christmas.

The now-cancelled tariffs would have targeted Chinese-made goods including smartphones, clothing and toys.


The U.S.-China deal reduces some tariffs on goods. In exchange, China has agreed to buy more U.S. agricultural products. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO, says the partial deal means those new tariffs are off the table.

But more surprising, he says, the agreement will cut existing tariffs on $360 billion in Chinese imports. It will roll back the tariff rate imposed in September on items ranging from televisions to bed linens.

"The rollbacks, if realized, could revive business sentiment and add a couple of tenths to U.S. GDP growth next year," Guatieri said in a note to clients. "At the very least, the de-escalation in trade tensions, if sustained, would shift the economic risks to the upside."

In return for the elimination of tariffs, China has promised to buy large quantities of U.S. soybeans, poultry and other agricultural products.


A round of now-cancelled tariffs were set to kick in this weekend and would have hit U.S. shoppers right before Christmas. (Katherine Holland/CBC)

U.S. President Donald Trump says the Chinese have agreed to buy $50 billion worth.

"And I say, affectionately, the farmers are going to have to go out and buy much larger tractors, because it means a lot of business, a tremendous amount of business," Trump told reporters.

What's not in the deal
Markets went up Friday on the news of the agreement. But they did the same thing last week and last month when negotiators said a deal was coming.

Rosenberg isn't sure investors fully understand just how limited this agreement is.

The core of the U.S.-China dispute is over what the Americans consider unfair subsidies for Chinese industries and the need for stiffer protections for intellectual property and against currency manipulation.

The Phase 1 deal addresses none of those issues.

In a note to clients, Rosenberg says Phase 1 deals with a "tiny portion of issues," while the much more important ones, such as subsidies and technology transfers, "have been left for another date."

That skepticism didn't keep Trump from hailing the agreement as a "phenomenal deal."

"This is a very large deal," he told reporters at the White House. "The China deal. It covers tremendous manufacturing, farming, a lot of rules, regulations, a lot of things are covered. It's a Phase 1 deal, but a lot of big things are covered."

But even Trump admits some of the biggest blocks of tariffs remain in place.

"The tariffs will largely remain at 25 per cent on $250 billion," he said. "And we'll use them for future negotiations on the Phase 2 deal, because China would like to see the tariffs off."

The upside for global trade tensions
The partial deal is Trump's second trade victory of the week. On Tuesday, Canadian, American and Mexican negotiators finally agreed to a revised deal to replace NAFTA.

And in the U.K. election this week, the Conservatives secured a majority government, which should dramatically reduce the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

The possibility of Britain leaving the E.U. without a formal divorce agreement has raised serious concerns and uncertainty about how trade might be affected in Europe.

No one knows exactly how the U.K.'s departure from the EU will proceed, but with the election result, at least some of the uncertainty seems to have been removed.

For the first time in a long time, the news about global trade isn't a total disaster. And that has some analysts optimistic heading into 2020.

While she shares many of the concerns about the bigger issues between the U.S. and China that need addressing, Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management in Toronto, says the Phase 1 deal shows that both sides are willing to make a deal and get this dispute behind them.

"Canadians can breathe a sigh of relief," Donald said. "Global growth looks as though it now has upside potential and the worst geopolitical tensions are behind us."

And that, she says, is good news for everyone.

"It not only helps our trade sector and our manufacturing sector, but it will support markets that will translate into better equity returns for Canadians as well."
 

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US claims that China will purchase $40bn of American agricultural goods were greeted with scepticism over the feasibility of a deal that would surpass all previous shipments by at least $10bn.

US officials said Beijing had committed to the imports as part of a preliminary trade agreement reached Friday that followed months of negotiations and escalating tariffs between the two trading partners.

If realised, the pledge could prop up rural economies suffering from a glut of grain. The agreement “provides relief after more than a year of market uncertainty,” said Jim Sutter, chief executive of the US Soybean Export Council.

There were questions about the practicality of the agreement, however. Joseph Glauber, a former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture, said silence on China’s commitments by individual commodity could prove confusing to farmers deciding what to plant. “The details still remain very obscure,” he said.

Annual US farm exports to China had exceeded $20bn until 2018, when they dropped to $13.4bn mainly because of retaliatory duties on soyabeans and pork.

Robert Lighthizer, US trade representative, said China had agreed to increase agricultural purchases by $16bn per year above the $24bn in sales recorded in 2017, bringing the annual total to at least $40bn in 2020 and 2021. The purchases would be part of a broader commitment to import more US manufactured goods, energy commodities and services.

Ning Jizhe, vice-head of China’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, confirmed the country would increase purchases of US agricultural products “that are competitive in the market,” though he said specific numbers would be released at a later date.

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Agricultural markets had a mixed reaction to the news, with soyabean futures closing up 1 per cent at $9.075 a bushel and lean hogs ending 1.2 per cent higher in Chicago, while cotton — an important export to China — fell 0.6 per cent to 66.8 cents a pound.

Reaching $40bn in sales could prove a challenge in current market conditions. When the US exported a record $29.6bn in agricultural goods to China in 2013, the soyabean price was more than $14 a bushel. When prices are lower, volumes need to be higher to boost overall sales.

“To get to $40bn seems like a pretty big number unless we have a major change in commodity prices between now and 2021,” said Stephen Nicholson, vice-president of grains and oilseeds at Rabobank in St Louis.

Soyabeans were historically the largest US agricultural export to China, totalling about 32m tonnes in 2017. If China were to increase purchases by two-thirds as implied by the proposed agreement, volumes could rise to about 53m tonnes.

This year’s US soyabean crop was 97m tonnes, of which 61m tonnes will be used by the domestic oilseed crushing industry, the USDA forecast this week.

Extra shipments to China could crowd out export customers in Europe and the rest of the world, forcing them to turn to Brazil for supplies in a mirror image of trade flows that occurred during the tariff war, said Richard Feltes, vice-president at RJ O’Brien, a commodities broker.

Mr Glauber said China’s commitments could draw scrutiny from other food exporting countries that may question “whether US products have been guaranteed preferential access” for tariff-rate quotas that are supposed to be applied on a most-favoured nation basis under global trade rules.

China’s demand for soyabeans has declined by millions of tonnes as African swine fever wipes out more than half of its pig herd, the main consumer of soya meal. Its meat imports have correspondingly soared, notably from Australia, Brazil and Europe, as tariffs have made US exports uncompetitive.

In November, China ended a ban on US poultry imposed in 2015 in response to an avian influenza outbreak. Its 35 per cent tariff could disappear under the new pact.

Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council, said Friday’s deal opened an opportunity for $2bn in annual poultry exports to China. “We hope to have a good share of that $40bn,” he said.

US pork exports to China were $1bn in 2017, according to the US Meat Export Federation. An 2018 analysis by Iowa State University published before the swine fever outbreak concluded that China could import $8.9bn more US pork once tariffs were gone.

Gary Blumenthal, president of the consultancy World Perspectives, warned that increasing exports that much risked a squeeze on US supplies. “I don't know how you move that much pork in one year without it showing up in your bacon prices,” he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/1fc771f0-1de4-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4
 

livingeverywhere

一直在被删帖,还被不停的各种限制发言,哈哈,等CFC被联邦调查就好玩了嘛,坐实了中共狗腿的名
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A:10块。

C:5块。

A:10块!

C:6块。

A:10块!

C:9块。

A:成交!

C:不不不,不算数。重来!4块!

A:20块!

C:15块。

A:成交!

C:能不能写成9块成交,不公开?

A、不行。我做不到。

C、老子不谈了!

A、正合我意。拜拜!

C、我同意就按15块成交。

A、此一时彼一时也。50块!

C、30块。

A、49块!

C、48.88块。

A、成交!

C、你不能向外乱讲呀。

A、这个我不保证,我尽量不讲那么细。但你家泄密别怪我。
 

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