精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
- 注册
- 2007-08-17
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- 1,286
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- 40
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DNDN 2QER is out, no ROW partnership
But quit a bit new developments. On top of the lead Morris Plains, New Jersey facility, which I visited in 2006, the company has leased two additional facilities for production of Provenge, one in Atlanta, Georgia, and the other in Orange county, California. These developments are significant to me as the original management estimate was the New Jersey facility at full capacity should be able to meet demand within the first two years of market launch of Provenge. These leases of new facilities indicate to me that management is expecting demand will be strong and hence the production expansion. The rBLA is confirmed to be submitted in 4Q.
How long will my options be dead money? Only Mr. Market can answer me. These are my core holding (less than ideal, actually, but I can't get hold to more cash at the moment) and will wait patiently for the mother of all paydays.
As a side, someone bought 615 2011 Jan. calls at the 85 strike at 0.75 yesterday. That is the most bullish move I have ever seen in DNDN trading.
But quit a bit new developments. On top of the lead Morris Plains, New Jersey facility, which I visited in 2006, the company has leased two additional facilities for production of Provenge, one in Atlanta, Georgia, and the other in Orange county, California. These developments are significant to me as the original management estimate was the New Jersey facility at full capacity should be able to meet demand within the first two years of market launch of Provenge. These leases of new facilities indicate to me that management is expecting demand will be strong and hence the production expansion. The rBLA is confirmed to be submitted in 4Q.
How long will my options be dead money? Only Mr. Market can answer me. These are my core holding (less than ideal, actually, but I can't get hold to more cash at the moment) and will wait patiently for the mother of all paydays.
As a side, someone bought 615 2011 Jan. calls at the 85 strike at 0.75 yesterday. That is the most bullish move I have ever seen in DNDN trading.
A very bad day for longs
The market was off at the gate and continued to go lower as the day progressed. This correction started with the concern over the FOMC meeting, which concludes tomorrow. There is a general worry that almost all economic indicators point to a fall recovery and the FED may start to raise interest rates. My own feeling is that the FED will hold rates unchanged.
Along with the market, all my four holdings were in deep red. Both BAC and MGM had an amazing run lately, giving some back is both inevitable and healthy. If you are a good trader able to sell the top and buy the bottom, you will profit enormously. I am very lousy at trading (although I may make some amazing trades occasionally, e.g., the 200 MGMAC sale yesterday at 0.7 and 0.75 for exactly a doubler after commissions. But that was simply good profit taking after a few-month holding rather than planned trades. The profit taking in MGMAC thus far has cut my costs in what is left in my account to the low 0.2's), just going for the long ride. DNDN and DVAX are different animals altogether, driven mainly by news. My account daily balance may keep going down but I am in for a big fat payday, no worry at all. I want to load more DNDN and DVAX but there is nothing to sell (I only have 200-300 trading BAC and MGM options left) and I can't come up with new cash infusion. So, I will just hold.
Best of lucks to long riders and traders!
p.s. Just finished listening to DNDN's conference call. Two main takeaways: 1) the way the company expands production facilities tells me that management expects a lot more than what they say. Most conservatively, the rBLA will be submitted on December 31 and give the FDA the full 6 months to review, Provenge should be approved no later than June 30, 2010. How long does it take for Provenge to become a blockbuster after launch? The facility expansion tells me that it may reach that status within a couple of years. Given fast- growing biotech valuation around 10x sales, DNDN's market cap should be around 10B within the next couple of years on Provenge alone, leaving alone other news and market overshooting. This translates into a three-digit pps! 2) There is no need to access the capital market prior to positive FDA news per the CFO --- 2 things to interpret: a) no secondary offering and hence no dilution around this price; b) ROW partnership may be forthcoming with upfront cash payment.
Have to wait until September 24 for the Analyst Day to be more clear about their plans going forward.
The market was off at the gate and continued to go lower as the day progressed. This correction started with the concern over the FOMC meeting, which concludes tomorrow. There is a general worry that almost all economic indicators point to a fall recovery and the FED may start to raise interest rates. My own feeling is that the FED will hold rates unchanged.
Along with the market, all my four holdings were in deep red. Both BAC and MGM had an amazing run lately, giving some back is both inevitable and healthy. If you are a good trader able to sell the top and buy the bottom, you will profit enormously. I am very lousy at trading (although I may make some amazing trades occasionally, e.g., the 200 MGMAC sale yesterday at 0.7 and 0.75 for exactly a doubler after commissions. But that was simply good profit taking after a few-month holding rather than planned trades. The profit taking in MGMAC thus far has cut my costs in what is left in my account to the low 0.2's), just going for the long ride. DNDN and DVAX are different animals altogether, driven mainly by news. My account daily balance may keep going down but I am in for a big fat payday, no worry at all. I want to load more DNDN and DVAX but there is nothing to sell (I only have 200-300 trading BAC and MGM options left) and I can't come up with new cash infusion. So, I will just hold.
Best of lucks to long riders and traders!
p.s. Just finished listening to DNDN's conference call. Two main takeaways: 1) the way the company expands production facilities tells me that management expects a lot more than what they say. Most conservatively, the rBLA will be submitted on December 31 and give the FDA the full 6 months to review, Provenge should be approved no later than June 30, 2010. How long does it take for Provenge to become a blockbuster after launch? The facility expansion tells me that it may reach that status within a couple of years. Given fast- growing biotech valuation around 10x sales, DNDN's market cap should be around 10B within the next couple of years on Provenge alone, leaving alone other news and market overshooting. This translates into a three-digit pps! 2) There is no need to access the capital market prior to positive FDA news per the CFO --- 2 things to interpret: a) no secondary offering and hence no dilution around this price; b) ROW partnership may be forthcoming with upfront cash payment.
Have to wait until September 24 for the Analyst Day to be more clear about their plans going forward.
DNDN: get some before September 24 if you can
I re-listened to the 2Q conference calls twice tonight, going over it almost sentence by sentence. I can't be any happier with its developments although the pps has been in a tight range since early May. This quietness will break loose comes September 24, the Analyst Day in New York, as information flows expand exponentially. I expect the pps to make significant upward moves prior to this date.
I have forcefully reframed myself from recommending stocks for a long time. Take DNDN as an exception. I am very strongly recommending this one! Buy early, buy low before the long lineup starts to form!
At yesterday's close, I have 130 ORGAH and 50 ORGAJ. Over the next few weeks (before September 24), proceeds from whatever I sell will go to add DNDN. My goal is to increase both ORGAH and ORGAJ to 200 each. I expect ORGAJ to be ITM before the year is done.
I re-listened to the 2Q conference calls twice tonight, going over it almost sentence by sentence. I can't be any happier with its developments although the pps has been in a tight range since early May. This quietness will break loose comes September 24, the Analyst Day in New York, as information flows expand exponentially. I expect the pps to make significant upward moves prior to this date.
I have forcefully reframed myself from recommending stocks for a long time. Take DNDN as an exception. I am very strongly recommending this one! Buy early, buy low before the long lineup starts to form!
At yesterday's close, I have 130 ORGAH and 50 ORGAJ. Over the next few weeks (before September 24), proceeds from whatever I sell will go to add DNDN. My goal is to increase both ORGAH and ORGAJ to 200 each. I expect ORGAJ to be ITM before the year is done.
DNDN has now taken over BAC as my lead holding
Sold 400 VBAAF to add 500 VBAAH, 50 ORGAJ, and some DVAX. I know it was not the best day to do these today but I just wanted to get them done so as not to keep thinking about them. My eyesight is not set on today, tomorrow, or the day after and I don't attempt to time the market.
These swaps were done according to plans except that I expected to offload MGMAC but the big boys decided to rest MGM. Accordingly, the plans had to be carried out via VBAAF. When the big boys decide to let BAC, DNDN and MGM run, they will run hard. This is not an issue of if but when.
钱到买股票时方恨少呀！
Sold 400 VBAAF to add 500 VBAAH, 50 ORGAJ, and some DVAX. I know it was not the best day to do these today but I just wanted to get them done so as not to keep thinking about them. My eyesight is not set on today, tomorrow, or the day after and I don't attempt to time the market.
These swaps were done according to plans except that I expected to offload MGMAC but the big boys decided to rest MGM. Accordingly, the plans had to be carried out via VBAAF. When the big boys decide to let BAC, DNDN and MGM run, they will run hard. This is not an issue of if but when.
钱到买股票时方恨少呀！
BAC: Yesterday's laggard! Today's leader?
As of 5:47am, DOW futures are up 81 points and S&P 9.7.
At 6:08, BAC is up 1 point in early PM trading, looking to breach 17 again. It was very active in yesterday's AH trading, triggered by the SEC filing that Hedge Fund manager, John Paulson, owned 168M shares at the cost of about $2.5B by the end of June.
BAC did pull back from the intraday high of 17.4 on last Friday to yesterday's intraday low of 15.4, a full 2 points retracement in a matter of days. Hope all of you looking for a pullback to reload has reloaded at yesterday's lows. Myself swapped 30 LEAP calls for the 40 strike and also took quite a bit off the table. The 40 LEAP won't make substantial moves until BAC breaks above 20. After that, the 40 LEAP's growth will be more powerful than the 30 LEAP.
Best of lucks!
As of 5:47am, DOW futures are up 81 points and S&P 9.7.
At 6:08, BAC is up 1 point in early PM trading, looking to breach 17 again. It was very active in yesterday's AH trading, triggered by the SEC filing that Hedge Fund manager, John Paulson, owned 168M shares at the cost of about $2.5B by the end of June.
BAC did pull back from the intraday high of 17.4 on last Friday to yesterday's intraday low of 15.4, a full 2 points retracement in a matter of days. Hope all of you looking for a pullback to reload has reloaded at yesterday's lows. Myself swapped 30 LEAP calls for the 40 strike and also took quite a bit off the table. The 40 LEAP won't make substantial moves until BAC breaks above 20. After that, the 40 LEAP's growth will be more powerful than the 30 LEAP.
Best of lucks!
- 注册
- 2007-08-17
- 消息
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- 荣誉分数
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i missed the BAC chance. But I think there will be another pull back very soon.
Today is a happy day that i dumped my trouble C which i loaded at 4.02, dumped it at 4.10. I'm sure it will go lower as 3.5-3.8, will load it again.
Anyone has idea of Canadian market? Any good mineral company?
Today is a happy day that i dumped my trouble C which i loaded at 4.02, dumped it at 4.10. I'm sure it will go lower as 3.5-3.8, will load it again.
Anyone has idea of Canadian market? Any good mineral company?
Sold off my VBAAF to add ORGAH today
This move was not in the plan but simply could not resist the temptation of DNDN at 23 and ORGAH at 4.65. From an immediate short-term perspective, this is a very bad move, swapping a strong bull for a sleeping dog. But this DNDN dog will surely wake up and when it does, the move upwards will be fierce. My timing for swaps over the last few days was completely off and as a result, my account balance suffers tremendous loss of huge potential gains. Selling off 1000 VBAAF in three days has already costed me a fortune. The cold comfort is that I sold off for nearly a double and also loaded 1500 VBAAH. I am very confident, though, that give DNDN some time, it will offset my loss of huge potential gains and then some.
Today, the big boys had no choice but to release the leash on BAC off the opening gate and MGM after 3pm. They will sooner or later do that to DNDN. Depending upon the intensity of buying interests, they may be able to keep the tight leash until after OE --- the manipulation is simply unbelievable. Can't beat them, so I can only join them.
This move was not in the plan but simply could not resist the temptation of DNDN at 23 and ORGAH at 4.65. From an immediate short-term perspective, this is a very bad move, swapping a strong bull for a sleeping dog. But this DNDN dog will surely wake up and when it does, the move upwards will be fierce. My timing for swaps over the last few days was completely off and as a result, my account balance suffers tremendous loss of huge potential gains. Selling off 1000 VBAAF in three days has already costed me a fortune. The cold comfort is that I sold off for nearly a double and also loaded 1500 VBAAH. I am very confident, though, that give DNDN some time, it will offset my loss of huge potential gains and then some.
Today, the big boys had no choice but to release the leash on BAC off the opening gate and MGM after 3pm. They will sooner or later do that to DNDN. Depending upon the intensity of buying interests, they may be able to keep the tight leash until after OE --- the manipulation is simply unbelievable. Can't beat them, so I can only join them.
Are you still on? If so, it appears like just you and me. I will be there at 6:30pm sharp tomorrow, drinking beer and eating oysters.
Thanks , I will go .....
Opened my position in ARNA today
After watching it going up and down, down and up, for months, I pulled the buy trigger today with a small position. This is a Phase III clinical trial result play. The first of its late-stage study for its weight loss drug was released earlier and met FDA guidance on weight loss. The second study results are expected in September. The company plans to file a NDA within the year should the results hit. This is my fourth biotech play of the year. It is a speculative play and hence my position is rather smaller. Hit or miss, it won't make or break me. How I will play it after the results depends on how the results shape up. As of now, I am only focusing on the expected results in September.
Realizing the devastating mistakes I made over the last few days in the short term by swapping BAC options for DNDN options, I bought back another 200 VBAAH at the ask this afternoon to make my collection of 1700. These mistakes have costed me over 50 grand in just 3 days. For a man, it is hard not to make mistakes and I have made tons of them, and will surely make more in the future. It is even harder to admit them and attempt to correct them, with minimal costs.
DVAX dropped again, and I added some more as planned.
After watching it going up and down, down and up, for months, I pulled the buy trigger today with a small position. This is a Phase III clinical trial result play. The first of its late-stage study for its weight loss drug was released earlier and met FDA guidance on weight loss. The second study results are expected in September. The company plans to file a NDA within the year should the results hit. This is my fourth biotech play of the year. It is a speculative play and hence my position is rather smaller. Hit or miss, it won't make or break me. How I will play it after the results depends on how the results shape up. As of now, I am only focusing on the expected results in September.
Realizing the devastating mistakes I made over the last few days in the short term by swapping BAC options for DNDN options, I bought back another 200 VBAAH at the ask this afternoon to make my collection of 1700. These mistakes have costed me over 50 grand in just 3 days. For a man, it is hard not to make mistakes and I have made tons of them, and will surely make more in the future. It is even harder to admit them and attempt to correct them, with minimal costs.
DVAX dropped again, and I added some more as planned.
你回帖时BAC在11.5左右、MGM在5.7左右。 有你那样的火眼金睛，但愿你那时买了！在我看来，这可是下轮经济复苏高涨的两大领涨股哟。我自己偏爱的biotech是另类。
I hope you did not short BAC!
The economy is on the recovery slope, insiders are buying, funds loading, all is well with BAC! One of these days in the foreseeable future, BAC may pop 3-5 points in one day! When the pps has way surpassed WFC and is catching up with JPM, it is probably a good time to take some off the BAC table. Too bad I have sold off my lower strike LEAP calls and taken quite a bit money off the table. For my current holding, I plan to sell most but exercise some. When BAC restates its handsome dividends, it is not advisable to hold call options.
Don't bet your money against an economist who happens to be a humble student of the economy and all markets: labour, financial, real estate, energy, metals!
Best of lucks to all!
