精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
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lazycatcat
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nepean_01
Do you like to share DD work ? Here is a list of companies in the bio field:
[media]http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/515_cl_all.html[/media]
1. Go to each company's website.
2. Check to see if there is any fund raising in the past year (Jan. 2008 to now).
3. If yes, include the company as potential candidate and we can do more DD on it.
Jia has been in this area for a long time and has a lot of experiences. He may have more specific targets.
Do you like to share DD work ? Here is a list of companies in the bio field:
[media]http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/515_cl_all.html[/media]
1. Go to each company's website.
2. Check to see if there is any fund raising in the past year (Jan. 2008 to now).
3. If yes, include the company as potential candidate and we can do more DD on it.
Jia has been in this area for a long time and has a lot of experiences. He may have more specific targets.
OREX better than ARNA?
I found OREX might be better choice because of three reasons:
1. Better weight lose. High single digit comparing with ARNA's 5%.
2. Smaller cap.
3. More recent insider buying: OREX Insider trading transactions, insider planned sales - MSN Money. Their purchase price is around 7.7-8.00. ARNA's insider purchase is around 2-3.
I have plenty of ARNA, might switch to OREX soon. Jia, what do you think? Just ask your opinion, nothing to do with money matter...
Plus, ARNA got a big drop during the last release...
I found OREX might be better choice because of three reasons:
1. Better weight lose. High single digit comparing with ARNA's 5%.
2. Smaller cap.
3. More recent insider buying: OREX Insider trading transactions, insider planned sales - MSN Money. Their purchase price is around 7.7-8.00. ARNA's insider purchase is around 2-3.
I have plenty of ARNA, might switch to OREX soon. Jia, what do you think? Just ask your opinion, nothing to do with money matter...
Plus, ARNA got a big drop during the last release...
I have my own judgement but I was wrong many times in the past and I am sure I will be wrong many times in the future. I have posted quite a few times about ARNA since I got my first buy order filled. In the weight management space, there are only three drugs currently in late-stage development plus a couple in Phase II testing. Qnexa and Contrave trial results are all reported now, BLOSSOM results are yet to come. For any drug or biologics, safety and efficacy are always the two endpoints to look at. In this space, many drugs had good efficacy but safety has been what brought them down in the end, the most famous being pen-phen of Wye (now PFE) in the 1990s, a multi blockbuster brought down by severe side effects and law suits. To evaluate the three main drug candidates for weight loss, I simply ask the following quesion: a drug is surely deadly effective if it makes people really sick and lose weight fast, but will doctors prescribe it and will people take it?
To compare the three, I look at trial designs, exclusions, dosing, dropout rates, efficacy end points, FDA guidelines, side effects. I don't like seeing what I see in Qnexa and Contrave. At this stage of the game, my ARNA position is a pure speculative BLOSSOM play, as I have stated many times before. And that is all I can say. Let me repeat, I was wrong many times in the past and I am sure I will be wrong many times in the future. 我贴的都是我自己的一人之见，结果只有一样：分析判断对，赚钱；分析判断错，赔钱. 对错要等结果出来后才见分晓，事前没法知道.
The market is so big that maybe there is something for all three. But my working capital is limited and I can't own all three. I have to pick and choose. I go with what I like the most.
Best of lucks!
DVAX news is out: PM trading just started and it is rocheting into orbit!
This rochet is fully fuelled and has been sitting on the launcher. Central control has just given the command for lift off!
Dynavax Reports FDA Removes Clinical Hold on HEPLISAVTM Phase 3 Hepatitis B Vaccine - Yahoo! Finance
This rochet is fully fuelled and has been sitting on the launcher. Central control has just given the command for lift off!
Dynavax Reports FDA Removes Clinical Hold on HEPLISAVTM Phase 3 Hepatitis B Vaccine - Yahoo! Finance
Sold my DVAX trading position to buy some ORGAJ and GNBT
DVAX news was expected and came through today. It was a great piece of news to wake up to. DVAX is a completely new ball game now as more than the entire float changed hands today. One down in September, two more to go. It would be great if ARNA and DNDN could come through too!
GNBT is a small biotech firm based in Toronto, focusing on drug delivery technologies. Its lead product candicate is Oral-lyn, 口腔喷射胰岛素，currently in Phase III pivotal clinical trial. This morning, the USFDA approved its use under the USFDA'S Treatment Investigational New Drug (IND) Program for patients with serious or life-threatening conditions for which there is no satisfactory alternative treatment. Normally, I don't own penny stocks but this news is huge, IMO. Anybody please share here if doing further DD, thanks in advance.
Does anybody own MGM here? Oh boy, what fabulous three days it is enjoying! My MGMAC exactly tripled since Tuesday and it seems, MGM keeps going up --- this little bull is simply unstoppable after being kept in the cage for so long!
Mr. Cuomo has put a lid on BAC pps. Please keep it for a few more days as I want to add.
DNDN has been subject to this tight trading range for a very long time now. It is not expected to make any meaningful move until significant news hits.
ARNA's surging volume over the past two days is very encouraging --- this kind of accumulation is fueling the stock to be launched by news, expected any time now, either up or down. With this kind of volume, shorts are very close to running out of bullets to cap the pps.
DVAX news was expected and came through today. It was a great piece of news to wake up to. DVAX is a completely new ball game now as more than the entire float changed hands today. One down in September, two more to go. It would be great if ARNA and DNDN could come through too!
GNBT is a small biotech firm based in Toronto, focusing on drug delivery technologies. Its lead product candicate is Oral-lyn, 口腔喷射胰岛素，currently in Phase III pivotal clinical trial. This morning, the USFDA approved its use under the USFDA'S Treatment Investigational New Drug (IND) Program for patients with serious or life-threatening conditions for which there is no satisfactory alternative treatment. Normally, I don't own penny stocks but this news is huge, IMO. Anybody please share here if doing further DD, thanks in advance.
Does anybody own MGM here? Oh boy, what fabulous three days it is enjoying! My MGMAC exactly tripled since Tuesday and it seems, MGM keeps going up --- this little bull is simply unstoppable after being kept in the cage for so long!
Mr. Cuomo has put a lid on BAC pps. Please keep it for a few more days as I want to add.
DNDN has been subject to this tight trading range for a very long time now. It is not expected to make any meaningful move until significant news hits.
ARNA's surging volume over the past two days is very encouraging --- this kind of accumulation is fueling the stock to be launched by news, expected any time now, either up or down. With this kind of volume, shorts are very close to running out of bullets to cap the pps.
lazycatcat
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Congratulations on your DVAX operation.
GNBT financials don't look too good. It is probably bleeding $10 - $15 M per quarter. Not sure how it is going to fund the operation. Plus, it seems to be involved in quite a few new fields, ranging from SAR to H1N1.
Insulin delivery seems to be an interesting area - PFE was in inhaling insulin I believe and the withdrew.
There may not be more news from GNBT I presume. Thus, I am not sure how it is going to raise new funds without diluting current share holders. Any comments ?
MGM's 2006 - 2007 net is about $650 M. I think market cap was about $10 B at that time with comparable debt load. At this level, share price would be around $22 now.
Any comments on MGM's latest capital structure and potential of earning power increase and recovery ?
GNBT financials don't look too good. It is probably bleeding $10 - $15 M per quarter. Not sure how it is going to fund the operation. Plus, it seems to be involved in quite a few new fields, ranging from SAR to H1N1.
Insulin delivery seems to be an interesting area - PFE was in inhaling insulin I believe and the withdrew.
There may not be more news from GNBT I presume. Thus, I am not sure how it is going to raise new funds without diluting current share holders. Any comments ?
MGM's 2006 - 2007 net is about $650 M. I think market cap was about $10 B at that time with comparable debt load. At this level, share price would be around $22 now.
Any comments on MGM's latest capital structure and potential of earning power increase and recovery ?
Thanks, guys
I have said that stock speculation is an art, not an exact science before, let me say that again!
Stocks are traded by people and human behaviour is more often than not unpredictable. There are so many determining variables that cannot be controlled for, unlike an experiment in a lab. Even in econometric modelling, there are Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Then again, there are emerging geopolitical events that there is no way to predict.
In my mind, there are 5 fronts the speculator is confronting in order of importance: political, macroeconomic, sentimental, FA and TA. BAC's recent trading is a classic example of the importance of political forces. Since the judge's refusal to sign off the Merrill-related SEC settlement agreement, the pps has been stalled, then came Mr. Cuomo again, putting more capping pressure on the pps. I think TARP repayment is a big catalyst for BAC. That reported in-discussion of repaying 20B did not do a thing for the pps. DNDN is another classic example. True, there wasn't much new news for months now. But why is it in this tight trading range despite the surging indexes? I think the healthcare reform debate plays a big role pertaining to whether insurance will cover Provenge. IMO, there is no base for this doubt (DNA's cancer treatment costs over 100K a year alone, plus costs associated with controlling side effects, insurance has no problem so far) but that is how the market reacts to this debate. That is why, I attempt to anticipate events but not pps.
Biotech is a totally different animal and that is one of the reasons I like it the best.
I don't operate on a technical basis. TA is, among the above-mentioned 5 fronts, the least important to me.
Best of lucks!
I have said that stock speculation is an art, not an exact science before, let me say that again!
Stocks are traded by people and human behaviour is more often than not unpredictable. There are so many determining variables that cannot be controlled for, unlike an experiment in a lab. Even in econometric modelling, there are Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Then again, there are emerging geopolitical events that there is no way to predict.
In my mind, there are 5 fronts the speculator is confronting in order of importance: political, macroeconomic, sentimental, FA and TA. BAC's recent trading is a classic example of the importance of political forces. Since the judge's refusal to sign off the Merrill-related SEC settlement agreement, the pps has been stalled, then came Mr. Cuomo again, putting more capping pressure on the pps. I think TARP repayment is a big catalyst for BAC. That reported in-discussion of repaying 20B did not do a thing for the pps. DNDN is another classic example. True, there wasn't much new news for months now. But why is it in this tight trading range despite the surging indexes? I think the healthcare reform debate plays a big role pertaining to whether insurance will cover Provenge. IMO, there is no base for this doubt (DNA's cancer treatment costs over 100K a year alone, plus costs associated with controlling side effects, insurance has no problem so far) but that is how the market reacts to this debate. That is why, I attempt to anticipate events but not pps.
Biotech is a totally different animal and that is one of the reasons I like it the best.
I don't operate on a technical basis. TA is, among the above-mentioned 5 fronts, the least important to me.
Best of lucks!
Cashed in some MGMAC chips in the AM to add ORGAH and bought VBAAF
It has been a mixed short week for my account balance. MGM caught fire. DVAX news came through yesterday but it was a traders' market. I only sold my trading position. The selloff from yesterday's high was very hard. Although the selloff is over-done, IMO, but Wall Street is driven by greed and fear in the short run. I did not buy back my DVAX trading position today --- the volume was simply too high for accumulation. ARNA had a good week too. But my two biggest positions lost ground quite significantly.
I was hoping that ARNA could come through with a favourable BLOSSOM release such that I could cash in to add DNDN and BAC. That did not materialize. However, MGM and DVAX pleasantly surprised, big time. So, the end result is the same. All in all, it has been a good short week. This is living proof again that timing the market is not only hard but also stupid for Mr. Market is full of the unexpected and the unexpectable.
Have a nice week, all!
It has been a mixed short week for my account balance. MGM caught fire. DVAX news came through yesterday but it was a traders' market. I only sold my trading position. The selloff from yesterday's high was very hard. Although the selloff is over-done, IMO, but Wall Street is driven by greed and fear in the short run. I did not buy back my DVAX trading position today --- the volume was simply too high for accumulation. ARNA had a good week too. But my two biggest positions lost ground quite significantly.
I was hoping that ARNA could come through with a favourable BLOSSOM release such that I could cash in to add DNDN and BAC. That did not materialize. However, MGM and DVAX pleasantly surprised, big time. So, the end result is the same. All in all, it has been a good short week. This is living proof again that timing the market is not only hard but also stupid for Mr. Market is full of the unexpected and the unexpectable.
Have a nice week, all!
lazycatcat
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I am ignorant of TA. It is a kind of tea leaf to me. Jeremy Siegle had some comments on TA and the only useful indicator was 200 average that was historically correct in predicting 1929 and 2000 crashes. Not sure how useful it is for trading.
The period of 1999 to 2009 provides a perfect sampling for studying MGM. One can just have quick study on its profitability, return on equity and capital structure over this period to gain some ideas on the future earning power of MGM.
I like speculation based on a good understanding of the earning power of a company. For established companies like MGM, that is the only way I believe one can gain certain degree of advantage over Mr. Market.
As to the bio's, I am amazed on how responsive the market is to FDA related news. One good thing about bio is no one really have an absolute advantage on information. Even for drugs passing Phase III trial, only about 50% to 60% will be approved by FDA (based on recent data quoted by PFE CEO in Fortune).
If anyone has the bandwidth to go through MGM for the last decade and is willing to share, it will be greatly appreciated.
The period of 1999 to 2009 provides a perfect sampling for studying MGM. One can just have quick study on its profitability, return on equity and capital structure over this period to gain some ideas on the future earning power of MGM.
I like speculation based on a good understanding of the earning power of a company. For established companies like MGM, that is the only way I believe one can gain certain degree of advantage over Mr. Market.
As to the bio's, I am amazed on how responsive the market is to FDA related news. One good thing about bio is no one really have an absolute advantage on information. Even for drugs passing Phase III trial, only about 50% to 60% will be approved by FDA (based on recent data quoted by PFE CEO in Fortune).
If anyone has the bandwidth to go through MGM for the last decade and is willing to share, it will be greatly appreciated.
ARIA came to my attention quite a while back. It is engaged in legal battles against Elly Lilly for patent infrigements. Besides, it is an oncology play with Merk as the development and marketing partner. I do not know enough about the product candidate and the market potentials. But I have seen enough interim results to say with confidence that the stock will give back gains made from this kind of interim results, a DMC recommendation of trial continuation. If it gains on other grounds, that is a different story.
I was not in it but if I were, I would take advantage of this kind of pop to trade for more shares or lower cost base.
I am mostly in biotech but only late-stage developmental ones. Because the FDA normally requires two phase III trials, I usually get in after the 1st trial results are released.
DNDN is on the move with surging volume and MGM picking up where if left off last Fri
DNDN has no news but this forceful move up is signifying something big is brewing. All hell will break loose should it walk through the May high of 27.4.
The casino sector doesn't appear to have lost steam yet. LVS powers through and MGM is in solid green territory.
Both looking good!
GNBT financing is out, not much of a discount to the market at all. I was hoping for a discount so as to add at lower level.
DNDN has no news but this forceful move up is signifying something big is brewing. All hell will break loose should it walk through the May high of 27.4.
The casino sector doesn't appear to have lost steam yet. LVS powers through and MGM is in solid green territory.
Both looking good!
GNBT financing is out, not much of a discount to the market at all. I was hoping for a discount so as to add at lower level.
