精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
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I believe the boats are run by the Niagara Parks Commission, a self-financed agency of the Ontario Ministry of Tourism.
Sold out of MGMAC
That was a great 7-day run. This is a classic one-day reversal --- higher high and lower low with surging volume and closes lower than yesterday's close. Will reload later. Possibly get some LVS too.
Bought VBZAB (ELN 2011 Jan. 10 calls). ELN's legal battle with BIIB over Tysabri is over. The deal with JNJ is amended accordingly.
That was a great 7-day run. This is a classic one-day reversal --- higher high and lower low with surging volume and closes lower than yesterday's close. Will reload later. Possibly get some LVS too.
Bought VBZAB (ELN 2011 Jan. 10 calls). ELN's legal battle with BIIB over Tysabri is over. The deal with JNJ is amended accordingly.
lazycatcat
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Thanks for the Maid of Mist information. I guess there is no way to profit from it.
Good timing on MGM.
For ELN, can you provide a bit more DD, like what good drugs they are making and the deal with JNJ ?
Good timing on MGM.
For ELN, can you provide a bit more DD, like what good drugs they are making and the deal with JNJ ?
All my ELN DD was posted in earlier posts. ELN originally owns EDT, 1/2 Tysabri, 1/2 BAP, and some hospital drugs. Under the JNJ deal, JNJ buys 18.4% of ELN stock originally at $1B and now $885M with the amendment. JNJ also puts in $500M to form a new company to co-develop BAP (with WYE and now PFE),of which JNJ owns 51% and ELN 49%. The earliest BAP candidate is AAB-001 with Phase III trial expected to complete by next summer.
I expect to get back in MGM after stabilization in a few days. Also plan to get in LVS.
Need ARNA to come through to feel Xmas in September
DNDN and BAC are inching up. MGM sent a clear danger signal by retracing below 14, so I followed through by letting them have my shares on the way down. Got back to ELN finally. DVAX is basing after a news-ignited breakout. I will feel Xmas in September if BLOSSOM comes through favourably. The wait isn't long now, one way or another. Will get back in MGM after today's mess stabilizes.
Best of lucks to those who deserve!
DNDN and BAC are inching up. MGM sent a clear danger signal by retracing below 14, so I followed through by letting them have my shares on the way down. Got back to ELN finally. DVAX is basing after a news-ignited breakout. I will feel Xmas in September if BLOSSOM comes through favourably. The wait isn't long now, one way or another. Will get back in MGM after today's mess stabilizes.
Best of lucks to those who deserve!
Lazycatcat: can you dig up ELN's financials please?
I only paid attention to ELN's products and pipeline, the game changing deal with JNJ in particular. ELN gets to where it is now because of maturing debt next year. The cash infusion from JNJ largely solved this problem. The pps surged upon the JNJ deal but started to decline immediately after exposure of the Tysabri-financing clause that was not initially disclosed. That problem is fixed now but JNJ shaved off $185M from its stake in ELN in the amended deal. KM and the lawyers deserve nothing but a punch in the face. The share sale to JNJ is not dilutive. Normalized 2Q sales, Tysabri is already a blockbuster and expected to grow and grow. EDT is bring in good money too. The CFO expected ELN to break even this year and be profitable next year, according to the 2QER conference call. The big thing is AAB-001 with market potentials estimated around $10B. Please dig up the financials and share with me here. Thanks in advance!
DNDN: The September 24 Analyst Day has built expections up such that if no significant news hits the wire, DNDN may suffer a pretty significant haircut. If OTOH, significant news hits, DNDN may spike a few more points from here, advancing to the mid- to high-30's. I am not fully loaded with DNDN yet but to guard against the possibility of no big news, I am reserving some dry powder for a potential buying opportunity.
DVAX: The Heplisav clinical hold is now lifted and management has announced to initiate another Phase III trial soon. This trial will be very costly. As such, additional financing will be needed. Two ways to go about the funding: 1) co-development and marketing partnership, MRK or GSK is expected as the leading candidate; 2) Stock sale to the market. Again, I am not fully loaded and am reserving some dry powder to guard against the 2nd scenario.
ARNA: nothing to do but wait.
BAC: the polital/legal cloud is still hanging around. Fully loaded. Wait.
MGM and LVS: today's mess reversed the uptrend, a textbook one-day reversal. I saw the writing on the wall with MGM retracing back to below 14. It will take a few days to clean this mess up. Look to get in both.
SVA: Watching it for a possible entry. I did not trust the news and missed a boat. Now that government orders have been placed and with flu season around the corner, I feel this is a good stock to have an ownership.
Best to those who deserve!
I only paid attention to ELN's products and pipeline, the game changing deal with JNJ in particular. ELN gets to where it is now because of maturing debt next year. The cash infusion from JNJ largely solved this problem. The pps surged upon the JNJ deal but started to decline immediately after exposure of the Tysabri-financing clause that was not initially disclosed. That problem is fixed now but JNJ shaved off $185M from its stake in ELN in the amended deal. KM and the lawyers deserve nothing but a punch in the face. The share sale to JNJ is not dilutive. Normalized 2Q sales, Tysabri is already a blockbuster and expected to grow and grow. EDT is bring in good money too. The CFO expected ELN to break even this year and be profitable next year, according to the 2QER conference call. The big thing is AAB-001 with market potentials estimated around $10B. Please dig up the financials and share with me here. Thanks in advance!
DNDN: The September 24 Analyst Day has built expections up such that if no significant news hits the wire, DNDN may suffer a pretty significant haircut. If OTOH, significant news hits, DNDN may spike a few more points from here, advancing to the mid- to high-30's. I am not fully loaded with DNDN yet but to guard against the possibility of no big news, I am reserving some dry powder for a potential buying opportunity.
DVAX: The Heplisav clinical hold is now lifted and management has announced to initiate another Phase III trial soon. This trial will be very costly. As such, additional financing will be needed. Two ways to go about the funding: 1) co-development and marketing partnership, MRK or GSK is expected as the leading candidate; 2) Stock sale to the market. Again, I am not fully loaded and am reserving some dry powder to guard against the 2nd scenario.
ARNA: nothing to do but wait.
BAC: the polital/legal cloud is still hanging around. Fully loaded. Wait.
MGM and LVS: today's mess reversed the uptrend, a textbook one-day reversal. I saw the writing on the wall with MGM retracing back to below 14. It will take a few days to clean this mess up. Look to get in both.
SVA: Watching it for a possible entry. I did not trust the news and missed a boat. Now that government orders have been placed and with flu season around the corner, I feel this is a good stock to have an ownership.
Best to those who deserve!
lazycatcat
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Listened to Buffett's talk in Fortune. One point he made is that housing market in California is looking up for houses below $500,000. For the ones higher than $900,000, it is still terrible.
His comments are reliable as Berkshire owns the second largest real-estate broker in USA.
Any thoughts on how to play ? My personal take is that banks are the best approach. More toxic asset the better. The question is how to leverage up without risking too much capital. BAC at $40 is not unthinkable since it represents 1% return on its total asset - achievable but not easy. However, buying these calls at $0.40 in large quantities, I am not used to it.
So, ..... ???
ARNA could be interesting. The lower it goes, the higher it shall pop. High market expectation is always a poison to stock price.
ELN is tempting but again how to play it though ? I think someone should do a valuation analysis on MGM. It is not hard at all but needs to burn some candles. Key points are:
1. Refinancing requirement.
2. Capital expendiure and cash flow.
3. Historical, current and future earning power.
MGM and LSV probably will be late-cycle recover stories. Banks are probably the nearest ones to recover ...
His comments are reliable as Berkshire owns the second largest real-estate broker in USA.
Any thoughts on how to play ? My personal take is that banks are the best approach. More toxic asset the better. The question is how to leverage up without risking too much capital. BAC at $40 is not unthinkable since it represents 1% return on its total asset - achievable but not easy. However, buying these calls at $0.40 in large quantities, I am not used to it.
So, ..... ???
ARNA could be interesting. The lower it goes, the higher it shall pop. High market expectation is always a poison to stock price.
ELN is tempting but again how to play it though ? I think someone should do a valuation analysis on MGM. It is not hard at all but needs to burn some candles. Key points are:
1. Refinancing requirement.
2. Capital expendiure and cash flow.
3. Historical, current and future earning power.
MGM and LSV probably will be late-cycle recover stories. Banks are probably the nearest ones to recover ...
lazycatcat
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ARNA
I wish this works out great for you tomorrow !
I wish this works out great for you tomorrow !
lazycatcat
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ELN
ELN's 2nd quarter revenue is $280 and suffers a slight loss. I suspect cash flow is probably slight positive.
After JNJ deal, it will have roughly $1.0 B in cash with $1.8 B in debt. The highlights of JNJ deals are:
1. ELN yields slightly 50% of Alzheimer interest to JNJ. It retains 49% equity to the new AZ entity.
2. JNJ invests $885 toke 18.4% stake in ELN. Plus, it commits upto $500 M to the AZ entity.
JNJ essentially valued entire ELN at $4.8 B versus current marekt value of $3.51 B (without including debt).
ELN will rely heavily on Tysabri in the next few years. The sale of this drug will probably hit $1 B this year.
Jia, correct me if I am wrong. Tysabri is an anit-body and thus is a protein based drug. I like this type of drug because its patents expiry are NOT relevant ! This type of drug is under the protection of bio patent in that production procedure needs to be verified. This prevents generic players to produce this drug even if its patent expires.
Take Avastin and Herceptin as examples (Genetech). So, Tysabri could be long-living drug.
Please do verify as you know ELN better than I do. This is a very important point. Small molecule drug can easily be taken over by generics once patents expire because there is no protection from production side.
So, ELN looks good long-term based on JNJ commitment and Tysabri alone. I can't value ELN but JNJ and Tysabri look good. The AZ looks good too. JNJ is no fool ...
Let me know why ELN was high flying before etc. Did it fall due to Tysabri glitch ?
ELN's 2nd quarter revenue is $280 and suffers a slight loss. I suspect cash flow is probably slight positive.
After JNJ deal, it will have roughly $1.0 B in cash with $1.8 B in debt. The highlights of JNJ deals are:
1. ELN yields slightly 50% of Alzheimer interest to JNJ. It retains 49% equity to the new AZ entity.
2. JNJ invests $885 toke 18.4% stake in ELN. Plus, it commits upto $500 M to the AZ entity.
JNJ essentially valued entire ELN at $4.8 B versus current marekt value of $3.51 B (without including debt).
ELN will rely heavily on Tysabri in the next few years. The sale of this drug will probably hit $1 B this year.
Jia, correct me if I am wrong. Tysabri is an anit-body and thus is a protein based drug. I like this type of drug because its patents expiry are NOT relevant ! This type of drug is under the protection of bio patent in that production procedure needs to be verified. This prevents generic players to produce this drug even if its patent expires.
Take Avastin and Herceptin as examples (Genetech). So, Tysabri could be long-living drug.
Please do verify as you know ELN better than I do. This is a very important point. Small molecule drug can easily be taken over by generics once patents expire because there is no protection from production side.
So, ELN looks good long-term based on JNJ commitment and Tysabri alone. I can't value ELN but JNJ and Tysabri look good. The AZ looks good too. JNJ is no fool ...
Let me know why ELN was high flying before etc. Did it fall due to Tysabri glitch ?
The first big fall was in Feb. and then March 2005 due to 3 cases of PML in Tysabri trials, which wiped me out due to margin calls.
The second monster fall was July last year after the ICAD presentation of AAB-001 Phase II results, slightly missing overall endpoints. However, subset analysis showed great results for about 60% of the treatment arm. HGSI failed big time in Phase II results. But its Phase III trial targeted the sub-population for which the drug works. I believe Wye and ELN have modified the Phase III trial design based on the Phase II results.
It further dipped below 5 this year due to maturing debt concern.
I believe the JNJ deal is game changing. So I waited until yesterday for news confirmation before getting 40% of my ideal position.
