精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

DNDN: the right way to kick off an OE week

The only complaint I have is that I was 30 ORGAH and 150 ORGAJ away from being fully loaded. In other words, I am not yet ready for this no news breakout. But since Mr. Market wants to reward my conviction, I will gladly and graciously accept it.

A few small transactions to record today: added some VBAAF; bought a little trading DVAX back; sold 20 ORGAH that was bought last Friday; sold GNBT. The sales were meant for cash need to prepare for room to short ARNA Oct. 4 puts. The ARNA pressure cooker is on and shorts are getting very desparate. They resorted to buying a bundle of puts again last Friday so as to buy the shares naked shorted by MM's. Sooner or later, they will run out of bullets to cap the pps. In case of a clear BLOSSOM hit, all their capping efforts will be in vein and smaller hedge funds may go BK like what DNDN did to them back in April.

Best of lucks to all!

 

[加京游子]

The US Court vs SEC/BAC

This funny show is in play now. If you own BAC, watch it closely. I don't know what to expect out of this but if a buying opportunity presents itself, I am prepared to add more.

Best of lucks!

 

[lazycatcat]

Citi

Bloomber reports that US government is seeking to sell 34% of its stake in C. This could be rather interesting.

C has a lot of toxic assets on its book and on its off-balance vehicles. I believe it has around 25B shares outstanding after recent preferred conversions. - Please double check on the 25B number ...

Near time, I think C is probably worth around $100 B. However, if anyone is willing to buy from the government, it may indicate confidence in the company.

C has an annual profit about $20 B before crash. Restoring it takes time but let's use that as a bench mark. So C could be worth anywhere from $4 to $6, with $8 probably being upper limit.

Jia, any ideas on how to play it ?

 

[加京游子]

Bloomber reports that US government is seeking to sell 34% of its stake in C. This could be rather interesting.

C has a lot of toxic assets on its book and on its off-balance vehicles. I believe it has around 25B shares outstanding after recent preferred conversions. - Please double check on the 25B number ...

Near time, I think C is probably worth around $100 B. However, if anyone is willing to buy from the government, it may indicate confidence in the company.

C has an annual profit about $20 B before crash. Restoring it takes time but let's use that as a bench mark. So C could be worth anywhere from $4 to $6, with $8 probably being upper limit.

Jia, any ideas on how to play it ?

I won't long it before the government sale is confirmed. I have said it before and let me repeat that I don't like a big US hand in private business. So, the only way I can possibly play it is short. But I won't short it either because it is all a matter of relative opportunity and I believe there are a lot better opportunities out there. I am waiting for the ARNA story to play out. DNDN has already broken out today before I buy Oct. calls as planned. DNDN's volume today and AH trading tell me this is more than a rumour ignited rally. Although my LEAP calls are doing great, short-term calls are doing a lot better! Oh, well, I have a good day. Need BLOSSOM to be a clear hit and BAC to perform. I am very confident BAC will perform in due time. DNDN was kept in a tight trading range for nearly 4 months and a half. One day, just one, broke all of that. And I feel better days are ahead.

Good luck if you play it.

 

[lazycatcat]

BAC

C's range is too narrow to do anything now.

I like one-time controversy now playing with BAC. However, CEO and CFO might be ousted. Current BAC chairman is an academic, Walter E. Massey, president emeritus of Morehouse College in Atlanta.

Two concerns here:

1. Repeat of Chuck Prince for Citi when Sany Weils was forced out in 2000 scandals.

2. A checklist compliance by the academic chairman.

If these two events occur, BAC may take time to recover, given its complexity....

 

[lazycatcat]

Moving ?

We can create an email circulation if this string catches too much unwarranted attention....

Any thoughts on when ARNA is going to report ?

 

[加京游子]

Any MGM co-owner here?

Congratulations if you own it! This runaway train is simply unstoppable! Although I sold my MGMAC way too early, I am just glad that I keep some free chips for the ride and the ride is so enjoyable, moving from 0.35 to 2.04 in six trading sessions. MGM closed today at the 2009 high and moved higher in AH trading. Should it walk through 14.01, the May intraday high, the sky is the limit. In hindsight, I should have kept at least twice as much as I have left with. All water under the bridge now. Rome isn't built in a day, anyway.

DNDN could not sustain yesterday's gain. It gave some back from profit taking. This is just a normal reaction after a big move. There is nothing to worry about. Consolidation is a healthy thing, just like a general regrouping his men in preparation for the next all-out assault after winning a battle.

BAC is under this political and legal cloud but churning at this level isn't that bad. DNDN was subject to a tight trading range for nearly 4 months after all.

DVAX seems to stabilize and base around 2.1. Bought back some more trading shares today. Expected next company-specific trigger: Heplisav development and marketing partnership announcement. Any buyout rumour may send it rocking too, just like last May.

ARNA is directionlessly on auto-pilot without BLOSSOM news, letting manipulators enjoy another day under the sun. But the pressure cooker is on. It may break out at the brink of an eye any time. I would love to see higher platforms to launch the rocket though should BLOSSOM hit convincingly.

See the forest behind the trees. Best to those we deserve!

 

[nepean_01]

Made big money on mgm this year

I have been on MGM, on and off a year long, starting from 2.x.

Today, I sold all MGM at 13.50. It is still very bullish though, because dirty Cramer higher the target of LVS. I will not be hurry on it.

 

[lazycatcat]

Congratulations !

Congratulations on MGM gains !

There is potential interesting trade on ARNA like this: 1). Sell Oct $2.5 put to get $0.30. 2). Buy Oct $7.5 call at $0.65. 3). Sell Oct $10 call at $0.30.

Essentially, one can bet $2.5 potential gain for $0.05 plus the tail risk of $2.5 put. One issue with this operation is that margin requirement could be 100% ...

BAC is interesting. I hope the judge is not another Spitzer. AIG won't collapse under the leadership of ex-CEO (Greeberg). Warren Buffett teamed with AIG's ex-CEO in trying to buy Long-term Management. That old fellow is no fool. Unfortunately, his ego caused him to iron out earning wrinkles and thus became a victim in Spitzer's personal ambition.

 

[加京游子]

I have been on MGM, on and off a year long, starting from 2.x.

Today, I sold all MGM at 13.50. It is still very bullish though, because dirty Cramer higher the target of LVS. I will not be hurry on it.

Congratulations! I missed the May explosion. When I was making my entry into the casino/hospitality sector, I was debating to go with MGM alone or to split between MGM and LVS. Upon the going-concern resolution news and the expected CityCentre grand opening new, I decided to go all with MGM. At one point, I had 2200 MGM, more than 1/2 of the open interest, but started to take profits from 0.35. My last sale was last Monday at 1.45. I am going to hold what I have left to maturity and possibly exercise some. They are free chips anyway.

I have mixed feelings at watching LVS run. I told myself to get in on any dips many times since the 8's but hesitated, hesitated. Oh well, can't win it all.

Profits always take care of things but I sort of regret that I took profits too early with this bull, way too early.

Congradulations again.

 

[加京游子]

Congratulations on MGM gains !

There is potential interesting trade on ARNA like this: 1). Sell Oct $2.5 put to get $0.30. 2). Buy Oct $7.5 call at $0.65. 3). Sell Oct $10 call at $0.30.

Essentially, one can bet $2.5 potential gain for $0.05 plus the tail risk of $2.5 put. One issue with this operation is that margin requirement could be 100% ...

BAC is interesting. I hope the judge is not another Spitzer. AIG won't collapse under the leadership of ex-CEO (Greeberg). Warren Buffett teamed with AIG's ex-CEO in trying to buy Long-term Management. That old fellow is no fool. Unfortunately, his ego caused him to iron out earning wrinkles and thus became a victim in Spitzer's personal ambition.

Your ARNA strategy is well thought out, from the risk management point of view. And 0.05 for a potential 2.5 is a huge gain. This is a great deal. I would do that if I had higher margin rooms. Get it done if you plan on doing it. There may not be much time left. For myself, gains in others have substantially increased my appetite for risk in ARNA and I want to make it big or lose it all. There is a fine line between greed and fear, and I regret very much about my earlier plays being too conservative. Taking profits is always a good thing, but if the play is right from the beginning, converting paper profits into real profits may not be the best thing as the paper profits are "house money". ARNA is the first of a big emotional test for me and I am holding to BLOSSOM news. I could have taken good profits off by selling at 0.85 but I simply ignore that paper profit altogether.

Play in whatever way you deem prudent and best of lucks!

 

[加京游子]

ARNA shorts are so desparate that they resorted to a downgrade by Rodman & Renshaw

This greatly increased my confidence in BLOSSOM and conviction in ARNA. Rodman & Renshaw is known as the go-to machination brokerage in WS for shorts. Downgrading ARNA just before BLOSSOM？WS is afterall WS. They are more interested in fees than reputation. I was fully loaded before this. I would otherwise add significantly. Is there anybody knowing their singing Joe Sendeck setting a target price of 1 for DNDN back in March？ARNA appears more and more like a DNDN repeat --- shorts are buying huge amount of puts so that MMs can naked short and they can buy the shares, now comes the RR downgrade.

Warning: I am just writing my notes. Do not follow my trades.

 

[lazycatcat]

Downgrade of ARNA should be good for speculation purpose. After all, no one really knows BLOSSOM results except for those who will go to jail if they speak out. So the analysts are essentially shooting in the dark.

That being said, I think it may be difficult to penetrate $10 due to valuation (as discussed in my previous note). The warrants deal added some poison to the stock price.

Personally, I think it makes sense to cover at $12.50 if not at $10. After all, leaving some strength for other betting is worthwhile. Plus, the drug is probably not ground breaking like the ones being produced by DNDN or ImClone ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Questions to Ask

Jia, I think it is worthwhile to ask right people who are the managers or entrepreneurs they are most impressed with. Or the great business they know of.

It may take some thinking to word the questions. However, it is a great way to find something good ...

When I was in Niagara Fall, I was really impressed with the boats that take tourists to the bottom of the fall. Each boat takes probably 100 to 150 people and takes 30 min's. It is like $1000 to $1500 revenue. The line is very very long...The profit margin must be staggering ... I searched website on Maid of Mist and no information on ownership ...

 

[加京游子]

Taking the week off, enjoying watching the fierce battle of MGM at 14

Wow, that was a fierce battle between bulls and bears at 14. It appears MGM is taking a strong hold over 14 now. I would be happy to see a close over 14. MGMAC volume is soaring to the roof.

BAC seems to pick up steam again after consolidating for many days. I added some VBAAH and VBAAF.

ARNA volume dramatically dies down. Is this calm before the storm?