精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽,成败得失笑谈中

BUFFETT: Well, my guess is that the revenue and all of that is more or less like I expected. I mean, Wells, right straight through this period has done pretty much exactly what they said they would do and they've made money consistently through it. They've run into much larger losses than anybody anticipated three or four years ago but they can handle them very easily. Last year we talked about 'em having 40 billion of pre-provision income in 2009, and you know, they had it, and that easily handles 20 billion, roughly, of losses.

BECKY: They also issued a lot more shares though, to pay back the government. What did you think of that?BUFFETT: I didn't like it. (Laughs.) No, I mean, the government forced them to issue the shares. The government's done a lot of good things for the economy and net I'm a beneficiary and Berkshire Hathaway is a beneficiary of the things overall they've done. But they cost us real money at Wells Fargo.


JOE KERNEN: Berkshire could be a Dow component. I don't - don't stop at the S&P. We'll get rid of Alcoa or something, ah, I know - that would be great. Hey Warren, the revenue number on Wells was 22.7 and the estimate was I think 21.9. So unlike any of the other banks, I think that's the first one, I mean I didn't look at US Bancorp, but the major ones that we reported on, this is the first one that's beat on the revenue and it was also a profit of eight cents with the TARP repayment, even though the Street was looking for a loss of a penny. So, seems to be a little bit better and the stock is now 29, it's almost up a dollar at this point.

BUFFETT: Wells runs a terrific bank. They're a very customer-oriented bank. They're almost like thousands of community banks when you get right down to it. They have a lot of services they sell for each customer. So their revenues are going to come through. And actually when the stress test was done in the spring of last year, that's where the people evaluating them were way off, was on the revenue number. Wells did not disagree with them on the possible losses number, but they felt that the people just didn't understand the revenue potential, that were looking at them, and I agreed with them. But unfortunately they had to issue a lot of shares in conjunction with that stress test. I don't think Wells was ever going to disappoint on revenue. They have a lot of customers and those customers do a lot of business with them.

Great, keep them coming. A god of 80+ years of age is bound to make wrong calls! He made all the money over the last few years not because of his right calls but rather, his magnitudes and bargaining power! You are giving too much credence to an aging god! Seriously, I will put his B class shares and wait for his inevitable death at opportune point of time. Do others don't dare to do and either prosper or die poor, especially those big guns!

Let me share with you: I either reach my goal or are being wiped out in the end via these issues: DNDN, ELN, BAC, LVS and MGM. Do you dare to imagine a tripple-digit DNDN pps by the end of 2012? For that matter, ELN has the same upside potential whereas ICAD this July should tell all. BAC will lead the economy out of the slump in the end. LVS will benefit from a surging Asia and MGM recovers amid a LV recovery. Big money is made on the long/call side and I regard short-term swings to profit for an increasingly bigger stake in the issues I want to long/call. Any other plays of mine for the short-term are only side kicks.
 
“My determination to achieve this goal is only heightened when I see reports of massive profits and obscene bonuses at some of the very firms who owe their continued existence to the American people,” Obama said Jan. 14 when he announced the Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee. “We want our money back, and we’re going to get it.”

Based on this remark, you are probably right to short the banks. Till yesterday, though, with power shift in Senate.
 
Berkshire B share

After split, the B shares are optionable. You are actually right on shorting B's. However, you must know how to do it.

In general, Berkshire is weak in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Q3 is special if you hear a lot hurricanes coming. Q2 may be weak if there is a good run in May, when the annual meeting is held. Q4 is a wild card, depending on how Q3 works.

So there is seasonality in the stock. It is generally very risky to short it one or two months before annual meeting in May.

As to Buffett's age, it is already being priced into stock price mostly. The fair value of Berkshire should be around 1.2 times its reported book value. It is risky to short it below this level.

If, however, the level is above 1.4, the chance of going lower may be higher.

Personally, I won't try to short B shares too often. It is probably hard to get people excited due to Buffett's age and thus lower chance of being over priced.
 
WFC Q4

WFC recorded $1.9 B MSR gains in non-interest income. I high-lighted this area a few posts ago before earning report. This is a big negative for WFC going forward.

I guess you may want to take a look at fine prints before acting on options.

The reported earnings of JPM and WFC are meaningless if fine prints are not studied carefully....
 
WFC recorded $1.9 B MSR gains in non-interest income. I high-lighted this area a few posts ago before earning report. This is a big negative for WFC going forward.

I guess you may want to take a look at fine prints before acting on options.

The reported earnings of JPM and WFC are meaningless if fine prints are not studied carefully....

Great advice and thank you! Sometimes I move too fast and at other times, I move too slowly. All of these are side kicks but still, it is not fun to lose money, especially when one is mostly right.
 
What a difference one day can make

Regretted very much panicking out of WFC yesterday and realized a big loss. That is the only big bank closed in the green today. My loss there was caused by wrong timing. It is a very strong big bank and I will seek to call some in the days ahead.

Being very busy closing out all my puts positions in the morning: AMAG --- the secondary offer is priced at 48.25, which I see as an institutional support; BAC --- my expectation was for it to get close to 15 and it did with huge volume, the minute I sold the puts, I bought some calls; MGM has HK IPO in the pipe; LVS has MBS opening in March. Both casinos may go down big but their 4QERs are forthcoming, pretty scary stuff to put because of the Macau story. It is better to run with good profits today, especially when I need the winnings to boost my confidence in the newly-adopted strategy. I did not reverse to calls for the casinos yet.

I know I am the greedy type but the year is young, not the best time for greed.

I added DNDN 2011.01 calls and initiated May calls. The LEAP is for holding and the May calls are for a Provenge FDA play. The possibility of getting an early approval relative to the May 1 PDUFA is becoming increasing bigger. I would rather pay a bit more than missing the all-important PR.

Finally, SVA came out with a PR this AM announcing their plan for secondary offering. I will follow through for a Q4ER play when the pricing is known.
 
Volatility has returned

Being extremely low for the past several months, volatility has returned to the market. Markets are never wrong, only players are. In volatile markets, there is no definite trend to follow. As such, the buy and hold type is out of favour and quick in and out type is making the day. Not many tripple-digit moves take place in a year. The period between last March and May witnessed many of those big moves because of politics. Obama's bank proposal has ignited a fierce political and economic debate that will be in play for days to come. Big money is made or lost in volatile markets. Have fun if you are inclined to be a participant; get out of the kitchen if you can't take the heat.

DNDN is my main hold and my stake is getting increasingly bigger. As for any other security, I will switch between calls and puts until volatility dies down again, always reserving a good size of cash for emerging opportunities.
 
Cat: work for you to do

I came across this list of small bio from the JPM Healthcare conference. I am very busy and can't dig into the details. While some are familiar, others are completely strangers. You seem to like doing research and I am giving you this list. Hope you can dig into details like cash position, product sales, clinical trials and product candidates. I will confirm with my own DD after seeing what you find.

As of now, my eyes are on DNDN, ARNA and ELN. I want to get back in to SAV for a Q4ER play and that is about it. Those delivered but unpaid/unreported H1N1 vaccine revenues are really attractive for an ER play (one time off). GNVC has run pretty hard lately, triggered by a series of good news.

To start with, please check out HGSI's market potentials. HGSI ran harder than DNDN last year with their trial results. I don't know about the disease and simply ignored it. I think HGSI deserves a serious look. OGXI also ran crazy but tanked recently.

The list: ALTH, ARIA, CRIS, GERN, JAZZ.

Thanks a lot in advance!
 
HGSI

I think bio industry is good for event-driven option speculation. If you are aware of milestone events, like the ones of DNDN, ARNA etc, please let me know.

According to Value Line, HGSI's takeover by GSK is probably difficult given its recent rise in valuation. HGSI has around $600 M debt with equal amount of cash.

Its main new drug, Benlysta, for lupus probably will gain FDA approval in H1 of 2010. Its cure for hepatitis C, Zalbin, is also making progress. Its third drug is delayed due to FDA request for more information.

HGSI is valued at $4.4B with $250 M revenue (DNDN is at $3.4 B with close to 0 revenue). From investment point of view, the degree of difficulty to make money out of them seems to be pretty high.

However, if there are scheduled events, currently none, they could be good target for speculation using suicidal options.
 
ARIA

This one is interesting given its upcoming results. Haven't looked why it spiked in 2000 - whether it is same drug or a different one.

In September, the independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) of the SUCCEED trial completed the first interim efficacy analysis as specified by the study protocol and recommended that the trial continue to full patient enrollment and completion. The DMC made this recommendation after reviewing the pre-specified statistical analyses and available data on the safety and efficacy of oral ridaforolimus. A second interim efficacy analysis is expected at approximately the end of the first quarter of 2010 based upon approximately two-thirds of the total number of progression-free survival events anticipated in the trial. Final data analysis from the SUCCEED trial is expected in the second half of 2010.
 
ALTH

It seems its drug is already approved by FDA. Commercial potential is hard to measure ...
 
CRIS

All drugs in early stage. Cooperation with DNA. Recently offered shares at $2.50 with warrants to buy 0.25 common at $3.5 for next five years.

Difficult to tell unless substantial insight on its pipelines.
 
GERN & JAZZ

GERN's pipeline is all in early stage, with most advanced at Phase II. It seems to have $2 per share cash but its share price is at around $7.5 already. Doesn't seem to have near-term events.

JAZZ just applies for a new drug that is a type of pain reliever I guess. Doesn't seem to be very exciting drugs and financials don't look strong.
 
Summary

It seems ARIA may have some interesting results this year. If it can schedule announcement, it is good for option play I guess ...
 
For serious investment in medical area, take a look at SYK. This company is superbly managed and is financially very strong.

I haven't figured out its valuation since I don't have much insight on its products. I don't think it is expensive though. Plus, it is a very well managed company, very profitable and its products seem to be diversified enough to take future shocks.

Plus, it is in joint business. Given the old population etc, this is a good area. Let me know of your thoughts. It can't be figured out quickly and needs in-depth look.
 
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