精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

If Democrats lose MS senate election, the health care bill be dead. Any chance of playing on HUM, UNH etc ? Feb call of course.

Also, brkb will be split 50 to 1 on Wed. This will yield to volatility, quite extreme in quarters 3 and 4 downwide and q1/q2 upward etc ...

Thanks a million for all your suggestions. It is the beginning of the year and I would love to have a few winning hands of trading under my belt before going deeper. It is of much more fun to play with house money than hard-earned salary savings. As such, I want to concentrate on my existing positions for now. C reports tomorrow followed by BAC and WFC on Wed. These should give cues regarding how big banks are shaping up. I plan to add to my BAC and WFC puts.

Pretty bad misses of the chances to call BIDU and put GOOG on a political play, though. I think the story has legs to run on but after missing a big run, I am becoming more tentative. I will keep an eye open. The cold comfort is that the market will be open tomorrow, the day after, and the day after ...... Opportunities will present themselves day in and day out. Best of lucks to you in your positions and your life!

 

[lazycatcat]

It is hard to play C I guess.

There is room for downside for WFC, probably to $25 range, especially in current quarter. WFC booked close to $1.5 B hedging gains last quarter due to its MSR risk management. JPM had a loss in Q4 in this area and no matter how WFC scores here would be a loss to WFC: A big gains indicate risk taking by WFC and a loss reduces earnings.

Plus, WFC has to cover TARP loss and potentially add to credit reserves. TARP loss may already be priced into current valuation, though.

Surprise from WFC can't be ruled out as above items should be known to shrewed investors/speculators already.

Not sure about BAC. It will probably be floating around at current leve ...

 

[加京游子]

It is hard to play C I guess.

There is room for downside for WFC, probably to $25 range, especially in current quarter. WFC booked close to $1.5 B hedging gains last quarter due to its MSR risk management. JPM had a loss in Q4 in this area and no matter how WFC scores here would be a loss to WFC: A big gains indicate risk taking by WFC and a loss reduces earnings.

Plus, WFC has to cover TARP loss and potentially add to credit reserves. TARP loss may already be priced into current valuation, though.

Surprise from WFC can't be ruled out as above items should be known to shrewed investors/speculators already.

Not sure about BAC. It will probably be floating around at current leve ...

I treat C as a barometer rather than an actual play. I won't touch C until US Treasury sells its stake, which was locked in until the end of March according to the TARP-repayment agreement.

I will surely exit BAC at 15 and WFC at 25 if they get there (the TARP-repayment related offer prices) and reverse to calls, provided the market offers no surprises. Depending on market conditions tomorrow, I am to either add the 17 and 29 strike puts or initiate 16 and 28 puts. That is only a plan. If C's ER provides no clear clue, I may simply watch.

 

[lazycatcat]

Personally, I think last Friday's loss is abnormal. It might be due to technical reasons. We will see tomorrow....

 

[lazycatcat]

We probably can do private deals someday. I am willing to sell WFC 28 or 29 puts to you.

As a matter of fact, I will sell covered calls of WFC at $29. I don't have a margin account and thus can't sell puts. Therefore, I can only do the mirror image of covered calls.

If I am to touch next big bank, it will be JPM. I am not sure about BAC's new management. BAC is neither JPM in terms of investment banking nor WFC in terms of consumer banking. Yet, its exposure to derivatives is probably second to none. Any incompetence in this area can cost BAC dearly in the long run.

C is very toxic. Its off-balance sheet exposure and derivatives are probably not comprehensible to any outsiders. I think C is buying time till it can be substantially reduced or sold.

 

[lazycatcat]

By the way, when I say doing private deals, I don't mean one of us will lose. Actually, both of us can win.

Imagin I sold you $29 puts for $1.66 premium. My cost would be $27.34 and you would gain say if price goes down to $26.

I will suffer a temporary loss by having to buy WFC from you at $29 (with real cost of $27.34). I can turn around and sell March or April call again at $29 for a decent premium.

Due to our difference in perspectives, both of us can win. That is the magic of option trading ...

 

[加京游子]

Personally, I think last Friday's loss is abnormal. It might be due to technical reasons. We will see tomorrow....

Great we see things differently and that is exactly the motivation behind idea exchanges. Tomorrow and Wed. shall provide cues regarding the market direction. I view any rally as a dead cat bounce and I wish for an up open so as to add to my puts positions. I was never as convinced as now in regards to the market direction, mind you my existing stake is not very big, about 25% of my working capital spread over 5 positions.

 

[加京游子]

By the way, when I say doing private deals, I don't mean one of us will lose. Actually, both of us can win.

Imagin I sold you $29 puts for $1.66 premium. My cost would be $27.34 and you would gain say if price goes down to $26.

I will suffer a temporary loss by having to buy WFC from you at $29 (with real cost of $27.34). I can turn around and sell March or April call again at $29 for a decent premium.

Due to our difference in perspectives, both of us can win. That is the magic of option trading ...

I will go for a win-win deal any time of any day, my friend. The only problem we may face is tax implications, which you or I can't have solutions. Since we see things so differently, let's deal in the open market, as soon as 9:30am tomorrow.

 

[lazycatcat]

Just a thought. If Demo loses the one vote in Senate, the administration will be a lame duck, meaning financial fees and regulations won't be able to pass easily.

This may cause a rally ! Just a thought, though, indicating how difficult it is to short stocks in short-run based on macro pictures ...

 

[加京游子]

Just a thought. If Demo loses the one vote in Senate, the administration will be a lame duck, meaning financial fees and regulations won't be able to pass easily.

This may cause a rally ! Just a thought, though, indicating how difficult it is to short stocks in short-run based on macro pictures ...

Highly impressed with your picks (I see a tremendous amount of work behind these picks) and thanks for your suggestions. From WFC, DECK, BOH to HUM, they are all great long-term long candidates. Also impressed with the way you infer from politics.

I will stick with the way I feel about this ER season. Since it is a new strategy, I only back up my belief with bets mildly and will re-evaluate afterwards. Conclusions are only days away.

 

[加京游子]

C ER out, PM reactions were rather mild

The market doesn't seem to get much out of this ER (Futures in deep red though). Bio in play: GNVC inked cooperation and licensing agreement with Novartis, pps flying; SAC Capital (Stevie Cohen) filed late Friday night (13G) that it has owned 5.9% of DNDN. Will this bump DNDN up? No PM trading yet.

 

[newer]

PRIMECAP Management owns 4,554,500 dndn
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=PRIMECAP+Management

this company has 56459 mil managed fund.

The market doesn't seem to get much out of this ER (Futures in deep red though). Bio in play: GNVC inked cooperation and licensing agreement with Novartis, pps flying; SAC Capital (Stevie Cohen) filed late Friday night (13G) that it has owned 5.9% of DNDN. Will this bump DNDN up? No PM trading yet.

 

[加京游子]

真邪了门

等我把BAC和WFC的puts加完了，DOW给我个3位数的涨，BAC和WFC涨，连LVS和MGM也涨，真把我搞晕了。要不是DNDN也涨，我可要跳楼了。

想加的加满了，现在不看了，明天见分晓, 看你们还能绿多久！

 

[加京游子]

Samsung settled with Rambus

RMBS surges AH --- seems out of my reach now.

The Damned market screwed me big time today. I consistently made mistakes in hesitating to get into BAC and WFC last Friday. Reflecting on that, I jumped in with both feet at the open today, buying at the high again!

Well, positions are taken，waiting for judgement tomorrow. Win or lose, I did what I felt right.

 

[lazycatcat]

RMBS

If you are really serious about RMBS and follow each suite, I think it is probably worth shorting RMBS sometime. I don't recommend it but keeping an eye on it is probably worth while.

This settlement is hardly what is expected. Only $100 M per year for next 5 years with initial payment of $200 M. RMBS is hardly making any money yet its share price is at $2.2 B.

I thought Samsung was their big fish and settlement would be in the range of billions. Maybe Micron is the big fish ? If similar settlement is done with Micro and another company starts with H, RMBS is probably a dead fish pretty soon in the future.

I probably miss something but RMBS is the company that is a myth to me in terms of stock valuation.