Cat: for unannounced data, I agree with you. Even with that, there are earlier trial results based on which one can study to make judgements. HGSI was a complete shock to the bio world last year. All earlier trials pointed to a negative result and as such, there was no runup at all based on expectations leading to the release of top line data. OGXI surprised the bio world with positive results of a phase II trial presented at the ASCO but the pps has retraced back to 15 from the high of 40.
Regarding DNDN, I beg to completely differ. I studied the company since 2005 when I first acquired some pitiful shares, then traded in and out frequently, sometimes for gains but other times for losses. It not only wiped my gigantic paper profits out but also gave me a mountain of margin debt May 10, 2007 when TDWaterhouse liquidated my account. I overcame the devastation, live to fight for another day, and maintain my conviction. I dare to tell you that I know nothing less about the company than the CEO and CFO, saved insider info. I truly believe DNDN is a biotech power house in the making, although the pathway won't be smooth sailing all the time. Granted, that is conditional on the approval of Provenge by the FDA. I assign a probabibility of 0.95-0.99 to Provenge winning FDA marketing licensure this time around, barring the FDA not being bought again or a manufacturing facility inspection failure. One doesn't live to meet many paradigm-shifting revolutions in a lifetime and I am just happy that I have the chance to either prosper or die poor with little Debby. The only regret I am suffering tremendously now is the huge loss I suffered in the last three months of last year (chiefly on SVA) and consequently, my stake in DNDN isn't big enough to realize my dreams in 3-5 years should my expectations of its performance be met/exceeded. Despite it is all water under the bridge now, I still wish in my mind I had put into DNDN what I put into SVA, my most stubbornly stupid move of last year as a result of grossly over-estimating the damage H1N1 may cause. SVA's damned CEO is simply an incompetent businessman. He may be a genius in making vaccines but simply put, the entire management team is a collection of incompetent idiots when it comes to Wall Street. I closed my entire position in one shot upon receiving an email reply to my inquiry, saving a pitiful amount of working capital. How often do we get to see a time span of 3 months between a secondary offering PR and the actual bought deal PR? SVA is absolutely the first time ever for me. That was an open invitation for secondary offer participants to short the stock to the ground. I very much regretted that I did not build a short position after closing my calls postioin. If my dream book is ever put to print, Part One will have another chapter on my SVA failure.
Even with my pititul stake, DNDN to me is what was Dell to Peter Lynch, scaled back by a factor of 1 million or 10 million or 100 million, of course. By May, I expected to be either completely wiped out again or have serious working capital to have fun in the market.
I don't expect DNDN to pose another one-day %age surge ever again like what happened last April, even with Nuevenge's Phase III trial success (5-8 years out if it ever gets off the ground). There is simply nothing left to do any furhter except to sit tight (add stake if and when my hands can get hold to cash) and wait for the FDA to make its dutiful ruling. Conditional on Provenge's approval, I will move on to the MOA of breast cancer and ovarian cancer (Nuevenge's targets), and I would greatly appreciate help from anyone with a medical background.
I fear DOW going below 10K now for my front-month calls positions and I am powerless to do anything else but to wait for the invisible hand to hand down the ruling.
My personal view is that when it comes to speculation, there isn't one formulae working for everybody. And that is exactly the nature and fun of Mr. Market. I simply want to be the only owner of my moves, win or lose. I perfer the term speculation to investment and speculator to investor. The overwhelming majority of market participants become investors involuntarily rather than voluntarily. I am trying my very best not to become an involuntary investor.
