精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

The implied volatility of DNDN in Feb options seems to be low, given the speculation nature of the stock. It will probably remain low before May.

I will keep an eye on it for sure to see if there is a bet on the impossibles.

 

[加京游子]

The implied volatility of DNDN in Feb options seems to be low, given the speculation nature of the stock. It will probably remain low before May.

I will keep an eye on it for sure to see if there is a bet on the impossibles.

I have already made my moves on DNDN based on my own expectations guarding against the unexpected and unexpetable surprises (early approval). For my latest swing entry, I have over-paid by a wide margin but I was fully prepared for that.

At this level, the most I expect to get upon an FDA approval letter is no more than a double for the pps, factoring in a short squeeze and some over shotting. If the expected positive ruling comes down in early May per the PDUFA date, May calls will enjoy the most upside and I got some.

 

[lazycatcat]

Barron just had an article on DNDN's potential drug. Reads quite promising.... I wish this do well for you coming May ...

 

[加京游子]

Barron just had an article on DNDN's potential drug. Reads quite promising.... I wish this do well for you coming May ...

Thanks a lot for your good-will wishes! The Barron article got some important facts (timing) wrong --- way underestimate the market potentials upon approval. I have already made my commitment. It is a waiting game now and I do have the patience to wait but will surely take a pleasant surprise (early approval).

 

[加京游子]

Highest close for DNDN ever if memory serves me correct

This baby is treating me right and the pps appreciation is not built on volume spikes. For long positions, I prefer baby steps in terms of both the pps and volume.

My two banks disappoint badly, especially WFC. This breakdown is yet another surprise. A round trip is simply not fun. My calls lost nearly 50% in the last two days! But there is always tomorrow and here is to hope for a better tomorrow!

GNVC and NVLT are simply churning, waiting for big news.

 

[lazycatcat]

WFC

We might be on two different sides of out of money call transaction as far as WFC is concerned. Here is my personal take on Mr. Market's mind as far as WFC is concerned.

WFC's medium price target is around $40 and this requires allowance for credit loss to be in 1.5% range, down from current 2.7%. This may happen later this year or sometime next year.

The obstacle to this target is 1). Continued recession or worsening commercial RE. 2). Rising interest rate and 3). hostile regulation causing WFC to shrink balance sheet and thus earning power.

Barring extra ordinary events, WFC at $25 ($125 B market cap and close to 1:1 of book) is probably lower edge of price band while $33 (~ P/E of 14) might be the upper edge of the band. Without earning support, it is probably hard to go above $30.

This reading makes directional bet quite difficult unless price is touching the edges or it is earning report months.

Just my personal take. WFC is a good company and long-term earning power is pretty strong. It is interesting (and potentially rewarding) for such company to be under uncertainty ...

 

[加京游子]

We might be on two different sides of out of money call transaction as far as WFC is concerned. Here is my personal take on Mr. Market's mind as far as WFC is concerned.

WFC's medium price target is around $40 and this requires allowance for credit loss to be in 1.5% range, down from current 2.7%. This may happen later this year or sometime next year.

The obstacle to this target is 1). Continued recession or worsening commercial RE. 2). Rising interest rate and 3). hostile regulation causing WFC to shrink balance sheet and thus earning power.

Barring extra ordinary events, WFC at $25 ($125 B market cap and close to 1:1 of book) is probably lower edge of price band while $33 (~ P/E of 14) might be the upper edge of the band. Without earning support, it is probably hard to go above $30.

This reading makes directional bet quite difficult unless price is touching the edges or it is earning report months.

Just my personal take. WFC is a good company and long-term earning power is pretty strong. It is interesting (and potentially rewarding) for such company to be under uncertainty ...

Cat: thanks a lot for sharing your read on WFC. I not only agree with you but also think you are on the conservative side in medium- and and longer-term pps expectations. As far as commercial banking is concerned, WFC is absolutely the best among the 4 big ones. C has largely sold off its investment banking business now. BAC is taking a different business model and I like its investment banking more than anything else (Merrrill). Personally, I am giving year end to next March for the Urate to dip below 9% when banking earnings can start to normalize but Mr. Market tends to lead by 6-9 month. Until then, I won't establish long-term holding positions. I want to trade front-month options both ways. I lost in my first WFC puts due to impatience (and the difference is one day). My calls doubled by last Friday but greed did me in again (I set a target for a triple). If somehow WFC can go to 25, I will go long (TARP repayment secondary offering sets the floor, IMO). Should DNDN perform, it will more than make up with any losses.

I will be your WFC co-long in about 9 months. Keep an eye on C. I want to get in after two key developments: US Treasury sells out its stake and a reverse split.

 

[加京游子]

My roadmap to DNDN

I expect it to surge above 60 upon Provenge approval. Trading will be crazy in the first three days following the news --- a 25% swing can happen in minutes and there will be many such moments. It can gain another 5-15 should ROW partnership be announced shortly after the approval.

Here are my plans going forward: sell my trading position on the news and trade in and out both ways for the first 3 days. My now out-of-the-money calls will be deep in the money and trading will be inactive. I will need a huge bridge loan from my broker to exercise my calls and trade. With the calls as hedge, I will short (actually only selling my exercisable calls). With puts in place, I will long to log in profits. I will own options as hedges and trade shares (much more liquid). Establish a much bigger line of position for the long term when the pps settles around 40. I am giving the end of 2011 for DNDN to gain a triple-digit pps. As such, I will roll my 2011 LEAPs into 2012 LEAPs at opportune times.

 

[加京游子]

10 biotech expected to release key trial results in the 1st half of the year

For those who are interested in bio releasing key trial results, the following is the link to 10 of them.

Cat: I have already got NVLT and GNVC. There are other small ones I am interested. Please do some DD on these and share. When it comes to DD, I pay a lot of attention to previous trial results (Phase 2) and market potentials.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/sto...watch.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for the link. MDVN seems most interesting at first glance. I will take a deeper look at it first and then the others ...

Mr. Market is in mode again now. Not a bad idea ...

 

[加京游子]

Happy Year of the Tiger in advance to everyone!

I will be away from Monday and won't be back until the end of the month. This is badly needed after consistently making mistakes in executions and missing a ton of profits. My brokerage account would have been completely different should I have kept all the puts positions. But there is no woulda, shoulda, coulda in the market. The year is still young and there will be plenty of opportunities ahead.

All the very best of lucks to all!

 

[lazycatcat]

Jia, Happy Chinese New Year !

Hope you bring back new ideas after the break. After a historic crash, current market condition is definitely very interesting.

Hope the Year of Tiger is a good start to recovery and then gradually to glory in the years to come.

 

[加京游子]

Jia, Happy Chinese New Year !

Hope you bring back new ideas after the break. After a historic crash, current market condition is definitely very interesting.

Hope the Year of Tiger is a good start to recovery and then gradually to glory in the years to come.

Cat: I don't lack ideas but working capital. I was planning to close all my sizable front-month calls positions on BAC, WFC and LVS before my trip but Mr. market moved in opposite to my expectations and I decided to hold them. I asked a friend and was told that I have access to my TradeFreedom account. Last Friday's unemployment report was a mixed bag of information. The job loss was minimal but Mr. Market expected a small gain. The Urate dropped significantly due to declines in the participation rate. For a correction, I feel Last Friday's low was the short-term local bottom. I speculated correctly again but did not make my moves exactly according to my own expectations (built my calls positions too soon again). Holding these positions may ruin my well-deserved break away from Mr. Market --- a very unpleasant thing to do. This time around, I am an involuntary position holder.

The very best of lucks to you and yours!

 

[lazycatcat]

Have a good trip, Jia.

Company based idea is probably more interesting than forecast of macro indicators. I think individual investors are at great disadvantage of doing trading based on these indicators in comparing with professional traders with Bloomberg terminals and an army of supporting staff.

 

[lazycatcat]

DNDN

I guess the reported financials are meaningless as the FDA approval is the key ...