精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

A typo. I mean I haven't seen Buffett drift yet ...

 

[加京游子]

What is Munber's speech at AGM ? You mean Charlie Munger, who is Buffett's long-term partner ?

I definitely share some of your feeling on Buffett. His investment decision looks shaky sometimes. Plus, his frequency of appearing on CNBC is definitely increasing in recent years. When a person becomes older, he definitely becomes more stubborn. I think Buffett is not exempt from some natural laws.

Also, when a person is being praised or flattered for too long, he or she may also drift. This could be quite lethal to key decision makers.

So, you are absolutely right that blind following is dangerous. That is why when investing in Brkb, the question is not how fast it can grow. Rather, it is what discount one should look for when buying the stock.

A few years ago, my standard is 20% over book value. If I am to purchase now, it is at book value. Buffett's purchase of Burlington is similar to Graham's purchase of AT&T when he was to wind down the partnership. By the way, there is 20% of book value that is the deferred tax of accumulated gains. This is where 20% is from.

Above said, however, I have seen signs that Buffett is carrying away. He is very stubborn but he is also stubborn to his standards of act. So far, he has been doing superbly well in this financial crisis. After reading his works for a few years, I think I have some judgment on Buffett and Berkshire.

I really like to hear negative comments on Buffett since I may be blindsided somehow ... I think SEC investigation or even Senate hearing of Buffett can pour extra cold water on him, as a balance to praises he is used to hear ...

Yes, Charlie Munger --- Charlie is one informal way for Richard!

http://www.fool.com/investing/value...ungers-thoughts-on-just-about-everything.aspx

You are talking about WB's characters. I know absolutely nothing about him, apart from the headlines, and will never attempt to even say one word on that front. I am referring to the suspicion of his long-standing market manipulation through the vast network of resources at his deploy. So far there is no direct evidence but nobody can deny his influence over and his control of the credit rating agencies and big brokerage houses.

Like I said, I have no position in BRKB. But one day down the road, we may be on opposite sides of a trade, conditional on that you are still a long holder.

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for the link. Charlie is always very straightforward while Buffett is always sugar coated. Buffett is actually also a very great sales person. However, they think alike.

I have no problem shorting Berkshire, especially now B share options are available. Buffett shorted it big time in 1998 via General RE purchase.

Going forward, there might not be chances to short Berkshire as market probably won't put much premium on its book value. We will see ...

I hope I can know all the models Charlie has in his mind. These models shall be great to spot good investment opportunities.

 

[加京游子]

看看你的ITMN,Do still you hold your ITMN PUT ? 今天晚上你就准备辞职报告和做退休计划吧。

由衷地祝贺你今年BIO最大的两条鱼都你给逮住了。

衷心地祝贺你的AEZS (AEZ.TO)! That was indeed very impressive in a big-down market!

And thanks a lot for the heads up on MSN. No, I did not get in for 2 reasons: 1）I don't act on any tips whereever that may come from; and 2) I don't play with Phases 1 and 2 candidates. It took me a rather lengthy period and hefty prices to have my principles in place. I fully intend to stay on the course. But I greatly appreciate the sharing. Keep them coming and thanks in advance! Whenever I deviate from my principles by temptations, I lose money/equity, big and fast. It is extremely hard to fight off temptations and I have been waging a tough war against myself since my monumental loss with SVA last year.

Again, sincere congratulations on your success with AEZS!

 

[加京游子]

Can the IMF and euro finance ministers catch shorts with their pants down?????

Announcement any minute now, eagerly awaiting!!!!!!!!

 

[lazycatcat]

The announced 600 B is hardly enough I think. The crisis is probably not financial but more social and political. It would be a surprise if Greek would accept the sacrifice to pay off the debt. When it is able to hold the whole Europe as collateral, why bother ...

The irony in Europe, in contrast to US, is that good countries are bailing out bad countries that people in good countries don't care as much as their own. Therefore, the unlimited infusion of liquidity is probably not feasible in Europe as it is in US. It wouldn't be a surprise if more attacks are mounted on Euro and eventually cause major political events.

The fatal flaw in Euro is now quite obvious and its existence in current form is really questionable. Frankly speaking, letting Greece default is probably a much better approach down the road. A heavy price needs to be demonstrated in order to prod people to act. A fake safety net shall only make things worse yet with same eventual failure.

The current global crisis is essentially a crisis on fiat money. A lot of intelligence is needed how to preserve value of assets, represented as fiat money ...

 

[加京游子]

The announced 600 B is hardly enough I think. The crisis is probably not financial but more social and political. It would be a surprise if Greek would accept the sacrifice to pay off the debt. When it is able to hold the whole Europe as collateral, why bother ...

The irony in Europe, in contrast to US, is that good countries are bailing out bad countries that people in good countries don't care as much as their own. Therefore, the unlimited infusion of liquidity is probably not feasible in Europe as it is in US. It wouldn't be a surprise if more attacks are mounted on Euro and eventually cause major political events.

The fatal flaw in Euro is now quite obvious and its existence in current form is really questionable. Frankly speaking, letting Greece default is probably a much better approach down the road. A heavy price needs to be demonstrated in order to prod people to act. A fake safety net shall only make things worse yet with same eventual failure.

The current global crisis is essentially a crisis on fiat money. A lot of intelligence is needed how to preserve value of assets, represented as fiat money ...

I am still awaiting the widely anticipated public announcement! Any report of any figure prior to the public annoucement from the horse's mouth is nothing but hearsay and rumours!

You may have valid points but the world doesn't work in the way my small brain or yours can possibly envision, my friend! Euro-zone won't stand to be reduced to a wild jungle and that is one thing I am sure of! Any thinking otherwise will inevitably be taken to the shredder!

From a selfish perspective, I would love the market to tank and tank and tank as I am comfortably sitting on 95% cash as of last Friday's close. Yes, that would render my boatloads of LVS/MGM May calls worthless. And I am willing to go down with my ships (sorry, I am no captains but a small sailor only). But that is only a small price to pay relative to the great entries points. However, the world doesn't revolve around your or my wishes! The world needs optimism not doom and gloom! Mr. Market will render its judgement.

 

[加京游子]

Euro TARP out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is this enough to keep shorts up all night? Is their sweet (pipe)dream turning into a nightmare? Mr. Market will render its rightful judgement! I am fully expecting and intending to get back what I lost on LVS/MGM last week and then some!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[newer]

Federal Reserve opens credit line to Europe

Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, are also involved in the effort.

The Bank of Japan will be considering similar action soon

 

[加京游子]

Federal Reserve opens credit line to Europe

Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, are also involved in the effort.

The Bank of Japan will be considering similar action soon

Thanks a lot for sharing these additional info. It will be a concerted effort across the continents because the world is so interconected now --- people, goods, and especially capital, move at lightning speed.

Just woke up for a glass of water. Futures are exploding to the roof and PM trading seems to start earlier, way earlier. What I see is so encouraging that I have to fight with myself to get back to sleep. Can't wait for the market to open!

Just got a felling that big-time shorts may have covered and they will surely make good money on the way up too but small-fry shorts who are holding the bag may get margin calls soon.

 

[加京游子]

LVS post-ER rally starts today!

With a gangbuster 1QER and a high-octane CC, the rally should have started last Friday but Mr. market has its way to set up a bigger bear trap to suck in sucker shorts. This high-beta money printing machine for longs (some call it a casino, haha) will crush shorts' brokerage accounts with no sympathy nor mercy, leaving behind only margin calls! It will take its little cousin, MGM, along the fun ride too!

I want 23 for lunch and 24 for dinner today! And I would love to have 25 for breakfast, 26 for lunch and 27 for dinner tomorrow! At least, a man deserves to dream on, huh?

Being kindly-hearted and nicely-natured, I always feel sorry for people who lost money despite that I view people on the other side of my trades as enemies, big or small. With LVS/MGM this time around, I am merciless and won't shed even one drop of tear over their losses. Calling them casinos (a large chunk of their revenues are indeed derived from casinos) and bragging about a nickle, dime or quarter profits deserve a punishment with no mercy!

This is getting exciting, folks!

 

[加京游子]

Got paid to nibble on DNDN today

How did everybody's day go?

I sold 20 June 41p at 2.25 and 20 2011 Jan 50p at 11.6. Those proceeds were deployed to buy 50 2012 Jan 90C at 3.6 (I may be able to buy some around 3.4 but the MM did not want to sell me 50 at one shot for that price. I did not have the patience to wait all day long to get 10 or 20 contracts. Lunch time is my window of trading and I only trade at the market), with some cash left over. I truly believe selling those puts will pocket me free cash but they do lock up some serious buying power. I also sold some LVS and HGSI puts last Wed (very bad timing in hindsight!). Those lock up some buying power too. As such, I won't be able to do much shopping until the cash sitting on the ITMN bear spread is freed by OE. Some dry powder is reserved for the unexpected.

Extremely happy to see one of the most balanced days in my measly collection!

 

[加京游子]

AGEN/AEZS: the next DNDN?

The FDA approval of Provenge has turned biotech into a magnet. Plenty of people are trying their best to hunt for the next DNDN. Oh well, there is only one DNDN and DNDN is the next DNDN. It is very safe to take that to the bank!

However, there are compelling stories emerging on the biotech horizon, very compelling indeed. AGEN and AEZS are two among the herd that I am aware of.

AGEN --- I have mentioned about it many posts ago. I bought it in anticipation of tandem trading with DNDN in the eve of the expected FDA approval. It did surge some 20% the day after Provenge was approved but I did not trade it. And the pop did not last beyond one day. It went from around 1.35 all the way down to .9 during the spetacular market slide last week. I thought it will be a dog but surprisingly this dog wakes up much sooner than expected, wags and barks with some force and velocity. No time to post my detailed DD. I have known AGEN and Garo Amen (CEO) since my ELN time (a long time ago now) --- GA was ELN BOD chair at the time. There are plenty of rumours going around but no official word from the horse' mouth yet. And I only base my decisions on confirmed facts, not rumours.

AEZS (AEZ.TO) --- Green158 was very nice to give me the lead the night Provenge was approved on MSN. Thanks a lot again, dude! A friend of mine also owned it from pretty low price, sold last Friday for more than a double and told me about it over the weekend. I did not get in around 1.2 for reasons I posted earlier. I was wrong taking it as a Phase I/II candidate. I have burnt a bit late-night oil over the last few days. It has KERX as the licensee and 3 Phase III, 3 Phase II, and 3 Phase I candidates for oncology and endocrinology. That is a hell of a rich pipeline with great potentials. IMO, it is grossly undervalued and I will have a hand in it soon (yesterday's little pullback is very healthy for the pps going forward, consolidating bases after a very nice news-driven runup).

ASCO schedule is not out yet. Can they turn out to be this year's ASCO big winners? I remain keenly interested.

Let me repeat again. I intend to share only. It goes without saying that these low-priced biotechs are extremely volatile. It is your money to take care of. Do your own DD before getting into anything. But if you do follow my leads and make good profits, I would appreciate your coming on board and say thank you (take me out for gourmet dinner would be even better, huh!)!

Volatility (high beta) is the name of the game I play. Whereever options are available, I play options too. These are the mother of all risks. They are not for the heart of faint. Please don't follow my plays --- I won't be responsible for your financial losses/emotional stress!

Best of lucks, everyone!

 

[nepean_01]

券商看好DNDN盈利前景

券商Rodman and Renshaw指出，Dendreon(DNDN)已經發佈了一季度的業績報告，而根據券商的預計，公司應當擁有足夠的現金來維持其運營，直至公司能夠盈利。券商指出，公司的管理層已經在產品價格以及最初12個月的銷售潛力這方面提供了更多的詳細信息。 而基於公司產品與治療相關的9.3萬美元售價，券商計算出該公司第一年裡的銷售收入將超過1.75億美元。券商同時還對大型藥企的5筆收購交易的收入比狀況進行了分析。 券商表示，按公司在產品Provenge上能夠獲得的最高收入22.5億美元打8.5折後的9倍計算，公司的總市值將達95億美元，大約折合每股70美元 --

 

[加京游子]

券商Rodman and Renshaw指出，Dendreon(DNDN)已經發佈了一季度的業績報告，而根據券商的預計，公司應當擁有足夠的現金來維持其運營，直至公司能夠盈利。券商指出，公司的管理層已經在產品價格以及最初12個月的銷售潛力這方面提供了更多的詳細信息。 而基於公司產品與治療相關的9.3萬美元售價，券商計算出該公司第一年裡的銷售收入將超過1.75億美元。券商同時還對大型藥企的5筆收購交易的收入比狀況進行了分析。 券商表示，按公司在產品Provenge上能夠獲得的最高收入22.5億美元打8.5折後的9倍計算，公司的總市值將達95億美元，大約折合每股70美元 --

Thanks a lot for sharing this, really appreciate it!

But let me tell you that the entire fleet of WS analysts were so repeatedly and consistently wrong about DNDN (the power of big money, of course, played a big role in that) that I would really advise you not to give any credents to their analysis if you are going to invest in DNDN. There has been one and only one exception and that is David Miller. I don't subscribe to his news letter, BSR, because I feel I know no less about DNDN than him --- to his monumental credit, he did advise to buy puts to guard against the possibility of corruption bought by big money --- I wish I had listened that time! Apart from the May 2007 wipeout (man-made), I have not been wrong even once with DNDN since my first entry back in 2005! I would not have sold out if it was not for the selfish MG's unacceptable sale of 70%, which altogether killed the short-squeeze momentum. Back in March, I had several email exchanges with some people reading this thread about DNDN. And when I rolled my 2011 Jan calls to May, I knew exactly what I was doing (I never thought about buying insurance either). I missed about 1/2M profits last April selling my May calls to get shares and sell puts prior to the data release (I missed badly but that was a calculated move after a long weekend soul searching to avoid another wipeout and I phoned my buddy about my thinking. He felt that was a prudent move too. We can't judge solely by the end result. My selling ITMN 25p missed me 15 points too.). I posted immediately after my sale Tuesday last Week that I would re-enter around 45 or after a secondary whichever comes first (not on the way down but on the way back up and if this sounds strange, so be it! Is it not cheaper to buy at 41.xx than 45? You may ask, right? Well, I have my way of doing things and that is about all I can say!). I am only a little back in because my cash is tied up with ITMN spreads. I have already posted my transactions yesterday. It took me a wipeout, a potential early retirement and a change of lifestyle to stay with DNDN. I am not about to quit in the beginning of a fun game!

Best of lucks to you and all!

p.s. I phoned my buddy after I sold out Tuesday last week and joked that I would buy equal number of puts and make a killing. He laughed and laughed and laughed. Then he said categorily that I am 100% confident you are right about making a killing buying puts but I know you won't do it --- your head says, yes, do it but your heart says, no, don't do it. And I know your heart wins over your head. What a buddy, huh? Oh well, I am not a cold-blooded and emotionless trader, eyeing nothing but money in life! In that sense, I can never be a successful trader! I will not have any trouble putting LVS if and when I see the opportunity but I swear to anyone that I will never put DNDN! I view it as my third baby and I want to see it growing up and maturing as healthily as my son and daughter, helping sick men and women all along although the pps movements won't listen to my wishes but that of the deep-pocket big boys!

To me, DNDN is way more than an investment --- it is a dream and a lifestyle! When I am all done, I will put a 6-figure back in it and then wait, postponing all my real dreams in life for as long as it takes! Wish me good luck, everyone!