精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

Do you mind posing AF's link ? He must have a website he publishes but it seems to be changing all the time.

If you believe in LVS, it is a good idea to write covered calls while waiting. The premium is pretty high (indicating high volatility perceived by market of course). MGM could be a turn-around but its debt load is too heavy.

I am very cautious on APPY based on what I have read. The threshold is pretty high to beat current procedures. Plus, there might be a lot work to do to advertise it even if approved by FDA. I personally won't choose this as a battle ground but you may have insight based on your experiences.

I think VVUS might be a better candidate for battle coming July ...

Go to VVUS/HGSI/AMLN and you can see his list.

I am determined to get back what I lost with LVS for this big trade from LVS with a combination of LEAP owning, core holding, share trading, covered calls writing and naked puts writing. It will surely take a while but I am very confident I will get back the loss with good interests. I will employ the same strategy with DNDN. There are only two stocks out there that I am very comfortable with owning at the present. They are DNDN and LVS. BAC and MGM will be only a sidekicks. BAC and MGM were my options plays last year (I lost a lot in the end).

My mind is made up to fight this APPY battle and my stake is high. I have rolled my May calls into June a few days ago after calling the company IR/consultant. The risk is very high --- my DD says 7/8 or 1.5-2 upon trial results news. The 510(k) filing and the FDA decision is Step 2 after passing Step 1. This is a calculated fight --- the reward is very sweet while the risk is very high but at this point, I can sustain a big loss.

VVUS? I am not comfortable with their safety from Day 1 and that has not changed ever since. I may pick my time to fight this battle, very possibly with a strangle entered at different points in time. My strategy may be the same as in ITMN. I will see. But again, I may let it pass. Have to restrain myself from fighting on too many fronts. After LVS, DNDN and ITMN, I want to tune down my options plays anyway. Holding DNDN, LVS and HGSI will be my main stake while others will be more or less sidekicks. Picking the good battlegrounds is a bit easier now as they won't be my major plays (after APPY).

 

[加京游子]

It looks like another bloody day ahead

At this level, I can't put any stock but the selling and downward pressure may continue. I am staying on the sideline to avoid catching another sharp falling knife.

This senseless selling is no doubt creating great buying opportunities down the road but bottom fishing can be costly. A bottom can never be pre-defined until being confirmed (downward trend is reversed). Falling prices are no indication of bottoms. Look for signs of a reversal. Miss is better than loss; being late is better than wrong.

 

[加京游子]

Don't second guess Mr. Market

This feels worse than Feb./early March last year. There were big downs and big ups then, only straight big downs now. Longs see severe equity erosion day after day after day. I did not see this coming and paid a hefty price for being wrong --- not only my calls expire but also my sold puts go higher and higher (implying the underlying shares I will be put Saturday are getting deeper and deeper under water). The cold comfort is that my long positions (sold puts) are only partial. Won't deploy the cash until a clear trend reversal is in sight and confirmed. A fundamentalist has no place in this market environment. Shorts are making a killing but being born an optimistic, I rarely short/put. Watch bears having fun from the sideline.

This market will turn, make no mistake about it! And when it turns, it will roar! Wish I can see the turning catalyst!

 

[加京游子]

It would be easier to work with DOW 10K, S&P 1050 and oil 65

These are the round-number levels I have in mind for re-entry when I went mostly cash (largely driven by a special event, being lucky I might add. In hindsight and as an after-thought, I have to thank the selfish MG for making me to sell my DNDN May 45 calls at 8.95 with conviction. I would otherwise have not sold out.). But I did not follow my own disciplines. Not only did I not take a lot off the LVS/MGM winning table, but I also significantly added and partially went in/back in others, sigh.

I see the passing of the financial reform bill as a macro catalyst for a turnaround as the uncertainty is gradually taken out. Inflation threat is not in the horizon and thus interest rate hikes are months away. But it is still an uncertain time. I will start nibbling my way back in and average down (I generally hate throwing good money after bad). Averaging down plays are conviction plays and I do have a couple on hand. But it is not time to bet the farm yet. Special event-driven plays are exceptions, of course!

 

[加京游子]

My Waterloo of the year

BAC, LVS and MGM calls expire (a truckload of them), heavy loss!

Will be put the following tomorrow:

APPY at 5 (cost = 3.4, puts sold at 1.6)
LVS at 24 (cost = 22.62, puts sold at 1.38)
HGSI at 27 (cost = 25.88, puts sold at 1.12)

All severely under water. Will aggressively average down on LVS and HGSI --- really hate this. If Mr. Market wants LVS to go for a round trip, I am determined to do it all over again.

DNDN at pre-approval level! Really beyond my wildest imagination. I am also determined to do it all over again.

These are conviction long-term plays, going for the killing or bust! Come hell or high water!

How to proceed with APPY depends on hurdle 1: trial results; and hurdle 2: the FDA ruling.

It appears DOW will dip below 10K. Will it bounce off? Is S&P going to touch 1050? If so, will it bounce off?

 

[加京游子]

The long weekend starts on a solid footing

Is today's action a change in trend or a dead cat's bounce off the grossly oversold market? Yours truly am a fundamentalist and don't give a rat's ass to TA. Although it is always good to see a green day from a long's perspective, especially the last 1/2 hour surge, it needs a green close Monday to confirm a trend change. 按既定方针办，but I shall wait until the dying minutes on Monday or open on Tuesday to deploy my dry powder --- being fooled by head fakes way too many times. No work on Victoria Day, I may play a little day trade just for fun.

Tomorrow is a hell of an options settlement --- I don't even want to remember the heavy loss in BAC, LVS and MGM calls.

Enjoy the great weather ahead, everyone!

 

[nkpower]

危机即机会..把握好

 

[加京游子]

危机即机会..把握好

Caught way too many falling knives! Miss is better than loss; being late better than being wrong! I am playing the game differently now.

"Wealth creation is distinctly different from wealth protection" --- James Tobin

I am far from wealth protection but there are handsome paper profits to be kept and enjoyed. I am not about to burn them like last year. I will happily settle for a double in the remaining year, anything extra is icing on the cake.

 

[加京游子]

ASCO plays gone wrong

ASCO abstracts are already posted but I will need the weekend to go through them. On my watch list, there doesn't appear to be a single winner. I sold AGEN days ago at 1.42 --- it was bought for a tandem trade with the expected DNDN approval but I forgot about it at that time. Mr. Market gave me a second chance to exit for a little profit and I grabbed it tightly. Oncophase is very promising for brain cancer but it takes a long time to advance to Phase 3 from Phase 2. It simply doesn't fly with the FDA for kidney cancer. And I don't have the patience to wait for years and years --- my limited capital has better use!

 

[加京游子]

I aim to turn this thread into a best seller in the end

I am an old man and I mean business very seriously here. Please only serious discussions. Keep your bragging day trade wins and comments eslewhere, respectfully. I grew from a boy but I don't have respect and tolerance for boyish behavious in adulthood!

This is where a heavy-hitter records his trades and thought and dicusses seriously with like-minds, winning or losing being judged after the fact!

 

[lazycatcat]

What is ASCO abstracts ?

 

[加京游子]

What is ASCO abstracts ?

ASCO = American Society of Clinical Oncology

It holds an annual conference in late May/early June and a mini conference in December/January. This is where cancer trial results are usually presented. ASCO bans presenters from releasing detailed data prior to the presentation but an abstract of the results is required about 10 days before the conference. ASCO publishes the abstracts along with the presentation schedule about a week in advance.

Presentation takes two forms: plenary sessions and poster presentations. Occasionally, breaking sessions are suddenly announced for just-in late-stage trial results. The years I have followed usually produce one or two big winners each. Last year's big winner was OGXI whose pps shot up all the way to 40 from 5.xx after presenting their Phase 2 trial results. DNDN presented their results at the Urology conference (April 28) rather than at the ASCO because of timing availability.

I encourage you and all those interested in biotech to get familiar with ASCO, a big event in that space every year.

 

[加京游子]

一个国内的朋友Email来的，不胜唏嘘呀

新木兰辞——股市篇

跌跌复跌跌，新低复新低。 不闻欢呼声，唯闻股民泣。
问你何所思？问你何所忆？ 你亦无所思，你亦无所忆。
昨夜见收盘，大破政策底， 买股十余个，个个穿绿衣。
多数被腰斩，更有拦足砍， 愿为割肉去，从此莫再征。
深市买黑马，沪市买蓝筹， 仓位全建满，哪知股市险。
朝起听股评，暮来看K线。 不见股价往上升，但见市值如高山流水鸣溅溅。
旦起看新闻，暮来翘首盼。 不闻股市出利好，但闻减非提率加息声啾啾。
指数泄万里，关山度若飞。 欲割心中痛，欲补囊已空，
朔气传金柝，寒光照铁衣。散户百战死，股市十年归。
归来梦股神，股神正旁徨。策文十二篇，总言股市强。
股神问所欲，“从此不信股评郎， 皆因听了您文章，把肉割在地板上。”
爷娘闻女来，出郭相扶将。 阿姊闻女来，好言慰心房。
小弟闻女来，磨刀霍霍向恶庄。 开我东阁门，坐我西阁床。
脱我战时袍，著我旧时裳。 一朝离股海，睡觉方觉香。
涨跌不再惧，沉浮不惊惶。 可叹炒股十余年，不知股市害人狂。
深市脚扑朔，沪市眼迷离； “两市股价傍地走，安能辨我是牛熊！”

 

[加京游子]

ASCO 2010

All relevant info can be obtained via this link:

http://chicago2010.asco.org/Home.aspx

In light of my existing long positions in issues I really want to be in (partialy), I opt to give this year's ASCO a pass. The way I see it, it is prudent to hoard dry powder in this turbulent market environment.

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing the link.

I looked at a company named Forest Lab (a pharma company) and here are some highlights:

1. $8 B market cap with $3 B cash without debt.
2. Annual net income $800 M.

This company doesn't try create new molecules but rather to license them from other bio companies. The issue it is currently facing is patent expiration in 2012 of a drug that accounts for 65% of its revenue. Plus, another expiration in 2015 of a drug that accounts for 25% of its revenue. Also, its Chairman and CEO is over 80 years old.

On the other hand, it has a rich pipeline as stated in Chairman's letter on its website.

It is difficult to know how successful its pipeline will be. However, it might be interesting to take a look ...