精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
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看看你的ITMN，Still do you hold your ITMN PUT ? 今天晚上你就准备辞职报告和做退休计划吧。
由衷地祝贺你今年BIO最大的两条鱼都你给逮住了。
Did you read this:
"After selling ITMN May 25P (my ask was 5 cents below the bid but I got the bid price at 2.55),
It took nearly all morning to get my 100 calls filled."
lazycatcat
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ITMN
First, it might be a sad day for patients that they have to fly to Japan to get the cure if they believe in the drug. On the other hand, the efficacy of the drug is doubtful since FDA is an indisputable authority.
Second, congratulations to your put operation.
Third, let's keep an eye on ITMN. It may replay as DNDN down the road ...
First, it might be a sad day for patients that they have to fly to Japan to get the cure if they believe in the drug. On the other hand, the efficacy of the drug is doubtful since FDA is an indisputable authority.
Second, congratulations to your put operation.
Third, let's keep an eye on ITMN. It may replay as DNDN down the road ...
I don't have crystal balls and I don't have a mole at the FDA!
Hard work pays off in the end! Just got home and checked. It is indeed a day for soul searching!
1) I sold all DNDN May 45C in my cash account this morning on the way down, again 5 cents below the bid! This operation recouped me about 10% of what I lost with DNDN in May 2007. I will post later why I did what I did. I still keep my shares and 2011 Jan 50C in my TFSA (bought when God was a child). DNDN was working on an orderly yet powerful short squeeze. Then last night's CEO sale news killed a good rally. This selfish SOB did a great job taking DNDN to the FDA approval and kept 100% world rights (the CRL back in 2007 was not his fault). But his financial short-sightness and selfishness pissed me off and screwed my exit/entry plan.
2) ITMN's AC meeting results and the crazy runs that followed completely surprised me. I not only missed the runs up but also lost a sizable amount of money with April puts. Just read my earlier posts, my DD on ITMN did not change at all from Day 1 simply because of the pps explosions. I remained calm and waited patiently for my entry point. But I wavered yesterday by selling 25p, effectively letting 70K profits slip away if we take the pps at 11 (I own 30 40p and 20 35p - 50 25p). But like I said yesterday, ITMN has surprised so many times that I did not want to leave my position to luck. Given me the chance again, I will do the same thing. A mature man and experienced trader protects his positions! I hope I have learnt something valuable from my previous two wipeouts! Why did I not sell covered calls against my DNDN calls but did what I did with ITMN? DNDN did everything I expected but ITMN made moves completely against my expectations. Guard against the unexpecte and unexpectable!
The efficacy from the two trials and the liver side effects are just not there to warrant an approval. Even the primary end point was not well defined. One of my earlier post called for a CRL requesting further trial evidence. I was right in the money. This was posted days before the decision, foresight not hindsight!
It was a great win and feels great to beat Stevie Cohen at the game. But I seriously suspect he has sold out. I told a buddy my suspisions about Stevie raising pps to sell and the danger of DNDN insider selling yesterday morning in our smoke break. This is what is called market savviness! I want confirmation rather than move on my speculation. April ITMN puts lost me enough money, leaving alone prior huge losses.
If you are interested in FDA plays, read the requirements for approval, apart from corruption that small speculators can't do anything about.
I feel sorry for the patients. The Canadian Lungs Association has been my regular charity for the past 10 years. I will donate a one-time 5K in addition to my annual donations!
3) I bought a lot of LVS and MGM calls today!
Later
Hard work pays off in the end! Just got home and checked. It is indeed a day for soul searching!
1) I sold all DNDN May 45C in my cash account this morning on the way down, again 5 cents below the bid! This operation recouped me about 10% of what I lost with DNDN in May 2007. I will post later why I did what I did. I still keep my shares and 2011 Jan 50C in my TFSA (bought when God was a child). DNDN was working on an orderly yet powerful short squeeze. Then last night's CEO sale news killed a good rally. This selfish SOB did a great job taking DNDN to the FDA approval and kept 100% world rights (the CRL back in 2007 was not his fault). But his financial short-sightness and selfishness pissed me off and screwed my exit/entry plan.
2) ITMN's AC meeting results and the crazy runs that followed completely surprised me. I not only missed the runs up but also lost a sizable amount of money with April puts. Just read my earlier posts, my DD on ITMN did not change at all from Day 1 simply because of the pps explosions. I remained calm and waited patiently for my entry point. But I wavered yesterday by selling 25p, effectively letting 70K profits slip away if we take the pps at 11 (I own 30 40p and 20 35p - 50 25p). But like I said yesterday, ITMN has surprised so many times that I did not want to leave my position to luck. Given me the chance again, I will do the same thing. A mature man and experienced trader protects his positions! I hope I have learnt something valuable from my previous two wipeouts! Why did I not sell covered calls against my DNDN calls but did what I did with ITMN? DNDN did everything I expected but ITMN made moves completely against my expectations. Guard against the unexpecte and unexpectable!
The efficacy from the two trials and the liver side effects are just not there to warrant an approval. Even the primary end point was not well defined. One of my earlier post called for a CRL requesting further trial evidence. I was right in the money. This was posted days before the decision, foresight not hindsight!
It was a great win and feels great to beat Stevie Cohen at the game. But I seriously suspect he has sold out. I told a buddy my suspisions about Stevie raising pps to sell and the danger of DNDN insider selling yesterday morning in our smoke break. This is what is called market savviness! I want confirmation rather than move on my speculation. April ITMN puts lost me enough money, leaving alone prior huge losses.
If you are interested in FDA plays, read the requirements for approval, apart from corruption that small speculators can't do anything about.
I feel sorry for the patients. The Canadian Lungs Association has been my regular charity for the past 10 years. I will donate a one-time 5K in addition to my annual donations!
3) I bought a lot of LVS and MGM calls today!
Later
The year is still very young. Be very assured that there is a lot more to come!
ITMN is no DNDN, my friend! I was expecting that they do a secondary offer after the AC --- simple business common sense. They did not and killed my April puts. Apart from selling all his shares prior to the AC, the CEO is a fool --- just listening to the CC following the AC and it is so unmistakenly clear (I posted my understanding and that of my buddy to you). How could he not issue 30M shares to raise $1B to secure a bright future for the company when the stock was at 40? Simply put, stupidity! My son/daughter could run a business far better than this piece of sh****t! Another great reason for me to long/call APPY for what they did last Friday --- an experienced and WS savvy CEO! For trading purposes, there may be dead-cat bounces in ITMN. But I have better things to work on --- busy with revisng a PRS and reading my co-authored article publication in CEP today. Got to put the final polishing touches to a paper by week's end and design an interesting long-term research project for my day job. Can't enjoy seeing the fun trading. ITMN is going belly up!
OK, let me spit out why I sold out DNDN rather than swapping it today as long planned --- I expect DNDN to issue 25-30M shares to raise $1-1.5B in the next 6-8 weeks. It is far better for them to issue notes or get a loan (every IB will beat to give DNDN a loan now) but this selfish SOB MG won't listen, even to his best CFO, until he is kicked off! And we shall do our best for all concerned! I drafted an ROW design back in 2007 before the FDA PDUFA date for him and the BOD and he threw it out of the window. Provenge would have been approved should that ROW partnership be in place. Not a personal revenge (he did good for everyone concerned up to this point) but I will work my best to get him removed. I also want DNDN to stay independent now. This is a life-time endeavour!
He is a very stubborn SOB and extremely selfish but he outsmarts a lot of WS gurus (can you imagine a 38-year old unknown urologist walking out of a $1B 50-50 partnership offer from DNA in 2005?). I can be very wrong with my call and may pay a hefty price to chase DNDN up but I am convinced that I can re-enter DNDN at 45 or when the secondary offer comes along, whichever comes first. Knowing MG for over 5 years keeps my hopes alive and high!
ITMN reminds me of the vaccine-developing genius but WS stupid CEO of SVA! Don't entrust your hard-earned money with those self-proclaimed academic geniuses! It takes a lot more than academic credentials and achievements to make a living in WS! I have already paid my dear prices!
对付非常人的唯一办法是非常办法 --- 对付不按牌理出牌的人，除了跟着不按牌理出牌，还有别的更好的出牌法吗？
MG vs SA: why I sold out of DNDN and bought more of LVS
My selling out of DNDN today doesn't mean I am no longer bullish on DNDN's longer-term bright future! To the contrary, I am still ambitious to become a multiple Dendreonnaire down the road! MG，MG, no short can kill a rally better than this selfish SOB! The short-term outlook is very muddy, from where I see things! And when visibility gets muddy, I step aside.
That being said, MG's huge sale on the news (about 70% of his holdings, not to count his unexercised options as well as the more options he is going to get) got me up all night last night. Simply put, this urologist has achieved beyond a dream. He has way over-achieved. A world-class company needs a world-class leader. MG's regular stock sales at every chance he got alone unmistakenly labels him as a short-sighted selfish CEO taking care of only his own financial well beings, not that of the company/investors. A guy who cares more about his $17M payday is not made to lead a world-class organization. And let me just stop at that. With the science and the FDA approval behind Provenge, my son/daugher can probably take DNDN to the level of a world-leading organization but I am very sure that MG won't make it. I am leading a small group's effortd to remove MG from the CEO post at the AGM in June in San Francisco. I congratulated him for what he has achieved for himself and DNDN investors. 知恩图报，he will enjoy the previliges and stock options set for a life-time Chairman as long as Dendreon stays independent!
If you are a careful reader, the rationale behind my selling out (200c) in one shot on the way down below bid should be very clear to you --- I intend to get out fast! When and where do I re-enter? Sorry I can't disclose that now.
In direct contrast, SA put over a $1B of his and his family's money into LVS when things appeared nothing but doomed back in March 2009. That is what makes the quality of a world-class leader!
I will get back into DNDN one day, building up a multiple-million-dollar potential portfolio. I have my speculations and I feel I may have to wait for 6-8 weeks. Sorry I can't reveal my unconfirmed speculations before my portfolio is established.
But be very assured that I will be an LVS millionnaire before a Dendreonnaire. That is, if my dreams ever come true! All my other trades are intended to provide good support, and good support only! Again, this is conditional on how AppyScore test results show up in the not too distant future.
Keep the faith and stay the course!
Best of lucks, everyone!
My selling out of DNDN today doesn't mean I am no longer bullish on DNDN's longer-term bright future! To the contrary, I am still ambitious to become a multiple Dendreonnaire down the road! MG，MG, no short can kill a rally better than this selfish SOB! The short-term outlook is very muddy, from where I see things! And when visibility gets muddy, I step aside.
That being said, MG's huge sale on the news (about 70% of his holdings, not to count his unexercised options as well as the more options he is going to get) got me up all night last night. Simply put, this urologist has achieved beyond a dream. He has way over-achieved. A world-class company needs a world-class leader. MG's regular stock sales at every chance he got alone unmistakenly labels him as a short-sighted selfish CEO taking care of only his own financial well beings, not that of the company/investors. A guy who cares more about his $17M payday is not made to lead a world-class organization. And let me just stop at that. With the science and the FDA approval behind Provenge, my son/daugher can probably take DNDN to the level of a world-leading organization but I am very sure that MG won't make it. I am leading a small group's effortd to remove MG from the CEO post at the AGM in June in San Francisco. I congratulated him for what he has achieved for himself and DNDN investors. 知恩图报，he will enjoy the previliges and stock options set for a life-time Chairman as long as Dendreon stays independent!
If you are a careful reader, the rationale behind my selling out (200c) in one shot on the way down below bid should be very clear to you --- I intend to get out fast! When and where do I re-enter? Sorry I can't disclose that now.
In direct contrast, SA put over a $1B of his and his family's money into LVS when things appeared nothing but doomed back in March 2009. That is what makes the quality of a world-class leader!
I will get back into DNDN one day, building up a multiple-million-dollar potential portfolio. I have my speculations and I feel I may have to wait for 6-8 weeks. Sorry I can't reveal my unconfirmed speculations before my portfolio is established.
But be very assured that I will be an LVS millionnaire before a Dendreonnaire. That is, if my dreams ever come true! All my other trades are intended to provide good support, and good support only! Again, this is conditional on how AppyScore test results show up in the not too distant future.
Keep the faith and stay the course!
Best of lucks, everyone!
由衷地祝贺你今年BIO最大的两条鱼都你给逮住了。
谢了，哥们！你可能看了不是很多吧？ITMN 从12-49我就没逮着 --- 我是一路看着它涨的！MDVN 从40-11我也没逮着！不过，我还逮着了DCTH 从6-15，而且我做的是期权，杠杆的作用挺大哟！我昨天就已经卖了ITMN 25p了，没有赚到多少。少赚了很多但真的该这么做 --- 我以往的大败笔就在于单向而不做保护 --- 不赔大本哪知道赔本的苦呀！所以，我今晚不仅没为少赚8-10万难受，还给自己开了瓶cognac。以后有东西需要保护了，我会更加小心的。去年把BAC赚的都烧在了SVA上，追悔莫及呀！
lazycatcat
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I expected possibility of management to talk the stock down but didn't expect such a large stock sale. It is hard to conclude the CEO is in for the short-term simply because of this sale. The sale is win win win for the executives: 1. Cash out to build a safety net; 2. Drive down stock price; 3. Either buy back at lower price or price stock options at lower price. So, to them, the sale is quite rational.
Now, the key question is whether they will succeed in driving down the stock price ?! The value of DNDN is probably pretty obvious to knowledgeable bio investors. If these investors actually drive the price up or keep it stable, the executives won't be able to get large windfalls. Plus, the active investors could take control and seek a sale. So, the real drivers to the stock price will probably be the true valuation of DNDN by professional investors. Carl Icahn did some impressive work at Imclone and I wouldn't be surprised he pops up someday on DNDN if all the value of DNDN being talked about is real.
Since approval, 102 M shares (out of 135 M shares) have changed hands at prices over $50. Before the end of this week, probably over 135 M shares will change hand. If volume starts to dwindle down, it won't be a surprise something interesting coming up ...
Just some thoughts to share.
Excellent read, indeed. MG is no fool --- extremely selfish but outstandingly smart (I shook his damned tender hands in 2006). The other insiders, except David Urdal the CMO, sold a little --- understandably. MG managed to pass a poison pill at the last AGM (issuing 3 preferred shares at 10B each). No buyout of DNDN, my friend! I just want the motion to pass at the June AGM that the next option grant based on milestone is market-priced! I have already emailed that in last night (because I am not sure if I can be at the AGM this year). MG the bastard deserves to get his butt kicked and hard!
I used to know about DNDN as well as any insider, apart from insider info, of course. No more since last Thursday! I knew all insiders would sell some simply to enjoy the fruits of hard work. But MG's selling of 70% of his holdings got my hair up in the air. I will definitely kick his butt and hard next time I get to see him! I have yet to meet with the new additions to the top dogs but I believe they are the herd that will take DNDN to the next level!
There are insider sales and then insider sales. Invesors should read them very differently. DNDN insider sales are actually healthy to a certain degree. The magnitude of MG's sale is simply beyond acceptance! Wish DB, JPM, SC and the like gang up to teach MG a lesson --- Lucy Lu, where are you now? Come out with a downgrade to strong sell and PT of 25, girl! Hahaha! How about a "price-to-fall" research note? Can I get such a note for 5K, huh?
I don't bash the stock I have a millionnaire dream riding on. Made my judgement and moved accordingly. Let' see if I am right or wrong. I will chase it up to build my portfolio if I have to (with the cash now).
DNDN poison pill
This 2002 article describes the PP:
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2002/09/23/daily20.html
The revised PP clause at last year's AGM specified 3 preferred shares at $10B each to be distributed as proportional rights to all common holders. This is from memory only and I can't find the link now.
CAT: your sense of the volume traded since last Thursday may not correctly reflect ownership change at all. Big volumes traded, yes but no figure to check ownership change at the moment. Sheer volume doesn't tell the number of shares changing hands and the velocity at which share churns. Everybody is in the mix: investors, traders, shorts. The next quarterly report by institutions will reflect that but that is a month away.
The version I read about MG sale was $17.4M. The official report is out now and it was over $28M. What a handsome payday, huh? I knew for a long time he is very selfish but the magnitude of his selfishness and the implied short-sightness is beyond me.
My DNDN expectations of 3-4x this level within the next 18-24 months remain unchanged at all, conditional on that it stays independent. My speculation of capital raise is out of MG's going solo ROW stubbornness (maybe nobody is willing to pay what he wants, that is insider info to which I am not privy) in conjunction of his 70% holdings sale. If I remember correctly, he sold a lot right after the IMPACT (D9902B) result release on April 28 last year and the DB secondary offer was announced early June (8-10% discount to the market price). With the holding portfolio I desire to build, 8-10% means quite some serious change and I am taking the risk to wait.
This 2002 article describes the PP:
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2002/09/23/daily20.html
The revised PP clause at last year's AGM specified 3 preferred shares at $10B each to be distributed as proportional rights to all common holders. This is from memory only and I can't find the link now.
CAT: your sense of the volume traded since last Thursday may not correctly reflect ownership change at all. Big volumes traded, yes but no figure to check ownership change at the moment. Sheer volume doesn't tell the number of shares changing hands and the velocity at which share churns. Everybody is in the mix: investors, traders, shorts. The next quarterly report by institutions will reflect that but that is a month away.
The version I read about MG sale was $17.4M. The official report is out now and it was over $28M. What a handsome payday, huh? I knew for a long time he is very selfish but the magnitude of his selfishness and the implied short-sightness is beyond me.
My DNDN expectations of 3-4x this level within the next 18-24 months remain unchanged at all, conditional on that it stays independent. My speculation of capital raise is out of MG's going solo ROW stubbornness (maybe nobody is willing to pay what he wants, that is insider info to which I am not privy) in conjunction of his 70% holdings sale. If I remember correctly, he sold a lot right after the IMPACT (D9902B) result release on April 28 last year and the DB secondary offer was announced early June (8-10% discount to the market price). With the holding portfolio I desire to build, 8-10% means quite some serious change and I am taking the risk to wait.
I lost about 15K with my April puts (the revealing of Cohen holding, the anticipated Hep C results and short squeezes ran it up to 49.xx). The moves surprised me to hell. After my April loss, I had the patience to wait until the retracement from 49 to 47 to first enter my May puts. My April puts entry was on the way up --- as stupid as any entry can get. The first entry was under water immediately but I did not cut loss, instead, I threw more good money after bad by adding --- stupid, huh (buy on the way up and sell on the way down is my usual way for long/calls and the reverse applies for short/puts --- I don't do unprotected short, period --- except LVS and MGM this year). Then I traded a few hands with May puts and recouped about 70-80% of that loss (I don't do the counting until I review my records). Like I said repeatedly, I like to more or less play with house money heading into a binary event. My last batch of May puts was bought last Thursday after taking great profits with LVS and MGM. Then I wavered last Monday by selling those 25p. All together, my commitment was not that sizable to begin with. I am very satisfied with a 65K proceed in just a few days (missing about 15 points implies the insurance would have cost me about 75K profits for the peace of mind on 12K reduced exposure. I could not afford the loss of that 12K heading into a binary event whose conclusion is only known after the fact, especially being surprised that many time) --- that is quite a helping hand going into building up my DNDN/LVS holdings. The entire operation has probably netted me 50-55K with my initial commitment of 20K in about 2 months. Sold 20 LVS puts yesterday hoping to be put the shares. LVS has too many big news forthcoming until Sept. not to play with front-month options.
I need APPY to come through for a bio trifecta!
HGSI: a case stduy for those interested
Sold 10 puts yesterday to get myself started with it in the hope to be put the shares (selling puts is my way of getting shares, not your typical trader way, huh?). A lot more work to be done.
It is estimated that the LUPUS drug has about $4B market potentials (HGSI has a 50-50 partnership in place) and HGSI has an impressive pipeline. I missed it big time last year. The recently announced non-positive results for the secondary endpoints (for efficacy at the 76th-week) should not be expected to bear any material impact on the FDA decision but Mr. Market always finds a funny way to react to any news. The pullback has been pretty significant.
Anybody interested in this please share the info. I am starting to look at AMLN again (my earlier strangle resulted in a near wipeout).
Sold 10 puts yesterday to get myself started with it in the hope to be put the shares (selling puts is my way of getting shares, not your typical trader way, huh?). A lot more work to be done.
It is estimated that the LUPUS drug has about $4B market potentials (HGSI has a 50-50 partnership in place) and HGSI has an impressive pipeline. I missed it big time last year. The recently announced non-positive results for the secondary endpoints (for efficacy at the 76th-week) should not be expected to bear any material impact on the FDA decision but Mr. Market always finds a funny way to react to any news. The pullback has been pretty significant.
Anybody interested in this please share the info. I am starting to look at AMLN again (my earlier strangle resulted in a near wipeout).
