精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

Don't understand the real issue with your broker. The commission seems to be high. IB is a lot cheaper like $1.00 for each stock transaction and $0.85 - $1.00 for each option trading.

I don't have margin account with IB but a few friends have and seem to be happy...

 

[lazycatcat]

There are variations but the commission is definitely low. Their website is www.interactivebrokers.com ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for reminder on VVUS. I have no position there. The date is not out and so no play.

The current turmoil could render financials interesting coming July option expiry date for companies like JPM etc ...

 

[lazycatcat]

VVUS

Thanks for the alert of July 15th for VVUS. I can see the options are geared up for the event.

Is it committee recommendation or is it the final decision by FDA ? Any thoughts on how to play VVUS, probably in connection with ARNA ?

I presume a recommendation or a refusal can be both positive for ARNA ...

 

[lazycatcat]

July 15 is AC for VVUS; the FDA PDUFA date is late October. VVUS' efficacy is undisputable. My concern is with the safety. Given the FDA's bad taste in the VIOXX controversies, I place more weight on safety than on efficacy. I have all along planned a strangle attack, entering at different times, looking at the 12-13 strike. No position yet. I will wait after June OE such that time decay will eat into the options premium. I see VVUS 20 or 5 pending the AC outcome.

As for ARNA, I have no idea what I will do with it yet. Below 3, I think the downside risk is limited but what the upside potentials are is the question I have to have a clear answer before committing a trade. I don't want to hold a "dead-money" stock.

Pardon my ignorance. What is AC ?

 

[Green158]

Gold is a highly inflated bubble waiting to bust, period. Recent momeries have witnessed great bubbles and the subsequent spetacular busting: The dotcom bubble, the telecom bubble, the housing bubble, the oil bubble (wasn't it at 140 a couple of years ago and GS pumped it hard with a PT of 200 while selling and shorting?). Gold is no exception, a bubble built on imagination waiting to bust in fanfare.

I will short gold at the time I deem prudent, buying GLD puts, that is.

If you really want to short gold , try short physical gold etf instead of GLD , the symbol is SGOL . Or short GLD calls instead of buy puts because of high VIX.

But my humble opinion , I am not bearish on gold and gold stocks..

Some big hedge funds are bullish on gold and gold stocks , such as Soros and Henry Paulson ,both of them bot tons of GLD;Canadian hedge fund --- Eric sprrot ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for clarification on AC. You are right that bio is a different type of play.

If I remember correctly, total value of gold ever unearthed is around $4 T when gold is at $1000 per ounce. If paper money keeps being printed in large quantity, it is not clear if gold will rise in tandem of inflation or shall fall.

It is true that gold has no real value except for jewelry and being regarded as 'money'. On the other hand, this concept of gold being real money always lingers in people's minds.

 

[加京游子]

Capitulation today?

Woke up for a glass of water and took a look at world trading. It is a sea of pleasant green all over and futures in deep green. If the DOW comes back up to close over 10K, this is the third time it dips below but recovers from this crucial psycological frontier. Can this mark the capitulation?

 

[加京游子]

"It was the granddaddy of all bubbles." --- Warren Buffett

Yet, he did not even have the guts to admit the roles he played in the over-ratings of CDO's and MBS's for too long. Further, he is strongly opposed to the derivative collateral clause. "The granddaddy of all manipulators", IMO. Hope the SEC and the Justice Department can launch investigations into his directions to the credit rating agencies.

 

[lazycatcat]

Welcome back, Jia. Hope you had a good trip to Q city.

 

[加京游子]

Welcome back, Jia. Hope you had a good trip to Q city.

The trip to Quebec City was magnificent! The weather was cooperating, the view breathtaking. This must be the 9th or 10th time I went to QC but I have never realized that QC is so beautiful before. What was more intriguing was the fact that when I checked into the hotel, LVS, APPY and ELN all exploded more than 10% on the day I left town, which reminded me of last year when I left for the CEA meeting in Toronto, DVAX exploded by more than 45%. Two years in a row, more than a coincidence! I wish the CEA can hold its annual meetings more than once in a year. Once every month would work out great! But nobody can write papers at that frequency and I am no exception. I sold out ELN calls (80% profits in 3 days, not bad at all) and APPY shares the next day. Pretty good trades there. Also traded LVS front-month calls last week and got about 80% in 3 days while holding the LEAPs (looking to triple that position). After two big losses, I seem to have my LVS touch back again (on a much smaller scale though). Sadly, I did not have the guts to go puts once I sold my calls as originally planned. I just cannot think of a reason to put LVS.

I won't be able to do much until OpEx. Hope the market can hold DNDN at the present level for two more weeks. I won't have to do much if I am put the DNDN shares. I will buy a lot more LEAPs if I am not put the shares. In case that I am put the shares, I will likely trade 1/2 for LEAPs.

DNDN has retraced back to a level beyond my wildest imagination. In my simple mind, this is giving me another chance to load up big for the long term. It gave me the chance last year but I did not have the capital. It gave me the chance again this year but I did not have sufficient capital either. I am determined to take advantage of the chance this time around. At 40 and change, I can't think of a better place to park capital outside of LVS.

Need APPY to come through and it is again a waiting game now.

The market is a big mess. Regret like hell that I did not follow through my BP puts plan as I told my friends on the day the news about the oil leak broke. A big miss indeed but a miss is nevertheless a lot better than a big loss.

 

[lazycatcat]

I should have checked BP too. The option premium is not expensive. Maybe we shall remind each other on such opportunities later on.

Material progress is needed now for DNDN to advance significantly. I think the market is discounting for potential manufacturing issues etc. While DNDN has a ground-breaking drug, the valuation needs support from good earnings and good new drugs. There are a few small drug companies in "value" land like ENZON etc ... So good news is needed I think to propel DNDN further ...

 

[加京游子]

I should have checked BP too. The option premium is not expensive. Maybe we shall remind each other on such opportunities later on.

Material progress is needed now for DNDN to advance significantly. I think the market is discounting for potential manufacturing issues etc. While DNDN has a ground-breaking drug, the valuation needs support from good earnings and good new drugs. There are a few small drug companies in "value" land like ENZON etc ... So good news is needed I think to propel DNDN further ...

One thing I am very confident of is that DNDN news will start floating again soon. I just hope that Gold and the top dogs get their options soon. DNDN may remain in the sleeping mode for quite some time to come but my eyes are set on 2012 and beyond. I simply want to park a good chunk of capital there so that I won't burn it elsewhere.

The market opens day after day after day and opportunities are always there day in and day out. I no longer beat myself up badly for missing.

 

[加京游子]

Buying opportunities ahead tomorrow?

I managed to sell my LVS June calls (bought last Tuesday) and trading LEAPs last Thursday. Asia is in deep red right now and futures are pretty red too. For those who are generally not short/put minded like me, cash is probably where to be. But I will look to trade LVS (while holding my core-holding LEAPs), the best holding/trading security I have ever come up with. Should the market sell off again tomorrow, I will buy LVS towards the end of the session.

Nobody has ever disclosed if he/she is in DNDN. I am a die-hard DNDN long-term holder. The 2007 wipeout apart, I started owning DNDN from the high 2's last year, trading some and sold all at around 55. My around 1/2 re-entry was done when it was around 45, significantly under water now. Apart from -20 June 41 puts, I don't have any short-term DNDN options. When I sold the puts, I was fully prepared to be put the shares. Like I have repeatedly stated, my eyes are set on 2012 and beyond. Any minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day variations amount to nothing but noise. Of course, I have -20 puts to settle and any buying decision has to be around that. Once that is settled, I will buy on the dips and lock them away.

 

[nkpower]

大盘跌的不多呀.