精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

DCTH is fighting back

The stock was decimated post a very good presentation of great news at the ASCO by the main investigator, chiefly for two reasons: the discussant with conflict-of-interest (working for competitors) attacked the presentation from every angle possible with misinformation and fabrication; AF from the Street.com bashed like there is no tomorrow again with misinformation and fabrication of market size and potentials. Shorts (legit and illegal) took advantage and ventured a free fall. In a matter of 3 days, the pps nosedived by about 40%, demoralizing longs like hell.

Take note: the company is fighting back with might! It is scheduling a confererence call to discuss recent developments Tuesday at 4:30pm, an unusually rare move. Will there be new news released (such as a partnership)? I don't speculate or anticipate in this case. Rather, I will move following the facts.

Too bad that my order of 3K shares and 50 2011 Jan calls did not get filled last Thursday, both missing only by a few cents. With only 2K shares in my account, a surge will definitely help but I need not only the price appreciation but also the quantity of position to recover my huge losses elsewhere.

Another potential disaster is developing with DNDN. Should the pps recover to above 41 by OpEx (which is entirely likely given the volatility), I won't be put the shares. If that is the case, I will end up with no LEAPs added at the bottom and no shares being put, double losing. The cold comfort is that 82K cash will be liberated that I can deploy to work. The sad thing is to sit on a pile of cash at the very bottom of the market. One day in such a volitile market can make a big difference, leaving alone a long week.

I am calling for an overall market negative trend reversal and recovery. Thursday's surge was not followed by a corrective selloff Friday, which to me is a confirmation of a negative trend reversal and recovery.

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing DCTH. Hope there is some significant event in the coming months.

Very impressed with your DNDN commitment. I have been thinking of how to speculate/invest in high-growth stocks, especially such growth potential is widely known. I think using long-term at-price put option to protect the position is vital to ride the inevitable volatile ride. To offset the put cost, selling some covered calls is probably reasonable.

If growth is smooth, one will give up probably 20% for safety. If growth is volatile, the pay-back of put option can be invested back at lower price of the stock.

The upcoming financial reform bill shall be interesting in next two weeks ............

 

[加京游子]

Thanks for sharing DCTH. Hope there is some significant event in the coming months.

Very impressed with your DNDN commitment. I have been thinking of how to speculate/invest in high-growth stocks, especially such growth potential is widely known. I think using long-term at-price put option to protect the position is vital to ride the inevitable volatile ride. To offset the put cost, selling some covered calls is probably reasonable.

If growth is smooth, one will give up probably 20% for safety. If growth is volatile, the pay-back of put option can be invested back at lower price of the stock.

The upcoming financial reform bill shall be interesting in next two weeks ............

No need to hope for significant event(s) in DCTH, there will surely be plenty!

For my long-holding positions, I just want to ride them out for the long haul one directionally. Volatility is the name of the game, expect that any day. That is exactly why I don't want to write CC's or owning protective puts. I will otherwise be out of my positions with one forceful move and the puts expire worthless. It takes conviction and patience to long these issues, and I happen to have plenty of those. Granted, CC's may be written or protective puts bought after a forceful move along the paths. Don't expext these (or any stock for that matter) to move up straightly. The key for me is to own sufficient positions when the eventual big move hits. I am a betting man and rarely sit on the fence. A possible few points under water at this stage of the game concerns me far less than the eventual miss.

 

[加京游子]

DCTH CC has concluded

No announcement of a partnership but most if not all of misinformation about trial design and market potentials has been laid to rest, which was AF's, Cramer's and shorties' fear mongering, IMO.

I was adding on slight dips over the last couple of days, averaging up from my original entry (cost base is now 9.7, up from 9.1) and now fully loaded.

 

[加京游子]

I urge all interesed to listen to the DCTH CC

I have a nasty cold, bad coughing and severe headaches. I won't post the summary. This is truly a revolution in treating liver cancer, folks (delivering up to 100x regular chemo dose without added toxicity) --- not like the way Provenge works though. Listen to the CC with your own ears and make your own judgements.

If for whatever reason, shorts dare to drive this below 9, I will double my line of postion by averaging down. Don't mind long 10K shares around 9 anyway. Giving up 1K DNDN for 5K DCTH is not a bad idea at all (with the way DNDN recovers, I am not sure if DNDN shares will be put to my account). Pray for DNDN to close not far away from 41 by Friday --- anything above 38.75 is just fine.

 

[加京游子]

What have/are you done/going to do for Father's Day!

As a proud father of two and grandfather of two, I took the last few days off to celebrate Father's Day by buying a yellow hibiscus (to go with my lovely red one), a few bottles of vintage wine and some cognac, and some favourite Fujian seafood.

In a special day like this, stocks take back stage. The market, after all, opens 5 days a week most of the time while there is only one Father's Day a year!

Enjoy, all fathers, it is our day, only once a year!

Here is a peom my lovely and beautiful daughter wrote me a few years ago on a Father's Day when she was 9:

Birds are chirping;
FLowers blooming.
What special day can it be?
Oh, it is Father's Day coming.
Happy Father's Day, Daddy.
It is your day!

She doens't speak much Chinese. So, here is my humble translation for her poem to her father when she was 9:

百鸟齐吟;
繁花怒放!
会是什么特别的日子呢?
啊，原来是父亲节来了.
爸爸：祝你节日快乐!
这可是专属于你的节日耶。

Thanks, 宝贝！No one knows better about fathers than daughters! I love my son, my daughter, my grandson, my granddaughter all very much and equally!

 

[加京游子]

Biotech in the doghouse

DNDN, DCTH, APPY, HGSI, AMLN, VVUS are the biotech names I own/watch, they are all in the doghouse. No company related news at all. Probably a sectoral rotation thing. I had a pretty rough day, nothing new though!

 

[加京游子]

有通易经的吗？

都说碰到少见的事不一定是好事。前不久和一朋友聊起我碰到过的少见的事，如有通易经的，很想听听怎么个说法。

2005回国给老爸过80大寿，碰到3件罕见事：

1）铁树开花：福州鼓山寺铁树不少，养殖多年但没听说开花的。回去时同学说听说铁树开花了，非带我去看不可。去看了，真开了不少花。

2）孔雀开屏：福州东湖动物园有不少孔雀，也很少听说自己开屏的。同学非带我去看不可。去看了，真的一头接着一头开屏。

3）茶花盛开：村里路边一棵老茶树听老爸说几十年没开花了，但我回去的前一天居然一下子开了近百朵又红又艳的大红花。

还有第4件呢：

4）海龟下蛋：那还是离开Halifax前的1991年，和一群朋友到Tachimouguochi省立公园玩，碰到一大海龟（恐怕有几十斤重）下了一大堆蛋（可能有20几个），正双眼直视着孵小龟。

 

[加京游子]

DNDN and DCTH

While DNDN took heavy beating yesterday and today, DCTH drifted lower. As planned, I added 100 DNDN 2012 Jan 90 C at 1.3 and picked up another K DCTH at 8.75 today. I have now put back more than 100K into DNDN but the current worth is only about 50%. Wish I had the crystal balls regarding pps movements such that I could buy all my position today and have twice as much under control but I don't. This started out as a re-investment and will be treated as such.

These stocks are for people who have done their DD's and strong conviction in their long-term outlooks. Don't touch these stocks if you are risk averse or your time horizon is a few days, weeks or months as nobody knows what will happen short-term.

 

[lazycatcat]

VVUS

It looks you were hitting a stream of lucky events !

Are you in VVUS ? I thought you opted out due to safety concerns. This is a bit tricky situation and there is an obvious angle for play.

This Friday will be interesting with respect to financial reforms. Once the government is off the back of major banks. They shall be free to earn nice profits. This is a stress test of banks' earning power. If they can't raise fees to offset legislation cost, banks become questionable. We will see.

Personally, I still think large positions in bio should be protected. The FDA risk and operational risk are very different. Just my opinions though ...

 

[加京游子]

It looks you were hitting a stream of lucky events !

Are you in VVUS ? I thought you opted out due to safety concerns. This is a bit tricky situation and there is an obvious angle for play.

This Friday will be interesting with respect to financial reforms. Once the government is off the back of major banks. They shall be free to earn nice profits. This is a stress test of banks' earning power. If they can't raise fees to offset legislation cost, banks become questionable. We will see.

Personally, I still think large positions in bio should be protected. The FDA risk and operational risk are very different. Just my opinions though ...

I have hit a stream of unlucky turns of events lately!

No, I am not in VVUS yet, just keep an eye open on it. What angle are you looking at for a play?

I am waiting to see what happens to the reform bill before commiting myself into banks.

The FDA risk is indeed very different from operational risk. DNDN at 34 and change post approval surprises me to hell. This is crazy and sellers will regret like hell just like what happened in Feb/March 2009 when DNDN was below 3!

 

[lazycatcat]

VVUS

Just a thought on VVUS.

Assumptions:

1. VVUS probably won't be worth much if its drug is rejected or require additional data.
2. VVUS probably won't rise too much if Yes votes are close to No votes.
3. VVUS probably will rise high if Yes votes are much higher than No votes.

To guard against surprises, use August option instead of July. Here is a thought.

1. Buy $9 put for $2.6 and sell $6 put for $1.4 - cost is $1.2.
2. Buy $10 call for $2.95 and sell $15 call for $1.2 - cost is $1.75

Total cost is $2.95. In scenario 1, cost can be fully recovered.
In scenario 2, there might be slight loss.
In scenario 3, max return is 5 - 2.95 = 2.15.

Risk/reward is not too great .... So, it is hard to play on VVUS. Just let it go ????

 

[加京游子]

Just a thought on VVUS.

Assumptions:

1. VVUS probably won't be worth much if its drug is rejected or require additional data.
2. VVUS probably won't rise too much if Yes votes are close to No votes.
3. VVUS probably will rise high if Yes votes are much higher than No votes.

To guard against surprises, use August option instead of July. Here is a thought.

1. Buy $9 put for $2.6 and sell $6 put for $1.4 - cost is $1.2.
2. Buy $10 call for $2.95 and sell $15 call for $1.2 - cost is $1.75

Total cost is $2.95. In scenario 1, cost can be fully recovered.
In scenario 2, there might be slight loss.
In scenario 3, max return is 5 - 2.95 = 2.15.

Risk/reward is not too great .... So, it is hard to play on VVUS. Just let it go ????

Assumption 1 doesn't hold --- AC doesn't reject any drug or require additional trial. AC makes recommendation but that ultimate decision rests with the FDA.

Assumptions 2 and 3 are in the money. Let me repeat again: I am impressed with their efficacy. My concern is with the safety and tolerability. Obesity is very nasty and leads to many forms of diseases but it is not an end-stage disease in and of itself like late-stage cancers. As such, I believe the FDA will be more stringent in safety.

The choice of August options is more prudent than July, IMO, as the AC is scheduled on July 15.

Your suggested Play 1 is a bear spread and Play 2 a bull spread. If I were to play, I would only play one but not both, and I would choose the bull spread. The risk/reward simply doesn't warrant a play for both. What I have in mind, though, is a strangle --- buy both calls and puts. But the current pps combined with the premium level makes it very hard to play a strangle. For the 10 strike, it takes a move above 15 or below 5 to be profitable, the risk/reward is simply not in favour of a play.

As of now, I will just watch. I may make a move after the FDA review doc is posted (usually 2-3 days ahead of the AC) or after the AC. But again, I may simply pass. There are better choices out there, I think. I am a lot more comfortable parking money with DNDN/LVS/DCTH at these levels and wait for 12-18 months than venturing into uncharted waters.

 

[加京游子]

VHC: .5 one-time cash dividend on July 15 for shares on record of July 1

It is joining Russell 3K.

It sued MSFT for patent infringement and settled for 200M recently. Other big tech users are expected to follow MSFT for payments and licensing agreements.

Picked up 2K shares at 6.6 a while ago and will look to add before July 1.

DCTH is simply crushed in the last few days. Picked up another K at 7.65. 3K away from my target position now.

 

[加京游子]

It is joining Russell 3K.

It sued MSFT for patent infringement and settled for 200M recently. Other big tech users are expected to follow MSFT for payments and licensing agreements.

Picked up 2K shares at 6.6 a while ago and will look to add before July 1.

DCTH is simply crushed in the last few days. Picked up another K at 7.65. 3K away from my target position now.

It did not take long for VHC to drop .15 to fill my 2k order at 6.45. My impatience to buy at the market price at 6.6 cost me 300 bucks. Such is life!