lazycatcat
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精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
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ARNA: I bet big and I lost big
All included (shares, Oct. calls --- which will surely expire worthless, sold Sept puts --- which will surely be exercised, and sold 2011 Jan. puts --- which I also assume to be exercised), I will own a truckload of ARNA at the average cost of exactly 2.5 apiece, which is going at 2.2 right at the moment. This huge setback again among many that I have suffered all but destroys my dream of making it big in the market!
Many times before, I sold when bad news hit, attempting to buy back lower, only to see the stocks rising and rising after I sold. I am holding every single share of ARNA, waiting for either a good rebounce or going zero. Did not envision that my WS participation will end with ARNA but that is what I have to prepare now. Should my WS participation end with ARNA, this thread will die with it.
It is a wild jangle out there in biotech. I wish everyone all the very best of lucks!
All included (shares, Oct. calls --- which will surely expire worthless, sold Sept puts --- which will surely be exercised, and sold 2011 Jan. puts --- which I also assume to be exercised), I will own a truckload of ARNA at the average cost of exactly 2.5 apiece, which is going at 2.2 right at the moment. This huge setback again among many that I have suffered all but destroys my dream of making it big in the market!
Many times before, I sold when bad news hit, attempting to buy back lower, only to see the stocks rising and rising after I sold. I am holding every single share of ARNA, waiting for either a good rebounce or going zero. Did not envision that my WS participation will end with ARNA but that is what I have to prepare now. Should my WS participation end with ARNA, this thread will die with it.
It is a wild jangle out there in biotech. I wish everyone all the very best of lucks!
lazycatcat
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I made an error in calculating my cost base by including the 50 Oct. calls in my total share count, which will surely expire worthless. Factoring in all, my cost base is 2.86 rather than 2.5 apiece as in my earlier post.
The opening price won't mean much to me as I am not looking to trade it tomorrow. This is a huge loss both financially and mentally. It is highly likely that my WS participation ends with ARNA unless miracle happens. Most likley, I won't be able to recover from this devastation both financially and mentally. The big chunk of my capital commitment is the naked Jan. 2011 4 and 2.5 puts. After the briefing doc on Tuesday and the devastating fall (It was somehow leaked to the shorting hedge funds), I thought an unfavourable vote was largely priced in. Attempting to reduce cost base, I sold a lot more Jan. 2011 2.5 puts.
Things will unfold as days pass. Right from the get go, the fix was in. From the briefing documents to the entire AC proceeding, the FDA was framing for a pre-determined no vote. Hindsight is 20-20. The matter of the fact is that I bet big and I lost big. WS is a rigged game that I can't beat. Before this ARNA saga, I was doubtful about myself but parents-given nature makes me remain positive and hopeful. I gave it my best efforts. I failed miserably.
I need to work out strategies going forward attempting to salvage what is left over. I am fully prepared for the absolute worst-case scenario and that is, ARNA goes belly up. At this price, cutting loss by selling stock doesn't make much sense at all. After being put the shares next Monday, I will look to write covered calls at a high enough strike and at the same time, meaningfully reduce my cost base every month. My full position won't reach my account until next Jan. unless the puts owner(s) decides to put the shares to me.
I lost big money betting on biotech binary events. Greed and the get-rich-quickly mentality did me in. ELN in 2005 did not get me out of WS; DNDN in 2007 did not get me out of WS; many big plays last year and this year that went sour did not get me out of WS either. Depending on how things shape up as days/months pass, ARNA today may not completely get me out of WS but definitely gets me out of biotech binary events. Failures are water under the bridge. Regrets salvage nothing. Despite that fortunes are lost, dreams destroyed and ambitions abolished, life goes on, a lot poorer than before. But that is life and and life is still beautiful!
Regardless of whether I shall continue my WS participation, this post concludes my posting in this thread. Thank you and others very much for many inspiring discussions (not all pleasant at all times --- and I once again sincerely apologize for my occasional misbehaviour). Let me take this opportunity in my final post to wish you and every one all the very best!
lazycatcat
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I think it might be regretful to give up on ITMN. It could be a repeat of DNDN. With your experience with DNDN, you can almost repeat verbatim on ITMN play in next two years ...
Think about it and we probably can work together on ITMN.
Think about it and we probably can work together on ITMN.
CAT: Could you please kindly give me the link for IB (Interactive Brokers?) again?
How are you doing lately? Wish all goes well for you!
TradeFreedom was bought by Scotia Bank and the operations were migrated to Scotiaitrade as of today, which doesn't want to offer me the commission structure TradeFreedom offered me. As such, I am on the market for an online broker again. What suggestions do you have? And could you please kindly give me the link for IB (Interactive Brokers?) again? I remember you gave it to me once before but I have difficulties finding it. Thanks a lot in advance!
As for positions and DD's, my brokerage account has been decimated since early May (after DNDN's approval and ITMN's CRL). I also sadly missed the VHC, LVS, DNDN and HGSI great runs during my extended exile. When I finally decided to get back in, ARNA nearly became the last nail in my WS participation coffin. Only thanks to DCTH's recent good performance after the 6.75 dilution that am I able to get a small stake back to continue my betting.
As of today, I have a hand in some DCTH, SIGA, CLSN, BAC and MGM shares and/or close-to-the-money JAN. 2011 calls). SIGA's contract announcement last week made PIP run even harder in %age terms (SIGA ran from 8 to today's 14 in 4 days whereas PIP ran from around 2 to the high of 4.95 today in two days). The way PIP ran over the last couple of days got me to think that I am late to the party at this level (closed around 4 today, found it via SIGA last Friday night, did not have the balls to chase this morning nor the balls to short it at lunch) but I will keep an eye on it.
I read your post on ITMN. Yes, it has nearly doubled from the CRL low but it has sold the Hep C rights for 175M. That is surely a good load of cash to have in the coffer. The way I see the problem, though, is that the disease it targets to treat is rather rare and it will likely take a long time to even recruit the trial patients, leaving alone the outcome of the trial. My stake is rather limited now. I shall pass ITMN.
You like research and if you do spend time on the issues I am long, let me know of your thought. Again, thanks a lot in advance and the very best of lucks!
p.s. If anybody else has suggestions for a cheap yet reliable online broker for me, please post the link and I thank you in advance! I also wish everybody the very best of lucks!
How are you doing lately? Wish all goes well for you!
TradeFreedom was bought by Scotia Bank and the operations were migrated to Scotiaitrade as of today, which doesn't want to offer me the commission structure TradeFreedom offered me. As such, I am on the market for an online broker again. What suggestions do you have? And could you please kindly give me the link for IB (Interactive Brokers?) again? I remember you gave it to me once before but I have difficulties finding it. Thanks a lot in advance!
As for positions and DD's, my brokerage account has been decimated since early May (after DNDN's approval and ITMN's CRL). I also sadly missed the VHC, LVS, DNDN and HGSI great runs during my extended exile. When I finally decided to get back in, ARNA nearly became the last nail in my WS participation coffin. Only thanks to DCTH's recent good performance after the 6.75 dilution that am I able to get a small stake back to continue my betting.
As of today, I have a hand in some DCTH, SIGA, CLSN, BAC and MGM shares and/or close-to-the-money JAN. 2011 calls). SIGA's contract announcement last week made PIP run even harder in %age terms (SIGA ran from 8 to today's 14 in 4 days whereas PIP ran from around 2 to the high of 4.95 today in two days). The way PIP ran over the last couple of days got me to think that I am late to the party at this level (closed around 4 today, found it via SIGA last Friday night, did not have the balls to chase this morning nor the balls to short it at lunch) but I will keep an eye on it.
I read your post on ITMN. Yes, it has nearly doubled from the CRL low but it has sold the Hep C rights for 175M. That is surely a good load of cash to have in the coffer. The way I see the problem, though, is that the disease it targets to treat is rather rare and it will likely take a long time to even recruit the trial patients, leaving alone the outcome of the trial. My stake is rather limited now. I shall pass ITMN.
You like research and if you do spend time on the issues I am long, let me know of your thought. Again, thanks a lot in advance and the very best of lucks!
p.s. If anybody else has suggestions for a cheap yet reliable online broker for me, please post the link and I thank you in advance! I also wish everybody the very best of lucks!
lazycatcat
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The weblink is:
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ibg/main.php
Welcome back ! ITMN is surely quite interesting and we can talk further later ...
Thanks a million, CAT!
I am not an easy-to-quit guy. As long as I can maintain a stake (however small it may be), I will stay in the game.
Biotech can be a gold mine should one be on the right side; it is surely a slaughter house if one is on the wrong side. Through the short track of this thread, you have probably witnessed plenty already. It is via this space that large sums of money floated into and out of my brokerage account time and again, and very quickly. Last week saw SIGA and PIP exploded; today brought another FDA rejection, AMLN and ALKS got slaughtered; not long ago ARNA and VVUS got decimated ...... Wish I had a strategy aiming at escaping the fast fortune breakers earlier, sigh! The only protection I ever played was ITMN and I missed 17 points in one day!! Don't play these binary events if the bank account and the heart cannot take them!!!
lazycatcat
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Straight betting of binary event turned out to be too risky and the reward probably was too small. So the strategies I am developing for bio are:
1. Curling Strategy
2. Bet on non-event before big events
3. Binary betting if chances are good.
Bio is good in that it is very volatile depending on event but could be quite stable before event. So, as long as a bio company is good in liquidity, its upcoming events are speculatible.
ITMN has no liquidity issue till end of 2015. It shall have around $250 M at end of 2010. $86M debt is not due till 2015. So, its upcoming events of Eurpean approval and further trials are interesting events to speculate starting NOW.
