精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[newer]

CMG.TO(not CML.TO)

Its main product is Star which is good at thermal production simulation(like oil production in oil-sand). Its two main competitors are SLB and another one which was bought by Halliburton. Basically there are no other rivals on the horizon. Its growth depends on oil price. It was speculated before that it would be bought by some oil company. Note that major oil companies(countries too) are securing not only oil fields but also software resources. Therefore, it is under the radar of major oil companies.

The previous high in 2007 was caused by high oil price and speculation of being taken-over. The surge in recent months is a puzzle for me. I agree its current price is a bit high.

Quickly digged into this company. The financials look good but current valuation is rather expensive: ~18 M shares outstanding at $26 per share = $470 M market cap with earning of roughly $18 M per year, for a P/E of 26.

Looked back from 2003 and its peak profitable year might be 2007 and 2010. The key question on this company is how competitive its products are and what are the future growth rate ? Its 2010 growth over 2009 is rather impressive but how sustainable it is ?

Do you have any ideas on these questions ?

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for the explanation. The gross and after-tax margin of CML are very high at 75% and 35%, respectively. The only other company in the same category of such high margin that I am aware of is x.to.

Now, x.to runs Toronto Exchange and has a certain degree of monopoly. For CML.TO, do you know why its margin is so high ? Is it due to patents behind the software or something else ?

 

[newer]

It is CMG.TO. Are you sure that we are talking about the same company?

Thanks for the explanation. The gross and after-tax margin of CML are very high at 75% and 35%, respectively. The only other company in the same category of such high margin that I am aware of is x.to.

Now, x.to runs Toronto Exchange and has a certain degree of monopoly. For CML.TO, do you know why its margin is so high ? Is it due to patents behind the software or something else ?

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing on DCTH. It seems Mar $11 call may be the way to go although longer term calls could also be done.

Will take a look into other bios in your posting. If ITMN is rejected again, that will be interesting ....

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for the leads. Will dig into them shortly ...

I am looking at S&P 500 and Dow charts in the periods of 1950 to 1965 and 1980 to 1990. If the next bull market is half as strong (200% instead of 400%), long-term holders will be handsomely rewarded.

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing, Jia. Your pace of trading/work is a lot faster. Try to keep pace.

On bank side, Q1 report by JPM shall provide how banks are doing in US ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for the details, Jia. I don't currently have positions in DNDN nor DCTH. March DCTH option doesn't imply huge volatility (~10%) and I don't know what to make of it. Market probably doesn't take the upcoming FDA news with too much seriousness. Maybe DCTH's volatility is underestimated ...

 

[Aldan]

do you have any research and opinions on energy and precious metal stocks such as ABX, SLW, TLM etc?

 

[lazycatcat]

Do you have any special insight into these companies ? For instance, SLW is worth $12B but its revenue is only $360 M. Any investor must have insight into their reserves etc.

Personally I find these insights very hard to get as an amateur investor.

 

[布莱克·飝]

呵呵，终见牛人。

 

[ert0000]

Technical trading is NEVER valid on a news driven stock... But I see someone is accumulating DCTH today. I think today was the bottom, from the chart a High wave was informed, just need another day to confirm.

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My prior experience with DNDN tells me that DCTH is entering into a highly volatile period. Big money is involved here. 8 million shorts won't surely sit idle. FUD's will be spread and the PPS will move violently. My position is already fully committed, helmet on and seatbelt fastened,

 

[紫檀凝香]

好贴！好几十页，好多要看和学习的了。。。

 

[Aldan]

Yes, I do indeed have my opinions (economists are surely full of opinions, good or bad). In an upswing, energy and precious metals will surely do well in general --- from a trend point of view, not on a daily basis. But I don't play these stocks and as such, my opinions are as good as any other --- worthless.

your response is much appreciated-i am still watching.

good luck trading.

 

[加京游子]

Technical trading is NEVER valid on a news driven stock... But I see someone is accumulating DCTH today. I think today was the bottom, from the chart a High wave was informed, just need another day to confirm.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

My prior experience with DNDN tells me that DCTH is entering into a highly volatile period. Big money is involved here. 8 million shorts won't surely sit idle. FUD's will be spread and the PPS will move violently. My position is already fully committed, helmet on and seatbelt fastened,

Hey, you are very good at calling a DCTH local bottom. Did Eamon telegragh you the investor presentation slides yesterday? Hahaha

 

[ert0000]

Are you kidding? I know nothing about FA so I never touch any biotech except ZLCS, which has a nice trading pattern. I have sold ZLCS and I want to find another one.
BTW, yesterday was a typical buying point for DCTH. Today it closed at exactly MA(50), things become more interesting now.

Hey, you are very good at calling a DCTH local bottom. Did Eamon telegragh you the investor presentation slides yesterday? Hahaha