精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

SIGA, CLSN, AEZS (AEZ.TO), and DCTH

SIGA: Today's breakout of a tight trading range with rising volume indicates to me one of three things: 1) The SBA appeal is about to be announced as victorious; 2) The BARDA contract is about to be officially announced; or 3) Settlement with PIP is nearing. It could be none of the above, simply a technical breakout after basing for quite some time, or all of the above (the first two items lead to the same consequence). Regardless, I am more than happy to see the gain.

CLSN: Today's breakdown with huge volume is a puzzle. But with the multiple of average volume, I read trading as capitulation and hence doubled down at 2.15.

AEZS: No particular news yesterday at the dog and pony show, just pipeline and data reviews. I nevertheless like it a lot. It is also trading in Toronto (AEZ), so I sold AEZS and bought AEZ.TO simultaneously, no change in position.

DCTH: No FDA NDA announcement yet. Consolidation is good going forward.

Still waiting for SIGA Claus to deliver in a big way, not many days left before Xmas.

 

[加京游子]

CAT：Sincere congratulations on your ITMN!

That is indeed a very nice surprise Xmas present Santa (CHMP Claus) delivers to ITMN longs, and a few days earlier too. Enjoy!

SIGA: I have sold March 17.5 calls against my 11 and 12 calls --- a lone seller yesterday and today. My gains will be capped should a surge happen before I buy back.

DCTH: I have sold Jan. 10 and 11 calls against
my March 7 and 8 calls. My gains will also be capped
should a surge happen before I buy back --- missed the mini bear raid today to buy back.

CLSN: The last few days were simply brutal. I sold my last batch of covered calls to add at 2 today. Hate to long these many shares but 2 is too appealing to sit back and let pass.

AEZ.TO: Steady rises are good for long-term
holdings. Really don't like any 10%+ move up in any single day but Mr. Market does what it wants.

As of now, I am biotech exclusive. Don't even attempt to try this if you are not prepared to lose all.

 

[newer]

nice if you hold ITMN.

I think it might be regretful to give up on ITMN. It could be a repeat of DNDN. With your experience with DNDN, you can almost repeat verbatim on ITMN play in next two years ...

Think about it and we probably can work together on ITMN.

 

[lazycatcat]

ITMN

I didn't gain a lot on ITMN since I was expecting 1st Quarter to be European decision. Lousy due diligence.

However, it is quite obvious that there is risk profits to be made from ITMN. It doesn't take a lot of reading on playing bio and my ways are as follows:
- Determine significant events ahead.
- Bet on the period of no events without protection or bet on the events with protection.

I bet on periods of no events on ITMN and thus reduced profit. Same thing occurred for ARNA. I played for events on DNDN and made a bit better profits.

It is a pity that ITMN's opportunity was gone. Now I need to look into Jia's other bio positions.

Newer: If you are following Jia, why not join us in doing some tracking of key dates and maybe some financials. Bio is not hard to figure out because:
- Nobody really knows anything about the drugs.
- All we need to track is upcoming events and make sure the company has enough cash (forget about debt as long as it is not due near-term) to live to that event dates.

Once these are determined, just look out for arbitration opportunities. Options are not priced very rationally in bio.

 

[lazycatcat]

WFC and USB

I know you are not interested in "small" profits, Jia. If economy is truly recovering, I think there are still upsides in WFC and USB. For WFC, Jan 2012 $30 put can be sold for $4.4. Not bad for a 15% return.

What happen if economy tanks ? That is even better as long as you have future cash flow. Then you can buy these shares at even cheaper price.

Just a thought on making some less risky money ...

 

[newer]

- Bet on the period of no events without protection or bet on the events with protection. <=== good idea!

I didn't gain a lot on ITMN since I was expecting 1st Quarter to be European decision. Lousy due diligence.

However, it is quite obvious that there is risk profits to be made from ITMN. It doesn't take a lot of reading on playing bio and my ways are as follows:
- Determine significant events ahead.
- Bet on the period of no events without protection or bet on the events with protection.

I bet on periods of no events on ITMN and thus reduced profit. Same thing occurred for ARNA. I played for events on DNDN and made a bit better profits.

It is a pity that ITMN's opportunity was gone. Now I need to look into Jia's other bio positions.

Newer: If you are following Jia, why not join us in doing some tracking of key dates and maybe some financials. Bio is not hard to figure out because:
- Nobody really knows anything about the drugs.
- All we need to track is upcoming events and make sure the company has enough cash (forget about debt as long as it is not due near-term) to live to that event dates.

Once these are determined, just look out for arbitration opportunities. Options are not priced very rationally in bio.

 

[lazycatcat]

newer: Any good ideas lately ? I learnt a lot from Jia on bio. This is an area with a lot of excitement. I only play a type of arbitration, most of the time....

 

[加京游子]

I didn't gain a lot on ITMN since I was expecting 1st Quarter to be European decision. Lousy due diligence.

However, it is quite obvious that there is risk profits to be made from ITMN. It doesn't take a lot of reading on playing bio and my ways are as follows:
- Determine significant events ahead.
- Bet on the period of no events without protection or bet on the events with protection.

I bet on periods of no events on ITMN and thus reduced profit. Same thing occurred for ARNA. I played for events on DNDN and made a bit better profits.

It is a pity that ITMN's opportunity was gone. Now I need to look into Jia's other bio positions.

Newer: If you are following Jia, why not join us in doing some tracking of key dates and maybe some financials. Bio is not hard to figure out because:
- Nobody really knows anything about the drugs.
- All we need to track is upcoming events and make sure the company has enough cash (forget about debt as long as it is not due near-term) to live to that event dates.

Once these are determined, just look out for arbitration opportunities. Options are not priced very rationally in bio.

ITMN's opportunity is not gone! I am doing my DD on it again. Stevie Cohen (SAC Capital) may be able to get it back up to 50 again or even higher but I won't bet on that --- sitting on the sideline for as long as I have to and waiting for a trigger to long puts in a significant way --- this event will either be European approval or QER.

DD can only go that far. Luck has to lot to do in biotech. I am waiting for my lucks to turn but as of now, I have to make my stake back from Mr. Market. My new found strategy has been working well recently and I will keep pursuing that unless there is a change.

 

[加京游子]

I know you are not interested in "small" profits, Jia. If economy is truly recovering, I think there are still upsides in WFC and USB. For WFC, Jan 2012 $30 put can be sold for $4.4. Not bad for a 15% return.

What happen if economy tanks ? That is even better as long as you have future cash flow. Then you can buy these shares at even cheaper price.

Just a thought on making some less risky money ...

Thanks a lot for your heart-felt suggestion on selling WFC puts, CAT! I would jump in hand over fist if I had the capital.

It is not that I am not interested in "small" profits. To the contrary, "profits always take care of themselves", no profit is ever too small to me and I would kill to put my hands on any profit whereever and whenever I can. But my hands are tight in a number of ways: 1) I don't have the time nor the smartness/savvy/skills to trade for profits with high frequencies; 2) Being non-technical the way I am, the only thing I can go for is fundamental (seeing the forest behind the trees is my motto); and 3) It is a matter of putting limited resources (highly limited) into competing uses. Being dictated by these limitations/considerations, I consiously go for the potentially high rewards at the expense of high risks. Unfortunately, records up to date have time and again undeniably proven that more often than not, I am wrong and consequently, sustain repeated heavy losses if not disastrous wipeouts. But as they say, it is not over until it is over. And I shall keep pursuing the game in the way I feel comfortable.

Selling long-term puts is simply not in the card for me at the moment and in the forseeable future --- it ties up too much working capital (one discipline I have held very dearly to my heart and my head for quite some time now is non-margin. Options in biotech are already mother of all risks, I have no choice but to avoid margin). After all these ups and downs, I am back to square one --- wealth creation rather than wealth protection, sigh, a very sorrow sigh!

At this stage of the game (again), the issue is not how much I want to win but rather how much I am willing and prepard to lose. A repeated and unambiguous answer has uniformly been: all of whatever I have with Mr. Market now --- no new cash infusion, that is.

 

[加京游子]

DCTH: Mr. Market's irrationality at its best/worst!

Co completed the long-awaited NDA today, an undisputable milestone in its history however one slices it. Yet, Mr. Market sold off on this news. Shorts increased their positions, stop-loss orders were harvested, whatever. At the end of the day, the stock closed down significantly. As a contrarian, I resolvedly took the opportunity to close out my sold Jan. 10 and 11 calls, and hence keep my March 7 and 8 calls intact. Let time judge if these were good moves or not.

Reliving the DNDN experience in 2010 with DCTH in 2011, I am expecting many single days of +-10%+ going forward in the next 6 to 8 months. DNDN was my first major FDA approval experience and I am going to live the DCTH experience very differently! Richard Puzdar was DNDN's arch enemy and the sole FDA engineer in DNDN's 2007 non-approval ahead of the PDUFA date. Maybe, just maybe, he will be DCTH's single best asset to have in the FDA. Who is RP? The FDA's director of oncology drugs!

Has my time with Mr. Market ultimately come, yet again? Only Mr. Time will render the ultimate judgement!!!!!

出于与市场没有关系的原因，心境不是很好、情绪不是很高，没有吟诗填词的愿望，贴上今年四月二十九日晚填的旧词，很有信心明年中期的某一天DCTH将让我回味今年四月二十九日的DNDN --- 算是预支吧！

念奴娇（*）-贺DNDN Provenge获FDA批准上市

日历翻到四二九(1)，人类福音天降！狄恩狄恩（2），街传是当今一大疯牛！成量渐增，价位逐涨，屡屡创新高。蝴蝶纷飞，吓破多少鼠胆 （3）。

追忆零七零五 （4），神药未获批，冤鬼频添。晴天霹雳，旦夕间巨产突变重债（5）。山河重拾，终将再现我往日风采！人生如戏，股事安能例外？

* --- 受词格限制，言犹未尽
1 --- 2010年4月29日
2 --- DNDN
3 --- 2010年3月19日期权到期，为让多权作废并配合振仓低价吸筹，有人16、17连续两天卖出4800个4月定价30元的空权、卖出4800个4月定价20元的空权并同时买入9600个4月定价25元的空权（一个合同代表一百股），摆出一副熊态蝴蝶架势。一时洛阳纸贵，空家喉舌竞相报道，大加渲染，不少散户被振出局
4 --- 2007年5月
5 --- 药没获批的公告2007年5月9日早晨7点发布，我10日早上在没接到通知的情况下被TDWaterhouse清仓

 

[lazycatcat]

DCTH

Co completed the long-awaited NDA today, an undisputable milestone in its history however one slices it. Yet, Mr. Market sold off on this news. Shorts increased their positions, stop-loss orders were harvested, whatever. At the end of the day, the stock closed down significantly. As a contrarian, I resolvedly took the opportunity to close out my sold Jan. 10 and 11 calls, and hence keep my March 7 and 8 calls intact. Let time judge if these were good moves or not.

Reliving the DNDN experience in 2010 with DCTH in 2011, I am expecting many single days of +-10%+ going forward in the next 6 to 8 months. DNDN was my first major FDA approval experience and I am going to live the DCTH experience very differently! Richard Puzdar was DNDN's arch enemy and the sole FDA engineer in DNDN's 2007 non-approval ahead of the PDUFA date. Maybe, just maybe, he will be DCTH's single best asset to have in the FDA. Who is RP? The FDA's director of oncology drugs!

Has my time with Mr. Market ultimately come, yet again? Only Mr. Time will render the ultimate judgement!!!!!

出于与市场没有关系的原因，心境不是很好、情绪不是很高，没有吟诗填词的愿望，贴上今年四月二十九日晚填的旧词，很有信心明年中期的某一天DCTH将让我回味今年四月二十九日的DNDN --- 算是预支吧！

念奴娇（*）-贺DNDN Provenge获FDA批准上市

日历翻到四二九(1)，人类福音天降！狄恩狄恩（2），街传是当今一大疯牛！成量渐增，价位逐涨，屡屡创新高。蝴蝶纷飞，吓破多少鼠胆 （3）。

追忆零七零五 （4），神药未获批，冤鬼频添。晴天霹雳，旦夕间巨产突变重债（5）。山河重拾，终将再现我往日风采！人生如戏，股事安能例外？

* --- 受词格限制，言犹未尽
1 --- 2010年4月29日
2 --- DNDN
3 --- 2010年3月19日期权到期，为让多权作废并配合振仓低价吸筹，有人16、17连续两天卖出4800个4月定价30元的空权、卖出4800个4月定价20元的空权并同时买入9600个4月定价25元的空权（一个合同代表一百股），摆出一副熊态蝴蝶架势。一时洛阳纸贵，空家喉舌竞相报道，大加渲染，不少散户被振出局
4 --- 2007年5月
5 --- 药没获批的公告2007年5月9日早晨7点发布，我10日早上在没接到通知的情况下被TDWaterhouse清仓

Thanks for sharing on DCTH. I like sharply down stocks and will take a look. The implied volatility of DCTH is not very high. Do you mind sharing some significant events down the road ? I will dig into it as well ...

 

[lazycatcat]

newer: oils etc

I looked into ATH.TO when it was $11.50 but didn't buy. The value in it was rather obvious. Is there any special oil shares you can share ?

Not sure if you are following rulings on credit cards. MA and V are heavily influenced by legislation based on my study two years ago. Now is interesting time to look into AXP, MA and V. I selected WFC over AXP when they were below $10. Should have done both !

 

[lazycatcat]

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Jia and everyone who follows this string of postings. I wish 2011 be a prosperous year for all.

Jia, I quickly digged into DCTH. It seems FDA will make grant of fast track around Feb 22nd (60 days from NDA submission). Implied volatility is not very high based on option pricing in June. The company has around $1 cash per share.

What will happen if FDA grants or not grants fast track ? The therapy seems to be promising based on III results. Do you mind sharing your take ?

I have been following normalization of bank earnings for two years. In 2011, there is a possibility of sudden upward spike. JPM may raise dividend or do share buyback in Q1 based on previous conference calls. Its Feb $50 call is not priced for any surprises I think.

S&P is still at LEH crisis level. If it normalizes 20% upward as GS predicted, big banks (JPM, WFC, USB) should have quite big upsides. The assets they purchased at height of crisis shall be very valuable if they can be valued at normal price. Just my take ....

 

[newer]

I am interested in CMG.TO. This is one of the three major service companies in petroleum industry and has solid revenue. It can be a take-over candidate in the future. Its current price looks a bit high for me. A pull-back(if there is one) will be a good buy opportunity. SLB is the leader in this field.

I looked into ATH.TO when it was $11.50 but didn't buy. The value in it was rather obvious. Is there any special oil shares you can share ?

Not sure if you are following rulings on credit cards. MA and V are heavily influenced by legislation based on my study two years ago. Now is interesting time to look into AXP, MA and V. I selected WFC over AXP when they were below $10. Should have done both !

 

[lazycatcat]

cml.to

Quickly digged into this company. The financials look good but current valuation is rather expensive: ~18 M shares outstanding at $26 per share = $470 M market cap with earning of roughly $18 M per year, for a P/E of 26.

Looked back from 2003 and its peak profitable year might be 2007 and 2010. The key question on this company is how competitive its products are and what are the future growth rate ? Its 2010 growth over 2009 is rather impressive but how sustainable it is ?

Do you have any ideas on these questions ?