Best of lucks with ITMN, CAT! To the best of my knowledge, ITMN has the very best cash position in the entire bio space after selling the rights of its Hep C candidate to its partner (Roche). I haven't figured out a working strategy yet and am still in the process of trying and searching --- every situation is so very much different. At the moment and for the foreseeable future, it is a matter of competing use of limited resources.
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精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
Best of lucks with ITMN, CAT! To the best of my knowledge, ITMN has the very best cash position in the entire bio space after selling the rights of its Hep C candidate to its partner (Roche). I haven't figured out a working strategy yet and am still in the process of trying and searching --- every situation is so very much different. At the moment and for the foreseeable future, it is a matter of competing use of limited resources.
lazycatcat
新手上路
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- 2009-08-26
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Best of lucks with ITMN, CAT! To the best of my knowledge, ITMN has the very best cash position in the entire bio space after selling the rights of its Hep C candidate to its partner (Roche). I haven't figured out a working strategy yet and am still in the process of trying and searching --- every situation is so very much different. At the moment and for the foreseeable future, it is a matter of competing use of limited resources.
I think selling ITMN Jan and/or April puts below $10 probably is worth the risk. The rationale is if European approval fails, the company should still have enough to carry out PIII test. Market probably won't let go ITMN before PIII results are known.
Just some thoughts. An interesting question is how much ITMN will be worth if EU approval is obtained. At 2B market cap, it will be around $40 per share ...
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
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- 15
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ITMN's cash burn rate seems to be $100 M per year and thus current reserve can support it for two years ($250M at year-end).
European decision in H1 of 2011 and US FDA update in Q1 of 2011. Not sure what to expect of FDA ? Definition of what type of data is needed for potential approval ?
European decision in H1 of 2011 and US FDA update in Q1 of 2011. Not sure what to expect of FDA ? Definition of what type of data is needed for potential approval ?
ITMN's cash burn rate seems to be $100 M per year and thus current reserve can support it for two years ($250M at year-end).
European decision in H1 of 2011 and US FDA update in Q1 of 2011. Not sure what to expect of FDA ? Definition of what type of data is needed for potential approval ?
CAT: if you like come-back plays, let me share with you two candidates: SVNT and SOMX. Both cos' drugs have been approved by the FDA. So the regulatory risks are gone. SVNT's drug will be shipped to distributors by the end of the month. The co was on the sale block since P3 trial results but the valuation got out of hand and consequently could not find a buyer. The announcement came out last week and the stock lost about 50% of valuation instantly. It is on its own selling the approved drug as of now. Estimates of sales are wildly ranging but I think a median of the range is reasonable --- peak annual sales of about 400M (pricing is still unknown until shipment). The co just came out with 3Q ER tonight and the CC is on tomorrow morning. At this level, I find it a very compelling come-back play thesis. The huge scary paper loss in 3Q was primarily the result of warrant revalution (all exercised now, for money or no money --- the damned stock doubled and the co lost a ton of paper money because of the warrants). I will make a decision after listening to the CC.
SOMX is a very different story: .9 to 10 quickly and then back down to 2.5-2.6. Many factors were in play. It has signed P&G as a distribution partner but did not get much upfront payment. The main problem is the threat from generic competition (the co has yet to identify the co that filed for a generic NDA).
DNDN reported 3Q ER last night --- revenues fell short of analysts' estimates not because of insufficient demand but rather due to limited production capacity. The litigation settlement charge was out of my knowledge too.
My decision to exile from the market following my APPY devastation led to the let go of LVS and VHC, very heart breaking indeed. They are all，nonetheless，water under the bridge. The all mighty yours truly am working on a come back again. Got unspeakably lucky today ---- I wanted to selll my trading DCTH position at 8.57 late in the afternoon today but I keyed in the selling price at 5.57. Fortunately, the buy orders were quite big at the moment and I got filled at the average of 8.51. My godness, I sweated like hell after checking my order status after market close. Oh boy, what a lucky man I was today! Should my sell order of 5.57 get filled, not only my own calls positions would have taken a hard hit but also DCTHland would have been filled with bear raid conspiracy theorists. Luck, pure luck! A glass of cognac was in order, wasn't it?
What is your email address again? I feel it more convenient to communicate with email.
Do your own DD and let's share via email.
As always, the very best of lucks!
Sincere congratulations to those who long HGSI!
The FDA AC vote is 13-2 for recommending approval. How will Mr. Market react tomorrow? That is a question for shorts to ponder tonight. This may very well bankrupt a few hedge funds who are caught with their pants down, yet again.
Since ANRA, I have decided not to hold any position for such an all important binary event. I have no position in HGSI but would nonetheless like to offer my heart-felt congratulations to longs, if any here.
p.s. Just checked and HGSI AH trading has started, up she goes --- 28-30!
The FDA AC vote is 13-2 for recommending approval. How will Mr. Market react tomorrow? That is a question for shorts to ponder tonight. This may very well bankrupt a few hedge funds who are caught with their pants down, yet again.
Since ANRA, I have decided not to hold any position for such an all important binary event. I have no position in HGSI but would nonetheless like to offer my heart-felt congratulations to longs, if any here.
p.s. Just checked and HGSI AH trading has started, up she goes --- 28-30!
I have finally pulled the buy trigger for PIP and SIGA
PIP was acquired last Friday and yesterday; SIGA was bought today around lunch time.
I also long DCTH and CLSN.
DD's are needed if you happen to be interested in these issues. I am no longer sharing my DD's in this public forum --- discussions via email are welcomed and appreciated.
The very best of lucks in everyone's speculating/investing.
PIP was acquired last Friday and yesterday; SIGA was bought today around lunch time.
I also long DCTH and CLSN.
DD's are needed if you happen to be interested in these issues. I am no longer sharing my DD's in this public forum --- discussions via email are welcomed and appreciated.
The very best of lucks in everyone's speculating/investing.
DNDN to watch tomorrow
Should the CMS commitee be convinced that Provenge provides sufficient efficacy and thus accept to cover on-label use (what I expect), watch DNDN to explode exponentially; the PPS will otherwise suffer a severe haircut. This is yet another sort of binary event for DNDN. As such, I again hold no position but that is nonetheless subject to change at any moment. A life-extending paradigm-changing bloodless revolution in late-stage cancer treatment has to go through repeated binary events, what a sorry state of affairs the American Empire has found itself in!
To be more precise, it is only a hearing tomorrow and the final decision won't be made until next June. But the tone of the hearing should tell all. Maybe Stevie Cohen and George Soros will put up a good fight? I shall remain on the sideline looking in until a direction is all clear.
Should the CMS commitee be convinced that Provenge provides sufficient efficacy and thus accept to cover on-label use (what I expect), watch DNDN to explode exponentially; the PPS will otherwise suffer a severe haircut. This is yet another sort of binary event for DNDN. As such, I again hold no position but that is nonetheless subject to change at any moment. A life-extending paradigm-changing bloodless revolution in late-stage cancer treatment has to go through repeated binary events, what a sorry state of affairs the American Empire has found itself in!
To be more precise, it is only a hearing tomorrow and the final decision won't be made until next June. But the tone of the hearing should tell all. Maybe Stevie Cohen and George Soros will put up a good fight? I shall remain on the sideline looking in until a direction is all clear.
Thoughts on HGSI, DNDN, SIGA, PIP, SOMX, GM and so on
HGSI got an overwhelming positive vote from the FDA AC, PPS dropped and surprised me like hell. DNDN got an overwhelming positive vote from the CMS panel, PPS rosed as expected. Still flat on both.
SIGA got indirect news from the BARDA RFI, PPS rose. I liked SIGA at 11.47 on Tuesday and I still like it today at 12.35, added 1/4 March 11 calls. I liked PIP at 3.05 a few days ago and I still like it today at 3.59, added 2/5 shares. Averaged up both positions at about 20% higher.
To watch, SOMX is on sale AH upon a secondary announcement. No pricing is announced. Looking to get in when pricing is announced. GM IPO did well today, looking to buy a few puts when all durts are settled.
p.s. Liked DCTH at 5.6, 6.6, 7.6, 8.6, 9.6 and anything under 10. Fully loaded and holding March 7 and 8 calls.
Liked CLSN at 3.15 but don't like it at 3 today, sold 7/10 position (-0.15) to pay for SIGA and PIP additions with cash leftover to load either somx or MGM (liked MGM at 11 but did not like it at 13.6, a pretty nice trade there with Jan. 11 calls) or SVNT whichever comes to my comfort zone first. CLSN should have about 2-3 months to wait for me, don't want to park a big chunk of my scarce cash there, keeping 3/10 shares in case a piece of surprise news comes through.
Losing money consistently with BAC, cut loss a few days ago.
HGSI got an overwhelming positive vote from the FDA AC, PPS dropped and surprised me like hell. DNDN got an overwhelming positive vote from the CMS panel, PPS rosed as expected. Still flat on both.
SIGA got indirect news from the BARDA RFI, PPS rose. I liked SIGA at 11.47 on Tuesday and I still like it today at 12.35, added 1/4 March 11 calls. I liked PIP at 3.05 a few days ago and I still like it today at 3.59, added 2/5 shares. Averaged up both positions at about 20% higher.
To watch, SOMX is on sale AH upon a secondary announcement. No pricing is announced. Looking to get in when pricing is announced. GM IPO did well today, looking to buy a few puts when all durts are settled.
p.s. Liked DCTH at 5.6, 6.6, 7.6, 8.6, 9.6 and anything under 10. Fully loaded and holding March 7 and 8 calls.
Liked CLSN at 3.15 but don't like it at 3 today, sold 7/10 position (-0.15) to pay for SIGA and PIP additions with cash leftover to load either somx or MGM (liked MGM at 11 but did not like it at 13.6, a pretty nice trade there with Jan. 11 calls) or SVNT whichever comes to my comfort zone first. CLSN should have about 2-3 months to wait for me, don't want to park a big chunk of my scarce cash there, keeping 3/10 shares in case a piece of surprise news comes through.
Losing money consistently with BAC, cut loss a few days ago.
PIP vs SIGA: The Judge's Opinion
Just finished reading the Judge's Opinion. Here is the link for those interested. http://www.delawarebusinesslitigation.co...
I have no legal knowledge whatsoever and can't provide any analysis of the case. I long both for different reasons.
Just finished reading the Judge's Opinion. Here is the link for those interested. http://www.delawarebusinesslitigation.co...
I have no legal knowledge whatsoever and can't provide any analysis of the case. I long both for different reasons.
PIP popped but SIGA did not budge at all upon the news. Sold PIP trading position, keeping the core and added SIGA.
I have effectively entered into bull spreads in DCTH
Normally, I hate selling calls against my long positions with expected significant news pending. However, I did sell DCTH Jan. 10 and 11 calls last Friday and today against my March 7 and 8 calls, effectively entering into bull spreads. No guts to go for a long butterfly. Part of the proceeds was used to buy back PIP trading shares last Friday and the remaining will be deployed to add SIGA (as soon as tomorrow --- no fill today for March 12 calls at 2.5). This is done solely in light of what I expect from SIGA/PIP. I will have to reload DCTH should my positions be called away --- fully expect to do so (all will be gone should it close above 11 by Jan. OpEx; half gone if it closes above 10 but under 11; intact if it closes under 10). Being called away, I will bank the pricing differentials but out of position; staying intact, I will pocket the premia. This is essentially betting on which news comes first (NDA filing with the FDA vs official BARDA contract announcement/out of court settlement). I have previously repeated many times that timing Mr. Market is a highly risky game to play but at this particular moment, I feel compelled to do it and I can only wish that I am right at these high-stake bets. My positions are subject to changes instantly and constantly as developments in these issues evolve. Hope Santa will send a nice Xmas present to close out a year that started wonderfully but sucks in the middle!
Normally, I hate selling calls against my long positions with expected significant news pending. However, I did sell DCTH Jan. 10 and 11 calls last Friday and today against my March 7 and 8 calls, effectively entering into bull spreads. No guts to go for a long butterfly. Part of the proceeds was used to buy back PIP trading shares last Friday and the remaining will be deployed to add SIGA (as soon as tomorrow --- no fill today for March 12 calls at 2.5). This is done solely in light of what I expect from SIGA/PIP. I will have to reload DCTH should my positions be called away --- fully expect to do so (all will be gone should it close above 11 by Jan. OpEx; half gone if it closes above 10 but under 11; intact if it closes under 10). Being called away, I will bank the pricing differentials but out of position; staying intact, I will pocket the premia. This is essentially betting on which news comes first (NDA filing with the FDA vs official BARDA contract announcement/out of court settlement). I have previously repeated many times that timing Mr. Market is a highly risky game to play but at this particular moment, I feel compelled to do it and I can only wish that I am right at these high-stake bets. My positions are subject to changes instantly and constantly as developments in these issues evolve. Hope Santa will send a nice Xmas present to close out a year that started wonderfully but sucks in the middle!
Waiting for SIGA Claus and DCTH Claus to deliver
It took me all week last week to shuffle and reshuffle my deck, ultimately ending up with SIGA and DCTH only. DCTH has delivered one of the three expected pieces (CE Mark for Europe) today with the FDA NDA submission and Phase II results still to come. How will Mr. Market react? SIGA is still waiting for words from the BARDA. Will SIGA Claus and DCTH Claus deliver this year or next?
Fully positioned to wait and wait and then wait some longer.
It took me all week last week to shuffle and reshuffle my deck, ultimately ending up with SIGA and DCTH only. DCTH has delivered one of the three expected pieces (CE Mark for Europe) today with the FDA NDA submission and Phase II results still to come. How will Mr. Market react? SIGA is still waiting for words from the BARDA. Will SIGA Claus and DCTH Claus deliver this year or next?
Fully positioned to wait and wait and then wait some longer.
Mini-delivery by DCTH Claus today
Glad that after realizing the mistakes in selling Jan 10 and 11 calls against my March 7 and 8 calls for cash needs, Mr. Market gave me a full week to buy back and I had the balls to buy March 10 calls, ending up not missing a whole lot of today's abrupt pps pop. In spite of that the number of March 10 calls I bought last week do not fully cover the number of sold calls, I gain a good chunk of today's good pop. With today's technical breakout, it looks like my March 7 and 8 calls will be gone by Jan. OpEx. It is not a too bad deal at all for the positions to be called away (being called away, I will end up with a double for both the 7 and 8 calls) but I do lose a couple of months worth of time value.
It is time for SIGA Claus to deliver now, and in a significant way!!!!!
Glad that after realizing the mistakes in selling Jan 10 and 11 calls against my March 7 and 8 calls for cash needs, Mr. Market gave me a full week to buy back and I had the balls to buy March 10 calls, ending up not missing a whole lot of today's abrupt pps pop. In spite of that the number of March 10 calls I bought last week do not fully cover the number of sold calls, I gain a good chunk of today's good pop. With today's technical breakout, it looks like my March 7 and 8 calls will be gone by Jan. OpEx. It is not a too bad deal at all for the positions to be called away (being called away, I will end up with a double for both the 7 and 8 calls) but I do lose a couple of months worth of time value.
It is time for SIGA Claus to deliver now, and in a significant way!!!!!
It took me all week last week to shuffle and reshuffle my deck, ultimately ending up with SIGA and DCTH only. DCTH has delivered one of the three expected pieces (CE Mark for Europe) today with the FDA NDA submission and Phase II results still to come. How will Mr. Market react? SIGA is still waiting for words from the BARDA. Will SIGA Claus and DCTH Claus deliver this year or next?
Fully positioned to wait and wait and then wait some longer.
