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精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
Jia，
从盘面看，花街机构看来开始全面做多了，昨天聪明的机构应该全面covered空头。我全面1/2仓作多，并covered所有的空头，卖掉TZA，FAZ。我看好几个股票，我会给您发QQH。
谢谢您。
nepean_01:
谢谢分享你对大盘的看法及通过QQH推荐的股票！QQH我就不另外回了。
1）你我处境相差很大，你全职专业而我只能乘休息时间业余地看一眼，这决定了我们的选股及做法都有白天黑夜的区别。最为明显者莫过于你看图而为而我却拒绝看图，你可能一天内进进出出很多笔，我则很可能长时间内做不成一笔交易。另外，很可能我比你贪婪很多吧？ 给你举两个例子：a）我昨天收盘前7.05买了ECYT，今天很快就涨到了7.5，要是你，会卖吗？我没卖，结果以7.19收盘 --- 我认为说不准哪天醒来ECYT就10，11， 12， 15， 20成交呢 --- HGSI就是先例； b）我上礼拜四8.02买的DANG，5分钟后涨到8.31， 你会卖吗？我没卖，结果以8.12收盘；礼拜五很快涨到8.9，我还是没卖；前两天跌到了7.42，我7.45加了，昨天8.68卖了，原来8.02买的没动，因为我认为DANG严重超卖，原来的仓位是为了长期握着的。 我现有的RENN也是为了长期握着的，如果近日内加仓则是想短期出手。
2）这是公关论坛，每个人都对自己的投机行为负责，不存在误导问题。你如果遇到好的机会（比如哪个股票一天跌15-60%），请直接在这楼里推荐，我会自己做完作业后才决定的。
3）多年的记录反复明显地表明我只有买跌才能赚点小钱，没有一次买涨不是被套就是因没耐性而赔钱。最近一次的例子就是为了赶FB IPO而追涨，高价位买了RENN，但FB IPO可能推迟，另外，FB的Q1 revenues不如以前了，也给RENN近期走势带来了不少阻力。我呢，则认为这是降低成本增仓的好机会，本来就没满仓。
4）我绝不卖空任何股票，最多买点puts。
祝你及所有股市参与者都发大财！
VVUS's instant hard-on pill got approved and ARNA had a monstrous boner ...
sticking up in the $ssholes of Adumb Fraustein, Madttew Herps (from Forbes), Shrheli (from Gaicowire), and ARNA's short sellers! There is nothing I like better! A moral victory on top of the monetary rewards! From where I sit, this is only a prelude to what is in store for the days to come before the all-or- none AdComm !
I sold a portion of my trading position at the close. This is not to say that I see 2.6 as the local top. On the contrary, I feel there is much more room for ARNA to run up prior to May 10. I took some off just to be prudent.
sticking up in the $ssholes of Adumb Fraustein, Madttew Herps (from Forbes), Shrheli (from Gaicowire), and ARNA's short sellers! There is nothing I like better! A moral victory on top of the monetary rewards! From where I sit, this is only a prelude to what is in store for the days to come before the all-or- none AdComm !
I sold a portion of my trading position at the close. This is not to say that I see 2.6 as the local top. On the contrary, I feel there is much more room for ARNA to run up prior to May 10. I took some off just to be prudent.
lazycatcat
新手上路
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It is great to see nepean_01, Jia and Lao Xian to merge all discussions to Jia's thread. Maintaining multi threads is difficult, especially for looking up previous details.
I think the approach by Jia and nepean_01 makes most sense by focusing on individual companies. I find it very hard to focus on the overall market.
My focus area is not in vogue since it mainly concerns bank stocks. The best part of the profit has already being made by the market and the remainder takes time....
Trading is not my expertise but sometimes trading ideas could be interesting ...
I think the approach by Jia and nepean_01 makes most sense by focusing on individual companies. I find it very hard to focus on the overall market.
My focus area is not in vogue since it mainly concerns bank stocks. The best part of the profit has already being made by the market and the remainder takes time....
Trading is not my expertise but sometimes trading ideas could be interesting ...
Do not be scared off by profits --- my post to the ARNA YMB
Fear, greed and hope always dominate day-to-day trading --- human nature! Yet, more often than not, speculators get the mix of fear, greed and hope wrongly placed! They let fear take control when they should really be greedy like today --- fear of losing paper profits. Have the courage to stay with your correct buys yesterdy, the day before, ...... On the other hand, they let hope take control when they should really be fearful like the day we broke down from 3 --- "Oh well, I don't sell so any loss is only on paper", they comfort themselves, in addition to the hope that the pps will one day rebound! For longs who have done their DD and made a commitment with conviction, paper losses should remain paper losses and paper profits should remain paper profits equally --- but your brokerage account balance shows a loss is a loss, paper or real. By the same token, a profit is a profit, paper or real. Why being hopeful for a loss recovery but fearful of a profit disappearing？If you did not buy yesterdy or the day before, how could you have a paper profit to be fearful of losing?
Taking some off the table is prudent, though. Profits always take care of themselves whereas losses never do. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush, as they say. A 10% loss takes 11% gain to just offset. Nobody becomes poorer by taking profits! For the course of my posting on this board, I shall remain a voice of reason and calm, regardless of the pps exploding upwards or breaking downwards. I have repeatedly stated that I remain a swing trader until Lorcaserin gains FDA approval.
Fear, greed and hope always dominate day-to-day trading --- human nature! Yet, more often than not, speculators get the mix of fear, greed and hope wrongly placed! They let fear take control when they should really be greedy like today --- fear of losing paper profits. Have the courage to stay with your correct buys yesterdy, the day before, ...... On the other hand, they let hope take control when they should really be fearful like the day we broke down from 3 --- "Oh well, I don't sell so any loss is only on paper", they comfort themselves, in addition to the hope that the pps will one day rebound! For longs who have done their DD and made a commitment with conviction, paper losses should remain paper losses and paper profits should remain paper profits equally --- but your brokerage account balance shows a loss is a loss, paper or real. By the same token, a profit is a profit, paper or real. Why being hopeful for a loss recovery but fearful of a profit disappearing？If you did not buy yesterdy or the day before, how could you have a paper profit to be fearful of losing?
Taking some off the table is prudent, though. Profits always take care of themselves whereas losses never do. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush, as they say. A 10% loss takes 11% gain to just offset. Nobody becomes poorer by taking profits! For the course of my posting on this board, I shall remain a voice of reason and calm, regardless of the pps exploding upwards or breaking downwards. I have repeatedly stated that I remain a swing trader until Lorcaserin gains FDA approval.
antimachine
CFC Class System Suck
Fear, greed and hope always dominate day-to-day trading --- human nature! Yet, more often than not, speculators get the mix of fear, greed and hope wrongly placed! They let fear take control when they should really be greedy like today --- fear of losing paper profits. Have the courage to stay with your correct buys yesterdy, the day before, ...... On the other hand, they let hope take control when they should really be fearful like the day we broke down from 3 --- "Oh well, I don't sell so any loss is only on paper", they comfort themselves, in addition to the hope that the pps will one day rebound! For longs who have done their DD and made a commitment with conviction, paper losses should remain paper losses and paper profits should remain paper profits equally --- but your brokerage account balance shows a loss is a loss, paper or real. By the same token, a profit is a profit, paper or real. Why being hopeful for a loss recovery but fearful of a profit disappearing？If you did not buy yesterdy or the day before, how could you have a paper profit to be fearful of losing?
Taking some off the table is prudent, though. Profits always take care of themselves whereas losses never do. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush, as they say. A 10% loss takes 11% gain to just offset. Nobody becomes poorer by taking profits! For the course of my posting on this board, I shall remain a voice of reason and calm, regardless of the pps exploding upwards or breaking downwards. I have repeatedly stated that I remain a swing trader until Lorcaserin gains FDA approval.
Then, good luck to that. Also see my post about flip flop, no offense intended.
lazycatcat
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Then, good luck to that. Also see my post about flip flop, no offense intended.
Jia and nepean_01 are professional and therefore it is not good for amateurs to give them advice like "Beware of risks of the market etc ...". It is very generous for them to share a lot of great ideas and experiences.
Therefore, let's show respect.
This thread is about winning or losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. For mom and pop type of players, like earning $100 on $2000 etc, another thread shall be opened....
Then, good luck to that. Also see my post about flip flop, no offense intended.
Are you accusing me of being flip flop on ARNA? Let me say a few things to you then.
1) Telling from your post in YMB, we are co-owners of ARNA. I wish you the very best with ARNA, potentially one of the biotech stories of 2012.
2) You are wrong accusing me of selling 50%. No, I did sell 1/2. Did you read my "I 2X my stake today" post? I sold the added 3C --- I would kick myself not to take that 45% profits off the table on an addition position after having those calls in my account for three days. Granted, I am a lousy day trader, not managing to sell them at .95.
3) When I posted that I sold out at 3.37, the board went crazy after me, accusing me of all things. When I posted about my selling the 5C at .72 for a mispirce, the board went crazy after me. I reloaded around 2.8-2.9 and when I posted that I sold out around 2-7-2.8 for a loss, I was accused of all things again. But you know what, the YMB is largely for entertainment. There are indeed a few valuable posters from whom I learnt a great deal but the overwhelming majority of posters only want to hear what they want to hear. Trying to remain a voice of reason and calm, I combat pumpers and bashers alike despite my realization that YMB doesn't decide nor influence that price at which ARNA trades. Last weekend, I initiated a post discussing about options vs shares trading among serious posters and reading resposes to that post, these people bought over 2000 3C, 3.5C and 4C from Monday to Wednesday and they thanked me with sincerity. My Trade #3 position was built around the price range of 2.1-2.2. I plan to sell the position gradually at the incremental price of appreciation of .3-.5.
4) ARNA will not sit standstill. There are 8 trading days left before the AdComm halt on May 10. In these 8 days, I will not be surprised by a pps movement of 10-20%+ one way or the other on any given day. For this kind of volatility, trading can be much more profitable than simply buy-and-hold. I can assure you I will hold a position heading into the AdComm simply because I simply want a hand in this all important event but I have no idea what that position will look like today. All I am determined is that my position for the AdComm will be paid for by the house and I attempt to achieve that by trading! From where I sit, I see more than one good selling/buying opportunities between Monday and May 9.
5) You move in the way you see prudent and I act in the way I see prudent. I wish our brokerage accounts enjoying healthy gains by way of ARNA participation!
Jia and nepean_01 are professional and therefore it is not good for amateurs to give them advice like "Beware of risks of the market etc ...". It is very generous for them to share a lot of great ideas and experiences.
Therefore, let's show respect.
This thread is about winning or losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. For mom and pop type of players, like earning $100 on $2000 etc, another thread shall be opened....
I am no professional, just a miserable yet greedy amateur, attempting to win back what I lost (the majority of which was not mine, to begin with) and then some, hopefully. Yes, at times I play rahter big hands and that is how those rather big sums of money flow in and out of my brokerage account. Some of my friends ask, "why don't you stop at some point?" That is the battle I am constantly fighting against myself. If I don't start, how can I have the point to stop with?
"Man cannot discover ocean unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore" --- A French writer whose name skips my mind at the momemt.
antimachine: 你好像有把洋人名言谚语翻译成中文成语或谚语的爱好，请把上面的引言翻成成语或谚语。“舍不得孩子套不住狼”或“不入虎穴焉得虎子” --- 在下抛砖引玉了。
antimachine
CFC Class System Suck
Jia and nepean_01 are professional and therefore it is not good for amateurs to give them advice like "Beware of risks of the market etc ...". It is very generous for them to share a lot of great ideas and experiences.
Therefore, let's show respect.
This thread is about winning or losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. For mom and pop type of players, like earning $100 on $2000 etc, another thread shall be opened....
Lazycat,
I don't suspect a bit they are both professional, though not sure in which fields.
When you climbed on floor trying to learn how to stand up, I had been professional for years. You should not just play with paper in stock market, but dip some real coins in the market. After a while, you would learn it is totally different worlds. Try it.
As for Jia (I don't know why you guys call him that way), I has all the respect for him having shared his experience in a public forum.
Good luck to you.
antimachine
CFC Class System Suck
Are you accusing me of being flip flop on ARNA? Let me say a few things to you then.
1) Telling from your post in YMB, we are co-owners of ARNA. I wish you the very best with ARNA, potentially one of the biotech stories of 2012.
2) You are wrong accusing me of selling 50%. No, I did sell 1/2. Did you read my "I 2X my stake today" post? I sold the added 3C --- I would kick myself not to take that 45% profits off the table on an addition position after having those calls in my account for three days. Granted, I am a lousy day trader, not managing to sell them at .95.
3) When I posted that I sold out at 3.37, the board went crazy after me, accusing me of all things. When I posted about my selling the 5C at .72 for a mispirce, the board went crazy after me. I reloaded around 2.8-2.9 and when I posted that I sold out around 2-7-2.8 for a loss, I was accused of all things again. But you know what, the YMB is largely for entertainment. There are indeed a few valuable posters from whom I learnt a great deal but the overwhelming majority of posters only want to hear what they want to hear. Trying to remain a voice of reason and calm, I combat pumpers and bashers alike despite my realization that YMB doesn't decide nor influence that price at which ARNA trades. Last weekend, I initiated a post discussing about options vs shares trading among serious posters and reading resposes to that post, these people bought over 2000 3C, 3.5C and 4C from Monday to Wednesday and they thanked me with sincerity. My Trade #3 position was built around the price range of 2.1-2.2. I plan to sell the position gradually at the incremental price of appreciation of .3-.5.
4) ARNA will not sit standstill. There are 8 trading days left before the AdComm halt on May 10. In these 8 days, I will not be surprised by a pps movement of 10-20%+ one way or the other on any given day. For this kind of volatility, trading can be much more profitable than simply buy-and-hold. I can assure you I will hold a position heading into the AdComm simply because I simply want a hand in this all important event but I have no idea what that position will look like today. All I am determined is that my position for the AdComm will be paid for by the house and I attempt to achieve that by trading! From where I sit, I see more than one good selling/buying opportunities between Monday and May 9.
5) You move in the way you see prudent and I act in the way I see prudent. I wish our brokerage accounts enjoying healthy gains by way of ARNA participation!
Take easy for that. We all flip flop from time to time when we deem appropriate. I just want to say my personal opinon in the case of ARNA at this point of time: my timing would be to sell late next week (if I want to bank some profit) awaiting Adcom briefing document (the document will definitely contain some negativities; otherwise there would be no need for that meeting) an appropriate portion of my holding, and wait for Adcom outcome. The shorts would be most likely to spin out the negativity (so no one should not be surprise if a short attack happens). As for the outcome, I have the same feeling as yours: it will have the majority votes this time around, albeit not sure the margin of significance. Maybe hedgfunds will move their attention temporarily away from VVUS after the "manhood" pill approved last friday to ARNA (nobody knows but a possible senario).
FDA Comissioner's comment friday is also very interesting, that may be partly contributing to the rise of PPS in friday.
I have continually learnt something from your posts, although I usually don't log in this side often. Too many personally duties in life which seem more important than throwing tens of thousands hardearned dolllars to stock market each year.
Good luck.
Jia，
从盘面看，花街机构看来开始全面做多了，昨天聪明的机构应该全面covered空头。我全面1/2仓作多，并covered所有的空头，卖掉TZA，FAZ。我看好几个股票，我会给您发QQH。
谢谢您。
nepean_01:
我很多年来不向任何人推荐股票了。你号称做空大师，今天我破一例，给你推荐VVUS做空 （高点卖空），我自己将在近日内买6月的puts，最早是明天早上。我的看跌理由：
1）我原来想Qnexa PDUFA推迟，VVUS会狂跌。结果证明，我的判断错误，VVUS跌到20就停了，我以前所有的观察结果都半文不值。不仅如此，我对ARNA的判断同样错误，ARNA不仅没涨还狂跌。
2）我原来的计划是VVUS大跌后买5月的calls，赌Avanafil获批。结果没跌到我的舒服价位（15），我没动。
3）礼拜5Avanafil获批了，涨幅也差不多达到了我的预测值区间（20到26，我原来就给Avanafil获批定价5元上下，见前面的帖子）。我认为25-26应该是VVUS7月PDUFA决定前的高价位了，VVUS的大多家也应该开始卖消息了。
4) 我的VVUS目标价是6月期权过期前18/20 --- Avanafil批+6，卖消息-2/3，Qnexa PDUFA推迟-5/6。
当然，这些都是我自己的猜测而已，供你参考。
我还没决定做不做VVUS7月的PDUFA，到时再定，但我肯定不会做期权的！一个推迟，4月份的多权空权一律作废。除了FDA，没人敢肯定还会不会再推迟。
ARNA5月的AdComm我做定了，还有8天时间，我可能大幅度调整我的仓位。6月的PDUFA做不做，怎么做，都取决于AdComm的结果及当时的价位。ARNA的玩家很多也是DNDN的玩家（多空都是），我就认识不少（是股东大会上见过面、喝过酒的），连空家雇庸的枪手都是差不多同样的。但这是两个极端不同的药，政治环境也大相径庭。在它们之间做等同比较，我认为实在是拿西瓜比苹果。我的结论是经验主义者将吃大亏！
Take easy for that. We all flip flop from time to time when we deem appropriate. I just want to say my personal opinon in the case of ARNA at this point of time: my timing would be to sell late next week (if I want to bank some profit) awaiting Adcom briefing document (the document will definitely contain some negativities; otherwise there would be no need for that meeting) an appropriate portion of my holding, and wait for Adcom outcome. The shorts would be most likely to spin out the negativity (so no one should not be surprise if a short attack happens). As for the outcome, I have the same feeling as yours: it will have the majority votes this time around, albeit not sure the margin of significance. Maybe hedgfunds will move their attention temporarily away from VVUS after the "manhood" pill approved last friday to ARNA (nobody knows but a possible senario).
FDA Comissioner's comment friday is also very interesting, that may be partly contributing to the rise of PPS in friday.
I have continually learnt something from your posts, although I usually don't log in this side often. Too many personally duties in life which seem more important than throwing tens of thousands hardearned dolllars to stock market each year.
Good luck.
We are ARNA co-players and I hope we both make healthy gains!
To a large extent, your plan of actions is in line with mine. I expect trading in the next 8 days to be extremely volatile. Shorts don't throw in the towel that easily without a big and brutal fight --- hence the trading opportunities. I also expect a bear raid (stop loss order harvest) upon the BD release. I will establish my comfortable final AdComm position before the BD release simply because a bear raid may or may not take place and I don't want to count on that to establish my position. I will be fully prepared for it, though, for added trading or holding exposure.
I no longer hold shares or in-the-money calls into any binary event. After selling some 3C late last Friday, I still hold an oversized combination of 3C, 3.5C and 4C. I also naked shorted July 1.5P back in Feb. and I have no intension to close that --- cash is in place to be assigned the shares if that doesn't expire worthless. If and when I sell some more calls, I may buy some puts, not for insurance --- my objective is to reduce cost basis not the other way around --- but rather, for selling to those who will buy them to hedge prior to May 10.
Best of lucks!
lazycatcat
新手上路
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We are ARNA co-players and I hope we both make healthy gains!
To a large extent, your plan of actions is in line with mine. I expect trading in the next 8 days to be extremely volatile. Shorts don't throw in towel that easily without a big fight --- hence the trading opportunities. I also expect a bear raid (stop loss order harvest) upon the BD release. I will establish my comfortable AdComm position before the BD release simply because a bear raid may or may not take place and I don't want to count on that to establish my position. I will be fully prepared for it, though, for added trading or holding exposure.
I no longer hold shares or in-the-money calls into any binary event. After selling some 3C late last Friday, I still hold an oversized combination of 3C, 3.5C and 4C.
Best of lucks!
Nice to have another pal joining this thread !
What are the months of your calls ?
What do you expect ARNA to be with a positive recommendation, an eventual FDA approval ?
If rejected, I presume ARNA will be in between $0.50 to $1.00 (cash value at $0.50).
