精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

Nice to have another pal joining this thread !

What are the months of your calls ?

What do you expect ARNA to be with a positive recommendation, an eventual FDA approval ?

If rejected, I presume ARNA will be in between $0.50 to $1.00 (cash value at $0.50).

My current position is May 3C, 3.5C, 4C and -July 1.5P. I plan to trade a portion or even swap for higher-strike calls in the next 8 days and settle down with my final AdComm position before the close on May 7. I will be prepared for a potential bear raid upon BD release on May 8 but don't count on that occurance to establish my final AdComm position.

All I am playing for is a positive AdComm outcome. Get that in the bag and I truly believe the pps will take care of itself. The margin of votes will definitely impact the post-AdComm pps but I believe any price target is a futile attempt. After a binary event, only one of two things take over in the short-term --- either fear or greed. I will take whatever Mr. Market has to offer. Never underestimate the power of short squeezes and forced margin sales in the case of big spikes up in the former and down in the latter!

Negative AdComm? Everbody expects it to go below 1 and I second that. Cash value? Also possible! But it won't stay sub-1 for long! That is why I don't close out my -1.5P.

In addition, I don't live with "what if" scenarios! I occasionally heard people being drowned to death in their own bathtubs. Should we stop taking bath then? I constantly heard people die in airplane crushes. Should we stop flying then?

What I like from you: take a stand, disclose it, and discuss your thesis (bull or bear). Mind/paper game is the easies to play in town but I am not interested. Only upon one's chips are placed on the table will he/she breathe more heavily and the heart beat faster. 事不关己，谁都会高高挂起的!

 

[加京游子]

CAT：please delete any and all of your posts anywhere with personal comment on me!

1) I am me and there is only one me in this whole wide world. I play my way with my own money.

2) I do not like your personal comment on me at all. Relating me to anyone in any way, shape, or form, is absolutely inappriopriate and unacceptable.

Please delete any and all of this kind of posts anywhere immediately after you read this request. Thank you!

 

[加京游子]

nepean_01:

我很多年来不向任何人推荐股票了。你号称做空大师，今天我破一例，给你推荐VVUS做空 （高点卖空），我自己将在近日内买6月的puts，最早是明天早上。我的看跌理由：

1）我原来想Qnexa PDUFA推迟，VVUS会狂跌。结果证明，我的判断错误，VVUS跌到20就停了，我以前所有的观察结果都半文不值。不仅如此，我对ARNA的判断同样错误，ARNA不仅没涨还狂跌。

2）我原来的计划是VVUS大跌后买5月的calls，赌Avanafil获批。结果没跌到我的舒服价位（15），我没动。

3）礼拜5Avanafil获批了，涨幅也差不多达到了我的预测值区间（20到26，我原来就给Avanafil获批定价5元上下，见前面的帖子）。我认为25-26应该是VVUS7月PDUFA决定前的高价位了，VVUS的大多家也应该开始卖消息了。

4) 我的VVUS目标价是6月期权过期前18/20 --- Avanafil批+6，卖消息-2/3，Qnexa PDUFA推迟-5/6。

当然，这些都是我自己的猜测而已，供你参考。

我还没决定做不做VVUS7月的PDUFA，到时再定，但我肯定不会做期权的！一个推迟，4月份的多权空权一律作废。除了FDA，没人敢肯定还会不会再推迟。

ARNA5月的AdComm我做定了，还有8天时间，我可能大幅度调整我的仓位。6月的PDUFA做不做，怎么做，都取决于AdComm的结果及当时的价位。ARNA的玩家很多也是DNDN的玩家（多空都是），我就认识不少（是股东大会上见过面、喝过酒的），连空家雇庸的枪手都是差不多同样的。但这是两个极端不同的药，政治环境也大相径庭。在它们之间做等同比较，我认为实在是拿西瓜比苹果。我的结论是经验主义者将吃大亏！

nepean_01:

我收回前面给你推荐的VVUS做空，之所以重新发帖而不是删除前面的帖子是因为怕你可能已经看到。还好是周末，股市没开，不会造成什么损失。我今天又重新看了那个PR，拿捏不准的是Avanafil的marketing partner什么时候出来。我自己是不买空权了，你怎么做你自己把握，千万别受我的影响。

 

[lazycatcat]

My current position is May 3C, 3.5C, 4C and -July 1.5P. I plan to trade a portion or even swap for higher-strike calls in the next 8 days and settle down with my final AdComm position before the close on May 7. I will be prepared for a potential bear raid upon BD release on May 8 but don't count on that occurance to establish my final AdComm position.

All I am playing for is a positive AdComm outcome. Get that in the bag and I truly believe the pps will take care of itself. The margin of votes will definitely impact the post-AdComm pps but I believe any price target is a futile attempt. After a binary event, only one of two things take over in the short-term --- either fear or greed. I will take whatever Mr. Market has to offer. Never underestimate the power of short squeezes and forced margin sales in the case of big spikes up in the former and down in the latter!

Negative AdComm? Everbody expects it to go below 1 and I second that. Cash value? Also possible! But it won't stay sub-1 for long! That is why I don't close out my -1.5P.

In addition, I don't live with "what if" scenarios! I occasionally heard people being drowned to death in their own bathtubs. Should we stop taking bath then? I constantly heard people die in airplane crushes. Should we stop flying then?

What I like from you: take a stand, disclose it, and discuss your thesis (bull or bear). Mind/paper game is the easies to play in town but I am not interested. Only upon one's chips are placed on the table will he/she breathe more heavily and the heart beat faster. 事不关己，谁都会高高挂起的!

I am considering ARNA straddle play but may wait for a few days. No position as of now...

 

[lazycatcat]

1) I am me and there is only one me in this whole wide world. I play my way with my own money.

2) I do not like your personal comment on me at all. Relating me to anyone in any way, shape, or form, is absolutely inappriopriate and unacceptable.

Please delete any and all of this kind of posts anywhere immediately after you read this request. Thank you!

Sure, no problem. Only meant to introduce you to someone that might be new to the board. I am not sure if anyone reads your entire thread carefully as I did ...

 

[加京游子]

I am considering ARNA straddle play but may wait for a few days. No position as of now...

I have contemplated a strangle/straddle strategy since early Feb. for this AdComm and still no decision if I will employ it. What this strategy is best for is a polar outcome and its worst enemy is a non-decisive outcome and an associated sideway pps, resulting in both calls and puts getting killed. From where I sit, I will probably just go with out-of-money calls. My own guesswork is that it will continue to go up the next couple of days and then level off around 3.5-4, giving a MC around 700-800M. If that case indeed materializes, I will sell my calls and buy 3.5/4 puts to go net short for a couple of days and then swap the puts for calls for the final judgement. My mind for a highly positive AdComm outcome was decisively made up back in Feb. and nothing will sway me away from that. But the FDA is the FDA, I want to reduce my exposure to my comfort level (house money or otherwise) and yet maximize my effective control of shares.

ARNA is a battle ground stock. I don't expect shorts to throw in the towel without a bloody fight. I will not even be surprised if some hit pieces hit the wire PM tomorrow from AF, MH or other hired guns after their weekend regrouping. This kind of feelings very naturally comes up after one is in the game for a while. That is why I told you earlier I only pick selected battles to fight. Can't have too many battle fronts going on at the same time.

I am starting to take a look at AMRN as preparatory work. The competition's bad news is really good. One thing I don't like about it is the insider sale at 9.5 a few days ago.

My extreme confidence and conviction is one thing. The FDA is totally another. ARNA's risk is high and real (a temporary dip all the way down to 0.5-0.6 won't surprise me). You need a strong stomach for a hand in it. You evaluate your own perspective and act accordingly.

 

[加京游子]

Sure, no problem. Only meant to introduce you to someone that might be new to the board. I am not sure if anyone reads your entire thread carefully as I did ...

I play in the sandbox I am comfortable with. If anyone else is determined to join my sandbox, he/she will surely find the way. From now onwards, please don't make any personal comment. I welcome you and anyone else to discuss picks and DD, conditional on that there is a stake/interest.

 

[lazycatcat]

I have contemplated a strangle/straddle strategy since early Feb. for this AdComm and still no decision if I will employ it. What this strategy is best for is a polar outcome and its worst enemy is a non-decisive outcome and an associated sideway pps, resulting in both calls and puts getting killed. From where I sit, I will probably just go with out-of-money calls. My own guesswork is that it will continue to go up the next couple of days and then level off around 3.5-4, giving a MC around 700-800M. If that case indeed materializes, I will sell my calls and buy 3.5/4 puts to go net short for a couple of days and then swap the puts for calls for the final judgement. My mind for a highly positive AdComm outcome was decisively made up back in Feb. and nothing will sway me away from that. But the FDA is the FDA, I want to reduce my exposure to my comfort level (house money or otherwise) and yet maximize my effective control of shares.

ARNA is a battle ground stock. I don't expect shorts to throw in the towel without a bloody fight. I will not even be surprised if some hit pieces hit the wire PM tomorrow from AF, MH or other hired guns after their weekend regrouping. This kind of feelings very naturally comes up after one is in the game for a while. That is why I told you earlier I only pick selected battles to fight. Can't have too many battle fronts going on at the same time.

I am starting to take a look at AMRN as preparatory work. The competition's bad news is really good. One thing I don't like about it is the insider sale at 9.5 a few days ago.

My extreme confidence and conviction is one thing. The FDA is totally another. ARNA's risk is high and real (a temporary dip all the way down to 0.5-0.6 won't surprise me). You need a strong stomach for a hand in it. You evaluate your own perspective and act accordingly.

The straddle I am considering is May at-money put and July out of money call....If rejected, there will be a loss of around $0.50 per contract. If recommended by the committee, ARNA valuation at close to $1 B is probably reasonable...

 

[加京游子]

The ARNA sandbox is getting increasingly interesting!

After the weekend regrouping, one hit piece by SA was already out at 1.:23am. These suckers definitely move fast! They now have to turn to anonymous hitman rather than real-name authorship of hit pieces. Good sign to my eyes! Hope fools are scared off by these suckers and create good trading opportunities!

MM's have already started trading among themselves. Expecting a volatile day ahead!

Buy low and sell high in the dying days prior to the AdComm!

 

[加京游子]

Things are looking up?

On the market front, DOW reaches 4-year high; S&P500 completes the "golden cross". This has to have significant implications for technical traders!

On the company front, the widely anticipated FB IPO appears to go ahead in the middle of May, with the dog-and-pony show starting Monday. The IPO machinery seems to be turned out. Both Zuckerberg and Sandberg appeared on a number of high profile TV shows today.

Not by design but by chance, Mr. Market gave me the opportunity to complete my ARNA Trade #3 last Friday and yesterday. I will probably dip my toe in the ARNA pits again soon to position for Trade #4.

 

[加京游子]

Like ZNGA, everybody thought it would be $20 before FB IPO, but it was down to $8-9...:blowzy:

nepean_01:

Are you in ZNGA or not? I got in at 8.05 this morning for a FB IPO play. The lockup is over now and insiders sold a lot of shares a few days ago on the secondary offering. I really don't like that at all. Let's see how this pans out. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[加京游子]

nepean_01:

Are you in ZNGA or not? I got in at 8.05 this morning for a FB IPO play. The lockup is over now and insiders sold a lot of shares a few days ago on the secondary offering. I really don't like that at all. Let's see how this pans out. Thanks for the heads up.

nepean_01:

I sold ZNGA at the close today. Thank you very much for the tips on this. Two things make me very uncomfortable in holding this stock: the insider sale and the large float. I rolled the dice and got 10% in two days. I don't think I will look back at this stock as a trader or a holder. It is just not the type of stocks to my liking.

I am taking a serious look at PWRD for a trader and possibly long-term hold. The valuation appears to be ridiculously low. That naturally rings the bell about the scams we heard last year, most notoriously among them, sino-forest. Anyone with insight please come. Thanks in advance!

 

[加京游子]

GMCR: AH tanking hard!

This is the second time I am witnessing a non-biotech crashing like a biotech's trial going wrong or an NDA/BLA gets rejected by the FDA. Nightmare! The first time outside biotech was watching NFLX from 300 to 210, 200 to 150, 140 to 70 in very short time periods. Never shorted the stock or own puts.

Sincerely hope nobody gets hurt by this here!

I just went through the ER but have not been through the CC yet. On the surface, things don't appear that bad to me.

Devoting tonight to do the homework and may consider getting a few shares, depending on competing use of limited resources, but definitely not until next week or later. There will surely be massive margin-forced sales and that usually goes on for 2 1/2 days (my own rule of thumb after years of observation) and at times, that may go on for weeks before any stabilization. In addition, shorts may pile on --- I don't short stocks, period. Furthermore, downgrades will be fired off like surgar canes are handed out during Xmas. The reverse is the short squeeze. Two polar movements upon a big price action --- the market is never rational in the short run!

 

[lazycatcat]

This is the second time I am witnessing a non-biotech crashing like a biotech's trial going wrong or an NDA/BLA gets rejected by the FDA. Nightmare! The first time outside biotech was watching NFLX from 300 to 210, 200 to 150, 140 to 70 in very short time periods. Never shorted the stock or own puts.

Sincerely hope nobody gets hurt by this here!

I just went through the ER but have not been through the CC yet. On the surface, things don't appear that bad to me.

Devoting tonight to do the homework and may consider getting a few shares, depending on competing use of limited resources, but definitely not until next week or later. There will surely be massive margin-forced sales and that usually goes on for 2 1/2 days (my own rule of thumb after years of observation) and at times, that may go on for weeks before any stabilization. In addition, shorts may pile on --- I don't short stocks, period. Furthermore, downgrades will be fired off like surgar canes are handed out during Xmas. The reverse is the short squeeze. Two polar movements upon a big price action --- the market is never rational in the short run!

Just read the news of GMCR from CNBC. It tanked by 50% after hour.

I studied this company along with HANS and DECK about two years ago. At that time, GMCR was selling for P/E of over 25 and I really couldn't figure out.

For one thing, GMCR's margin is actually quite low and its main business model is retail of coffee. The Keurig was a revolutionary idea but it was subject to copy-cat. In other words, GMCR's business model is essentially selling commodity with a commodity model.

I could be wrong but I couldn't establish a brand loyalty to GMCR...

However, a 50% tank is probably over done but need to read the financials again. Maybe we can compare roads in the days to come...

 

[lazycatcat]

Another company linked to GMCR is JVA.

Nepean_01 has been on both last year but not sure what he is doing. He seems to be less consistent, on and off unpredictably from this board.