即使是主流媒体现在也报道加拿大平均房价已经下降$179,047或者大约20%。有的地方比如多伦多等下降更多, 但下降趋势还远未结束!十套房姐/哥们今天已经失去大约账面$1,790,000, 但是房贷还得还。

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Canadian households have lost billions in real estate cool-down​

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Home prices have only fallen to where they were 18 months ago, but there are knock-on effects to the economy​


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Peter Armstrong · CBC News · Posted: Sep 16, 2022 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 4 hours ago

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Real estate for-sale signs in Oakville, Ont. on Saturday, Dec.1, 2018. (Richard Buchan/The Canadian Press)


Canada's real estate market has suddenly and dramatically cooled. Sales have dropped 24 per cent since this time last year. The average price of a home in this country has fallen by $179,047 since the peak in February.

And yet, has much actually changed?

"I consider it like letting the air out of a balloon," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. "You don't want it necessarily to pop and burst, but in the near term prices needed to come down to something that was a little bit more sustainable."

For anyone trying to get into the market, the prospect of a cool down was always presented as an opportunity. But even with a 20 per cent drop in prices, Canada's average home price has fallen back to where it was in early 2021.


residential-home-prices-continue-to-fall.jpg

What has changed, however, is how house-poor the typical Canadian family is feeling lately. Statistics Canada says the drop in home prices has helped drive the largest decline of household wealth this country has ever seen.

Billions lost in household net worth​

It may be easy to look at the decline in home prices and, if you're not an owner trying to sell, say, "That doesn't affect me."

But the reality is: Much of Canadian household wealth is tied up in home prices, the sector itself remains one of the biggest contributors to Canadian GDP, and it just took a hit.

Statscan says the net worth of Canadian households — defined as the value of all assets minus all liabilities — fell by a staggering $990.1 billion in April, May and June.

"This decline was compounded by a $389.8-billion drop in the value of non-financial assets, as the streak of gains in real estate that began in late 2018 was halted by a housing market grappling with rapidly rising interest rates," wrote the data agency in a release last week.

The rest of the drop in household wealth comes as stock markets tanked in the second quarter. (Statscan's figures only covered the period ending in June. Stock markets have recovered somewhat since then, but the once red-hot housing market losses have accelerated through July and August.)


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A pedestrian passes a "Help Wanted" sign in the door of a hardware store in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., July 8, 2022. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (Brian Snyder/Reuters)
As home values fall, there's a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, "like spending on building materials, spending on furniture, all that kind of stuff," said BMO's senior economist Robert Kavcic.

"We have more depressed housing activity that's going to drag on real economic growth and is going to drag on job growth."

As home values skyrocketed over the past decades, Canadian homeowners felt richer. They borrowed more and spent more, using their ever-rising home values as a sort of ATM.

As values fall off and interest rates rise, homeowners are less likely to borrow and spend.

Those interest rates will also slow the economy in another way, says Kavcic.

"If your mortgage payment is gone up $500 a month, or $1000 a month, that is immediately biting into discretionary spending that you could otherwise be spending elsewhere in the economy," he told CBC News.

Inflation is not over​

Meanwhile, inflation is eating into our purchasing power and eroding wage growth.

Combined, consumers are looking for ways to scale back spending, and small decisions make big differences when scaled out over a population.

"If you're not going out for lunch, well, that's one fewer sale at the local lunch place and maybe at some point, a couple fewer jobs," said Kavcic.

He expects there are difficult days ahead.


Gas pump.

Falling gasoline prices are driving down headline inflation. But other the price of other goods and services continues to rise. (Robert Short/CBC )
Next week, Canada's latest inflation numbers are set to be released. They're forecast to show a deceleration in the main, headline number that in June reached a 39-year high of 8.1 per cent.

But economists are concerned that core inflation, which strips out volatile components like gasoline and food, is still rising. Cieszynski says the most recent inflation numbers from the U.S. show how tough it is to rein in rising prices.

"[Last week's U.S.] numbers showed that inflation is sticky, it's remaining high and it may or may not have peaked," he said.

"Even if it does start to come down, it may come down much slower than [Wall Street] had anticipated."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/interest-mortgage-column-don-pittis-1.6173498
If inflation does persist even as higher interest rates bite into the economy, he says, central banks including the Bank of Canada would have to increase rates more than expected and remain high for longer than anticipated.

That would mean more turmoil for both stock markets and real estate markets. Which in turn would mean an even larger erosion of household wealth than we've already seen.
 

GlobeCitizen

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The lucky ones? Yes. Even that, the more ones hold, the more the loss!
The un-that-lucky ones, no. Some smart cookies have sold some.
Most multiple-house-holders have used leverage. Even most single house holders have used leverage, which is called mortgage! To the luckiest ones, congratulations! for the unlucky ones, my sympathy!
 
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welcomelm

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十房姐年薪20万,卖了房,税交到天上去了,有些人整天就知道纸上谈兵。
 

Vivien2001

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The lucky ones? Yes. Even that, the more ones hold, the more the loss!
The un-that-lucky ones, no. Some smart cookies have sold some.
Most multiple-house-holders have used leverage. Even most single house holders have used leverage, which is called mortgage! To the luckiest ones, congratulations! for the unlucky ones, my sympathy!
这里有很多房的都是很早买的,都基本没房贷。
你还是同情下自己怎么早没多买几套,现在现金在手里贬值吧。
 

GlobeCitizen

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这里有很多房的都是很早买的,都基本没房贷。
你还是同情下自己怎么早没多买几套,现在现金在手里贬值吧。
你高兴就好。
BTW, I bought my first house when I was a PhD student with fellowships in early 1990s.
 

贵圈

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通胀所有东西的通胀,不是房子的通胀,

投资房就是为了追通胀。追过头了,回吐。但是终归是要保值的。这是理性调整。

但是看,就业加拿大6/7/8三个月都是负数了吧? 如果加拿大美国继续加息,那就是崩盘。到时候一地鸡毛是有可能的。非理性恐慌发生,

Canada lost 40,000 jobs in August, 3rd monthly decline in a row​


看看美国加拿大金融决策,这回能涨到哪里吧?
 

贵圈

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通胀下,货币如果丧失公信力,则趁早放弃“现金为王”

加拿大房产是刚需,因为有移民预期。
 

GlobeCitizen

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十房姐年薪20万,卖了房,税交到天上去了,有些人整天就知道纸上谈兵。
To buy multiple houses is to count $ in bed, and take all the $ made/lost into one's grave?
 

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To buy multiple houses is to count $ in bed, and take all the $ made/lost into one's grave?

你先去自己实际操作一下再说吧,不要在这里空谈。
 
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