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精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
加京游子,
真得很感谢你们, 明天，我会买掉ARAN。我每天都来这拜读，让我学到很多。
请问JAZZ的情况如何，从盘口看，好像有些异动。谢谢了。
不客气！如果BLOSSOM结果好，所有多家都可以赚一笔。明早就见分晓了，conference call在8am，依经验看，PR可能6am或7am出来。CEO不够狠，没有在今天的PR出来前halt交易, 让空家在PM covered了不少。具体怎么做看个人自己的。你要是在这里得到了启发而赚了钱，我祝贺你，为你高兴！
我对JAZZ没花很多心思，不便发表看法。我的BAC, DNDN, DVAX, ELN和SVA都没满仓，还要储存钱进MGM和LVS，目前不想把网撒得太宽。
BLOSSOM hits a home run, PR out at 12:00am
Arena Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive, Highly Significant BLOSSOM Trial Results for Weight Management; NDA Submission on Track for December
- Lorcaserin Meets all Primary Endpoints and FDA Benchmark - - 63% of Lorcaserin Patients Who Complied with the Protocol Lost at Least 5% of Their Weight - - Lorcaserin Patients in the Top Quartile Achieved Average Weight Loss of 16% or 35 Pounds - - Combined Phase 3 BLOOM and BLOSSOM Data Set Confirms Lorcaserin's Excellent Safety and Tolerability Profile and Rules Out Heart Valve Effect - - Conference Call and Webcast Presentation Scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET on September 18, 2009 -
Arena Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive, Highly Significant BLOSSOM Trial Results for Weight Management; NDA Submission on Track for December - Yahoo! Finance
Arena Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive, Highly Significant BLOSSOM Trial Results for Weight Management; NDA Submission on Track for December
- Lorcaserin Meets all Primary Endpoints and FDA Benchmark - - 63% of Lorcaserin Patients Who Complied with the Protocol Lost at Least 5% of Their Weight - - Lorcaserin Patients in the Top Quartile Achieved Average Weight Loss of 16% or 35 Pounds - - Combined Phase 3 BLOOM and BLOSSOM Data Set Confirms Lorcaserin's Excellent Safety and Tolerability Profile and Rules Out Heart Valve Effect - - Conference Call and Webcast Presentation Scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET on September 18, 2009 -
Arena Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive, Highly Significant BLOSSOM Trial Results for Weight Management; NDA Submission on Track for December - Yahoo! Finance
lazycatcat
新手上路
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- 2009-08-26
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ARNA
It is a tough day for ARNA longs. The volume is 125 M shares and exceed floating share by 25 M. The company definitely has new owners now.
At a broad stroke, the results are not really that bad, given the drug is as safe as placebo and 1st quartile has an average of 16% weight loss over placebo. The pill is most likely being used by people in those quartile, assuming over-weight people are concentrated here. Secondly, who wants to be killed by a weight loss pill ?
ARNA is being played like fiddle and the management is definitely at fault.
Jia, you are definitely great in being in the right place. This can't be denied by today's ARNA setback. However, I think there are a few obvious places that could be refined and I can list them if you care to read.
ARNA can still be played in the future....Exact timing is hard to say from now though. The Oct statistics to be published could be an interesting point ...
It is a tough day for ARNA longs. The volume is 125 M shares and exceed floating share by 25 M. The company definitely has new owners now.
At a broad stroke, the results are not really that bad, given the drug is as safe as placebo and 1st quartile has an average of 16% weight loss over placebo. The pill is most likely being used by people in those quartile, assuming over-weight people are concentrated here. Secondly, who wants to be killed by a weight loss pill ?
ARNA is being played like fiddle and the management is definitely at fault.
Jia, you are definitely great in being in the right place. This can't be denied by today's ARNA setback. However, I think there are a few obvious places that could be refined and I can list them if you care to read.
ARNA can still be played in the future....Exact timing is hard to say from now though. The Oct statistics to be published could be an interesting point ...
ARNA gave me a big loss rather than some nice Xmas gifts
The data are solid but pale in relatively efficacy among the three competing drugs. Common share holders are fine as the stock clossed green. My calls tanked and I suffered heavy losses. Sold 3/5 to get 1/3 capital back, keeping 2/5 to see if it can gain some life within the next month after yesterday's mess, fully prepared to write it off.
This is a small setback along the path of a long march. As a result, I won't be able to add to stocks I wand to add but it won't affect my overall plans going forward. Despite this bump, the past two weeks have been great. My biggest position, DNDN, enjoyed a fabulous runup. BAC is also showing some life. DVAX is preparing for another launch. Newly acquired ELN and SVA declined somewhat, providing opportunities to add.
MGM and LVS are at a povital point, plan to get in on a breakdown or a breakout.
Best to those who deserve!
The data are solid but pale in relatively efficacy among the three competing drugs. Common share holders are fine as the stock clossed green. My calls tanked and I suffered heavy losses. Sold 3/5 to get 1/3 capital back, keeping 2/5 to see if it can gain some life within the next month after yesterday's mess, fully prepared to write it off.
This is a small setback along the path of a long march. As a result, I won't be able to add to stocks I wand to add but it won't affect my overall plans going forward. Despite this bump, the past two weeks have been great. My biggest position, DNDN, enjoyed a fabulous runup. BAC is also showing some life. DVAX is preparing for another launch. Newly acquired ELN and SVA declined somewhat, providing opportunities to add.
MGM and LVS are at a povital point, plan to get in on a breakdown or a breakout.
Best to those who deserve!
It is a tough day for ARNA longs. The volume is 125 M shares and exceed floating share by 25 M. The company definitely has new owners now.
At a broad stroke, the results are not really that bad, given the drug is as safe as placebo and 1st quartile has an average of 16% weight loss over placebo. The pill is most likely being used by people in those quartile, assuming over-weight people are concentrated here. Secondly, who wants to be killed by a weight loss pill ?
ARNA is being played like fiddle and the management is definitely at fault.
Jia, you are definitely great in being in the right place. This can't be denied by today's ARNA setback. However, I think there are a few obvious places that could be refined and I can list them if you care to read.
ARNA can still be played in the future....Exact timing is hard to say from now though. The Oct statistics to be published could be an interesting point ...
Lazycatcat: I listend to the conference call and went through the top line data very carefully. My confidence in Lorcaserin and hence ARNA is not shaken. The market potential is huge and IMO, given the safety profile, Lorcaserin is the only FDA approvable among the 3 competitors. I have stated repeatedy that timing the market is not only very hard but also stupid except in announced special events and I only play short-term calls on special events. Two triggers that will move ARNA are a marketing partnership announcement and an FDA decision. While there is no way to know when the former is going to happen, the FDA decision won't happen until the tail-end of 2010 should the company file the NDA in December. I will get back to ARNA common shares after the NDA submission in order not to miss the expected marketing partnership announcement.
DNDN gained over 25% in a week, and my ORGAH nearly 60% and ORGAJ close to 90%. In 7 trading sessions, my free MGMAC chips enjoyed a gain of 500% and I booked the sweet profits (and this is done on 500 calls). Although I don't pay much attention to daily balance in my brokerage account and despite the setback in ARNA yesterday, I have no complaints whatsoever for the last two weeks. I don't expect that kind of stellar performance to repeat either. Can't win it all, my friend. 这家损失那家补，涨多于跌，赚大于赔，我就心满意足了.
All I ask for is ORGAH, VBAAF and VBZAB closing the year in the money.
lazycatcat
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ARNA - Case Study
Good poems, Jia !
You spotted the weight loss drug marvelously a few months ago and everything was set up perfectly for speculation. However, there are some issues in execution in my opinion and I detail them below so that we could exchange ideas and better skills to lick the market.
ARNA and the two others are not difficult to analyze because there is really no information that can provide insight. This is great for speculation because no one has significant advantage (unlike in the case of MGM, BAC and ELN). However, there are obvious signs on ARNA that should be included in the decision making process.
1. Warrants Issuance
Any company that issues convertibles or warrants to raise fund indicates it is WEAK. ARNA allows 28M shares warrants at market price plus additional 5.6 M shares at market at the option of the investor. Adding together, it is equivalent to 34% of total 100 M shares outstanding !
This deal definitely puts a cap on ARNA's potential for appreciation in the short-run.
2. Valuation
After VVUS issued results, VVUS was valued at $800 M. For ARNA to rise above $10, ARNA has to be valued at close to $1.2 B. Given the BLOOM results, it is very difficult. For the price to rise to $12.50, total market cap has to be $1.5 B, almost double of that of VVUS.
At this point, sell $10 or $12.50 call could fetch about $0.50 and $0.30 per share, respectively.
In summary, the most difficult part of this activity is to find out ARNA, VVUS and EOS. The rest is relatively easy but one does need to have an estimate of overall valuation and the situation.
MGM is not hard to analyze except some effort is needed (like 1 day's work ...)
Good poems, Jia !
You spotted the weight loss drug marvelously a few months ago and everything was set up perfectly for speculation. However, there are some issues in execution in my opinion and I detail them below so that we could exchange ideas and better skills to lick the market.
ARNA and the two others are not difficult to analyze because there is really no information that can provide insight. This is great for speculation because no one has significant advantage (unlike in the case of MGM, BAC and ELN). However, there are obvious signs on ARNA that should be included in the decision making process.
1. Warrants Issuance
Any company that issues convertibles or warrants to raise fund indicates it is WEAK. ARNA allows 28M shares warrants at market price plus additional 5.6 M shares at market at the option of the investor. Adding together, it is equivalent to 34% of total 100 M shares outstanding !
This deal definitely puts a cap on ARNA's potential for appreciation in the short-run.
2. Valuation
After VVUS issued results, VVUS was valued at $800 M. For ARNA to rise above $10, ARNA has to be valued at close to $1.2 B. Given the BLOOM results, it is very difficult. For the price to rise to $12.50, total market cap has to be $1.5 B, almost double of that of VVUS.
At this point, sell $10 or $12.50 call could fetch about $0.50 and $0.30 per share, respectively.
In summary, the most difficult part of this activity is to find out ARNA, VVUS and EOS. The rest is relatively easy but one does need to have an estimate of overall valuation and the situation.
MGM is not hard to analyze except some effort is needed (like 1 day's work ...)
Good poems, Jia !
You spotted the weight loss drug marvelously a few months ago and everything was set up perfectly for speculation. However, there are some issues in execution in my opinion and I detail them below so that we could exchange ideas and better skills to lick the market.
ARNA and the two others are not difficult to analyze because there is really no information that can provide insight. This is great for speculation because no one has significant advantage (unlike in the case of MGM, BAC and ELN). However, there are obvious signs on ARNA that should be included in the decision making process.
1. Warrants Issuance
Any company that issues convertibles or warrants to raise fund indicates it is WEAK. ARNA allows 28M shares warrants at market price plus additional 5.6 M shares at market at the option of the investor. Adding together, it is equivalent to 34% of total 100 M shares outstanding !
This deal definitely puts a cap on ARNA's potential for appreciation in the short-run.
2. Valuation
After VVUS issued results, VVUS was valued at $800 M. For ARNA to rise above $10, ARNA has to be valued at close to $1.2 B. Given the BLOOM results, it is very difficult. For the price to rise to $12.50, total market cap has to be $1.5 B, almost double of that of VVUS.
At this point, sell $10 or $12.50 call could fetch about $0.50 and $0.30 per share, respectively.
In summary, the most difficult part of this activity is to find out ARNA, VVUS and EOS. The rest is relatively easy but one does need to have an estimate of overall valuation and the situation.
MGM is not hard to analyze except some effort is needed (like 1 day's work ...)
Lazycatcat: I very much appreciate your valuation efforts. But there is a key point you can't place in your efforts for the short run: fear and greed in the market. As for MGM, there are two company-specific aspects you can't valuate: CityCentre's grand opening and the possibility of IPO Macau assets in HK. Regarding pre-earnings developmental stage biotech, you can't valuate them at all --- trial results/FDA approval/market potentials trump all others.
Goodbye and all the very best of lucks to those who deserve
The weather has been simply gorgeous and I hope everyone has fully enjoyed a fabulous weekend!
Friends are calling me name after learning that I have given away my stock picks along with my DD in a public forum like this. They further strongly counsel me to stop posting immediately. After some reflections and soul searching, I concur. I am hereby saying goodbye and wishing all those who deserve all the very best of lucks in the market and in life!
版主：原想贴到我的目标实现或者血本无归为止，对不起，不再贴了！
Those who wish to share DD may contact me by emailing to wanderer1963@live.ca with a brief introduction。 I will reply at my discretion---我不想浪费时间精力对牛弹琴。
The weather has been simply gorgeous and I hope everyone has fully enjoyed a fabulous weekend!
Friends are calling me name after learning that I have given away my stock picks along with my DD in a public forum like this. They further strongly counsel me to stop posting immediately. After some reflections and soul searching, I concur. I am hereby saying goodbye and wishing all those who deserve all the very best of lucks in the market and in life!
版主：原想贴到我的目标实现或者血本无归为止，对不起，不再贴了！
Those who wish to share DD may contact me by emailing to wanderer1963@live.ca with a brief introduction。 I will reply at my discretion---我不想浪费时间精力对牛弹琴。
希望 -- 天黑路茫茫心中的彷徨
那真得太可惜了!! 我每天都来看看有没有新的贴。我原来对生化医药股一窍不通，
但看了你们的帖子，我真得学了不少。这个周末，我又把您的帖子重看了一遍，我
有相似的经历，去年蒙蒙懂懂，还没来得及搞明白就亏了十来万，我至今还不敢告
诉家人。我一度很绝望。还好今年赚了不少回来。您的经历真得又给我不少希望。
如果不是你的帖子，我决不可能敢在4块大量买进ARNA，然后我在高位卖掉。我除了
感谢还是感谢。
对我来说，您的帖子就是我的希望!!! 我们每个交易都有我们自己负责，您完全不
用担心，每个人都有自己对市场的理解和操作的方法。
我真得希望每天能够继续看到您和懒猫的对话。。。。。。
以我最喜欢的大长今的"希望"与您共勉!!!
从心里说一声谢谢了。
希望 -- 大长今
看天空飘的云还有梦
看生命回家路路程漫漫
看阴天的岁月越走越远
远方的回忆的你的微笑
天黑路茫茫心中的彷徨
没犹豫的方向
希望的翅膀一天终张开
飞翔天上
看天空飞的鸟还有梦
看清风像带路吹散大雾
看冬天悲的雪越来越远
昨天的曾经的我的微笑
分开的感伤想归的彷徨
有天逃出想像
心中一个梦想雨后彩虹
画在天空
Link: [media]http://mp3.sogou.com/music.so?query=%B4%F3%B3%A4%BD%F1%CF%A3%CD%FB&p=01040200&w=02999999&_asf=www.sohu.com&_ast=1253499750&md=&name=&rturl=&dtype=&ds=&provider=&key=[/media]
那真得太可惜了!! 我每天都来看看有没有新的贴。我原来对生化医药股一窍不通，
但看了你们的帖子，我真得学了不少。这个周末，我又把您的帖子重看了一遍，我
有相似的经历，去年蒙蒙懂懂，还没来得及搞明白就亏了十来万，我至今还不敢告
诉家人。我一度很绝望。还好今年赚了不少回来。您的经历真得又给我不少希望。
如果不是你的帖子，我决不可能敢在4块大量买进ARNA，然后我在高位卖掉。我除了
感谢还是感谢。
对我来说，您的帖子就是我的希望!!! 我们每个交易都有我们自己负责，您完全不
用担心，每个人都有自己对市场的理解和操作的方法。
我真得希望每天能够继续看到您和懒猫的对话。。。。。。
以我最喜欢的大长今的"希望"与您共勉!!!
从心里说一声谢谢了。
希望 -- 大长今
看天空飘的云还有梦
看生命回家路路程漫漫
看阴天的岁月越走越远
远方的回忆的你的微笑
天黑路茫茫心中的彷徨
没犹豫的方向
希望的翅膀一天终张开
飞翔天上
看天空飞的鸟还有梦
看清风像带路吹散大雾
看冬天悲的雪越来越远
昨天的曾经的我的微笑
分开的感伤想归的彷徨
有天逃出想像
心中一个梦想雨后彩虹
画在天空
Link: [media]http://mp3.sogou.com/music.so?query=%B4%F3%B3%A4%BD%F1%CF%A3%CD%FB&p=01040200&w=02999999&_asf=www.sohu.com&_ast=1253499750&md=&name=&rturl=&dtype=&ds=&provider=&key=[/media]
lazycatcat
新手上路
- 注册
- 2009-08-26
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Jia & Nepean_01
We can probably form an email list. Although my approach is completely different from yours, we may still be able to team up for elephant hunting someday.
I have sent an email to Jia at his email address. What is your email address, Nepean ? Mine is lazybigcat@yahoo.com.
We can probably form an email list. Although my approach is completely different from yours, we may still be able to team up for elephant hunting someday.
I have sent an email to Jia at his email address. What is your email address, Nepean ? Mine is lazybigcat@yahoo.com.
I am very sorry
Many kind readers request that I continue to post my transations and DD. I am sorry, folks, I don't want to do that any longer. If you want to discuss, I have said that let's organize an email exchange. Lazycatcat: would you like to take the lead for that?
I wish all those who deserve all the very best!
Many kind readers request that I continue to post my transations and DD. I am sorry, folks, I don't want to do that any longer. If you want to discuss, I have said that let's organize an email exchange. Lazycatcat: would you like to take the lead for that?
I wish all those who deserve all the very best!
