精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[lazycatcat]

Jia, I sent you an email from yahoo. Can you please confirm by reply or post here if you get it ? By the way, I think we can still open another stream for DD discussions only without disclosing positions. I guess this won't trespass anything but I could be wrong ...Please let me know if this could exist in parallel to email discussions.

Sure, I can create an email list if people interested send me their emails to lazybigcat_1999@yahoo.com

At this stage, I guess most of us will remain under nick names. Once we have more experiences with each other, I guess we could be closer, especially if we find an elephant to hunt ...

 

[lazycatcat]

Also, I don't find many people doing DD here. Instead of spending time on TA, which are tea leaves to me, I think better time could be spent on DD. It is not hard for some companies and Jia or myself can always provide high level information on how to do DD ...

 

[加京游子]

Jia, I sent you an email from yahoo. Can you please confirm by reply or post here if you get it ? By the way, I think we can still open another stream for DD discussions only without disclosing positions. I guess this won't trespass anything but I could be wrong ...Please let me know if this could exist in parallel to email discuss mail list if people interested send me their emails to lazybigcat_1999@yahoo.com

At this stage, I guess most of us will remain under nick names. Once we have more experiences with each other, I guess we could be closer, especially if we find an elephant to hunt ...

My computer broke down and a friend just got it fixed a while ago. I have replied your email.

I am not interested in trading tips, only DD. Hence, the group you are going to organize has to be highly selective.

 

[Green158]

Also, I don't find many people doing DD here. Instead of spending time on TA, which are tea leaves to me, I think better time could be spent on DD. It is not hard for some companies and Jia or myself can always provide high level information on how to do DD ...

好像这和个人的交易策略有关吧，和做不做FA和DD没有多大关系吧。 能在股票这个市场生存下来，应该有一套自己的并得到市场验证的能带来PORFIT的DD才行吧。 名牌大学的金融系教授炒股有多少赚钱的。。。

 

[lazycatcat]

Jia, it is hard to know who are doing DD. So far on your steam, I might be the only one, not including you of course, digging into 10K or 10Q... Anyway we will see ... My main interest is in DD and ideas....

 

[加京游子]

谢谢关心!

很多未名的朋友发来QQH和email，衷心感谢你们的关心！很抱歉，我不一一回了。我的ARNA options亏了血本无归，也就20K嘛，DNDN options也跌了很多，但MGMAC一手赚的就可以让我亏个8手10手的，更何况DNDN的options按礼拜五的收盘价还高出我的买价不少，别为我当心。真的很感激大家的厚爱和关心，我知道自己在做什么。请你们放心并祝你们发大财！

For those who care and deserve to know, MGM's one day reversal has completed its course, IMO, and I have bought some MGM and MGMAC back last Thursday, I will add significantly when confirmation is in the bag! Since March 6 this year, I have been waiting to test the applicability of this one day reversal theory (by Jesse Livermore, considered to be the best American stock operator ever lived). The MGM move lately is a classic case of one day reversal, which I posted when I sold out. Not many stocks can perform such a classic example. I am lucky and gutsy to test it with a large amount of money at stake. A transaction takes a buy and a sell to complete. I have completed the transaction with a mongster profit.

p.s. SAQ warehouse wine on the tap is 25% off as it is winding down the operation. For those who like/love French wine, it is definitely worth of a visit. The only white wine left is Muscadet, which happens to be one of my favourites and I loaded my trunk today。

 

[lazycatcat]

Jia

You can't seem to resist the temptation to post here. Maybe we can discuss DD only here instead of positions. Do your friends think that would work ?

 

[加京游子]

You can't seem to resist the temptation to post here. Maybe we can discuss DD only here instead of positions. Do your friends think that would work ?

I posted so I don't have to respond to those who wish me well individually. No more picks and DD in any public forum, Dude!

 

[加京游子]

This is for Lazycatcat

Your email address doesn't seem to work. Both of my messages were returned. I also sent you a QQH, please check.

After DNDN's Analyst Day, I have accordingly worked out a very rough valuation. I don't know if you care to know about it. Should you be interested, we can talk it and maybe you can refine it. If that is the case, I would prefer that you listen to the recorded webcast (don't know if you have done that already) and come to the table with your ideas. It is way better to compare notes and discuss.

Best wishes!

 

[lazycatcat]

Jia

I sent you an email from my home account. I can take a look at DNDN if you care to send me your analysis ... What is QHH ?

 

[加京游子]

I sent you an email from my home account. I can take a look at DNDN if you care to send me your analysis ... What is QHH ?

Lazycatcat: I am a man of passion, vision, mission and conviction! For DNDN, I want you to do your own DD and we compare notes. You can start from the results of 9901 and 9902a, which resulted in the FDA AC meeting on March 30, 2007 with the voting of 17-0 and 13-4 for Provenge. The FDA CRL on May 8, 2007 wiped out my brokerage account and destroyed my dreamed lifestyle. I am mounting a comeback effort, tough, very tough. Then you can continue with the 9902b (Impact) results which were presented at the UAU on April 28, 2009 and listen to the recorded webcast on Sept. 24, 2009.

My DD on DNDN goes way beyond financials and the traditional valuation model. This is your chance of catching up with an emerging biotech powerhouse. I need a partner to share DD and discuss. I don't want my own ways of seeing things to be clouded with past experience and biase. You are new to this and may have different perspectives. If you don't mind the hard work, I would be very glad to share and discuss. But on DNDN, I want you to come up with your own brand new DD and we compare notes.

I have, upon my third entry into Wall Street, firmly decided that no matter how many mistakes I am going to make going forward, I want to be the sole owner of each and every of them. My broker account was fully responsible for my previous two disasters despite a number of other factors influencing my decisions and strategies. From this point on, I am the only holder of my brokerage account and every decision I make is solely my own.

Contact me when you are ready to share DD. I won't disclose anything on a public forum any longer.

 

[加京游子]

LVS: the grand opening of Marina Bay Sands (Singapore) expected to be mid-2010

Below are some pictures.

Marina Bay Sands (194m, 57 x3 floors with 1 ha skypark, due 2010) #2 - Page 80 - SkyscraperCity

 

[加京游子]

Losing the shirt or missing the boat!!!!!

That would have been the end results if one had listened to the professionals and the self-proclaimed professionals! They shouted Buy Buy Buy when the DOW was around 14K and Sell Sell Sell around 7K! And they are not even men enough to admit they are dead wrong!

From a long perspective, March 2009 presented a "generational" entry into the market; June 2009 another. Comparable superb entry points occurred only in 1932, 1938 and 1975. Mr. Market is never wrong, only traders are. The long-term rationality of Mr. Market needs to be understood with its inherent short-term irrationality.

No men can individually or collectively buy the bottom and sell the top on a consistent basis. Timing the market is not only extremely hard but also very stupid.

One has to be in it to win it or lose it. There is one sure destination fence-sitters will get to and that is NOWHERE!

In case of directionless, have partial commitments so as not to miss an unexpected breakout and reserve sufficient dry powder for an unexpected breakdown. Mr. Market is, after all, full of not only the unexpected but also the unexpectable. Any major breakdown in history has always been the greatest buying opportunity. Notable recent memories include October 1987; market reopen post 911; March 2009.

Buy when there is fear in the air and panic in the street. By the same token, sell when there is greed in the air and uphoria en masse.

 

[加京游子]

[FONT=仿宋体]从今天起，我将继续建此楼的本意[/FONT]
[FONT=仿宋体]
不再贴交易情况和研究结果，也就是说，不从第二部写起，而从[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]楔子开笔，继而写第一部和第三部。[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]交易情况和研究结果乃第二部的内容，另做笔记。
[/FONT]

 

[加京游子]

[FONT=仿宋体]楔子：一个以股票为副业者是这样炼成的[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]

1985年6月29日晚，社科院于光远、许涤新和北师大陶大镛的几个研究生哥们为我在北京全聚德送行。菜上三道、酒过五盏，互赠诗作以做纪念。“洒泪惜别明西飞，只身渡洋赴枫乡。学成归来三五年，秉烛煮酒数风流”是我给他们留下的打油诗。1989年的6.4天安门事件，令我申请了加拿大移民进而入了加拿大国籍，彻底破灭了我出国前学成回国报效国人、与好友们[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]煮酒数风流、光耀家门的誓言和梦[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]想。当然，也可以说那些是我年少不更事的狂妄和不知天高地厚，不过，年青人还是应该有朝气和上进心的。要是人人都成了生活的哲学家，个个老气横秋的，麻烦可就不小了。年轻人就像早晨八九点钟的太阳一样，这个世界归根结底是年轻人的，希望在年轻人身上！人生苦短却充满着不依个人的主观意志为转移的异数，每个异数都将令人作出相应的选择，而每个选择又将不可避免地影响甚至改变往后的路程。在我不长不短的46年里，从上大学自己拿主意算起（没上北大而上厦大因而没学中文而学经济学是家里和中学老师的主意），[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]也有30来年了，[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]遇到的异数又何止一次两次，为此也作出[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]过不止一次两次的[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]抉择。路不能回头走，日子不能回头过，马后炮将军总是无棋的，还是尊重和服从自己的选择吧。在此，向看官们推荐一本个人认为的好书：Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2004), Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets （2nd Edition), New York, New York: Texere.

[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]1985年6月30日晚5点半，中国民航波音737飞离北京机场。上海出关检查后，22岁的我怀着忐忑不安又无限憧憬的心情，踏上了背井离乡、远渡重洋的征程。[/FONT]

[FONT=仿宋体]1985年7月1日早9时许，飞机降落在旧金山机场。出关后，在年纪比较大的同行们（共来自8所大学：清华、人大、南开、天大、复旦、上海交大、西安交大、厦大）带领下步行一个小时去看了[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]规模巨大的同性恋者大游行。回到机场大约下午2时许，吃了午饭，随便走走就到了再登机的时候了。大概下午4点左右，登上[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]了美国联合航空公司的飞机，离开了旧金山。应该是下午5点半上下，飞机在温哥华机场[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]着陆。袋里装着43.75美元（厦门大学借给的50美元路费在旧金山机场买了包烟后剩下的，午饭是[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]到旧金山接我们的UBC英语培训班组织者John Redman给买的，而借给的800人民币置装费给女朋友买了几件裙子后都留给了父母），我踏上了这片陌生的土地。迎接我的是清新的空气、碧绿的天空、明媚的阳光和在机场等候的热情洋溢的[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]UBC英语培训班老师（女的，现在回头想才知道那才叫漂亮，好像叫Jennifer，记不清了。后来还居然两次hitch hike过她的车，就是少了根心眼，咳！！！！！）和年过花甲两鬓斑白的房东老太及当晚的国庆节烟花。

7月的温哥华花山花海风景如画。无奈，有心赏花却无力为之。[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]高强度[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]英语培训[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]为期只有两个月[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]，这短暂的培训后就得到学校正式上课了，奖学金为期两年，必须拿下24门功课的MBA学位，压力可谓不小。如用中文上课，那一定是小菜几碟而已，小子不边学边玩才见鬼呢。大考大玩、小考小玩的事小子可干过不少，连1979年决定是穿皮鞋还是穿草鞋的高考前夜，小子因为没父母在身边管着都敢去看电影呢！但该死的英语，还得从头学起，不能不令人胆寒。朝10晚4的连续全部英语上课及繁重的课余作业压得人连气都喘不过来（虽然TOEFL考得高分，但在课本上以语法为重点的非英语专业的几句洋泾浜英语在那个全面英语的环境里实在显得太单薄了，怎么使劲就是不灵光）。

[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]幸运的是房东老爷老太去过中国几次，对中国文化和中国人有着浓烈美好的感情,要我们叫Uncle George和Aunty Fredda。子女都成年外住了，两老待我及另外一位同住的厦大同学有如子侄，生活上的关怀照顾无微不至，学习上的关心鼓励从未间断。怕我们思乡情切，每周六晚都开party,请来好友凑热闹，不仅教会了我们怎么hitch hike往来3rd Avenue（他们家）和UBC校园之间的车辆，还在周末带我们到维多利亚和西雅图游玩。初到加拿大得到了二老慈祥温馨的厚爱，[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]至今思来甜蜜无限，[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]铭刻五腑，没齿难忘呀！2000年到温哥华开全加经济学年会，专程赶去看望二老，当年的房子全都推倒重建了，景物不再人事全非，再也找不到二老的踪迹了，痛心[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]无状[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]、遗憾[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]难言，唯在心中捎去最美好的祝愿！

1985年7月到9月，我在温哥华不仅[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]接受了[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]两个月极端紧张又强度特高的英语培训，还度过了记忆犹新美好无限的日子；感激不尽、终身难忘的房东二老，不仅给了我生活学习上的关心关怀，也[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]让我平生第一次认识了改变这一辈子的股票---知道股票是啥回事就是在[/FONT][FONT=仿宋体]房东家开始的。[/FONT]