精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

问世间股票为何物？

毛泽东叶飞当入党介绍人、“资本论”的翻译者、厦门大学校长兼经济系系主任王亚南的徒孙，因“投资组合多样化”股票理论而得诺贝尔经济学奖的James Tobin的徒孙，加拿大三大经济学家之一的Lars Osberg（Globe and Mail评的，不是我讲的）位列门墙5年的徒子，始不知股票为何物，进而两度血本无归、负债累累，不可思议吧？这是实实在在的，一点也不值得大惊小怪！被视为美国有史以来最杰出的股票操作家Jesse Livermore是小学3年级缀学的！

当洋教授的学生进而两度血本无归是1985年9月以后的事，书还是从1985年7月在房东家第一次认识股票前后写起吧。

凭借年纪轻及旺盛的记忆力，“政治经济学资本主义部分”当年还真得了满分，厚厚的4卷“资本论”也日夜不停地啃过背过 （宿舍熄灯后躲在被窝里用手电筒背书的事常干，特别是背“资本论”那阵子），考试当然期期满分！4年的大学3年念完毕业了，[FONT=仿宋体]陶大镛也免考招入了门下准备送到北外学一年英语后保送剑桥了，福特人口学基金会的研究生也考上了并准备[/FONT]上哈佛（寄名人大乌沧萍），就是硬没碰上股票这个概念。

(游泳去也，空闲时接着写。就是这拼音不好，打字特慢，好不熬人！还好有的是时间，第二部的内容好歹也有个三五年吧？)

 

[wiiwii]

欢迎欢迎

 

[加京游子]

续笔前的题外话

我出生偏远的农村，自小家境贫寒，兄弟姐妹6人靠父亲的一把锄头养大，如果不是1979年有每月22.5元的人民助学金，即使考上大学也肯定上不了的，100%地交不起像现在那样五花八门繁杂沉重的学杂费。

在此发帖，只想了却一桩心愿，慢慢地为想了很久的这本业余书动笔。我非“中国Buffett”谭xx，那个想创一个stock pool的念头没3天就胎死腹中了，为台湾风灾捐款而举办options讲座的念头没过几天也断了。“月过十五光华少，人到中年万念灰”，只想管好自家的三分地、两头牛。如果有幸赶上好行情赚点，就想早点退休以便吃香喝辣、种花养鱼、游山玩水、自在逍遥。

按原来的想法、续前面的思路，我会在饭后茶余闲来无事时断断续续地敲上几行，读者看官们当娱乐吧。

 

[加京游子]

AA beats both top line and bottom line

Though never a market mover, AA beats convincingly and that is great news nonetheless. Will this signify a "less bad" 3QER season ahead? Will markets push to new highs of the year and crush key milestones? I have more questions than answers. But the kickoff is a great start. Should markets push higher, enormours pressures will be on big boys who missed the great run from March and then again from June to make up missed gains in less than 3 months to report to their investing clients. Interesting to watch the market in the next while, to say the least.

 

[加京游子]

Portfolio update

DNDN is range-bound again after the pre-Analyst Day surge. I have started accumulation for my trading portion a few days ago, not fully done yet.

Subject to the nonsense political cloud over the last couple of months and now the CEO retirement/new CEO selection uncertainty, BAC hasn't done anything for nearly two months. I added some.

Hitting the high of 12.5 momentarily, SVA has been shorted and naked shorted all the way down to 7. As planned for an H1N1 play, I started buying calls and selling puts around 9 and added aggressively all the way down to the low 7's.

Reaching the intra-day high of 14.3 from the high 8's in a 7-session rally, MGM displayed a classic one-day reversal pattern. I started buying back on the second leg down around 12, added some on the way up to mid-12, and added aggressively on the third leg down all the way to low 10s.

After missing LVS' 2 powerful runs, I was determined not to miss another and started buying it around 16, added a lot more in the low 15's.

ELN remains a dog. After my re-entry in the mid-7's post the JNJ confirmation news, it has been down almost every day.

For the first time since Feb., I was completely out of DVAX a few days ago.

 

[加京游子]

DNDN: my potential blunder of the year!!!!!

DNDN filed SEC Form 4 after the market close yesterday, granting stock and stock options to new BOD members: Pedro Granadillo and Ian Clark.

Dendreon: Targeting Cancer, Transforming Lives

No, please no partnership announcement now. I am still far far away from the number of calls I want.

This remains a mystery. These two heavy weights have not been announced as BOD members yet. How can the company grant stock and optons to them? It appears a PR is imminent Monday before market opens. If this is the case, it definitely constitutes my blunder of the year. I attmpted to time some trades. Yet, this may burn me big time.

A little background on these two: Pedro Granadillo, Global Marketing SVP, Eli Lilly; Ian Clark, incoming CEO, Genentech.

Implications from this are simply monumental. Granadillo is retiring, it is understandable to sit on the BOD collecting fees; but Clark is simply too busy to sit on the BOD for fun.

More on the two new BOD members:

Dendreon Recruits Genentech CEO, Former Lilly Manufacturing Chief to Board | Xconomy

Getting my finger ready for the buy button Monday PM should there be no trading halt.

 

[加京游子]

This shows how packed Venetian Macau was

Macau

Venetian Macau is one of LVS' Macau operations. Following the successful HK IPO of Wynn, LVS' HK IPO is expected any time now. Anybody currently in LVS?

 

[加京游子]

Happy Thanksgiving!

It is a big week ahead for market participants as major 3QERs and significant economic data are coming down the pipe. Here is to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving and gainful market participation! Should DNDN PR not hit the wire before 8am, I will be busy buying DNDN shares at the PM and in the options pits when the market opens. But if big news hits and the pps runs above 35, I will let it go.

 

[加京游子]

Got DNDN at $30

Now have to wait until the options market opens to grab the options I want.

Anybody reading and thinking about getting into DNDN be warned: if news doesn't hit today, DNDN will likely take a hard hit as shorts may pile on. I have a very strong stomach for DNDN and will add very aggressively should a big dip take place. Be careful and responsible for your own moves. In my weak moments, I sold the majority of my LEAP calls (40 and 50 strikes) and have been in agony since early Saturday morning after reading the SEC Form 4 filing. This is the moment for me to regain my DNDN holdings. One point or two doesn't even figure in my DNDN cost consideration.

 

[加京游子]

Added more DNDN shares

The options are trading up to the roof. I will just keep whatever I have left with the LEAP calls and add to shares on dips.

 

[加京游子]

I am off a point now with my DNDN shares bough today

Maybe I am reading too much into the fact that DNDN added Ian Clark onto the BOD. But common sense dictates that adding the CEO of Genentech is a non-trivial event. Why there is still no PR is a mystery to me. Too bad my chunk of cash is tied up with SVA puts and I can't add more shares right here and now. The full story hasn't yet played out --- my speculation is Roche as the ROW partner and I have all the patience to wait for the announcement. If LEAP calls correct somewhat in pricing, I shall add LEAP calls. There appears to be bear raids in MGM and LVS too. And I can only watch, sigh.

I stand corrected: DNDN PR was out at 12:59PM confirming the addition of two new members to the BOD. But the wording was wrong. They were not elected to the BOD at the AGM. Rather, they were added by whatever reason not yet disclosed. I was snoffing off when this PR hit the wire and also the bear raids in MGM and LVS took place. Small bumps in the paths forward!

 

[加京游子]

Let me throw this out before calling the day off

DNDN will blow out 40-45 in a heart beat at the moment the ROW partnership is announced. My speculation is either Roche or SNY. There may be a bidding war going on as I am writing. I don't know when this announcement is coming but I am very confident it is coming. It can be as soon as tomorrow PM. DNA CEO can't simply be added to any BOD just for fun. This is deadly serious business. I am looking to add either shares or LEAP CALLS very aggressively if and when the opportunity presents itself. I am, as of the close, one full point under water but I am very glad that I did not miss the ROW partnership annoucement, the likelihood of which has unstoppingly agonized me for the entire weekend.

On the encouraging front, BAC closed over 18 for the 1st time since March.

SVA will have its day eventually, just one PR away.

My two casino/hospitality stocks are badly manipulated today but I am confident they will see the sunshine of the day and soon. Raising gambling age limit from 18 to 21 should by no means constrain the exponential explosion of revenue growth in Macau. Wall Street has this well-known herd mentality. One shall profit enormously should one be able to go against it. I blame myself not reserving enough cash for these unexpected buying opportunities.

Too much to learn, from not trying to time to reserving big cash.

Happy Thanksgiving evening!

p.s. I have sold off my last batch of ELN LEAP CALLS, taking a huge loss.

 

[加京游子]

For the hack of it

Since so many of you are interested in my portfolio via emails/QQH, here they are, excuse for not replying individually. Sorry, I can't disclose position sizes:
Ticker Average cost base

DNDN 29.67 (bought 3 times today, burnt over 100K)
ORGAH 3.9
ORGAJ 2.6
VBAAH 0.38
SVAAU 2.17
SVAMU 1.63 (-)
MGMAC 0.94
VYGAD 2.23
ZAUAF 2.75

Expect to tripple portfolio value by Xmas; sitting on a sizable chunk of cash locked in by SVAMU, hopefully being freed and usable soon should SVA surge on some positive news. The SVAMU play was intended for free cash and I fully intend to let it expire worthless given my calls position, although it locks in the cash I hope to put to work at DNDN.

 

[加京游子]

Just for the fun of it

Anybody watched the mother of all short squeezes August last year for Volkswagan from 28 to 1002 euros in 8 trading sessions when Porche announced that it has acquired 92% of the shares in the open market? The magnitude is out of my wildest imagination but given the low float and short size in DNDN, a fairly fun short squeeze may happen in the forseeable future. Have your tickets! SVA shorts will pay very dearly too at a news-trigger.

 

[加京游子]

I don't normally day trade

So the chance of me getting hard hit in a sudden move in the course of a day is pretty slim (forget about daily account balance). It goes without saying that my portfolio has a long biase built in. Get out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat.