精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
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lazycatcat
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Not sure why Jia is completely gone all of a sudden. His historical portfolio is not doing well in the current market.
One always find one's true character in a major downturn. I wish him luck in re-energizing his investment efforts ...
For all people interested in investment on this board, I hope there is more sensible talk on either investment or speculation, rather than preying for ups or downs of tomorrow's market.
One always find one's true character in a major downturn. I wish him luck in re-energizing his investment efforts ...
For all people interested in investment on this board, I hope there is more sensible talk on either investment or speculation, rather than preying for ups or downs of tomorrow's market.
Healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!
生活发生了巨变, 久违了! 先向大家拜个晚年, 祝大家在新的一年里身体健康、幸福快乐、财运亨通！
过去的一年百感交集，SVA赔得没脾气（短时间内的6位数损失）、BAC和MGM的狠跌也让我把大部分的利润都退还了市场；新年伊始，DNDN和BAC的头4天给了我个大开门红，卖了2/3的BAC一月$16的calls，但愿好的兆头预示好的结尾！
Rambus vs Samsong下礼拜一就要开庭了，估计股价会有大的变动。我既买了一月$24、$25的calls, 也买了$22.5的puts，别下礼拜5收在22-25就好！有兴趣的朋友们，自己做好功课，明天是开庭前的最后一天交易！
生活发生了巨变, 久违了! 先向大家拜个晚年, 祝大家在新的一年里身体健康、幸福快乐、财运亨通！
过去的一年百感交集，SVA赔得没脾气（短时间内的6位数损失）、BAC和MGM的狠跌也让我把大部分的利润都退还了市场；新年伊始，DNDN和BAC的头4天给了我个大开门红，卖了2/3的BAC一月$16的calls，但愿好的兆头预示好的结尾！
Rambus vs Samsong下礼拜一就要开庭了，估计股价会有大的变动。我既买了一月$24、$25的calls, 也买了$22.5的puts，别下礼拜5收在22-25就好！有兴趣的朋友们，自己做好功课，明天是开庭前的最后一天交易！
I view market participation as a long-term pursuit
Short-term gains are great and short-term losses are very hard to take. I have enjoyed phenominal short-term gains and suffered devastating short-term losses over the course of the last 9 months or so. The key is not to lose one's working capital and not to lose one's confidence as well as the desire to participate. Over the course of my on-and-off not-so-long stock market participation history, I have realized one thing and that is I am the biggest enemy of myself, nothing can defeat me if I don't defeat myself. Despite short-term volatility, the stock market remains the most valuable vehicle for wealth generation/preservation. As a careful student of the market, I intend to participate for many years to come.
All the very best of wishes to all!
Short-term gains are great and short-term losses are very hard to take. I have enjoyed phenominal short-term gains and suffered devastating short-term losses over the course of the last 9 months or so. The key is not to lose one's working capital and not to lose one's confidence as well as the desire to participate. Over the course of my on-and-off not-so-long stock market participation history, I have realized one thing and that is I am the biggest enemy of myself, nothing can defeat me if I don't defeat myself. Despite short-term volatility, the stock market remains the most valuable vehicle for wealth generation/preservation. As a careful student of the market, I intend to participate for many years to come.
All the very best of wishes to all!
lazycatcat
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Welcome back, Jia. The board is almost without life while you were away.
Happy New Year !
If you can afford to risk 6 figure on options, I think there are better and lasting ways to play. If you are interested, we can talk via email.
I recently found SPU, a Chinese company focusing on fruit juice concentration. It is difficult to put a valuation on this company but I like its business model. Maybe good for venture like operation.
I noticed Rambus for sometime. This company has the highest P/E in tech. However, I can't figure out what is its potential gain from law suit. Any ideas ?
I am following WFR in semi-sector. It is a Wafer manufacturer and has $4 dollar cash per share without debt. It has management churn recently but could be interesting if economy starts to recover.
The only thing is I can't find its competitor etc ...
Happy New Year !
If you can afford to risk 6 figure on options, I think there are better and lasting ways to play. If you are interested, we can talk via email.
I recently found SPU, a Chinese company focusing on fruit juice concentration. It is difficult to put a valuation on this company but I like its business model. Maybe good for venture like operation.
I noticed Rambus for sometime. This company has the highest P/E in tech. However, I can't figure out what is its potential gain from law suit. Any ideas ?
I am following WFR in semi-sector. It is a Wafer manufacturer and has $4 dollar cash per share without debt. It has management churn recently but could be interesting if economy starts to recover.
The only thing is I can't find its competitor etc ...
Cat: after all these written communications throughout last year, I realised on thing and that is that maybe you are the only one qualified to talk to me. Yes, I put in 250K into SVA options and lost 190K when I closed the position. I also lost 50K in BAC options and 100K in MGM options. My year ended up with a 1200% returns, not too bad by any standards but I am pissed at myself, losing 1/4 million in the last 3 months, chiefly from SVA call options.
My DNDN position was built quite some time ago. I am hugely up and I have no intension to close that soon.
BAC Jan. 16 calls gave me working capital to have fun for 2010, a weekly return of 1200% in the new year, I have closed that position yesterday. My short-term fun will be from RMBS next week. A close price of either above 30 or below 15 will give me a 6-figure profit. My breakeven is either 19.6 or 25.7. Anything between 22.5-25 will completely wipe my investment out. A close above 30 or below 15 will profit me largely but my friend said it is either 40 or 10. That would be great for my brokerage account. I put the range in 15-30 and if either end materializes, I will profit in the low 6-figures, anything above 30 or below 15 is bonus. I won't make any move until the RMBS story closes.
My DNDN position was built quite some time ago. I am hugely up and I have no intension to close that soon.
BAC Jan. 16 calls gave me working capital to have fun for 2010, a weekly return of 1200% in the new year, I have closed that position yesterday. My short-term fun will be from RMBS next week. A close price of either above 30 or below 15 will give me a 6-figure profit. My breakeven is either 19.6 or 25.7. Anything between 22.5-25 will completely wipe my investment out. A close above 30 or below 15 will profit me largely but my friend said it is either 40 or 10. That would be great for my brokerage account. I put the range in 15-30 and if either end materializes, I will profit in the low 6-figures, anything above 30 or below 15 is bonus. I won't make any move until the RMBS story closes.
lazycatcat
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Hi Jia,
Glad to learn that you are overall positive quite nicely last year. I am really impressed with your conviction and zeal with speculation and investment. On this front, we share common ground. Therefore, I will be glad if you are successful.
I know your approach is different from mine. However, we may share ideas on option trading and I will send you a private email on some ideas.
As a example here on the type of operation I like to do, I use KFT as an example. KFT was traded at around $26 one or two weeks ago. Its final bid for Cadbury is due on Jan. 20th, a few days later than Jan. 15th option expiration.
About a week ago, KFT's $29 Jan 15th call could be bought at $0.02 cents with $28 call probably at around $0.15 cents. 1000 calls at $29 would cost $3K, including commission. It was trading at $0.40 cents yesterday. A profit of $40K with max loss of $3K.
Rational for such bet is: 1). KFT couldn't trade lower than $25 due to valuation. 2). Buffett, owning 10%, explicitly expressed reservation on the deal in CNBC a few months ago. 3). Probability of Hershey giving up is pretty high.
Going forward, I think normalization of bank earnings and cyclical nature of some industry such as semi and shoe industry are good candidates for such option trading. However, a better strategy is needed versus the above suicidal way. As capital requirement will be larger, there should be ways to offset total losses.
I wish you good luck on Rambus trading. As far as I know, the law suit will drag out into the future but my knowledge might be stale.
Your bet on DNDN is surely remarkable.
Glad to learn that you are overall positive quite nicely last year. I am really impressed with your conviction and zeal with speculation and investment. On this front, we share common ground. Therefore, I will be glad if you are successful.
I know your approach is different from mine. However, we may share ideas on option trading and I will send you a private email on some ideas.
As a example here on the type of operation I like to do, I use KFT as an example. KFT was traded at around $26 one or two weeks ago. Its final bid for Cadbury is due on Jan. 20th, a few days later than Jan. 15th option expiration.
About a week ago, KFT's $29 Jan 15th call could be bought at $0.02 cents with $28 call probably at around $0.15 cents. 1000 calls at $29 would cost $3K, including commission. It was trading at $0.40 cents yesterday. A profit of $40K with max loss of $3K.
Rational for such bet is: 1). KFT couldn't trade lower than $25 due to valuation. 2). Buffett, owning 10%, explicitly expressed reservation on the deal in CNBC a few months ago. 3). Probability of Hershey giving up is pretty high.
Going forward, I think normalization of bank earnings and cyclical nature of some industry such as semi and shoe industry are good candidates for such option trading. However, a better strategy is needed versus the above suicidal way. As capital requirement will be larger, there should be ways to offset total losses.
I wish you good luck on Rambus trading. As far as I know, the law suit will drag out into the future but my knowledge might be stale.
Your bet on DNDN is surely remarkable.
CAT: The FDA PDUFA date is May 1 for DNDN's Provenge. Given the 9902B results last April, some of my friends feel DNDN PPS has probably been priced in already while others think there is huge upside potentials. My own feeling is that Provenge's approval is 90-95% a given but when it comes to the FDA, nothing is writing on the walls until I have seen the Approval Letter. Having experienced the devastation in May 2007, I will surely get some May puts for insurance. That aside, my DNDN strategy is large based on the approval assumption. My expectation is that an ROW partnership will shortly follow Provenge's approval. My own reading of the reasons for the partnership not having materialized yet is the combination of the high asking price and regulatory risk. Once Provenge approval is in the bag, I think the partnership will also cover the development of Nuevenge. For now, I just want to deal with Provenge and let re-evaluation take its course later. Provenge full production won't happen until all three facilities are fully online, which were originally expected by mid-2012 but now about 1/2 year earlier. In the short term, two DNDN tradable catalysts are Provenge approval and the ROW partnership. I have never been a technical trader and gotten increasingly less inclined to become one. Unless Provenge is not approved by the FDA again, my stay with DNDN will go for at least another 10 years or I quit the market.
Next week is key for RMBS and I added to both of my Jan. calls and puts positions last Friday. The legal battles may drag on for quite some time but key decisions will take place next week. I need a decisive indication from the judge, either positive or negative. Given the way RMBS has run up last year, I expect a 30-50% move in the pps either way. My position was taken for such an expecation, albeit a few days too early.
I viewed BAC's TARP repayment as a huge positive and made a huge long move upon the news. Market reactions were about two weeks too late for me and I suffered tremendous losses. I completely closed my BAC positions last Friday. Going forward, I will wait until JPM reports to establish my financial positions leaning towards short (puts), given my speculations that financials won't hugely turn around until the second half of the year (3QER).
H1N1 and hence SVA was my biggest wrong call last year. As such, my loss was humongous there. I made great calls for the hospitality (gaming) and airline sectors but I did not have the conviction to stay with MGM, LVS and UAUA and missed out great runs. Another great call but a huge miss was GNW. I also traded HUNT for peanuts.
For biotech plays, my eyes are on ELN and ARNA. ELN's huge catalyst is the P3 aab-001 results, expected by mid-year and presented at ICAD in July. Market sales for aab-001 are expected around $10B two years following approval. ELN only owns 1/4 aab-001 after the JNJ deal but enough to make its pps into 3 digits upon a positive result announcement/approval. ARNA's FDA PDUFA date is not expected until late-2010 but I expect a partnership around mid-year.
These are what my eyes are sharply on for now. I am sure new things will emerge as the year wears on. Best luck to you and all the readers.
Next week is key for RMBS and I added to both of my Jan. calls and puts positions last Friday. The legal battles may drag on for quite some time but key decisions will take place next week. I need a decisive indication from the judge, either positive or negative. Given the way RMBS has run up last year, I expect a 30-50% move in the pps either way. My position was taken for such an expecation, albeit a few days too early.
I viewed BAC's TARP repayment as a huge positive and made a huge long move upon the news. Market reactions were about two weeks too late for me and I suffered tremendous losses. I completely closed my BAC positions last Friday. Going forward, I will wait until JPM reports to establish my financial positions leaning towards short (puts), given my speculations that financials won't hugely turn around until the second half of the year (3QER).
H1N1 and hence SVA was my biggest wrong call last year. As such, my loss was humongous there. I made great calls for the hospitality (gaming) and airline sectors but I did not have the conviction to stay with MGM, LVS and UAUA and missed out great runs. Another great call but a huge miss was GNW. I also traded HUNT for peanuts.
For biotech plays, my eyes are on ELN and ARNA. ELN's huge catalyst is the P3 aab-001 results, expected by mid-year and presented at ICAD in July. Market sales for aab-001 are expected around $10B two years following approval. ELN only owns 1/4 aab-001 after the JNJ deal but enough to make its pps into 3 digits upon a positive result announcement/approval. ARNA's FDA PDUFA date is not expected until late-2010 but I expect a partnership around mid-year.
These are what my eyes are sharply on for now. I am sure new things will emerge as the year wears on. Best luck to you and all the readers.
lazycatcat
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Thanks for sharing on Rambus and the bio companies. I will keep an eye on DNDN in May.
I digged into Rambus a bit but couldn't figure out the law suit situation next week. The following might be event you are looking for ?
"At the hearing regarding coordination on November 6, 2009, Judge Kramer made clear that he would recommend coordination so long as it does not delay the commencement of the Rambus antitrust jury trial on January 11, 2010," said Thomas Lavelle, senior vice president and general counsel of Rambus. "Consistent with those statements, we are preparing to start our trial in January and we look forward to confirmation from Judge Kramer when he returns to court next week."
Next week might be interesting for big banks. I will share my thoughts in the next posting.
I digged into Rambus a bit but couldn't figure out the law suit situation next week. The following might be event you are looking for ?
"At the hearing regarding coordination on November 6, 2009, Judge Kramer made clear that he would recommend coordination so long as it does not delay the commencement of the Rambus antitrust jury trial on January 11, 2010," said Thomas Lavelle, senior vice president and general counsel of Rambus. "Consistent with those statements, we are preparing to start our trial in January and we look forward to confirmation from Judge Kramer when he returns to court next week."
Next week might be interesting for big banks. I will share my thoughts in the next posting.
lazycatcat
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The big banks should start earning normalization this year. The first step is for big banks to stop adding to credit allowance but maintain current charge-off level (still elevated from normal level).
JPM has the strongest management among big three (BAC and WFC) and is ahead in resolving credit issues. Its credit allowance is over 4% of total loans and its deposit quality is high at par with that of WFC.
JPM put aside over $8 B for credit allowance in Q3 with over $6 B of charge-off. The difference of $2 B could be profit if allowance build stops in Q4. It is anyone's guess when actually this may happen. However, the probability of this happening in Q4 is realistic.
If this is true, JPM could report over $1 per share for Q4 and its stock price rising close to $50 is not inconceivable on the news. Plus, this would be also positive for other big banks, especially WFC etc.
Of course, JPM could report earnings sub-normal or at par with market expectation. Then, the share price probably will still be range trading for sometime.
If one has some capital to risk and wants to bet the above situation with option, it probably makes sense to write at money or slightly in-money Feb put option of conservative banks such as WFC or USB and use the received premium on out of money Jan JPM calls.
The risk of put writing probably is contained due to current valuation of big banks.
Just an idea to share ...
JPM has the strongest management among big three (BAC and WFC) and is ahead in resolving credit issues. Its credit allowance is over 4% of total loans and its deposit quality is high at par with that of WFC.
JPM put aside over $8 B for credit allowance in Q3 with over $6 B of charge-off. The difference of $2 B could be profit if allowance build stops in Q4. It is anyone's guess when actually this may happen. However, the probability of this happening in Q4 is realistic.
If this is true, JPM could report over $1 per share for Q4 and its stock price rising close to $50 is not inconceivable on the news. Plus, this would be also positive for other big banks, especially WFC etc.
Of course, JPM could report earnings sub-normal or at par with market expectation. Then, the share price probably will still be range trading for sometime.
If one has some capital to risk and wants to bet the above situation with option, it probably makes sense to write at money or slightly in-money Feb put option of conservative banks such as WFC or USB and use the received premium on out of money Jan JPM calls.
The risk of put writing probably is contained due to current valuation of big banks.
Just an idea to share ...
Busy at the options pits
1) Sold 80% of DNDN 2011 50 calls in the morning for a nice profit
2) Bought AMAG Feb. 50 puts in the morning, moving from 36 to 52 in two days is simply too much too fast
3) Bought LVS Feb. 18 puts in the afternoon
4) Bought MGM Feb. 12 puts at the close
LVS and MGM had great runs in the new year, MGM's big run today was triggered by GS upgrade, which also rated LVS and WINN favourably. I missed the runup and wanted to gain on their way down. It is becoming my habit to short/put whatever was upgraded by brokerage houses, especially GS.
RMBS vs Samsung ect. case trial court opening was delayed from last Monday to tomorrow, expecting the pps to make a big move after the opening statements. My positions were taken a few days too early and suffered significant paper losses. Yesterday and today presented great chances to add but my positioins were fully loaded last week, expecting the court opening to be yesterday.
Went to lunch with a buddy and missed NEXM's news and a doubler in the afternoon. I don't chase huge runners but this is a low-priced bio, the pps is too low to short and no options to play with.
1) Sold 80% of DNDN 2011 50 calls in the morning for a nice profit
2) Bought AMAG Feb. 50 puts in the morning, moving from 36 to 52 in two days is simply too much too fast
3) Bought LVS Feb. 18 puts in the afternoon
4) Bought MGM Feb. 12 puts at the close
LVS and MGM had great runs in the new year, MGM's big run today was triggered by GS upgrade, which also rated LVS and WINN favourably. I missed the runup and wanted to gain on their way down. It is becoming my habit to short/put whatever was upgraded by brokerage houses, especially GS.
RMBS vs Samsung ect. case trial court opening was delayed from last Monday to tomorrow, expecting the pps to make a big move after the opening statements. My positions were taken a few days too early and suffered significant paper losses. Yesterday and today presented great chances to add but my positioins were fully loaded last week, expecting the court opening to be yesterday.
Went to lunch with a buddy and missed NEXM's news and a doubler in the afternoon. I don't chase huge runners but this is a low-priced bio, the pps is too low to short and no options to play with.
BAC is going through a sea change in management
New CEO aside, the chief risk officer was outsed and CFO moved to lead a division today. The SEC today also levied extra charges against BAC for the Merrill merger. It will take time for all of these to settle. I got some Feb. 17 calls yesterday after closing my Jan. 16 calls position last week. I am under water a lot again in these calls. BAC remains a significant bank story to play out in the immediate and long term.
New CEO aside, the chief risk officer was outsed and CFO moved to lead a division today. The SEC today also levied extra charges against BAC for the Merrill merger. It will take time for all of these to settle. I got some Feb. 17 calls yesterday after closing my Jan. 16 calls position last week. I am under water a lot again in these calls. BAC remains a significant bank story to play out in the immediate and long term.
RMBS made the move downwards forcefully
But I am still under water due to 1) my positions were taken last week and 2) I had far more calls than puts. I closed all my calls positions at open today, saving whatever left. The case seems getting more complicated as defendents are asking for delays. There are only two days left for Jan. options and I expect the pps to head south further but I won't profit until the pps breaks down below 20.
But I am still under water due to 1) my positions were taken last week and 2) I had far more calls than puts. I closed all my calls positions at open today, saving whatever left. The case seems getting more complicated as defendents are asking for delays. There are only two days left for Jan. options and I expect the pps to head south further but I won't profit until the pps breaks down below 20.
