精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
Closed my ELNHH position and unloaded some MGMAC today
ELN is moving against my expectations. I have no idea what force is in play but the lower lows and lower highs clearly point a short-term downtrend to me . While my bullish view on ELN long-term remains intact following the JNJ deal and rising Tysabri sales, the lowering pps along with the time value decay in August calls are the reasons for me to take the loss today. For trading purposes, I get out fast when a stock is moving in the direction against my expectations, especially short-term options.
I view my judgement on MGM as right but I made colossal mistakes in 2 senses: 1) I got in far too deep, owning hearly half of the OI; and 2) My mid-term call strikes are way too far from the pps. MGM has moved up over 30% from the low around 5.5 in a few days. The right strike mid-term calls have since doubled or trippled. But the huge bid and ask spread for my calls is such that there are many days passing by without any trading. Today, the bid came up to .30 and I managed to unload some. Although time is on my side (nearly half a year left), I consider this MGM mid-term calls operation a failure, and as such, I took advantage of the strength in the last few days to unload some to correct my mistake today. I shall continue to do so on any strength.
I am no good at short-term trading. Every time I attempt at trading, I hold too long and end up with losses. Maybe the 10-bagger, 20-bagger BAC short-term calls in the last few months got into my mind. Those were simply lucky. Under normal circumstances, multiple baggers can only be made by patiently waiting for the long term. I need to get back to the basic. The closing of ELNHH and unloading of MGMAC operations today were meant to conserve capital to serve such purposes, to fight for another day as they say. Under any circumstances, it is always advisable to sit on some cash reserve. My operations today at least achieved a little of that.
In AH ERs, MSFT, AMZN, AXP all reported non-desirable results which may stall DOW moving to 10K and S&P reaching 1K temporarily, which I truly believe is nonetheless inevitable within the year. I am out of short-term trading positions now and can afford to sit back and watch.
Good luck, everyone!
ELN is moving against my expectations. I have no idea what force is in play but the lower lows and lower highs clearly point a short-term downtrend to me . While my bullish view on ELN long-term remains intact following the JNJ deal and rising Tysabri sales, the lowering pps along with the time value decay in August calls are the reasons for me to take the loss today. For trading purposes, I get out fast when a stock is moving in the direction against my expectations, especially short-term options.
I view my judgement on MGM as right but I made colossal mistakes in 2 senses: 1) I got in far too deep, owning hearly half of the OI; and 2) My mid-term call strikes are way too far from the pps. MGM has moved up over 30% from the low around 5.5 in a few days. The right strike mid-term calls have since doubled or trippled. But the huge bid and ask spread for my calls is such that there are many days passing by without any trading. Today, the bid came up to .30 and I managed to unload some. Although time is on my side (nearly half a year left), I consider this MGM mid-term calls operation a failure, and as such, I took advantage of the strength in the last few days to unload some to correct my mistake today. I shall continue to do so on any strength.
I am no good at short-term trading. Every time I attempt at trading, I hold too long and end up with losses. Maybe the 10-bagger, 20-bagger BAC short-term calls in the last few months got into my mind. Those were simply lucky. Under normal circumstances, multiple baggers can only be made by patiently waiting for the long term. I need to get back to the basic. The closing of ELNHH and unloading of MGMAC operations today were meant to conserve capital to serve such purposes, to fight for another day as they say. Under any circumstances, it is always advisable to sit on some cash reserve. My operations today at least achieved a little of that.
In AH ERs, MSFT, AMZN, AXP all reported non-desirable results which may stall DOW moving to 10K and S&P reaching 1K temporarily, which I truly believe is nonetheless inevitable within the year. I am out of short-term trading positions now and can afford to sit back and watch.
Good luck, everyone!
Good for you! IMHO, BAC will be just fine long term but C will be sick for a long time to come. Can you bring C up to over 5 such that I can short the day light off it? Just a joke. Seriously, as an individual account holder, I can't short any stock under 5. But I will surely short AIG and C when the opportunities present themselves. AIG is fundamentally wothless. C is sick even after converting perferred's into common's. US stake is too huge for C to be busiess effective. For your sake, I hope I am wrong in my view regarding C.
Just to share, I add on dips for long-term positions and sell on strength for trading.
近来的确短期交易很不顺，尽力在总结。但还是不想就这样否定了自己自３月来的总的情况，这些也正是我信心十足的基础。我是从发帖起记录交易情况的，之前的交易都没贴上，只贴了分析。ＤＮＤＮ我现在空仓了，但我的股票是４．０７买的，２７．４卖的；１．３９卖的５月的２．５ｐｕｔ自然过期；ＯＲＧＡＨ ４．３买的，６．１０卖的；ＢＡＣ３月的５元ｃａｌｌｓ０．１１买的，两天后０．９７卖的，４月７元的ｃａｌｌｓ０．３７买的，几天后１．９卖的，５月１２．５和１４的ｃａｌｌｓ是０．０５和０．１１买的，前者０．９７卖的，后者１．６３卖的（我做ｏｐｔｉｏｎｓ每手不少于１００个ｃｏｎｔｒａｃｔｓ）。ＤＶＡＸ１．２４买，第２天１．８９卖；０．６７买当天０．９７卖；１．２１买，２．０９卖。。。。。。 我现在所有的仓位都是ＤＮＤＮ、ＢＡＣ和ＤＶＡＸ赚来的，原来的本和一些利早拿去还２００７年ＤＮＤＮ留下的债了。近来几手短期交易赔了好几万，正总结呢。你的提醒很好，衷心感谢！讲这些交易不是为了什么，就想别让自己失去信心－－－我只要自己的信心动摇了，没有不赔的，看看ＢＣＲＸ你就明白了：３．７买的，２．５卖的，就是近期的是，今天收盘８．５－－－ＴＡ害我不浅呀！
常在河边走，哪能不湿鞋？错我不怕，灭顶之灾都经历两次了，Ｌｉｖｅｒｍｏｒｅ和Ｇｒａｈａｍ都破产了３次呢！只要我的对比错还有余，此愿足矣！
MGMAC：有两个礼拜我自己买，这两天我自己卖
昨天和今天把0.2买的MGMAC卖了一些。这样做并不意味着我认为当初买MGM的理由有任何改变或者MGM这波涨到头了，恰恰相反，我认为大涨还在后头，刚冲击技术突破点（pivotal point）呢。这两天这样做是为了纠正我昨天提到的两个错误：买了太多和定价离股价太远致使涨幅不大，压了资本可能误了买DNDN。我将按比例分批卖MGMAC，很有信心卖到一半时本钱已经拿回来了，剩的一半没本。但就是握一半到期限也太多，打算合适时还卖剩下一半的一半，用付成本等CC的年底竣工开业。
短期的BAC和ELN options交易赔了不少钱，今天都加了长期的，很有信心在不太远久的将来连本带息一并收回。
昨天MSFT，AMZN和AXP的ER's居然没有让今天的市场深红。这可是牛头的信息，大家可别做空呀！
昨天和今天把0.2买的MGMAC卖了一些。这样做并不意味着我认为当初买MGM的理由有任何改变或者MGM这波涨到头了，恰恰相反，我认为大涨还在后头，刚冲击技术突破点（pivotal point）呢。这两天这样做是为了纠正我昨天提到的两个错误：买了太多和定价离股价太远致使涨幅不大，压了资本可能误了买DNDN。我将按比例分批卖MGMAC，很有信心卖到一半时本钱已经拿回来了，剩的一半没本。但就是握一半到期限也太多，打算合适时还卖剩下一半的一半，用付成本等CC的年底竣工开业。
短期的BAC和ELN options交易赔了不少钱，今天都加了长期的，很有信心在不太远久的将来连本带息一并收回。
昨天MSFT，AMZN和AXP的ER's居然没有让今天的市场深红。这可是牛头的信息，大家可别做空呀！
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最近才注意到LZ的日记式连载。很佩服LZ承担风险的财力和心理能力。LZ举例用期权交易（options）短期能获大利。有两个问题有些不解。其一，业内的人士多认为：聪明人是靠卖option赚钱，而不是主要靠买option赚钱。因为后者是纯投机，而前者主要赚time value with sale of covered call (尤其象LZ这样选择deeply out of money 的options)。其二，股神巴菲的一句名言是：如果你不想拥有一个公司的股票至少１０年，那么你连１０分钟都不要拥有它，既避免短期，超短期的建仓(当然这只是个比喻，并非只允许buy and hold)。很想听听LZ怎么看待这两问题。我想起听过的一个笑话。一个炒股专家对听众说：我注重长期投资，不是day trader。有人问他，你的长期有多长？两个星期吧,专家答到。
祝LZ好运,挣大钱，早日实现百万目标。
祝LZ好运,挣大钱，早日实现百万目标。
谢谢你的美好祝愿！
第一，我非业内人士，涉足股市乃副业也。我做短期options都是围绕特殊事件的，否则就买长期calls。Options乃derivatives, for leverage plays. Together with common shares, they are hedge tools such as covered calls and protective puts. 我目前都是单向的calls，这样做必须建立在对公司做大量的研究和长期前景的信心上。以我目前的BAC仓位为例，如果是股票，我的本不足5000股，但买2011年1月的LEAP calls，我的实际控制在11万，到时in the money了，我会exercise一小部分。很有信心我的20 LEAP calls 在今年底前就会in the money。在我看来，对LEAP calls来说，如果买in the money，leverage的意义就不大了。我短期做options运气好，赚了点，但近来也赔了很多。对options不了解的人还是不碰少碰为妙！业内人士？对不起，我视业内人士为粪土！
第二，Warren Buffet是众所公认的股神，但有几个人对他的business真正花过心思研究？刚开始他在股市赚了点，但被TA误了8年。真正让他发大财的不是股票而是在没人要的时候收购了Coca Cola和Gilet并改变了management。以后越做越大是以后的事了！本人心目中的股神是Jesse Livermore, 赌神是Ed Bradley。很讽刺的是两人是最要好的哥们，但前者不涉足赌场而后者不涉足股场 --- 共同的热爱就是好酒美女！当然，那些是神，跟我没关系的。我目标一旦达到，很可能金盆洗手，吃香喝辣、游山玩水去了。至于你的笑话，我一点也没觉得幽默。专家？这个世界上有专家吗？
题外话，如果Warren Buffet的健康一有疑问，我就short他的公司。他公司的ticker是什么来着？BRA-K? 到他不行了，我大概就可以short个100-200股？当然，我不会short股票的，我会买put --- way out of the money put，比如，它今天的收盘价95300，我可能买1000个70000的long-term put！！ ！奶奶的，没有option呢。看来我想靠他赚点酒钱不行了，得另想办法，那就买AAPL的put吧，等Steve Jobs的脾癌扩散---GNVC可能近期有药可以上市呢，呵呵。
我的第一个百万目标，指日可待！但得下狠心牢牢握住手上的BAC calls并耐心等BAC在2011年1月前过40。那是第一桶金，以我这样的本，最难做到的，以后就要容易得多了！不过，那是万里长征的第一步，目标的1/20.
周末愉快！
谢谢LZ的提示。
另外看到LZ的下手也都很重，每次的合约都在500个，佩服
本人只是做一些 DITM的OPTION 和 Sell naked put option,小打小闹。
我的通常做法：想买股票就nake short-term puts；想卖股票就write covered calls （both out of the money)。接下来想做点straddle.
今天只卖了116个MGMCA at 0.35，16个是因为昨天卖剩的另头。一旦MGM过10，我将卖1200个MGMAC。那样的话，还剩有1/4等CC年底的竣工开业。“认得准、出手狠、动得快”，plunger必备的要素，可惜我的定价太高了，当时没想到它会动得这样大、这样快。但凭它的short position，一旦8.5 is painted，10-12指日可待and MGMAC will fly to the roof。我的200-300 ORGAH指望它呢！之所以买这么长的，就是给自己留有足够的时间等。如果买8-9月的，天呐，我已经发了！MGM will report 2QER on August 3。
