精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

I will hold on to my BAC LEAP calls regardless of what happens to its ER today

可能是因为BAC今天出ER吧，睡了几个钟头就醒了。原来的想法是如果BAC ER好，把剩下的8月calls卖掉同时也卖掉1/2的LEAP calls。但现在改变主意，LEAP calls不卖了，留下全部，看看我的第一个百万是否能来自BAC。股票不会直线涨跌的但BAC在2010年底前达到40是很有希望的，我坚信！

这个硬不起来的MGM，自买后没绿过几天。如果有持MGM的，给它喂点Viagra吧，真希望它能“金枪不倒”呀 --- 我还有200-300的ORGAH没买呢！

 

[加京游子]

BAC beat; C reported surprised profits

As I posted my expecations earlier, BAC's major components all performed well this Q but the credit-card and loan loss provisions were a big drag. Overall, the results beat street estimates rather convincingly. In the short term, the PPS may trade down a little but there is nothing to worry about over the long term for two obvious reasons: 1) The economy has showed apparent signs of bottoming and recovery --- this week's economic data and ERs are enough for me to reach this judgment; 2) The credit-card and loan loss provisions will become writeups (profits) when the economy turns around, which is not an issue of if but when. When this happens, all built-up loss reserves will become profits and lead to ballooning earnings and thus EPS. Fastening my seat belt, I am going for a long ride with the most undervalued major bank (just thinking about JPM's EPS and PPS for a second and doing a quick comparison reaffirm my strong conviction in BAC --- JPM's currently relative high PPS is based on perception rather than substance. So is BAC in reverse order. This gets to change sooner or later. This is not saying that JMP will not go higher. Rather, it is a matter of percentage difference.). The immediate catalyst for BAC PPS may come as quickly as within the weeks, the sale of Columbia Asset Management. BAC's First Republic Bank is also on the sale block but there is no sign of bids yet. A huge certain catalyst for the PPS but whose timing can not be pinpointed down is the announcement of TARP repayment (Mr. Lewis has stated in May that BAC intends to fully repay TARP by year's end).

C's surprised profits came from a one-time event, the sale of Smith Barney, which of course strengthen C's capital base.

Best of lucks to all!

 

[wiiwii]

also i made my decision, i will keep both for a long term

 

[wiiwii]

btw in china stock market I bought another 100k 000921
so now I have 200k 000921 in total.

 

[小傻]

also i made my decision, i will keep both for a long term

you are my hero

and now i know who is the biggest gambler in town

 

[加京游子]

卖了一半剩下的BAC August calls

很遗憾，没有操作好，让BAC August calls的纸上盈利跑了2/3。还好，礼拜三卖了3/5，不然不仅颗粒无收还要亏本了。打算最后剩的一点留到到期。

这整个礼拜BAC的LEAP calls交易都很不正常，礼拜一、三股价大涨它们不怎么涨，礼拜二、四股价没怎么动它们大跌，所有定价今天都大红大红的，完全与股票价脱节，真是哀鸿遍野，我没有任何可以解释的理由。以我的30定价为例，0.5收盘，那可是股票在9元多时的价格。5月底我到多伦多开会时，股价在11.5左右，我是在旅馆里0.6加的，回来后有一天股价涨到13.5左右，我0.97卖的，当天最高价0.99呢并且量很大，后来又跌回0.6时我买回来的，当时的股价在11.6上下。再以我做过的20定价为例，今天收在1.6，那可是我在股价为10.5上下时的买价，我是从1.3买到1.6的，在股价涨到15左右时3.3全部卖的，后来股价最高涨到15.5上下，那calls涨到3.8呢。我是卖了20定价后开始买30定价的，第一笔的100个合同是股价在13左右时1.05买的，后来股价一路跌，我一路加，大部分是0.6-0.7之间买的，多伦多回来后做的那笔差价交易，把均价降低了点。今天这个情况，我实在没法搞明白，the market is full of surprises, huh? 不管了，反正不卖，别为帐上的balance烦心就行了。如果下礼拜股价不怎么动而20或30定价的LEAP calls保持今天这个样子，我会做点差价的，以图赚点给30定价的仓位再降点均价。如果做，大概做20定价的，30定价的价位低，手续费的%显得太高了。

祝大家周末愉快！

p.s. 有方便的又想去Gatineau Park trail walking或Phillip Lake canoeing的，请给我打电话联系，我正找伴到野外散心。255-6006

 

[加京游子]

btw in china stock market I bought another 100k 000921
so now I have 200k 000921 in total.

哇，这可是挺重的仓位哟！你比我下手还狠，衷心祝愿你认得准、动得快，赚好多好多

今年3月6日看到国会要举行M2M hearing的消息后，我0.11买了500个BAC 3月5元定价的calls，3天后1.12卖掉，算是我重金涉足华尔街的第三次开始吧。卖了后马上接着买了200个BAC4月定价7的calls和0.75买了150 DNDN5月定价10的calls，卖了200个DNDN5月定价2.5的put。这就是我想做成一番副业的的本钱---US$6000。

经过了2005年ELN和2007年DNDN的两次灭顶之灾，我是真怕了，再也不敢也不会下这么狠的手了，任何一家的仓位都不会超过20% （以买时的投入为准，后来的变动难免会改动这种情况的，但如果市场没有发出变动的信号，我也不会改动的）。每个人的情况都不一样，也许这个仓位还不值你的零用钱呢，但还是祝你走运！

我连在美国上市的中国股票都不怎么碰（眼巴巴地看着BIDU、CYOU等涨呀涨呀也没动心。那天心血来潮买了NEP两天后就卖了，赚来了一个月房租和酒钱。原来想等跌回4.2上下再买，但都跌到3.6了也没再买，现在又涨回4.6了），更别说国内的股票了。这里边原因很多，心里没底是一个方面，时差也是原因之一，我白天还得上班呢。不管怎么说，你能下这样的狠手，我相信你不会空穴来风、无风起浪的，祝你大大地赚一笔，到时可别忘了请哥们喝一顿哟！BAC到40那天（必须在2011年一月期权到期前）就是我百万进袋的日子，你既想长期握着BAC，我们就是股友了，我们都发吧，到时喝酒也就不存在谁请谁这个问题了，我们go dutch。到底是BAC，ELN，DNDN，MGM哪家让我先赚到第一个百万，我现在心里也没底，最看好的是BAC和DNDN，但愿它们同一天到达我的目标吧，那可就是四喜临门哟！DVAX现在是我的银行，需要时就到它那里取点，有零钱了再存到它那里，就怕消息出来时踩空了，FDA的消息什么时候出真说不准的，但愿别在我轻仓时出。一个股票做到这样，我都服了自己了 --- 连着5次我需要钱时它涨，有零钱要存时它跌，都不是刻意的，真想把重仓建在它上面。MGM现在是我的心痛，下水很深，难道没缘？第一笔的day trade 成了呀！Patience！

 

[加京游子]

这周回顾

An-ER heavy week and thus the hectic posting, 因为操作失误，让纸上的盈利跑了大部分，虽然没赚到大钱但严格按照计划行事，这是对的，必须照办，不能以一个礼拜的结果论对错！下礼拜ELN出ER，再下礼拜MGM出ER，整个夏天没得空闲，但必须苦中作乐、忙里偷闲，给自己创造放松的机会，神经太紧张了。

Rome isn't built in a day. 我过去的两次灭顶之灾都是因为急功近利的浮躁心理造成的。两次两年多的卧薪尝胆、苦思冥想，悟出来的道理很简单---一口饭是吃不出胖子来的，稳扎稳打，步步为营方为上策！以利养本，空手套白狼、没本赚大钱才是做股票的至高境界，努力吧！可惜这是在我交纳了昂贵的学费、痛定思痛之后才悟出来的，迟了4年。人要能先知先明多好呀---但那样就不是人了！ 过个好周末，该给自己放松放松了！

 

[wiiwii]

An-ER heavy week and thus the hectic posting, 因为操作失误，让纸上的盈利跑了大部分，虽然没赚到大钱但严格按照计划行事，这是对的，必须照办，不能以一个礼拜的结果论对错！下礼拜ELN出ER，再下礼拜MGM出ER，整个夏天没得空闲，但必须苦中作乐、忙里偷闲，给自己创造放松的机会，神经太紧张了。

Rome isn't built in a day. 我过去的两次灭顶之灾都是因为急功近利的浮躁心理造成的。两次两年多的卧薪尝胆、苦思冥想，悟出来的道理很简单---一口饭是吃不出胖子来的，稳扎稳打，步步为营方为上策！以利养本，空手套白狼、没本赚大钱才是做股票的至高境界，努力吧！可惜这是在我交纳了昂贵的学费、痛定思痛之后才悟出来的，迟了4年。人要能先知先明多好呀---但那样就不是人了！ 过个好周末，该给自己放松放松了！

俺做多年股票的经验是 1.设立止损位而且要坚决执行
2. 量力而为,也就是当你投资的钱都输光也照样可以生活
有的时候人算不如天算, 是你的就是你的,不是你的再拼也没用,一个字就是"命".
俺买了BAC和CITI ,当时觉的一共用了5万左右,就全输了, 虽然也心痛,可也不影响生活,而且那个价钱,再往下, 世界上很多人就不要活了. 有时候想,买股票就这么回事情,要么涨要么跌,帐上的赢利或者损失,其实就是数字.

中国的股票那,能不碰就尽量不碰,都是垃圾,长线投资就是死路一条. 当然在那个流氓的市场,狂捞或者抢钱的机会也不少, 靠啥呢? 消息.
我在中国市场有1.5M 左右的RMB,随时准备捞一票,也随时准备出来换成加元.
现在呢,有200K 的000921 , 星期五又买了100K 的000890 因为本来想抢000921,但是它冲上去了,只抢了100K.

希望大家都赚钱,而且是赚好多钱,特别是加京游子,早日发达啊, 本来不太在这个版发言,被你购赢的也跳出来了, 你的日志写的很好啊,而且欣赏你的思路和决心.

 

[加京游子]

俺做多年股票的经验是 1.设立止损位而且要坚决执行
2. 量力而为,也就是当你投资的钱都输光也照样可以生活
有的时候人算不如天算, 是你的就是你的,不是你的再拼也没用,一个字就是"命".
俺买了BAC和CITI ,当时觉的一共用了5万左右,就全输了, 虽然也心痛,可也不影响生活,而且那个价钱,再往下, 世界上很多人就不要活了. 有时候想,买股票就这么回事情,要么涨要么跌,帐上的赢利或者损失,其实就是数字.

中国的股票那,能不碰就尽量不碰,都是垃圾,长线投资就是死路一条. 当然在那个流氓的市场,狂捞或者抢钱的机会也不少, 靠啥呢? 消息.
我在中国市场有1.5M 左右的RMB,随时准备捞一票,也随时准备出来换成加元.
现在呢,有200K 的000921 , 星期五又买了100K 的000890 因为本来想抢000921,但是它冲上去了,只抢了100K.

希望大家都赚钱,而且是赚好多钱,特别是加京游子,早日发达啊, 本来不太在这个版发言,被你购赢的也跳出来了, 你的日志写的很好啊,而且欣赏你的思路和决心.

谢谢你的美好祝愿！我呀，是穷则思变，也是命苦找累。地没买、房没建，跑车、吉普车都还在车行里，摩托艇也还在梦中，还想早几年退休，靠什么呢？有那点工资，虽然不会饿肚子，但要做成这些事是差得太远了。又没别的本事可以经营什么副业，正好自己又认为是那块料，就这么死不改悔地又踏上了Wall Street的征程。多少朋友熟人都劝过我，有了那两次灭顶之灾，工作又稳定，工资也不菲，算了，别再跟华尔街较劲了，安安稳稳过日子吧。咳，人的命呀就是没办法。我何尝不想不再给自己找累呀？可我知道自己就是苦命人，有安稳也没福享，生来就是受累的样。

很感谢你在这里分享你成功的经验，我有的只是失败的教训。但我前边已经讲过，我个人认为股票交易是极端个人的行为。情况不同，对问题的判断不同，财力不同，交易的目的不同，对风险的承受力不同，等等等等，所以不存在一个所谓的成功模式。一个人很成功的经验用到另一个人身上可能失灵甚至带来灾难。同样的一个股票，有人认为要涨所以买，有人认为要跌所以卖，公说公有理，婆说婆有理，这样才会有市场嘛，不然大家看法都一样，要嘛都不买，要嘛都不卖，哪来市场呢？

我是三进华尔街了，希望在不太久远的将来满载而归！

 

[加京游子]

A tech-ER-heavy week ahead

Here is the schedule:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Big-t...55.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

I don't have any tech stocks in my holdings but how the overall market performs can still affect my broker account balances. For my long-term positions, short-term fluctuations are meaningless but I have some short-term calls too and here is to hope for a good week ahead.

 

[加京游子]

CIT rescued

Board has approved creditors' financing package. Futures turned from mild red to solid green on this news. This should take some short-term worries off the market.

Signing off

 

[加京游子]

Closed my BAC 15 August calls position today with what was left as a tiny profit

It appeared to be a Q1ER repeat for BAC today. In anticipating this and guarding against it, I unloaded 3/5 last Wednesday, which turned out to be great exit points. Oh well, that is MR. Market with highly unpreditable characters.

My LEAP calls took a huge bite too. If it was not for ELN and DVAX, my account balance would have sunk with a colossal proportion. While, MGM had a fine day too, my Jan. 2010 still haven't made any move, pretty depressing.

Three big runners under my watch but I own none: 1) HGSI --- watch it for over 1/2 a year now, never get my hands with it because I felt I haven't done enough research about the drug and its market potentials. No regret! 2) CIT --- thinking about getting in at 0.4 for a gamble of no Chapter 11 filing but hesitated because the risk was so seemingly imminent, could not afford to lose all again. No regret. 3) LVS --- this is a pain. Watched MGM and LVS rising and rising in tendum during the last wave. Debated if to split between the two or concentrating on MGM at entry. Chose the latter and missed the boat. Oh well, a right or wrong decision can only be judged after the fact. Let it go and wait patiently for MGM's overdue big move.

On the data front, the Conference Board reported LEI, leading economic indicators which measure economic activities within the forthcoming 6 months, increasing more than expected. This is the 3rd consecutive rise. While rising LEI is widely perceived to suggest increasing economic activities, will the stock markets follow closely? It is everybody's guess. Personally, I am staying long.

 

[加京游子]

Going all in today

Re-opened VBAAD today, significantly increasing my stake in BAC by a combination of using up cash reserve and tapping into DVAX and ELNHH. Probably a stupid move but a plunger just could not resist the temptation of loading up more BAC around 12. All signs are pointing to a fall economic turnaround and thus a forceful bull run ahead. Of all the 5 major segments of BAC, the only non-performing/loss-causing one is the traditional credit-card and loan exposure, which is expected to turnaround with macroeconomic improvements. When that happens, loss reserves that have been built up will become writeups and profits, earnings and hence EPS be normalized. With this addition and possibly more down the road, I don't even need BAC to reach 40 to make a millon off it.

Need a 2-point run from MGM to get off and reload DNDN. Of all the 3 casina stocks under watch (WYNN, LVS and MGM), I chose the wrong horse to ride bacasue of the expected CC grand opening towards year's end. WYNN and LVS came up with IPO in HK news after I was fully loaded with MGM. Shit! But Mr. Market is full of the unexpected and unexpectable. I am sticking with MGM and pretty confident this dog will sooner or later catch up. Pray for me, folks!

Of all the biotech hard-running horses under watch---DNDN, CTIC, SPPI, HEB, MAPP, OGXI, NDVA, HGSI and BRCX, I only caught DNDN. I had BCRX but let it go for a huge loss, sigh. On well, that is Mr. Market, full of the unexpected and unexpectable. I simply can't be everywhere. Will reload DNDN big time and add DVAX when I can.

In order of weights for long-term holdings, here is my wish list: BAC/DNDN, ELN, MGM, DVAX. Need to find one tech to make my list of six. I would greatly appreciate if someone may point the direction. Also, I need 1-2 TXS stocks for my TFSA---highly inconvenient for the TFSA to own US-traded stocks because of CRA's regulations.

I shall remain dormant until further transactions---the only remaining trading options are now ELNHH, can I get a couple of points run please!

p.s. A note to anyone thinking about owning MGM Jan. 2010 options at this strike: As of today's close, I own close to 1/2 of the OI, of which the majority was acguired at 0.2. Once I decide to unload and I will do that without any advance warning, this segment of the option market may be flooded with my sell orders and the price movements may be depressed for days. I don't want to front run anyone. Be careful with your money.

 

[加京游子]

What an enormous emotional torture today!

Being tempted by that BIIB reported over 25% growth of Tysabri sales over the same quarter last year, I sold some DVAX to buy ELNHH last week and by BAC's pps around 12, I sold some more DVAX to re-open VBAAD yesterday. As it turned out today that I swapped a big bull for dogs. DVAX today closed at the HOD of 1.79 for a gain of 24% with very healthy volume. Being compounded by the fact that I held on to BYOYO and ELNHH for one day too long and let sizable profits slip away, I was enormously tortuned emotionally today. Three lousy trades in a row, really feeling shitty! The only cold comfort is that I keep 4/5 DVAX. Very pricey lessons:

1) Always maintain some cash reserve as the market is full of unexpected opportunities such that when opportunities present themselves, one is not forced to swap. Sell when Mr. Market sends selling signals. But when Mr. Market are sending buying signals and I sell in order to buy other seemingly good opportunities, they are, more often than not, bad moves. That was exactly what happened to my selling DVAX last week and yesterday --- Mr. Market has been sending clear buying signals for almost a week (baby steps in price rises with increasing volume).

2) Don't attempt to time the market. I was thinking about making some with BYOYO and ELNHH and then go back to add more DVAX. As experience has repeated itself time and again, Mr. market doesn't listen to my timing. A long-term investor should not attempt to time the market at all.

3) Bite only as much as one can chew. These bad trades once again prove that I was trying to do too much again. Have to stop this.

4) Don't let emotions cloud clearing thinking/moves. I had to pinch myself very hard not to take profits off DVAX towards the end of the session today. Why the breakout today? Because of speculation of news forthcoming or news leaking? I have no answer. Will the pps retrace if news will not be released within the next day or two? My answer is yes, after seeing many round trips this year. Yet, after seeing what news did to a good number of biotechs this year (200-400% gains over night), my mind was set not to take profits in the cents at the expense of potential dollars-gains. I have no idea whatsoever regarding how DVAX will move tomorrow, Friday, or next week but I firmly held ground today. Win or lose, I stayed with my conviction and that is the way to proceed.

Now, a glass of cognac to let the failed tradings in the past few days get out of my tired mind.