精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

My take on AMLN pps movement upon the FDA's ruling

What follows is what I posted in the Yahoo Finance AMLN message board.

It has been a long ride for all one-directional parties, long or short. I expect tomorrow to be judgement day, all speculations will be put to rest. My position is a strangle at 25 calls and 17.5 puts.

Here is my take on the pps movement: 30 if full approval; 10 if delayed, conditional approval or rejection (highly unlikely). Given the CMC deficiencies, I am leaning towards delayed/conditional approval unless the deficiencies have been fixed to the FDA's satisfaction prior to last Friday (highly unlikely too).

Get good sleep and wake up to news tomorrow, folks! Either way, it is not the end of the world --- yours truly rode through ELN and DNDN as a one-directional long and survive to this day. Don't lose any sleep over a decision that you and I have no control over and are not privy to. We will get to see whatever is due.

 

[加京游子]

Nothing else to do and can't go to sleep, let me spit this out

DNDN, LVS, MGM, BAC: no need to pay attention in the near future

AMLN: 10-30, depends on the direction of the FDA ruling, as soon as tomorrow

ITMN: back down to 12-15 by May 4

MDVN: back up to 18-20 following tomorrow's ER and CC

AIG: back down to 23-25 before April OE. Given the worsening fundamentals, touching below 20 is a real possibility

Game plan: add ITMN and AIG puts as soon as the market opens tomorrow

 

[加京游子]

AMLN PR out

It received a complete response letter from the FDA (delayed approval). But no further trial is requested and no CMC issues raised (December CMC issues all addressed). Rather, the CR letter is related to labelling and Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) and clarification of existing manufacturing processes. No idea how the market will react to such a not-so-negative CR letter. Given what I have witnessed with regards to market reactions to CR letters like this before, AMLN may not move as big at all as I have speculated and my strangle may not be profitable. It is ilkely I will lose on both ends (my break even point is 14.8 or 26.6). Early PM reaction is rather positive. Can a mild short squeeze get my position to be profitable? We shall see.

It is surely going to be volatile for the next few days. I am not a good fast-move trader and will stay away from the actions until stabilization.

 

[nepean_01]

Berkowitz在接受電話采訪時表示，他持有1300萬AIG的股份

據Bloomberg報道，Fairholme的Berkowitz在接受電話采訪時表示，他持有美國國際集團American Intl(AIG)1300萬的股份。
Be careful on shorting!!! Probably, not a good time to short it.:flaming:

 

[加京游子]

據Bloomberg報道，Fairholme的Berkowitz在接受電話采訪時表示，他持有美國國際集團American Intl(AIG)1300萬的股份。
Be careful on shorting!!! Probably, not a good time to short it.:flaming:

Thank you very much for sharing this info. That was exactly the cause of today's sudden surge at 2:15pm. I have left myself enough time for the puts to work themselve out. I view this sudden pop as another false rally. Too bad I was not able to put this pop --- it happened after I have added.

If it were John Paulson, I would think twice. I don't know who this guy is and don't really care. Give me another chance, I will definitely add to my puts collection. It is fun to play with house money and I think I have done my homework regarding AIG.

 

[加京游子]

Very tough day

Took a heavy beating nearly everywhere. ITMN and AIG took me completely by surprise, sudden surge right after I added puts. Did not get good entries today but I have left sufficient time for them to work themselves out. My DD remains diligent after my acquisitions, especially the first few days.

 

[nepean_01]

Medivation發布4季度業績- ER Missed -0.19美元

Medivation(MDVN)發布了第四季度（十二月份）的業績報告： 第四季度每股虧損0.78美元，比市場預期的每股虧損0.59美元還低0.19美元。

 

[nepean_01]

John Paulson bought a lot C.

John Paulson bought a lot C.

 

[nepean_01]

John Paulson繼續增持了C, 新買了JPM和WFC.

John Paulson，截止去年年底的變化，John Paulson繼續增持了，C,新買了JPM和WFC.

 

[nepean_01]

華爾街大亨雲集Manhattan,準備做空歐元，其中包括John Paulson, Soros, SAC Capital, Greenlight Capital。

 

[nepean_01]

SQNM is down 20% after bad ER.

 

[lazycatcat]

Good to see so many postings today ...

The option pricing of AMLN indicated mild volatility (in bio field) last week and it turned out to be that way. ITMN's option was priced very very wildly before the announcement. Some people seem to know something about AMLN but not much on ITMN.

ITMN's July option seems to be priced reasonably. So May option may be the same. We will see next week.

 

[smoker]

Medivation(MDVN)發布了第四季度（十二月份）的業績報告： 第四季度每股虧損0.78美元，比市場預期的每股虧損0.59美元還低0.19美元。

Thank you very much again for sharing this. For development-stage pre-earnings bios, ER is meaningless by and in itself. What matters is
updates and guidance. In the case of MDVN, the Co is still performing data analysis pertaining to the failed trial. I was expecting a guidance
but did not get it in the ER and CC. The cash was obtained from non-refundable partnership fees. So, the Co is in no need for a secondary
offering to raise working capital.

ITMN is really a wild card. I think I have done my homework but I could be wrong. The two trials yielded conflicting results. It doesn't even have a manufacturing plant to begin with. Product time line and pricing are still up in the air in case of a full approval. For those who believe in insiders'
trading, insiders sold a lot of options prior to the AC. I am very much surprised that there hasn't been a secondary offer announcement yet. I am giving it more time.

 

[加京游子]

This is the weirdest thing I have ever seen here. My post this morning becomes that of "smoker"!

Thank you very much again for sharing this. For development-stage pre-earnings bios, ER is meaningless by and in itself. What matters is
updates and guidance. In the case of MDVN, the Co is still performing data analysis pertaining to the failed trial. I was expecting a guidance
but did not get it in the ER and CC. The cash was obtained from non-refundable partnership fees. So, the Co is in no need for a secondary
offering to raise working capital.

ITMN is really a wild card. I think I have done my homework but I could be wrong. The two trials yielded conflicting results. It doesn't even have a manufacturing plant to begin with. Product time line and pricing are still up in the air in case of a full approval. For those who believe in insiders'
trading, insiders sold a lot of options prior to the AC. I am very much surprised that there hasn't been a secondary offer announcement yet. I am giving it more time.

 

[加京游子]

This is the day more like it!

Most of my positions moved in the right direction as expected, a sigh of releif indeed!

I took the chance to swap my DNDN Jan. 2010 calls for May calls, somewhat increasing the number of shares under my effective control at no extra costs. I bought the minute I sold, paying about 20 cents per contract more than necessary but I did not want to miss any run and did not want to wait even a minute. I sold at the bid and bought at the ask in real time --- always my practice.