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精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
- 开始时间
Wynn from 15 to 70 in a matter of a few months
I never owned Wynn. Can LVS pull off what Wynn performed last year? I have no clue whatsoever. The shares have been diluted about 40% due to capital needs over the last year. What I do know is that this is one of the two 1-year 10 baggers that I owned and I did not let go (the other being DNDN). Further, its fundamentals are a lot stronger than Wynn's (Macau casinos, Singapore Marina Bay Sands to be opened in April, Macau Lots 5 and 6 to be constructed). At some point, I will exercise my options for a few thousand shares and hold until the next business cyle peak. Back to 150? With the dilution, it is doubtful. I will be very happy to take 1/2 of the peak pps in a few years. But with MBS and Lots 5 and 6, anything is possible in the market. SA did not become a multi-billionaire from a taxi driver's son for no reason.
MGM made me a lot more money than LVS due to pure luck. It is definitely outrageously undervalued now that BK is no longer a going concern. But its concentration in Las Vegas may prove to be relying on the US economy too much. Should CC perform, sky is the limit for MGM. I made handsome profits with DNDN, MGM, LVS and BAC last year but burned the profits on SVA and others, how sad! I continue to burn my profits with new ventures and there is no solution to this problem at the moment.
Let me throw out three sayings in investment/gambling: Don't sell/short on rallies --- Jesse Livermore; Never leave a winning table --- Ed Bradley; Don't bet against the house --- yours truly
I never owned Wynn. Can LVS pull off what Wynn performed last year? I have no clue whatsoever. The shares have been diluted about 40% due to capital needs over the last year. What I do know is that this is one of the two 1-year 10 baggers that I owned and I did not let go (the other being DNDN). Further, its fundamentals are a lot stronger than Wynn's (Macau casinos, Singapore Marina Bay Sands to be opened in April, Macau Lots 5 and 6 to be constructed). At some point, I will exercise my options for a few thousand shares and hold until the next business cyle peak. Back to 150? With the dilution, it is doubtful. I will be very happy to take 1/2 of the peak pps in a few years. But with MBS and Lots 5 and 6, anything is possible in the market. SA did not become a multi-billionaire from a taxi driver's son for no reason.
MGM made me a lot more money than LVS due to pure luck. It is definitely outrageously undervalued now that BK is no longer a going concern. But its concentration in Las Vegas may prove to be relying on the US economy too much. Should CC perform, sky is the limit for MGM. I made handsome profits with DNDN, MGM, LVS and BAC last year but burned the profits on SVA and others, how sad! I continue to burn my profits with new ventures and there is no solution to this problem at the moment.
Let me throw out three sayings in investment/gambling: Don't sell/short on rallies --- Jesse Livermore; Never leave a winning table --- Ed Bradley; Don't bet against the house --- yours truly
lazycatcat
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DNDN
Call spread of DNDN of May is quite interesting. $40 call can be bought for 4.65 and $50 call can be sold for 1.80, with 2.85 spread. So, one can use 2.85 to bet for 10 potential gain. $35 and $25 put spread is 3.45.
I don't mean to be able to read tea leaves. However, this seems to indicate DNDN is properly valued at current level - proper based on all available information and market consensus, of course. These can change at any instants.
A downward adjustment would be nice at this point. If current trend continues, it definitely indicates a revaluation of risk by Mr. Market and this could get stronger with Q1 positive earnings.
Call spread of DNDN of May is quite interesting. $40 call can be bought for 4.65 and $50 call can be sold for 1.80, with 2.85 spread. So, one can use 2.85 to bet for 10 potential gain. $35 and $25 put spread is 3.45.
I don't mean to be able to read tea leaves. However, this seems to indicate DNDN is properly valued at current level - proper based on all available information and market consensus, of course. These can change at any instants.
A downward adjustment would be nice at this point. If current trend continues, it definitely indicates a revaluation of risk by Mr. Market and this could get stronger with Q1 positive earnings.
Call spread of DNDN of May is quite interesting. $40 call can be bought for 4.65 and $50 call can be sold for 1.80, with 2.85 spread. So, one can use 2.85 to bet for 10 potential gain. $35 and $25 put spread is 3.45.
I don't mean to be able to read tea leaves. However, this seems to indicate DNDN is properly valued at current level - proper based on all available information and market consensus, of course. These can change at any instants.
A downward adjustment would be nice at this point. If current trend continues, it definitely indicates a revaluation of risk by Mr. Market and this could get stronger with Q1 positive earnings.
Any TA is moot at this conjuncture! I will go out of the limb and give you my wild speculation: opens at 60 upon full approval annoucement and settles around 40 in a few days. I am giving non-approval/delayed approval a 1% probability but this has to be guarded against the backdrop of my losing millions of dollars in one day, May 10, 2007. I acted according to my speculations, not scientific nor anything else but gutfeelings. Any trader will have a window of a few days to position him/herself. When the ROW partnership is announced, game is over for shorts/put owners. I have posted my DNDN roadmap earlier and am repositioning towards that expectations.
I have some dry power ready to go in should a bear raid take place again but don't count on that for a first entry. Today has been a great buying opportunity and I don't care if I am in water for 5%, 10% or 20% for an entry today. I bought off what I could at the ask today. I lost everything I bet on AMLN yesterday. I took a large loss today with MDVN for my March calls. It takes money to make money. My loss was made up by LVS and MGM.
You are a respected balanced investor. Bio tech is not your strong suit. Let me wish you all the very best with whatever you wish to do!
I would sell May 35 puts for a cost base of around 30 assuming the shares are put to me if my capital base was big enough. I view this transaction a near free cash. Glad that my market participation doesn't depend on DNDN performance alone any longer.
Let me play the role of a devil advocate --- day traders don't read
Don't chase any hot stock if you were not in earlier with a paper profit to be burned. The risk is getting increasingly bigger as the pps rises. I missed many many good runs by not chasing. But I do enter/add when pivotal points are broken. Let me use two of my holders to illustrate. 1) I watched AIG roses from 24 to 35 in a few days. 30 was the point to enter long but I failed. I watched it exploding to 38, kept watching and entered my first puts when it dropped to 34.98. I added my puts when it was below 34. Human manipulations do not scare me one bit, be that a legal rumour that caused the pps to run up 6 points in 20 minutes or a big holder who claimed his ownership on CNBC that caused the pps to gain 2 points in 15 minutes. I will add if and when AIG breaks below 30. 2) I sold LVS last week --- the profits were too big not to take and the options were too close to OE but at the same time, I did not want to leave the winning table, so I rolled some profits into an April calls position. It dropped and dropped until yesterday when I felt the breaking was unusual --- a bear trap, my mind clearly told me so. I told a friend I would add but my time and hands were tied up with my day job and bio plays. I won't touch LVS unless it crosses the 20.73 52-wk high. Where does all of this come from? A born natural --- 趁热打铁和痛打落水狗, 两句古语在股市的应用! All of these have to be based on the understanding of fundamentals. I am a very lousy chart reader and I refuse to read charts quit some time ago after a few attempts that screwed up my positions big time. Ride the trend but be mindful of one day reversal. Trade with your own money.
Don't chase any hot stock if you were not in earlier with a paper profit to be burned. The risk is getting increasingly bigger as the pps rises. I missed many many good runs by not chasing. But I do enter/add when pivotal points are broken. Let me use two of my holders to illustrate. 1) I watched AIG roses from 24 to 35 in a few days. 30 was the point to enter long but I failed. I watched it exploding to 38, kept watching and entered my first puts when it dropped to 34.98. I added my puts when it was below 34. Human manipulations do not scare me one bit, be that a legal rumour that caused the pps to run up 6 points in 20 minutes or a big holder who claimed his ownership on CNBC that caused the pps to gain 2 points in 15 minutes. I will add if and when AIG breaks below 30. 2) I sold LVS last week --- the profits were too big not to take and the options were too close to OE but at the same time, I did not want to leave the winning table, so I rolled some profits into an April calls position. It dropped and dropped until yesterday when I felt the breaking was unusual --- a bear trap, my mind clearly told me so. I told a friend I would add but my time and hands were tied up with my day job and bio plays. I won't touch LVS unless it crosses the 20.73 52-wk high. Where does all of this come from? A born natural --- 趁热打铁和痛打落水狗, 两句古语在股市的应用! All of these have to be based on the understanding of fundamentals. I am a very lousy chart reader and I refuse to read charts quit some time ago after a few attempts that screwed up my positions big time. Ride the trend but be mindful of one day reversal. Trade with your own money.
Bad day again
My account took another hard hit today. All my calls positions bulls felt into asleep or were regrouping while my two fundamentally-weak puts positions bulls took charge riding on the back of a good market day. While the former was expected, the latter took me by surprise again. Although remaining as convinced as ever, I need to vent. I am surprised more often than not, a very good friend told me, because I think and anticipate too much. To quote Jessy Livermore, "my sitting makes a lot more money than my thinking". I think I should stop thinking but 命中注定苦命人, I can't stop thinking awake.
Don't bet against the house, friends, shorting LVS/MGM is shorting SA/KK, ranking among the world's richest men from not-so-rich families. They did not make their fortunes by pure luck. If you day trade, I congratulate you for your profits. But please don't hold your short positions too long. You may wake up to very unpleasant surprises any morning. Short squeezes can be very painful to watch for short sellers. These casinos are already heavily shorted. It is very risky to be retail shorts. If you are confident about your decision, why not buy puts? They are the same thing except some extra commissions.
Disclaimer: the marketplace is for everybody to participate, long or short. I have no biase towards one way or another. I play both sides of the fence myself. The casinos stocks are very volatile. Margin calls are not fun to deal with at all. Trade with caution and protect your money. Best of lucks!
Oureal: if you are reading this thread, what follows is a friendly reminder specially for you from a countryman, I don't know who you are and I can't care less about your profits or losses but as a kindly-hearted man, I want to remind you: judging by your shorting of oil, C and MGM, you may be penny smart but I have a feeling that you are not street savvy. Granted, I could be totally wrong. Please ignore my opinion if you think I am wrong. If you are a professional, enjoy your day-trading profits and I congratulate you sincerely. Playing stocks is my side kick, more often than not, I can't watch Mr. Market for days. Best of luck!
My account took another hard hit today. All my calls positions bulls felt into asleep or were regrouping while my two fundamentally-weak puts positions bulls took charge riding on the back of a good market day. While the former was expected, the latter took me by surprise again. Although remaining as convinced as ever, I need to vent. I am surprised more often than not, a very good friend told me, because I think and anticipate too much. To quote Jessy Livermore, "my sitting makes a lot more money than my thinking". I think I should stop thinking but 命中注定苦命人, I can't stop thinking awake.
Don't bet against the house, friends, shorting LVS/MGM is shorting SA/KK, ranking among the world's richest men from not-so-rich families. They did not make their fortunes by pure luck. If you day trade, I congratulate you for your profits. But please don't hold your short positions too long. You may wake up to very unpleasant surprises any morning. Short squeezes can be very painful to watch for short sellers. These casinos are already heavily shorted. It is very risky to be retail shorts. If you are confident about your decision, why not buy puts? They are the same thing except some extra commissions.
Disclaimer: the marketplace is for everybody to participate, long or short. I have no biase towards one way or another. I play both sides of the fence myself. The casinos stocks are very volatile. Margin calls are not fun to deal with at all. Trade with caution and protect your money. Best of lucks!
Oureal: if you are reading this thread, what follows is a friendly reminder specially for you from a countryman, I don't know who you are and I can't care less about your profits or losses but as a kindly-hearted man, I want to remind you: judging by your shorting of oil, C and MGM, you may be penny smart but I have a feeling that you are not street savvy. Granted, I could be totally wrong. Please ignore my opinion if you think I am wrong. If you are a professional, enjoy your day-trading profits and I congratulate you sincerely. Playing stocks is my side kick, more often than not, I can't watch Mr. Market for days. Best of luck!
lazycatcat
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Just curious, how do you short a stock like C ? Does the brokerage allow you to do that ? What is the cost - fully collateral for sure and then plus interest rate ?
I will never do shorting in this form but would rather buy puts. I think it is definitely crazy to short for anyone - professionals alike ...
I find an angle for DNDN and I will detail in an email. Not a very good or novel one but could be interesting ...
I will never do shorting in this form but would rather buy puts. I think it is definitely crazy to short for anyone - professionals alike ...
I find an angle for DNDN and I will detail in an email. Not a very good or novel one but could be interesting ...
Just curious, how do you short a stock like C ? Does the brokerage allow you to do that ? What is the cost - fully collateral for sure and then plus interest rate ?
I will never do shorting in this form but would rather buy puts. I think it is definitely crazy to short for anyone - professionals alike ...
I find an angle for DNDN and I will detail in an email. Not a very good or novel one but could be interesting ...
My broker doesn't allow me to short anything under 5. I don't short at all anyway --- the only stock I have ever shorted was ELN on the way down after the ICAT news, my beloved poor ELN, and I was very profitable, 23 - 8 in two days. Shorting C may be penny smart but IMO, is not street savvy.
Looking forward to your email!!!!!!!!!!!
lazycatcat
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Just sent you an email on DNDN. Comments are appreciated since you are the expert on this issue.
For shorting, can you borrow the stocks indefinitely and what is the price for borrowing (LIBO rate ?) ?
Just curious to know ...
For shorting, can you borrow the stocks indefinitely and what is the price for borrowing (LIBO rate ?) ?
Just curious to know ...
Just sent you an email on DNDN. Comments are appreciated since you are the expert on this issue.
For shorting, can you borrow the stocks indefinitely and what is the price for borrowing (LIBO rate ?) ?
Just curious to know ...
Got your email, thanks! And have replied. I am no expert whatsoever. Regarding DNDN, my positions are essentially cost free (house money). I don't want to make pennies risking losing potentials of dollars with free floaters. I am a greedy side-kick retail participant. I would play differently if I would be able to watch Mr. Market from open to close, catching the little swings. But I can't. So, I have to look at the big picture.
This is one of the few stocks I feel I can win with (after a devastating wipe out) and I need big winnings to make up for my losses elsewhere. All my newly opened positions are under water, some very deeply. I have already taken big losses with MDVN and AMLN. Hindsight is always 20-20. I was debating between MDVN and XNPT for a recovery play. I chose MDVN, the wrong horse to ride. New companies, insufficient DD.
Keeping winners and cutting out losers are the way I am practising myself now. There is always something new in Mr. Market (the unexpected). Feel sorry for myself that I have to pay my bills with my day job.
I only shorted once and will never do that again (I buy puts). Have no idea of borrowing costs.
祝贺LVS/MGM的空军们！
你们都是神！
我除了哭还能有什么别的话可说呢？多仓里关着两大熊和四小熊而空仓里却藏着两大牛，除了阿Q还能怎样？ --- "Tomorrow is another day" and hopefully it is brand new (No, OE tomorrow, any turning of tide will probably have to come next Monday).
关心我的朋友们：不用担心，我不会想不开的，好好睡个觉就好了。玩股市总得信点什么，我信心依然。
谁赚了大钱，请我吃顿好饭吧，我可是要揭不开锅了，哈哈！
Cat：resent my email reply. Please check.
你们都是神！
我除了哭还能有什么别的话可说呢？多仓里关着两大熊和四小熊而空仓里却藏着两大牛，除了阿Q还能怎样？ --- "Tomorrow is another day" and hopefully it is brand new (No, OE tomorrow, any turning of tide will probably have to come next Monday).
关心我的朋友们：不用担心，我不会想不开的，好好睡个觉就好了。玩股市总得信点什么，我信心依然。
谁赚了大钱，请我吃顿好饭吧，我可是要揭不开锅了，哈哈！
Cat：resent my email reply. Please check.
OE manipulation of DNDN pps to the degree of perfection!
I gave out DNDN under 20 in this thread. I held my core holding from 2.79 and traded via options occasionally, making my current position at negative cost. It is entering the final phase of the game (war) now, fierce battles on and ahead. I may lose a battle here and there but I am convinced I will come out ahead of the war in the end. If you are interested in this security, study last week's tradings, especially the close on Friday amidst the now-infamous butterfly plays last Thursday and early Friday morning that got publisized all over the map and form your own opinion/strategy/position. All I can say about the butterfly plays is that these boys are good at what they do. At this stage of the game, I won't say anything further but to state that I have taken my full position, ready for the battles ahead and the arrival of May Day. I may rejig my position according to speculation anytime between now and May Day when I feel something unusual.
Protect your money and keep it in the left pocket!
I gave out DNDN under 20 in this thread. I held my core holding from 2.79 and traded via options occasionally, making my current position at negative cost. It is entering the final phase of the game (war) now, fierce battles on and ahead. I may lose a battle here and there but I am convinced I will come out ahead of the war in the end. If you are interested in this security, study last week's tradings, especially the close on Friday amidst the now-infamous butterfly plays last Thursday and early Friday morning that got publisized all over the map and form your own opinion/strategy/position. All I can say about the butterfly plays is that these boys are good at what they do. At this stage of the game, I won't say anything further but to state that I have taken my full position, ready for the battles ahead and the arrival of May Day. I may rejig my position according to speculation anytime between now and May Day when I feel something unusual.
Protect your money and keep it in the left pocket!
