精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

Not bad, not bad at all indeed

Given MGM's pre-announced loss because of CC charges and CNBC Fast Money declared a war on LVS last night, AH trading yesterday and early PM trading today did not look that bad at all. After the surge in recent weeks, it is natural and healthy to give some back. I thought those Fast Money crooks would do a lot more damage. They did not even dare to mention that LVS' game changer is set for soft opening very soon and grand opening in a couple of months. These crooks and their followers will be the explosive fuel to an open fire when great news hits. That is not an issue of if but when. My May calls will take some hit but they are at no cost. I will add some if manipulators are to create more buying opportunities.

A comprehensive analysis on LVS by an amatuer can be found here.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/198850-las-vegas-sands-set-to-soar?source=yahoo

 

[wiiwii]

good job! I guess you really could retire early this time

 

[加京游子]

good job! I guess you really could retire early this time

Early retirement? That remains an ever-lasting dream yet to come true! The FDA screwed me up big time back in May 2007 and the rest is hisotry. I have way passed the stage of being hurt, raged and self-pity. That devastation remains a constant and life-long reminder of what can happen going forward in the market and in life. That time, I had my resignation letter all typed up in anticipation of an approval. With my pitiful stake in the market now, early retirement is not in the card in the foreseeable future! I really wish I did not burn my huge profits from BAC, DNDN, MGM and DVAX last year on SVA, ARNA and later on on BAC and MGM. Another devastating mistake I made last year was to sell my DNDN May calls for shares. Sigh, I should have put those profits to work with DNDN. On top of all of these, I let go three 10-20 baggers in HIG, GNW and UAUA. Too much to learn. It is all water under the bridge now and I am starting from scratch. Hopefully, I will learn from constant reflection. I will have some serious changes to have some serious fun in the market if I am right, though, and am fully prepared to live in the doghouse for years if I am wrong, OTOH.

Are you still holding your BAC and C? Both have been performing quite well lately. If memory serves me correctly, you had 40 and 10 as your TP. I am very confident you will get both (you had 10K each). It may mot happen this year and will surely test your patience but you will get there. I like C a lot and the only thing that keeps me away from it is the US stake. I will be in C the moment MS PRs that it has completely sold out of the US stake. Another reason why I am not in C is because of competing use of limited resources.

BAC 1QER is out tomorrow. Since JPM did well with their investment banking and trading, I expect BAC to do even better with Merrill and credit card improvement. I bought a truckload of May 21 calls at 10 cents a couple of weeks ago when it looked wanting to break the 19.1 half a year top. Should have added yesterday the moment it crossed 19.1 at .15 but failed to do so because of work. I aggresively averaged up today during lunch hour (the only time I can take a peek at the market), bringing my cost base to about 15 cents now. Let's see what BAC does tomorrow with the ER. It is a brand new BAC now, new CEO, new CFO, and new trading channel.

 

[加京游子]

Anybody knows Lucy Lu?

She is the Citi analyst who downgraded DNDN yesterday. I read from her report that she is a green hand in biotech in general and DNDN in particular. I also got the impression that her downgrade was the work/order from her boss/clients. If my feelings are true, what a pitiful job to have! She is putting her professional reputation on the line just days/weeks before the PDUFA date. If it turns out that she is right, she will be celebrated as a big name but to put a professional career on this is definitely not worthwhile. If you know her, tell her to contact me before she writes on DNDN next time.

 

[加京游子]

Congratulations, fellow BAC holders!

We beat street estimates by a wide margin on both the topline and the bottomline. This is simply marvelous. What is personally even more gratifying is that I correctly pinned down the two main positive contributors: Merrill and credit card improvements. As such, I added a significant number of calls yesterday, paying nearly 200% more than my original position's costs. Feeling very pleased to beat the game on the way to work. There will be profit takers but I am going to sit back and relax. It will take some time to see much higher pps as weak hands unload. There were quite a few times I was right but did not profit much. I want to be rewarded handsomely this time around for being right! Hold on tight to your chips. This baby is going higher. I have no TP in mind. All I am confident is that this is a huge beat and a run won't stall in one day or two barring the overall market nosediving. The tape will send me any danger signal.

 

[wiiwii]

Early retirement? That remains an ever-lasting dream yet to come true! The FDA screwed me up big time back in May 2007 and the rest is hisotry. I have way passed the stage of being hurt, raged and self-pity. That devastation remains a constant and life-long reminder of what can happen going forward in the market and in life. That time, I had my resignation letter all typed up in anticipation of an approval. With my pitiful stake in the market now, early retirement is not in the card in the foreseeable future! I really wish I did not burn my huge profits from BAC, DNDN, MGM and DVAX last year on SVA, ARNA and later on on BAC and MGM. Another devastating mistake I made last year was to sell my DNDN May calls for shares. Sigh, I should have put those profits to work with DNDN. On top of all of these, I let go three 10-20 baggers in HIG, GNW and UAUA. Too much to learn. It is all water under the bridge now and I am starting from scratch. Hopefully, I will learn from constant reflection. I will have some serious changes to have some serious fun in the market if I am right, though, and am fully prepared to live in the doghouse for years if I am wrong, OTOH.

Are you still holding your BAC and C? Both have been performing quite well lately. If memory serves me correctly, you had 40 and 10 as your TP. I am very confident you will get both (you had 10K each). It may mot happen this year and will surely test your patience but you will get there. I like C a lot and the only thing that keeps me away from it is the US stake. I will be in C the moment MS PRs that it has completely sold out of the US stake. Another reason why I am not in C is because of competing use of limited resources.

BAC 1QER is out tomorrow. Since JPM did well with their investment banking and trading, I expect BAC to do even better with Merrill and credit card improvement. I bought a truckload of May 21 calls at 10 cents a couple of weeks ago when it looked wanting to break the 19.1 half a year top. Should have added yesterday the moment it crossed 19.1 at .15 but failed to do so because of work. I aggresively averaged up today during lunch hour (the only time I can take a peek at the market), bringing my cost base to about 15 cents now. Let's see what BAC does tomorrow with the ER. It is a brand new BAC now, new CEO, new CFO, and new trading channel.

yeah, I still have BAC and C and I guess I will still keep them for a while.
I sold 2 properties in China recently and I will bring the money to Canada. I won't push them into the stock market, maybe real estate.
again my best wishes for you! Make big big money and post more stuff here!

 

[加京游子]

Wow, the SEC charged Goldman Sucks!

Finally, maybe a little long overdue justice for WS' most unethical and corrupted crooks! And I suspect this is only a tip of an iceberg. But this news broke at the most unopportune and unfortunate time as it ruined the monsterly great ER of BAC. Although John Paulson was not named in the charge, he was the designer of that deal. As such, all the securities in his holding (chiefly financials) took a very hard hit today undiscriminatively. Oh well, life in WS, huh? One never knows with certainty what will happen the next minute. I was really unprepared for this at all. Just chalk this up as another failed expectation. It shall all pass soon as it is GS specific. Nothing changes BAC's huge beats!

Have a nice weekend, everyone!

 

[加京游子]

More reflections on the SEC charge against GS

Let me spit them out in a quiet Saturday morning. All are one man's opinions.

1) The timing of the release is very suspect, which led me to the conclusion that the US/SEC has an agenda: 1) why otherwise break this news on an OE day? 2) Why otherwise break it after the market traded for over an hour? GS has been widely percepted as a crooked big house for a long time and the SEC must have been on this case for quite some time. It is simply no coincidence this news broke at the time of the day!

2) Market reacted to this news completely in the wrong way. In the crowded theatre, however, it only takes one shout of "fire" to get all rushing to the exit. And the end result goes without saying. Think for a moment and one gets to the realization that this is actually good news for the market after the dust settles. If one follows GS upgrades/downgrades sufficiently long, one would have been highly profitable to act in a contrarian way. The same can be said more or less about other big houses' calls. As a result of this news, I am expecting less influence these big houses' calls will yield on the market. The less influence these big houses have, the more stable the trading enviroment is for small players.

3) I have reserved some dry powder for possible manipulation in DNDN which did not materialize yesterday. After deeply reflecting on the news, I put the reserve to work with BAC in the dying minutes of the session, tripling down on my BAC stake. Let's see if my contrarian move pays off. Cigar, cognac and caviar if I am right; dog food otherwise.

 

[加京游子]

Shorting/putting GS, anyone?

I view what was revealed in the SEC charge last Friday as the tip of an iceberg. CDO deals, oil deals? In the US? In other countries? The list of suspicious deals goes on and on. I am buying way out of the money puts tomorrow at open. Too bad that I have used up my reserve and will have to sell some winners to do this. It is a golden opportunity to squeeze some gold out of Goldman and leave the sucks behind.

 

[加京游子]

Truly amazing that the GS hoopla lasted only one day!

As planned, I did get some way out of the money puts at open as a lottery ticket.

But this news did get BAC's monstrous 1QER deeply buried for two entire days. Let's see if the series of major upgrades will do BAC any good.

Credit Suisse raises target to $23;

Citi raises its price target on shares of BofA from $23 to $26, reiterates a Buy;

UBS raises target from $20 to $21, maintains Buy;

Oppenheimer raises target from $21 to $23, maintains Outperform;

KBW raises target from $19 to $22, maintains Outperform;

FBR Capital raises target from $20 to $22, maintains Outperform;

Stifel Nicolaus raises target from $22 to $24, maintains Buy;

RBC Capital raises target from $20 to $21, maintains Outperform;

JPMorgan Chase have upgraded their target on Bank of America Corp shares to 23.5;

Estimates higher at Barclays by a dollar to $21 following decent 1Q10 results. Credit outlook good. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates improved to $1.15 and $1.90, respectively. Equal Weight rating.

 

[wiiwii]

As planned, I did get some way out of the money puts at open as a lottery ticket.

But this news did get BAC's monstrous 1QER deeply buried for two entire days. Let's see if the series of major upgrades will do BAC any good.

Credit Suisse raises target to $23;

Citi raises its price target on shares of BofA from $23 to $26, reiterates a Buy;

UBS raises target from $20 to $21, maintains Buy;

Oppenheimer raises target from $21 to $23, maintains Outperform;

KBW raises target from $19 to $22, maintains Outperform;

FBR Capital raises target from $20 to $22, maintains Outperform;

Stifel Nicolaus raises target from $22 to $24, maintains Buy;

RBC Capital raises target from $20 to $21, maintains Outperform;

JPMorgan Chase have upgraded their target on Bank of America Corp shares to 23.5;

Estimates higher at Barclays by a dollar to $21 following decent 1Q10 results. Credit outlook good. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates improved to $1.15 and $1.90, respectively. Equal Weight rating.

 

[加京游子]

Dcth news out

Trial results meet/exceed pre-specified end points! PPS flying! Can my May 10 calls be a 10-bagger at open tomorrow?

It appears to be better than a 10-bagger based on AH trading. But I have to let the 7.5 puts expire worthless (just bought yesterday). I will be happy to settle for a net 10-bagger in about two months. Anything extra is gravy. Although not being my big horse, this will help tremendously.

Damn BAC --- my initial position was always in huge paper profits but I am always under water big time when I double or triple my initial position.

 

[加京游子]

Trial results meet/exceed pre-specified end points! PPS flying! Can my May 10 calls be a 10-bagger at open tomorrow?

It appears to be better than a 10-bagger based on AH trading. But I have to let the 7.5 puts expire worthless (just bought yesterday). I will be happy to settle for a net 10-bagger in about two months. Anything extra is gravy. Although not being my big horse, this will help tremendously.

Damn BAC --- my initial position was always in huge paper profits but I am always under water big time when I double or triple my initial position.

My calls look like a 15-20 bagger! Put a buy order in at 14.2 before going in for a shower. Just came out and checked. It was filled. I will sell my calls at open and keep the shares. Hope other bigger horses can do the same.

 

[wowers]

As planned, I did get some way out of the money puts at open as a lottery ticket.

But this news did get BAC's monstrous 1QER deeply buried for two entire days. Let's see if the series of major upgrades will do BAC any good.

Credit Suisse raises target to $23;

Citi raises its price target on shares of BofA from $23 to $26, reiterates a Buy;

UBS raises target from $20 to $21, maintains Buy;

Oppenheimer raises target from $21 to $23, maintains Outperform;

KBW raises target from $19 to $22, maintains Outperform;

FBR Capital raises target from $20 to $22, maintains Outperform;

Stifel Nicolaus raises target from $22 to $24, maintains Buy;

RBC Capital raises target from $20 to $21, maintains Outperform;

JPMorgan Chase have upgraded their target on Bank of America Corp shares to 23.5;

Estimates higher at Barclays by a dollar to $21 following decent 1Q10 results. Credit outlook good. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates improved to $1.15 and $1.90, respectively. Equal Weight rating.

Just wondering why there is no words about the US Treasury selling Citi; dig through Google search results and many online premium journals, such as WSJ and FT. I thought that the lockup period has passed.

 

[加京游子]

Just wondering why there is no words about the US Treasury selling Citi; dig through Google search results and many online premium journals, such as WSJ and FT. I thought that the lockup period has passed.

That beats me. If I am not mistaken, the lockup was until the end of last March according to the TARP payback agreement. The Treasury has authorized MS to handle the sale and the proposed sale doesn't have to be completed until the end of the year. Just for fun, I checked C's valuation the other night and at $5, C is not much undervalued relative to its peers. It is the most internationalized major bank and I like that aspect a lot but it has sold the money printing unit, Smith Barney. Until banks' earnings are normalized and there is a sectoral breakout, I don't see much more room for C to go much higher beyond $5. If it was not for the low pps, I would have shorted/put some upon the ER runup and explosion. All that said, sentiment is one of the key determinants of any pps, which I don't have a clue at all.

At any rate, banks are not what I intend to go deep. They are empires, too big for me to understand. I have BAC and that is about it for my bank holding. If I were late to the banking party, I would have probably let BAC go too. I still keep those 3.07 BAC shares while trading options, up some and down some. Overall, I haven't lost money with BAC (my 2.5K LEAP killed all my front-month options profits last year thanks to the damned NY AG and the Judge who killed the settlement. Combined, they have put BAC back about 1/2 year in the calender. For options, time is essense and when the momentum is killed, loss is the only exit). And when you have something good, you run with it, as they say. Best of lucks!

I like development-stage biotech the best for many reasons. I also like come-back stories conditional on that they are not BK.

p.s. As more and more developments are emerging re the SEC vs GS hoopla, I have sold my GS puts at a hefty loss. Haven't decided yet to call some GS or not as I am tied up with some big biotech plays. One deep regret is that I am too much distracted by breaking developments. As a moonlighter and there is only that much of a window in a day to take a peek at the market, WS participation is not easy.