精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽,成败得失笑谈中

I can't help congratulating you on DNDN. This is a break-through milestone in medical industry and probably marks the beginning of a stream of new drugs. The contribution to the welfare of human beings can't be measured in monetary terms.

Thank you very much! Provenge is for men, hopefully Nuevenge will be available for women in the next few years!
 
DNDN

Based on Reuters report, one treatment costs around $90,000 according to DNDN. This is a high price tag but is still within range of Herceptin/Avastins (for $70,000 per treatment). Only 2,000 people can be treated within next 12 months but sales will eventually reach between $1.2 B to $2.5 B based on company estimate.

A potential competitor is Bavarian Nordic with its late-stage medicine Prostvac. Not sure how it works.

Potential of Provenge for treating other cancers is probably not fully priced into current share price.

At $100 per share, DNDN will be worth $13 B. This should be achievable with a bit more encouraging news and potential strategic alliance. The special nature of Provenge probably equates DNDN to DNA and Amagen in that their patents are long-lived, unlike small molecule products in PFE etc's portfolio.

At current level, DNDN should be a very attractive acquisition target (based on my very amateurish understanding). Bio-based medicine is far more valuable than small molecule medicine to investors as there are no path for generics to enter the market even after patent expiration.

If the management is friendly to investors, DNDN at $10 B market cap is probably more reasonable. On the other hand, with everything in the bag, management may not want share price to rise too fast due to considerations like option granting etc.

In any case, DNDN is definitely worth following after this point ...
 
DNDN FDA Approval CC take-away messages

Just finish listening to the CC, what follows are highlights:

1) Cost of 93K per treatment (3 infusions)
2) Roughly about 2K patients will be treated within the first year of launch, product being produced in about 25% capacity out of the New Jersey plant
3) All 3 plants (NJ, Georgia and California) are expected to operate in full capacity by the middle of next year
4) No partnership, going solo for ROW (Rest of World)

Media headlines are flying around the globe. Impacts are still being digested. Trading was halted for a good part of the afternoon. I don't have a price target in the next few days except to expect extreme volatility. Any guessestimate of short-term pps is as good as any other. WS analysts have been wrong for so long. Media and medical gurus cannot even distinguish between mean and median survival benefits. I don't expect them to get the valuation right, period! What is so funny is that poor Lucy Lu who just days ago downgraded DNDN, saying that a price of 40 is priced to perfection, was among the first WS analysts to ask questions, what a joke!

As a side note, there were 13M shares shorted at the end of March; DNDN has a poison pill in place to prevent hostile take over, any hostile take over bid will start a bidding war, which can only add fuel to an open fire.
 
恭喜楼主!几年的执着有了好的回报!:)
 
Wynn 1QER good beat propels LVS and MGM to be on fire AH

Looking pretty good! These 3 top guns are in tandem!
 
恭喜楼主!几年的执着有了好的回报!:)

谢谢! 2007年的血本无归铭刻五腑、没齿难忘呀!今天的好消息不仅是金钱的回报,更是信念的胜利,我哭了好久 --- 3年的等待呀!我有工作,债可还股票照做可以等,但多少等待药的病人却不能等而成了冤鬼。我看了PR后为他们默哀了3分钟。这是人类的福音,几年后治乳腺癌、子宫癌的Nuevenge将试验成功,我预祝女人们的福音早日降临!
 
Another blatant highway robbery in bioland today!

It was DNDN April 28 last year. Exactly the same bear raid was repeated in POZN today. After market close, it was announced that the FDA has approved their drug and the stock was flying high.

Does anybody own POZN here? If you do, I hope your shares did not get stolen by WS thiefs and I congratulate you for holding on to a big winner. I don't own it. Just keep an eye on the FDA action watch.

It is Friday again and it was GS-related news that created yet another good buying opportunity again. I was a bull, going against the flow again today:

1) Bought back some of the LVS sold yesterday
2) Bought back some of the MGM sold yesterday
3) Added some APPY shares, harvesting a little stop loss order, and sold quite a few June 5 puts. APPY was rather unlucky today, secondary offering met a big down market plus the post by AF at Street.com (this guy is sued by GNBT).

To those of you who expressed goodwill on my DNDN ownership here or otherwise, let me say THANK-YOU again! FYI, I did not touch my DNDN shares/calls. The tape tells me this is not a sell-the-news situation.

Have a nice weekend, everyone, and best of lucks!
 
A reflection on my DNDN involvement to close out a hectic week

In the quietness of a Friday night, I am deeply in reflection on the proceedings of a hectic week, particularly on DNDN. From an investment perspective, I can't complain about DNDN's performance whatsoever but LVS has thus far printed me far more money on a percentage basis (on paper) simply because I play front-month calls with LVS but refuse to trade any DNDN (rolling different-strike/different-OE calls aside). Like I said yesterday, DNDN has been far more than a mere investment. It has been a life for over 5 years. I followed it on a daily basis even when I was forced out of any position for a long time since May 10, 2007. I first picked up DNDN in the ELN Yahoo message board and the hard learning started there and then. I have no medical background at all and it goes without saying that it has been a daunting task to learn all those that are associated with prostate cancer, from pathology to clinical trials to the FDA regulatory process, leaving alone the nitty glitty ...... It was not easy, to say the least. As I have repeatedly stated that the devastation I suffered from the FDA CRL announced May 9, 2007 changed my financial life for ever. If it was not for that devastation, I would have probably gone all in this time around like I did back in 2007. All is water under the bridge.

Now that Provenge is approved and the first treatment begins next week, DNDN is no longer viewed as a pre-earnings biotech play (the huge risks/rewards associated with trial results and the FDA ruling are removed). Rather, it will be valuated as a commercialized drug maker. But it is still a one-trick pony until Nuevenge reaches the market. From a conservative investment perspective, buying yesterday after trading was resumed or today is far better than buying yesterday before the halt. Are there still risks involved? You bet, yes. These risks are associated with demand (supply bottleneck, for that matter), execution, man-made errors, unforseen safety issues, and of course, the unexpected and unexpectable.

DNDN has truly been a learning/trying/humbling experience. All the hard DD have been done and the wait for the FDA decision is over now. I will work out an exit plan for my May ITM calls and a holding plan over the weekend.

Next week is expected to be hectic too with ITMN and APPY. Then there are LVS/MGM ER's looming.

WS participation is a bitch! I wish I did not start this game in the first place.
 
I am most impressed with your experience with DNDN for your tenacity and passion. It is no easy task to stick to the end after such severe loss and then persevere to a new start.

Frankly speaking, I haven't found anyone else who has same passion and commitment to stock investment and speculation.

I plan to spend some serious time to track bio companies while keep focusing on analysis-style share hunting.

I hope we can resume sharing knowledge in bio companies (especially significant events) and/or companies in other areas. If Watsa's assessment of current stock market turns out to be correct (resembling 1976 to 1996), there are surely a lot of opportunities to catch during this long up swing. Growing flowers is much easier in Spring than in other seasons after all....
 
I am most impressed with your experience with DNDN for your tenacity and passion. It is no easy task to stick to the end after such severe loss and then persevere to a new start.

Frankly speaking, I haven't found anyone else who has same passion and commitment to stock investment and speculation.

I plan to spend some serious time to track bio companies while keep focusing on analysis-style share hunting.

I hope we can resume sharing knowledge in bio companies (especially significant events) and/or companies in other areas. If Watsa's assessment of current stock market turns out to be correct (resembling 1976 to 1996), there are surely a lot of opportunities to catch during this long up swing. Growing flowers is much easier in Spring than in other seasons after all....

Thank you very much again!

I see myself taking a little breather after finishing ITMN and APPY on hand, hopefully wihin the next two/three weeks.

There are only that many revolutions in any given field and no revolution has ever been won without adversaries in the form of money, sweat, blood and even lives. Pioneers almost always lead miserable lives. DNDN is certainly no exception but at the same time truly represented a life-time opportunity (it still is). Mitch Gold is a visionary, not only bringing Provenge to the ultimate FDA approval but also keeping 100% world right. If he had not walked out of that negotiating room but signed a partnership with a big pharma back in 2005, DNDN may not have to go through all those extreme difficulties. Provenge may have been approved back in 2007. Life for PC patients and DNDN investors may have been a lot pleasant. But all of that is water under the bridge. What counts in the end is that an unknown little biotech managed to bring a cancer treatment paradigm shift to the world without the backing of a big pharma. This is unprecedented. MG himself was personally confronted with an unspeakably amount of adversaries for every move he made since 2005: the secondary offerings, the sale of stock to pay taxes following the 2007 AC, the refusal to partner ......

My plan going forward with DNDN is an easy one now. Since my May calls are deep in the money, there is almost no time value left. I will leave some to exercise and the minute I sell the majority, I will also sell some OTM puts, not for the cash but hoping to be put the shares. I will also buy some OTM 2012 LEAPs. This is a swap and timing isn't an issue at all. And I am not a good trader, having never been able to sell the local top and buy the local bottom (a few cents won't make any difference in the long haul whatsoever, anyway). My ambitions are to ultimately own 5-10K shares and 200-300 2012 80-100 LEAPs on cash (I will never again use margin). That can absolutely not be achieved with the sale of my May calls. This will have to be carried out in phases. The screen name I used to post messages in the Investorvillage DNDN board was Dendreonnaire. It was changed to ComebackwithDendreon after May 2007. I don't post there any longer. This time around, my stake was not big enough to make that original screen name a reality but the second screen name did not disappoint.

To reach my desired level of DNDN ownership, I will need help from other positions, chiefly ITMN and APPY within the next couple of weeks hopefully. LVS and MGM are wild cards. AGEN may be a dog forever and I don't even have to remember how much I have. My BAC OTM calls are surely tax writeoffs amidst this GS hoopla. There is little to save by taking loss. Oh well, I took a hefty loss with my GS puts and they turned out to be a 10-bagger yesterday. That is life.

I will buy DNDN at whatever the market price is at the time I can spare the cash until I reach the desired level of ownership. I have no idea when that will be accomplished. Depending upon the circumstances, I can live peacefully at the lower range. What I do surely know is that I won't sleep a night without DNDN in my account until 3 years into Nuevenge 's being on the market. The Nuevenge trial results will represent yet another opportunity for options play.

Just an honest comment on your desire to participate in the pre-earnings bio space. Your valuation methods probably work well elsewhere but absolutely not with the bio space. By definition, there is no earnings for valuations to be based on. You are starting on the wrong footing by looking at the balance sheet, to begin with. They are all burning cash and as such, cash position matters only to the extent of secondary offering (dilution). The key elements in pre-earnings biotechs are:

1) Market potentials and you can't get that from WS analysts or the media --- they can't even distinguish between mean and median survival benefits Provenge provides. The correct way to express Provenge survival benefits is that it provides a statistically significant and clinically meaningful median survival benefit of 4.1 months eveluated at 36 months (I forgot the p-value off the top of my mind now but it is under 0.05). There are treated patients who are still living a quality life after 8/10 years (whose prognosis is 12-18 months of life)! There is also a statistically significant and clinically meaningful survival rate benefit (the hazard ratio or HR is either 0.725 or 0.745 with a p-value of 0.001). They can't even get such easy stuff right, can you trust them to have estimates and valuations correct?

2) Prior Phase 2 trial results and Phase 3 trial results if any (usually the FDA requires two independent trials). MDVN is a big lesson here. The Phase 2 successful trials were done in Russia but the Phases 3 are done worldwide. Different races may have different bio/generic makeups. A drug works well with onc race may not work at all with other races. So, trial designs are also very important.

3) Competitive positions in the field

Pre-earnings biotech investment/speculation is very different from any other. If your strategy starts with risk consideration, my only advice to you is not to get involved at all. My personal strategy is not to own shares but options even after all the hard DD that can possibly be done. Missing ITMN from 12 to 45 in a matter of days was a grave judgement error on my part. My hard DD led me to the conclusion that the conflicting two trial results will lead to an unfavourable FDA AC ruling. Huge surprise indeed. And the pps movements were even more surprising. It was heavily shorted with a small float. And Stevie Cohen has a big hand on the long side. Short squeezes carried all the way to the high of 49 and change. The pps movement did not change my DD and that was why I went in deep with April puts when it was around 40 and lost big. Acting upon what I firmly believe in, I went in with May puts following the release of their Hep C trial results right at the top of the pps. Traded a few hands with May puts and have got back about 50% of my losses. I am still hanging on to the highly profitable May puts that I repurchased just last Thursday after taking good profits with LVS and MGM. I am still debating if to enter a bear spread to get some initial commitment back (sellling lower-strike puts) for insurance comes Monday. My puts are at the 40- and 35-strike, I pay a hefty premium for them. The 20- or 15-strike puts' premium is pretty hard to resist. The issue in my mind for this weekend is to go for a kill/bust or be safe. My commitment is rather sizable. A 5-point miss has a significant implication. I will likely decide by Monday morning after more DD this weekend.

Pre-earnings biotech investment/speculation is a bet for all or none and I want to minimize the amount of exposure. Losing all sounds terrible but when the exposure is only 2-5% for the same number of shares effectively under control, the risk relative to owning shares is a whole lot lower for a very simple observation, biotech shares don't usually move for only 3-5% either way in an binary event! In a negative out, options are dead but shares suffer substantial reduction of value and loss of equity far exceeing 3-5%.

All is my own pesonal opinion and strategies.
 
CAT: there is another thing I am really sick and tired with!

And that is your non-stop reference to Buffett/Watsa. Yes, they are probably good, very good. And I am happy that you find your idols to follow. But please, don't bring them up non-stop in this thread. With all due respect, all economic indicators are out there for everyone to see and make their judgements accordingly. In addition, everyone's objective/style may be very different. I don't give a rat's ass to what Buffect/Watsa has to say about the future of the economy.

I respectfully beg you not to bring up Buffett/Watsa here again in this thread in your future posts. Thank you!

FYI, Buffett is no better than GS if not worst when it comes to market manipulation, IMHO. Rich evidence is out there that Buffett utilizes S&P through his huge ownership for upgrade/downgrade to manipulate the market (S&P is only one vehicle in his tool box). Do you have any idea about the size of Buffett's derivative holdings? Do you have any idea how many AAA ratings S&P gave to bankrupt CDO's, CDS's? Guess who were the sellers of these derivatives when S&P assigned them AAA ratings? None other than GS and Mr. Warren Buffett! Tell me why Buffett is so much against bank reform, especially the clause dealing with collateral requirements for derivative positions. Sorry to poke a hole in your god but the truth is out there. I am just a little retail stock speculator, looking for fair games (if ever exist) to play with but I hate big-name manipulators!
 
No problem. I will stop referring to them and also stop updating the thread on super investors. You are correct that they have many resources we don't have ...

Let's focus on bio fields. I agree that traditional metrics don't apply here and there has to be new perspectives.
 
No problem. I will stop referring to them and also stop updating the thread on super investors. You are correct that they have many resources we don't have ...

Let's focus on bio fields. I agree that traditional metrics don't apply here and there has to be new perspectives.

Thank you very much and feel free to post whatever you feel like about those big names anywhere you like but here. This is a free country and everybody is entitled to his/her opinions. Also, one has to believe in something, after all.

The pre-earnings biotech space is without a doubt a gold mine. Just imagine the number of millionnaires DCTH, DNDN and POZN have produced over the last couple of weeks, ITMN prior to that. But it takes hard work, very hard work to find the diamonds in the rougs. There are many out there and 95-98% of them never make it to the light of the day.

I have DNDN in the bag now and won't let go for years. I won't be able to touch anything until I am done with ITMN (just for this FDA play and will let go one way or another as soon as tomorrow or Tuesday but no later than the end of this week) and APPY (this can truly be a life saver and a big hitter conditional on the positive trial results soon to be released). I was lucky to make some serious dough with DCTH in a matter of weeks, being in the right place at the right time. I have already let it go for now but may get back in later. I have stared at HGSI and AMLN for quite some time now, haven't done anything yet. Both are highly-priced but I think they can go much higher in the not so distant future. I will go all out, attempting to find the next DNDN (pre-data, pre-FDA, pre-earnings) after a break and some reflections. There is no assurance I will find it but I will try my very best. I want to get into the insurance space and airline space for some come back plays.

Very best of lucks in your stock hunting!
 
OK, let me give out APPY

Phase 3 pivotal trial results are expected to be released over the next few weeks. AppyScore enjoys three distinct advantages over the current SOC, CT scan:

1) A fraction of the time required: 45 minutes vs 5-7 hours
2) Minimal side effects vs radiation
3) Substantially reduced costs: 80-150 vs 500-700

The company is also working on a 15-minute version

Market potentials: Annual sales of 400-600M in the US emergency room setting alone, not to count other uses and the global market

APPY owns 100% global rights as of now

Total shares outstanding, base and dilutive (including options and warrants): about 43M

This is a medical equipment, not a drug. The FDA regulatory process is different.

Hit or miss means make or break. Should the trial hit, this is a highly profitable long keeper; in case of failure, dog house. Risky stuff indeed.

Wish me good luck, everyone, and add an "H" to the ticker for my position when PR hits the wire.

Disclosure of position: 4K shares, 50 May 5 calls, -30 May 5 puts, -60 June 5 puts
 
Watch these as part of DD if you own or have an eye on LVS

SA (Sheldon Adelson), Chairman and CEO of LVS, the son of a poor NY taxi driver, is truly a tough warrior, a risk-taking industrist, a big-time entreprenuer, and a living moral inspirator, is interviewed when the MBS was opened on April 27. This fellow is expected to take a run at Warren Buffett's wealth Kingdom soon! I feel lucky to have him as one of my CEOs. Part of the interview as well as sketches on the MBS can be seen here. I advise LVS owners and would-be owners to watch as part of the DD.

I am in a good mood and let me give out a humble advise regarding LVS. I know some of you have been thinking about shorting LVS because of the great runups lately. Don't bet against SA and don't bet against the house. You may be able to swing a few pennies here, a few pennies there but don't be penny-wise and pound-foolish. LVS has strong legs and sharp teeth. However small my account may be, playing like the big boys do is the only way to go in all markets, bull or bear.

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