I am most impressed with your experience with DNDN for your tenacity and passion. It is no easy task to stick to the end after such severe loss and then persevere to a new start.
Frankly speaking, I haven't found anyone else who has same passion and commitment to stock investment and speculation.
I plan to spend some serious time to track bio companies while keep focusing on analysis-style share hunting.
I hope we can resume sharing knowledge in bio companies (especially significant events) and/or companies in other areas. If Watsa's assessment of current stock market turns out to be correct (resembling 1976 to 1996), there are surely a lot of opportunities to catch during this long up swing. Growing flowers is much easier in Spring than in other seasons after all....
Thank you very much again!
I see myself taking a little breather after finishing ITMN and APPY on hand, hopefully wihin the next two/three weeks.
There are only that many revolutions in any given field and no revolution has ever been won without adversaries in the form of money, sweat, blood and even lives. Pioneers almost always lead miserable lives. DNDN is certainly no exception but at the same time truly represented a life-time opportunity (it still is). Mitch Gold is a visionary, not only bringing Provenge to the ultimate FDA approval but also keeping 100% world right. If he had not walked out of that negotiating room but signed a partnership with a big pharma back in 2005, DNDN may not have to go through all those extreme difficulties. Provenge may have been approved back in 2007. Life for PC patients and DNDN investors may have been a lot pleasant. But all of that is water under the bridge. What counts in the end is that an unknown little biotech managed to bring a cancer treatment paradigm shift to the world without the backing of a big pharma. This is unprecedented. MG himself was personally confronted with an unspeakably amount of adversaries for every move he made since 2005: the secondary offerings, the sale of stock to pay taxes following the 2007 AC, the refusal to partner ......
My plan going forward with DNDN is an easy one now. Since my May calls are deep in the money, there is almost no time value left. I will leave some to exercise and the minute I sell the majority, I will also sell some OTM puts, not for the cash but hoping to be put the shares. I will also buy some OTM 2012 LEAPs. This is a swap and timing isn't an issue at all. And I am not a good trader, having never been able to sell the local top and buy the local bottom (a few cents won't make any difference in the long haul whatsoever, anyway). My ambitions are to ultimately own 5-10K shares and 200-300 2012 80-100 LEAPs on cash (I will never again use margin). That can absolutely not be achieved with the sale of my May calls. This will have to be carried out in phases. The screen name I used to post messages in the Investorvillage DNDN board was Dendreonnaire. It was changed to ComebackwithDendreon after May 2007. I don't post there any longer. This time around, my stake was not big enough to make that original screen name a reality but the second screen name did not disappoint.
To reach my desired level of DNDN ownership, I will need help from other positions, chiefly ITMN and APPY within the next couple of weeks hopefully. LVS and MGM are wild cards. AGEN may be a dog forever and I don't even have to remember how much I have. My BAC OTM calls are surely tax writeoffs amidst this GS hoopla. There is little to save by taking loss. Oh well, I took a hefty loss with my GS puts and they turned out to be a 10-bagger yesterday. That is life.
I will buy DNDN at whatever the market price is at the time I can spare the cash until I reach the desired level of ownership. I have no idea when that will be accomplished. Depending upon the circumstances, I can live peacefully at the lower range. What I do surely know is that I won't sleep a night without DNDN in my account until 3 years into Nuevenge 's being on the market. The Nuevenge trial results will represent yet another opportunity for options play.
Just an honest comment on your desire to participate in the pre-earnings bio space. Your valuation methods probably work well elsewhere but absolutely not with the bio space. By definition, there is no earnings for valuations to be based on. You are starting on the wrong footing by looking at the balance sheet, to begin with. They are all burning cash and as such, cash position matters only to the extent of secondary offering (dilution). The key elements in pre-earnings biotechs are:
1) Market potentials and you can't get that from WS analysts or the media --- they can't even distinguish between mean and median survival benefits Provenge provides. The correct way to express Provenge survival benefits is that it provides a statistically significant and clinically meaningful median survival benefit of 4.1 months eveluated at 36 months (I forgot the p-value off the top of my mind now but it is under 0.05). There are treated patients who are still living a quality life after 8/10 years (whose prognosis is 12-18 months of life)! There is also a statistically significant and clinically meaningful survival rate benefit (the hazard ratio or HR is either 0.725 or 0.745 with a p-value of 0.001). They can't even get such easy stuff right, can you trust them to have estimates and valuations correct?
2) Prior Phase 2 trial results and Phase 3 trial results if any (usually the FDA requires two independent trials). MDVN is a big lesson here. The Phase 2 successful trials were done in Russia but the Phases 3 are done worldwide. Different races may have different bio/generic makeups. A drug works well with onc race may not work at all with other races. So, trial designs are also very important.
3) Competitive positions in the field
Pre-earnings biotech investment/speculation is very different from any other. If your strategy starts with risk consideration, my only advice to you is not to get involved at all. My personal strategy is not to own shares but options even after all the hard DD that can possibly be done. Missing ITMN from 12 to 45 in a matter of days was a grave judgement error on my part. My hard DD led me to the conclusion that the conflicting two trial results will lead to an unfavourable FDA AC ruling. Huge surprise indeed. And the pps movements were even more surprising. It was heavily shorted with a small float. And Stevie Cohen has a big hand on the long side. Short squeezes carried all the way to the high of 49 and change. The pps movement did not change my DD and that was why I went in deep with April puts when it was around 40 and lost big. Acting upon what I firmly believe in, I went in with May puts following the release of their Hep C trial results right at the top of the pps. Traded a few hands with May puts and have got back about 50% of my losses. I am still hanging on to the highly profitable May puts that I repurchased just last Thursday after taking good profits with LVS and MGM. I am still debating if to enter a bear spread to get some initial commitment back (sellling lower-strike puts) for insurance comes Monday. My puts are at the 40- and 35-strike, I pay a hefty premium for them. The 20- or 15-strike puts' premium is pretty hard to resist. The issue in my mind for this weekend is to go for a kill/bust or be safe. My commitment is rather sizable. A 5-point miss has a significant implication. I will likely decide by Monday morning after more DD this weekend.
Pre-earnings biotech investment/speculation is a bet for all or none and I want to minimize the amount of exposure. Losing all sounds terrible but when the exposure is only 2-5% for the same number of shares effectively under control, the risk relative to owning shares is a whole lot lower for a very simple observation, biotech shares don't usually move for only 3-5% either way in an binary event! In a negative out, options are dead but shares suffer substantial reduction of value and loss of equity far exceeing 3-5%.
All is my own pesonal opinion and strategies.