精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中

[加京游子]

A comprehensive summary of DNDN

My take on DNDN should be unmistakenly and unambiguously known by now. I have no idea how many of you got into DNDN and when. If you miss the party thus far, I don't think it is too late to get in now. I have stated without any ambiguity that now is the better time to buy for the long haul for conservative investors. Yes, some easy money was missed but the grave risks are also removed. Anyway, I have given out DNDN for nearly a year. It is your money and your decision. Take good care of it. I wish each and every one of you all the very best of lucks!

What follows is a good summary compiled by BioHealth Investor. There are a few errors here and there but it is definitely a good summary worth of a read if you are still interested.

http://www.biohealthinvestor.com/2010/05/2010-outlook-the-road-ahead-for-dendreon-dndn.html

 

[Ssssst]

Just wanna say a few words here. I am extremely happy for you, 加京游子, but I think everybody should note that investing in the biotech industry is extremely risky. There is no way that anybody, including the brightest industry analysts, 加京游子, even company executives, could predict the result of any NDA. Even the best biotech company run by the best and most capable manager could fail the NDA thus go bankrupt. Yes, there are huge rewards, but don't forget the inherent risks that you are bearing.

My take on DNDN should be unmistakenly and unambiguously known by now. I have no idea how many of you got into DNDN and when. If you miss the party thus far, I don't think it is too late to get in now. I have stated without any ambiguity that now is the better time to buy for the long haul for conservative investors. Yes, some easy money was missed but the grave risks are also removed. Anyway, I have given out DNDN for nearly a year. It is your money and your decision. Take good care of it. I wish each and every one of you all the very best of lucks!

What follows is a good summary compiled by BioHealth Investor. There are a few errors here and there but it is definitely a good summary worth of a read if you are still interested.

http://www.biohealthinvestor.com/2010/05/2010-outlook-the-road-ahead-for-dendreon-dndn.html

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing information on APPY and I will take a look. I read it last week from Street.com and was interested because a few people I knew were mis-diagnosed for appendix. One thought he was going to die while lying on hospital bed.

Doctors here are not as experienced as ones back in China and the process of diagnosis is very slow. So this drug surely helps a lot ...

I still can't grasp essence of MGM or LVS in terms of their intangible assets. I was viewing them more from property angle and could be way off mark. Hope I can pick up some thoughts from your postings.

I agree that shorting these names while asset prices are still depressed surely needs a lot courage. Personally, I think it is far more difficult to short than long...

 

[lazycatcat]

Just wanna say a few words here. I am extremely happy for you, 加京游子, but I think everybody should note that investing in the biotech industry is extremely risky. There is no way that anybody, including the brightest industry analysts, 加京游子, even company executives, could predict the result of any NDA. Even the best biotech company run by the best and most capable manager could fail the NDA thus go bankrupt. Yes, there are huge rewards, but don't forget the inherent risks that you are bearing.

To speculate, one needs a system where no one has obvious advantage. That is the "beauty" of bio plays I think. It is simple and market reaction is dramatic.

Taking DNDN as an example, FDA was very tight-lipped and the market was very worried till last minute.

In current Internet age, availability of information has no advantage because everyone has it. It is lack of information that provides a level ground, sort of, for everyone, especially little guys.

The risk of bio is FDA approval or trial results (hard to fake by the way). That is the only risk before the point of drug approval and thus one can try to limit it, chiefly via exposures.

 

[加京游子]

Just wanna say a few words here. I am extremely happy for you, 加京游子, but I think everybody should note that investing in the biotech industry is extremely risky. There is no way that anybody, including the brightest industry analysts, 加京游子, even company executives, could predict the result of any NDA. Even the best biotech company run by the best and most capable manager could fail the NDA thus go bankrupt. Yes, there are huge rewards, but don't forget the inherent risks that you are bearing.

Thank you very much!

不才认为你说的句句是颠扑不破的放之四海而皆准的真理! 不过, 说了跟没说也没啥两样! 这老天还能真掉馅饼? 这世上还真有不冒风险的高回报? GIC 和 CSB（Canada Savings Bond）应该说风险不高，可惜回报也不高！It all depends on what one wants.

Yes, pre-data, pre-FDA, pre-earnings biotech speculation is highly risky, and that is an understatement! The data I have on hand show that 95-98% of development-stage biotech companies never make it to the light of the day. I don't encourage anybody else to do what I do. Stock investment/speculation is a highly individual thing (and I think that is why I am still a single man, seriously). I post my ideas here simply to share, nothing more, nothing less. I would be very happy if somebody picks my ideas up, does his/her own DD, makes moves (long or short, call or put), and profits! Personally, I pick up a lot of ideas from message boards, followed by my own DD, and take actions accordingly. I never blindly trust any opinions I read (and I read a lot) with my money without my own DD. And I hope everybody does the same!

It is a beautiful day and I take advantage of it with a pleasant bike ride along the canal, seeing the gorgeous tulips in full bloom!

 

[加京游子]

Thanks for sharing information on APPY and I will take a look. I read it last week from Street.com and was interested because a few people I knew were mis-diagnosed for appendix. One thought he was going to die while lying on hospital bed.

Doctors here are not as experienced as ones back in China and the process of diagnosis is very slow. So this drug surely helps a lot ...

I still can't grasp essence of MGM or LVS in terms of their intangible assets. I was viewing them more from property angle and could be way off mark. Hope I can pick up some thoughts from your postings.

I agree that shorting these names while asset prices are still depressed surely needs a lot courage. Personally, I think it is far more difficult to short than long...

I am not done with APPY yet --- I haven't traded a hand and there will be tons of trading opportunities in the days/weeks ahead, nothing scientific or market savviness, just a killer instinct! I very much like to play with house money right prior to a binary event! I own 4K shares fully intending to trade them in PM or AH at the time I deem prudent because options can't trade outside the regular session. I intend to sell these shares and buy more calls but the data can come out any time now and I may very well miss the chance to trade.

Don't get into anything that you can't grasp --- a free yet friendly advice. LVS is THE leader in the space. If you can't make good money with the leader, simply let go the entire space. I love comeback stories. It is 2010 not 1998 now, 80-90% of LVS revenues will be from Asia. Watch the interview with SA I posted earlier. Give it some time, LVS will recover to its old high and SA will be richer than WB. I am actually trading-minded, but I don't necessarily trade on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, depending on what my DD tells me. Take DNDN for example, I bought a little here and there whenever I could afford since May 2007 and I sat with it for years (can you imagine I bought 1 call three times during this period, paying $11.24 --- 9.99+1.25 --- in commission each time?). There are stocks made for holding and there are stocks made for trading. I traded LVS/MGM many times since the beginning of the year and OMG, my tax bill next year will kill me! Paying taxes is, though, the least of my concern --- the federal marginal tax rate in my bracket is no higher than 45%, I believe (sigh), and I view paying taxes as the best thing --- the more taxes I have to pay, the better! The year in which I have to pay $1M taxes will be the year in which a dream comes true! And I hope I can repeat that year after year if not higher taxes!

 

[加京游子]

Thanks for sharing information on APPY and I will take a look. I read it last week from Street.com and was interested because a few people I knew were mis-diagnosed for appendix. One thought he was going to die while lying on hospital bed.

Doctors here are not as experienced as ones back in China and the process of diagnosis is very slow. So this drug surely helps a lot ...

I still can't grasp essence of MGM or LVS in terms of their intangible assets. I was viewing them more from property angle and could be way off mark. Hope I can pick up some thoughts from your postings.

I agree that shorting these names while asset prices are still depressed surely needs a lot courage. Personally, I think it is far more difficult to short than long...

AF is a short mouth piece (and a piece of shit, let me stop at that), an employee of Jim Cramer. I go most of the time as a contrarian but I love the guy. He posts bio schedules (more timely than the FDA's own website) and I use that as a highly profitable tool. In addition, his biotech mailbag creates a lot of great buying opportunities.

I can be wrong but what I read from your posts leads me to the conclusion that maybe you are good at seeing the trees but you are not good at seeing the forest at all. You place risks before rewards, at least to this point. All of that may not be a bad investment/speculation trait after all. I don't care about the long long term of market movements. I simply want to make some quick bucks so that I can get out of the market altogether to do the things I truly love with my life. 鄙人胸无大志, 图的是早日能够退休以便烟酒茶花、风花雪月、吃香喝辣、游山玩水！

 

[加京游子]

From my mouth to god's ear, a few market wisdoms you may takeaway

1) Mr. Market is never wrong, only traders are
2) The market can stay irrational far longer than a trader can remain solvent
3) The stock doesn't know if you are an owner. It goes where it wants to go regardless of whether you are an owner or not
4) Never leave a winning table
5) Don't throw good money after bad

 

[加京游子]

Greed, fear, hope and ignorance --- what is in you?

They are all in me:

Extra greedy with DNDN, APPY, LVS and MGM --- no sale but opened 100 APPY June 5 calls at 0.8 today;

Fearful with ITMN --- although the PM trading volume was tiny, the buy at the ask got me a strange feeling that unusual things would happen today right prior to the FDA PDUFA date. To guard against the unexpected (ITMN has surprised me way too many times in a short time span), I sold May 25 puts against my 40 and 35 puts, effectively entering a bear spread and reducing my exposure. Part of that proceeds were used to open APPY calls. I have a few speculations regarding ITMN trading today but none matters. The only thing material is the FDA decision and the wait won't be long at all;

Hopeful with BAC --- The GS and financial reform noises shall come to pass and BAC may let me get some money back；and

Ignorant with AGEN --- nothing to do.

 

[加京游子]

ITMN --- The PDUFA date is tomorrow

Although my bear spread position was taken today, there are still a combination of strategies to be taken going forward, depending on market responses to the FDA ruling. I will respond after the ruling.

If you have a position or am thinking about opening a position tomorrow, here is something worth of a read --- the most comprehensive I have read up to this point. Again, tomorrow is likely the last day to take a position.

Again, let me repeat that it is your money. Don't trust anything you read without your own DD.

http://www.gekkowire.com/?p=3218

 

[lazycatcat]

Bio companies

Some information and observation to share.

1. ITMN: The option pricing indicates extreme volatility in the next few days. It is like stress accumulation before a major volcano eruption. If FDA delays and ITMN goes back to do more testing, it could be the same situation as DNDN in 2007. We will know by tomorrow I guess.

2. APPY: The company website states new results 6 to 8 weeks after March 23rd. Street.com thinks the results will be announced in June. Not sure which is which. However, the new issuance of $10 M at $4.85 may indicate positive results by informed investors.

3. BCRX: Just read news on the company's product as a fight to avian flu. FDA approval will be in 2011 but it seems the drug is already being used. This could be highly interesting given the market cap of the company and the difficulty in finding another Tamaflu. Based on my knowledge, it is very hard to find new (Sorry, what is the word for drug fighting flue ?).

4. VVUS and ARNA: It seems Orex is no longer a player given its error in interpreting data (?). VVUS is reported to have new drug approval date in July. No visibility on ARNA. Do you think VVUS could be back as a player again ?

 

[lazycatcat]

They are all in me:

Extra greedy with DNDN, APPY, LVS and MGM --- no sale but opened 100 APPY June 5 calls at 0.8 today;

Fearful with ITMN --- although the PM trading volume was tiny, the buy at the ask got me a strange feeling that unusual things would happen today right prior to the FDA PDUFA date. To guard against the unexpected (ITMN has surprised me way too many times in a short time span), I sold May 25 puts against my 40 and 35 puts, effectively entering a bear spread and reducing my exposure. Part of that proceeds were used to open APPY calls. I have a few speculations regarding ITMN trading today but none matters. The only thing material is the FDA decision and the wait won't be long at all;

Hopeful with BAC --- The GS and financial reform noises shall come to pass and BAC may let me get some money back；and

Ignorant with AGEN --- nothing to do.

I looked at APPY June 5 call and didn't realize it was you who opened it ! By the way, just curious how you can open an option ?

 

[加京游子]

I looked at APPY June 5 call and didn't realize it was you who opened it ! By the way, just curious how you can open an option ?

Haha! It was as easy as 1, 2, 3. After selling ITMN May 25P (my ask was 5 cents below the bid but I got the bid price at 2.55), I checked the quote, 0.7X0.9. I really wanted to get filled. So, I entered the mid-point at 0.8. The options MM really played games with me by filling only 10 and the ask was raised to 0.95 but my bid remained the highest. With the pps remained flatlined, I simply left my order in. It took nearly all morning to get my 100 calls filled. I did not get them until lunch time. There were sales at 0.75 afterwards but the volume was not big. The majority went off at 0.8.

There is an error in your post about APPY's secondary offer last Friday. The effective sale price was 4.15 (the warrants were at no cost with an exercise price of 4.85).

According to the March 23 PR, data release is expected between May 4 and May 18 (6-8 weeks for data analysis per the PR). But this kind of estimates is not rochet science and I give a margin for errors in the timing. I have shares and some May calls (and sold some puts already). That is the ratonale for my getting June calls. This AF guy may be confused with data release and 510(K) filing but I suspect he has ulterior motives.

Regarding the weight loss space, OREX is out. I still think VVUS' safety is a big concern. That leaves only ARNA in play. I may put some VVUS and long ARNA. No decision yet.

Got burnt badly by the Flu vaccine space, leaving it alone.

 

[加京游子]

DNDN: CEO exercised options and sold a good chunk

News of MG selling a good chunk of his holdings last Thursday and Friday was broken around 5:10pm today, with two versions of number of shares being sold. AH reaction seemed not to be much concerned but the volume was really not big enough to read any meaningful indication. How do the institutional holders react to this insider selling news is the key for the pps in the short term.

I really don't know what to expect tomorrow but there is really nothing that can be done now. Hope the big boys will fiercely defend any downward pressure this news may cause.

 

[加京游子]

A note on MG stock selling

I am admittedly getting very nervous upon this news, there is no bone about it. Maybe I will pay a hefty price for being greedy again, maybe not. The cold consolation at this particular time is that history tells that MG is not a market savvy stock seller. Back in April 2007, he sold a good chunk around 15 and the stock continued to rally to the high of 25.25, followed by the devastating CRL (no insider front-running news). He sold last year upon the IMPACT results and the stock continued to rally to 40 pre-approval. I am keeping my fingers crossed that history will repeat itself. I shall know by tomorrow.

To be fair, they are his shares and he is entitled to do whatever he likes with them, just like anybody else. After taking this little unknown unloved company all the way to the FDA approval without the backing of a big pharma, the guy deserves a big payday, after all. But as the captain, his large sale sends the market a trigger to speculate, which I really don't like at all.

Judging by the way he sold his shares, I feel his mission has been accomplished. He doesn't have what it takes to make DNDN the next DNA/AMGN. It is time for MG to step aside and let Hans Bishop/Greg Schiffman take over the helm!