精华 苦辣酸甜难书尽，成败得失笑谈中
- 主题发起人 加京游子
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看过您的开楼帖子。很精彩，荡气回肠的。和我当初的征婚帖子有一比。只不过我的那个帖子是个山寨版，抄人家的。您这个帖子吗，都是自家产的，那么放在这儿心理就踏实多了。
不认为您是个败军之将，觉得您是成功人士。当然，我衡量一个人是否成功，标准就是和我自己比。比我强的都属成功，比我差的才算失败。看得出来，无论怎么衡量，您都属于成功人士。只不过人的一生，总是三十年河东，三十年河西呀。
至于您想写的那几本业余书籍，除了品酒的我不懂以外，其它的都挺感兴趣，那么在此先预订了。别把价钱定太高啊！
一夜之间，几十万、几百万地赔，如果不是败军之将，那还能是什么？
林彪是自觉没有70%以上胜算的仗不打，粟裕是觉得该打就打，两人都成了共和国的开国帅将，神！Livermore是多空并进、以空胜出，Lynch是只多不空，两人都成了华尔街的神！天生的，学不来的！
你如果是忠诚的读者并踊跃提问，我的业余著述都可以签名免费赠送---但愿有那一天并且是在不太久远的将来！
Best of lucks!
谢谢你的提醒和建议。
补充一点，我觉得如果不是专业专职TRADER（有时间全天盯盘），还是避免作NAKED SHORT。我作的都是SPREAD，基本上每个仓位都有或多或少的HEDGE，特别是在目前的市场情况下。
Yes, honey, hedge! That is the key word, HEDGE! 到今天为止，我的所有positions都是单向的long，除了今天做的MGM options，我没有短期非卖不可的，这些options都是铁了心的，亏赚都无关痛痒的---这是我想不赔本纠正MGMAC错误的做法！我可能会short，但一般都买puts，除了有in-the-money calls做hedge，现在还没有。This market is at the pivotal point and can go either way. I would rather err on the long side! Best of lucks!
说得挺有道理的！我要hedge的是短时间内的狂跌而不是阴跌因为我现在不愿卖掉我的long positions---买保险嘛，有谁还真愿意意外发生呀！
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市场总是很微妙。
HEDGE，要看每个人的账户里面买的是什么东西，策略会有所不同。
可以买PUT，买CALL，可以卖COVER CALL，也可以做BEAR SPREAD或者BULL SPREAD。看自己对大势的预测，也看自己愿意承担的风险。
周末看大盘觉得如果周一周二涨不上去就没有什么上涨力度了。应该是做空的好时机。
今天大盘就调高开，让前两天做空的人难受。明天说不定还给你往上拔，看你COVER不COVER你的仓位，忍着不COVER吧，就还给你往上吊，忍不住了赶紧COVER吧，它就开始往下泄。就是这么逗。
但是在这个大盘连续呈现升势四个月的似夏非夏的七月底，在这个SPX位于整数1000的阻力点，在这个失业率和公司季报未见明显好转的金融危机后，市场没有一个调整，我不大敢相信。
不过，一切事情都有可能发生。仓位轻些吧，有时候要相信自己的判断，有些耐心。但其实更重要的是，顺势而为，该跑就要跑。
HEDGE，要看每个人的账户里面买的是什么东西，策略会有所不同。
可以买PUT，买CALL，可以卖COVER CALL，也可以做BEAR SPREAD或者BULL SPREAD。看自己对大势的预测，也看自己愿意承担的风险。
周末看大盘觉得如果周一周二涨不上去就没有什么上涨力度了。应该是做空的好时机。
今天大盘就调高开，让前两天做空的人难受。明天说不定还给你往上拔，看你COVER不COVER你的仓位，忍着不COVER吧，就还给你往上吊，忍不住了赶紧COVER吧，它就开始往下泄。就是这么逗。
但是在这个大盘连续呈现升势四个月的似夏非夏的七月底，在这个SPX位于整数1000的阻力点，在这个失业率和公司季报未见明显好转的金融危机后，市场没有一个调整，我不大敢相信。
不过，一切事情都有可能发生。仓位轻些吧，有时候要相信自己的判断，有些耐心。但其实更重要的是，顺势而为，该跑就要跑。
All eyes are on Q2GDP
The markets are at this pivotal point. Make it or break it, all eyes are on Q2GDP to be released this morning. Anything under -1.5%? Bears will undoubtedly be in deep shit! Over it? Bulls will surely suffer some painful pullbacks, only temporarily though, IMHO.
The majority of market signals is already writing on the wall. How does one read and interpret them? 仁者见仁，智者见智, beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. All I see points to a clear bullish bias, long passing the "sell the rally" bearish stage and entering into the "buy the dip" bullish mood. Minor corrections will surely happen here and there, now and then. The trend is, nevertheless, unambiguously upwards. As such, I am all in on the bull side with a conviction. A local top will be reached and soon, no question about it whatsoever. How to read the signal? Volume --- a sharp price rise with a spike in volume, which I read as panic buying, will top this uptrend locally. I haven't seen enough volume thus far to call a local top despite the steady price increases.
Markets are an unpredictable animal, changes of direction can take place in a blink of an eye without any prior warnings, re-enforced by the herd mentality. Be fully prepared for the unexpected and unexpectable. When it moves against your expections, get out and fast!
As for my own little portfolio, only BAC is very much affected by the overall market --- it leads it in either direction; MGM 2QER is out Monday and that is the force in play, along with the market trend, for sure; DNDN, ELN and DVAX don't follow the market very much --- biotechs are largely driven by individual news, a distinct feature and a dorminant factor in my strong bias towards the sector, more details on that to come.
As of 4:30am, Futures are slightly green, Europe mildly red, Nikkei off a little, and Hang Seng up a tick.
Best of lucks!
The markets are at this pivotal point. Make it or break it, all eyes are on Q2GDP to be released this morning. Anything under -1.5%? Bears will undoubtedly be in deep shit! Over it? Bulls will surely suffer some painful pullbacks, only temporarily though, IMHO.
The majority of market signals is already writing on the wall. How does one read and interpret them? 仁者见仁，智者见智, beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. All I see points to a clear bullish bias, long passing the "sell the rally" bearish stage and entering into the "buy the dip" bullish mood. Minor corrections will surely happen here and there, now and then. The trend is, nevertheless, unambiguously upwards. As such, I am all in on the bull side with a conviction. A local top will be reached and soon, no question about it whatsoever. How to read the signal? Volume --- a sharp price rise with a spike in volume, which I read as panic buying, will top this uptrend locally. I haven't seen enough volume thus far to call a local top despite the steady price increases.
Markets are an unpredictable animal, changes of direction can take place in a blink of an eye without any prior warnings, re-enforced by the herd mentality. Be fully prepared for the unexpected and unexpectable. When it moves against your expections, get out and fast!
As for my own little portfolio, only BAC is very much affected by the overall market --- it leads it in either direction; MGM 2QER is out Monday and that is the force in play, along with the market trend, for sure; DNDN, ELN and DVAX don't follow the market very much --- biotechs are largely driven by individual news, a distinct feature and a dorminant factor in my strong bias towards the sector, more details on that to come.
As of 4:30am, Futures are slightly green, Europe mildly red, Nikkei off a little, and Hang Seng up a tick.
Best of lucks!
Forge ahead, sit on the fence, or stay behind?
These are the only three alternative courses of actions to take in life and in the marketplace. Put one's money where one's mouth is and keep the faith! Shooting from all sides of the mouth and keeping all grounds covered states nothing and gets one nowhere. In the meanwhile, stay alert for "black swan" events and fully guard against them at all times!
These are the only three alternative courses of actions to take in life and in the marketplace. Put one's money where one's mouth is and keep the faith! Shooting from all sides of the mouth and keeping all grounds covered states nothing and gets one nowhere. In the meanwhile, stay alert for "black swan" events and fully guard against them at all times!
Wish everyone a great weekend!
No trading, nothing to record.
Congratulations to my fellow BAC longs! I feel the +20%, +30%, +40% days are behind BAC now as the M2M accounting rule change hearing, PPIP and stress-test results days were long gone. This feight train is, nevertheless, just starting to pull off the station with the speed-accelerator ready to be turned full-on. It will pass over anything in front of it. Get out if you are in its way. What is my exit plan for VBAAD? I am very confident that Mr. Market will send me the sell signal. As of now, I am inclined to keep it until it is in-the-money and go for the ride.
Good luck to my fellow longs in MGM, DNDN, ELN and DVAX, if there is any. Hope MGM 2QER beats handsomely Monday and I can unload some to significantly add ORGAH. Also good luck to everyone, long or short!
Signing off to go for a bike ride now. Until next time,
Enjoy the just-turned good weather while it lasts!
No trading, nothing to record.
Congratulations to my fellow BAC longs! I feel the +20%, +30%, +40% days are behind BAC now as the M2M accounting rule change hearing, PPIP and stress-test results days were long gone. This feight train is, nevertheless, just starting to pull off the station with the speed-accelerator ready to be turned full-on. It will pass over anything in front of it. Get out if you are in its way. What is my exit plan for VBAAD? I am very confident that Mr. Market will send me the sell signal. As of now, I am inclined to keep it until it is in-the-money and go for the ride.
Good luck to my fellow longs in MGM, DNDN, ELN and DVAX, if there is any. Hope MGM 2QER beats handsomely Monday and I can unload some to significantly add ORGAH. Also good luck to everyone, long or short!
Signing off to go for a bike ride now. Until next time,
Enjoy the just-turned good weather while it lasts!
What a pleasant surprise as I was just about to go out for a bike ride！
ELN just breaks out in AH. Why? "FDA Approves INVEGA(R) SUSTENNA(TM) for the Acute and Maintenance Treatment of Schizophrenia"
This is not ELN's drug and why does ELN surge on this news? I am myself very much pleasantly surprised indeed. This drug is developped with ELN's NanoCrystal® Technology under the EDT franchise. I am not aware of this at all --- not enough DD on my own part for sure although I thought I have done plenty, but hey, a plansant surprise is all the more appreciated! No bike ride, I got to read the royalty agreement! Icing on the cake, huh? Can't wait until Monday for the market to open!
ELN just breaks out in AH. Why? "FDA Approves INVEGA(R) SUSTENNA(TM) for the Acute and Maintenance Treatment of Schizophrenia"
This is not ELN's drug and why does ELN surge on this news? I am myself very much pleasantly surprised indeed. This drug is developped with ELN's NanoCrystal® Technology under the EDT franchise. I am not aware of this at all --- not enough DD on my own part for sure although I thought I have done plenty, but hey, a plansant surprise is all the more appreciated! No bike ride, I got to read the royalty agreement! Icing on the cake, huh? Can't wait until Monday for the market to open!
