CMHC警告失业率将高达25% 房价会腰斩

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house prices could fall 47.9 per cent peak-to-trough with an unemployment rate of 25 per cent in its worst case scenario.

That worst case outlook is for a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a prolonged recession and a loss of confidence. The scenario assumptions include no government assistance, stocks and oil would fall, and four mid-sized financial institutions and one private mortgage insurer would fail.


CMHC says without government intervention in such a scenario, its solvency and capitalization would be in question. Even with help, the agency says prices would fall 31.8 per cent and the unemployment rate would be 24.2 per cent.

In a U-shaped scenario, which involves a steep but short peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 7 per cent before recovery, it sees prices falling 33.9 per cent and an unemployment rate of 14.8 per cent.
 

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疫苗拯救不了经济 丢掉幻想 做最坏的准备
 

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The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is warning that more than 220,000 businesses across the country are at risk of permanently closing due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The CFIB, a lobby group that represents small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in Canada, released a new report on Thursday that surveyed 4,129 members about business prospects through the pandemic. The survey found that 181,000 businesses – or one in six – are seriously contemplating permanently closing. That’s up from a similar survey conducted in July, which found that 158,000 businesses were at risk of closing.
 

Jay Wang

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house prices could fall 47.9 per cent peak-to-trough with an unemployment rate of 25 per cent in its worst case scenario.

That worst case outlook is for a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a prolonged recession and a loss of confidence. The scenario assumptions include no government assistance, stocks and oil would fall, and four mid-sized financial institutions and one private mortgage insurer would fail.


CMHC says without government intervention in such a scenario, its solvency and capitalization would be in question. Even with help, the agency says prices would fall 31.8 per cent and the unemployment rate would be 24.2 per cent.

In a U-shaped scenario, which involves a steep but short peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 7 per cent before recovery, it sees prices falling 33.9 per cent and an unemployment rate of 14.8 per cent.
老大不要耸人听闻,有黄仁儿坐镇,瑞鸡,巴臀,还会大涨!
 

ccc

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不是不可能。
 

ert0000

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腰斩太狠了。
我估摸着,根据社区和情况的不同,98折,88折,78折倒是大概率。极端情况68折或58折吧
 

Jay Wang

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腰斩太狠了。
我估摸着,根据社区和情况的不同,98折,88折,78折倒是大概率。极端情况68折或58折吧
108折,118折,138折,妥妥的
 

ottawa_tj

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到底今年什么时候才能开始降价啊,等着跟进买入呢!

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anner

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土豆会在再发钱的,放心吧。
 

cucapila

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AVU千万别客气
村里的爷们哭着喊着等了好几十年了
 
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